An aggregate sales model for consumer durables incorporating a time-varying mean replacement age

Forecasting category or industry sales is a vital component of a company's planning and control activities. Sales for most mature durable product categories are dominated by replacement purchases. Previous sales models which explicitly incorporate a component of sales due to replacement assume there is an age distribution for replacements of existing units which remains constant over time. However, there is evidence that changes in factors such as product reliability/durability, price, repair costs, scrapping values, styling and economic conditions will result in changes in the mean replacement age of units. This paper develops a model for such time-varying replacement behaviour and empirically tests it in the Australian automotive industry. Both longitudinal census data and the empirical analysis of the replacement sales model confirm that there has been a substantial increase in the average aggregate replacement age for motor vehicles over the past 20 years. Further, much of this variation could be explained by real price increases and a linear temporal trend. Consequently, the time-varying model significantly outperformed previous models both in terms of fitting and forecasting the sales data. Copyright (C) 2001 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

A zero-augmented gamma mixed model for longitudinal data with many zeros

In many occupational safety interventions, the objective is to reduce the injury incidence as well as the mean claims cost once injury has occurred. The claims cost data within a period typically contain a large proportion of zero observations (no claim). The distribution thus comprises a point mass at 0 mixed with a non-degenerate parametric component. Essentially, the likelihood function can be factorized into two orthogonal components. These two components relate respectively to the effect of covariates on the incidence of claims and the magnitude of claims, given that claims are made. Furthermore, the longitudinal nature of the intervention inherently imposes some correlation among the observations. This paper introduces a zero-augmented gamma random effects model for analysing longitudinal data with many zeros. Adopting the generalized linear mixed model (GLMM) approach reduces the original problem to the fitting of two independent GLMMs. The method is applied to evaluate the effectiveness of a workplace risk assessment teams program, trialled within the cleaning services of a Western Australian public hospital.

The interaction between technologies and society: Lessons learnt from 160 evolutionary years of online news services

In mapping the evolutionary process of online news and the socio-cultural factors determining this development, this paper has a dual purpose. First, in reworking the definition of “online communication”, it argues that despite its seemingly sudden emergence in the 1990s, the history of online news started right in the early days of the telegraphs and spread throughout the development of the telephone and the fax machine before becoming computer-based in the 1980s and Web-based in the 1990s. Second, merging macro-perspectives on the dynamic of media evolution by DeFleur and Ball-Rokeach (1989) and Winston (1998), the paper consolidates a critical point for thinking about new media development: that something technically feasible does not always mean that it will be socially accepted and/or demanded. From a producer-centric perspective, the birth and development of pre-Web online news forms have been more or less generated by the traditional media’s sometimes excessive hype about the power of new technologies. However, placing such an emphasis on technological potentials at the expense of their social conditions not only can be misleading but also can be detrimental to the development of new media, including the potential of today’s online news.

Gaze angle: a possible mechanism of visual stress in virtual reality headsets

It is known that some Virtual Reality (VR) head-mounted displays (HMDs) can cause temporary deficits in binocular vision. On the other hand, the precise mechanism by which visual stress occurs is unclear. This paper is concerned with a potential source of visual stress that has not been previously considered with regard to VR systems: inappropriate vertical gaze angle. As vertical gaze angle is raised or lowered the 'effort' required of the binocular system also changes. The extent to which changes in vertical gaze angle alter the demands placed upon the vergence eye movement system was explored. The results suggested that visual stress may depend, in part, on vertical gaze angle. The proximity of the display screens within an HMD means that a VR headset should be in the correct vertical location for any individual user. This factor may explain some previous empirical results and has important implications for headset design. Fortuitously, a reasonably simple solution exists.

Linking client and employee perceptions of the organization: A study of client satisfaction with health care services

Client satisfaction with health care sen ices has usually been researched in terms of socio-demographic and predispositional characteristics associated with the client. The present study included organizational characteristics as predictors of client satisfaction with health care services. Participants in the research were clients and employees of an Australian public-sector health care organization who responded to separate client and employee questionnaires. Hierarchical regression analyses indicated that, after controlling for a number of client characteristics, organizational characteristics, as perceived by employees, accounted for a significant proportion of additional variance in client satisfaction with health care services. Results of the present study provided some support for the proposition that employee perceptions of the working environment should be considered in a more comprehensive understanding of client satisfaction with health care services. Limitations of the study highlight practical difficulties in the assessment of client outcomes and methodological complexities in linking individual and organizational processes.

Moneyless business exchange - Practitioners' attitudes to business-to-business barter in Australia

In recent years, domestic business-to-business barter has become institutionalized as an alternative marketing exchange system in Australia, and elsewhere. This article reports the findings of a survey of 164 members of Australia's largest trade exchange, Bartercard There are few, if any, published empirical studies on this topic. This study is exploratory. Most firms surveyed are small firms in the services sectors. Although Bartercard has an extensive membership, trading within the system is limited with most members trading less than once per week and with barter transactions contributing less than 5% of their annual gross sales. The main benefits of membership include new customers and increased sales and networking opportunities. The main limitations include the limited functionality of the trade dollar limited trading opportunities, and practical trading difficulties. In selling, there appears to be no differential between the cash and trade prices, whereas trade dollars are discounted in purchasing. Participants acknowledge that business-to-business barter will remain and grow regardless of cyclical macroeconomic changes. (C) 1998 Elsevier Science Inc.

Tuberculosis and health sector reform: experience of integrating tuberculosis services into the district health system in rural South Africa

SETTING: Hlabisa health district, South Africa. OBJECTIVE: To describe the integration of a vertical tuberculosis control programme into an emerging 'horizontal' district health system, within the context of health sector reform. DESIGN: Descriptive account of the process of integration of the programme into the health system. RESULTS: A highly 'vertical' system of delivering tuberculosis treatment (with poor programme outcomes) was converted into a (horizontal' team, integrated within the district health system, that used available resources such as village clinics and community health workers, with improved programme outcomes. CONCLUSIONS: In some settings at least, integration of tuberculosis 'programmes' into the district health system as tuberculosis 'teams' is feasible, and may produce highly cost-effective outcomes.

Conservation farming projects in the Philippine uplands: Rhetoric and reality

The phenomenon of agricultural land degradation in the Philippine uplands has been regarded by scientists and policy-makers as a major environmental and rural development problem. Numerous conservation farming projects have been implemented in the past two decades to address this problem, apparently with little success. Most of these projects have espoused the currently fashionable principles of community-based sustainable development. This paper examines case histories of three completed upland conservation projects. The aim is to compare the rhetoric of project documents and evaluations with the reality of on-going land management practices as seen from the perspective of the land managers themselves. (C) 2000 Elsevier Science Ltd. All rights reserved.