Using intervention time series analyses to assess the effects of imperfectly identifiable natural events: A general method and example

BACKGROUND: Intervention time series analysis (ITSA) is an important method for analysing the effect of sudden events on time series data. ITSA methods are quasi-experimental in nature and the validity of modelling with these methods depends upon assumptions about the timing of the intervention and the response of the process to it. METHOD: This paper describes how to apply ITSA to analyse the impact of unplanned events on time series when the timing of the event is not accurately known, and so the problems of ITSA methods are magnified by uncertainty in the point of onset of the unplanned intervention. RESULTS: The methods are illustrated using the example of the Australian Heroin Shortage of 2001, which provided an opportunity to study the health and social consequences of an abrupt change in heroin availability in an environment of widespread harm reduction measures. CONCLUSION: Application of these methods enables valuable insights about the consequences of unplanned and poorly identified interventions while minimising the risk of spurious results.

Sentinel node biopsy for breast cancer: Using local results for estimation of risk to the patient

Background: Sentinel node biopsy (SNB) is being increasingly used but its place outside randomized trials has not yet been established. Methods: The first 114 sentinel node (SN) biopsies performed for breast cancer at the Princess Alexandra Hospital from March 1999 to June 2001 are presented. In 111 cases axillary dissection was also performed, allowing the accuracy of the technique to be assessed. A standard combination of preoperative lymphoscintigraphy, intraoperative gamma probe and injection of blue dye was used in most cases. Results are discussed in relation to the risk and potential consequences of understaging. Results: Where both probe and dye were used, the SN was identified in 90% of patients. A significant number of patients were treated in two stages and the technique was no less effective in patients who had SNB performed at a second operation after the primary tumour had already been removed. The interval from radioisotope injection to operation was very wide (between 2 and 22 h) and did not affect the outcome. Nodal metastases were present in 42 patients in whom an SN was found, and in 40 of these the SN was positive, giving a false negative rate of 4.8% (2/42), with the overall percentage of patients understaged being 2%. For this particular group as a whole, the increased risk of death due to systemic therapy being withheld as a consequence of understaging (if SNB alone had been employed) is estimated at less than 1/500. The risk for individuals will vary depending on other features of the particular primary tumour. Conclusion: For patients who elect to have the axilla staged using SNB alone, the risk and consequences of understaging need to be discussed. These risks can be estimated by allowing for the specific surgeon's false negative rate for the technique, and considering the likelihood of nodal metastases for a given tumour. There appears to be no disadvantage with performing SNB at a second operation after the primary tumour has already been removed. Clearly, for a large number of patients, SNB alone will be safe, but ideally participation in randomized trials should continue to be encouraged.

Canine intra-nasal squamous cell carcinoma treated with chemotherapy prior to surgical resection

A 12-year-old male castrated Samoyed dog was presented with left-sided epistaxis and sneezing. Diagnostic procedures included haematology and biochemistry testing, thoracic radiography, fine needle aspiration of regional lymph nodes, CT, rhinoscopy, incisional biopsy and histopathology. Squamous cell carcinoma of the rostral nasal cavity was diagnosed, with no evidence of metastatic disease. External beam radiation was not an accessible treatment option. Complete surgical resection of the tumour would have required a larger, more disfiguring resection of nasal planum and maxilla than the owner was prepared to accept and may have been associated with an unacceptable morbidity. As an alternative, the extent of disease was reduced using a combination of carboplatin, doxorubicin and piroxicam chemotherapy. This allowed a less extensive nasal planum removal to be performed to remove residual disease with clean margins. The patient achieved a 14 month disease free interval from the time of surgery to the time of local recurrence. Survival time from diagnosis to eventual euthanasia for progressive local disease was 18 months.

Participation in the RACS sentinel node biopsy versus axillary clearance trial

Background: The Royal Australasian College of Surgeons (RACS) SNAC trial is a randomized controlled trial of sentinel node biopsy (SNB) versus axillary clearance (AC). It opened in May 2001 and is recruiting rapidly with good acceptance by consumers. Methods: A study of eligibility and treatment choices was conducted between November 2001 and September 2002 for women presenting with early breast cancer to 10 centres participating in the trial. Results: More than half of the 622 women (54%) were ineligible for trial entry because they had large (> 3 cm) or multicentric cancers. Participation was offered to 92% of eligible women and was taken up by 63%. The commonest reason for not participating was the desire to choose treatment rather than have it randomly allocated. Despite this there is a great acceptance of clinical trials because very few women (4% of those eligible) gave 'lack of interest in clinical trials' as the reason for non-participation. Few women who declined trial participation chose to have SNB alone (4.5% of those eligible). Conclusion: Sentinel node biopsy may become the standard of care for managing small breast cancers, but a significant number of patients will still require or choose axillary dissection. Results from large randomized trials are needed to determine the relative benefits and harms of SNB compared with AC. Surgeons must carefully discuss options for management with their patients.

Atypical prostatic glandular proliferations on needle biopsy - Diagnostic implications, use of immunohistochemistry, and clinical significance

In recent times, PSA screening and a substantial increase in prostate needle biopsies have not only resulted in detection of minute foci of cancer but have also very likely resulted in increased detection of atypical glandular proliferations. Not uncommonly, there are only a limited number of atypical glands in these biopsies, and these require careful evaluation to enable an accurate diagnosis. We describe diagnostic implications, use of immunohistochemistry, and clinical significance of these lesions. Foci of atypical glands, also labeled atypical small acinar proliferation of uncertain significance, have features suspicious for but not diagnostic of cancer. Atypical foci include a broad group of lesions of differing clinical significance. These include benign, small acinar proliferations mimicking prostate cancer and atypical glandular proliferations suspicious for carcinoma. Definite diagnosis requires accurate histopathologic assessment and judicious use of immunohistochemistry. Patients with atypical glands on prostate needle biopsy have a high risk for harboring cancer and therefore have an increased risk for having cancer detected in subsequent biopsies.