The consistency of extinction risk classification protocols

Systematic protocols that use decision rules or scores arc, seen to improve consistency and transparency in classifying the conservation status of species. When applying these protocols, assessors are typically required to decide on estimates for attributes That are inherently uncertain, Input data and resulting classifications are usually treated as though they arc, exact and hence without operator error We investigated the impact of data interpretation on the consistency of protocols of extinction risk classifications and diagnosed causes of discrepancies when they occurred. We tested three widely used systematic classification protocols employed by the World Conservation Union, NatureServe, and the Florida Fish and Wildlife Conservation Commission. We provided 18 assessors with identical information for 13 different species to infer estimates for each of the required parameters for the three protocols. The threat classification of several of the species varied from low risk to high risk, depending on who did the assessment. This occurred across the three Protocols investigated. Assessors tended to agree on their placement of species in the highest (50-70%) and lowest risk categories (20-40%), but There was poor agreement on which species should be placed in the intermediate categories, Furthermore, the correspondence between The three classification methods was unpredictable, with large variation among assessors. These results highlight the importance of peer review and consensus among multiple assessors in species classifications and the need to be cautious with assessments carried out 4), a single assessor Greater consistency among assessors requires wide use of training manuals and formal methods for estimating parameters that allow uncertainties to be represented, carried through chains of calculations, and reported transparently.

Extrinsic versus intrinsic factors in the decline and extinction of Australian marsupials

Recent attempts to explain the susceptibility of vertebrates to declines worldwide have largely focused on intrinsic factors such as body size, reproductive potential, ecological specialization, geographical range and phylogenetic longevity. Here, we use a database of 145 Australian marsupial species to test the effects of both intrinsic and extrinsic factors in a multivariate comparative approach. We model five intrinsic (body size, habitat specialization, diet, reproductive rate and range size) and four extrinsic (climate and range overlap with introduced foxes, sheep and rabbits) factors. We use quantitative measures of geographical range contraction as indices of decline. We also develop a new modelling approach of phylogenetically independent contrasts combined with imputation of missing values to deal simultaneously with phylogenetic structuring and missing data. One extrinsic variable-geographical range overlap with sheep-was the only consistent predictor of declines. Habitat specialization was independently but less consistently associated with declines. This suggests that extrinsic factors largely determine interspecific variation in extinction risk among Australian marsupials, and that the intrinsic factors that are consistently associated with extinction risk in other vertebrates are less important in this group. We conclude that recent anthropogenic changes have been profound enough to affect species on a continent-wide scale, regardless of their intrinsic biology.

Is affective learning really resistant to extinction? Stimulus ratings and affective priming give different answers

Affective learning, the learning of likes and dislikes, is proposed to differ from signal learning, the learning of relationships between events. However, affective learning research varies in the methodology used, and in addition, researchers concerned primarily with affective learning tend to use different paradigms from those concerned with signal learning. The current research used an affective priming task in addition to verbal ratings to assess changes in the valence of neutral geometric shapes in an aversive differential conditioning procedure. After acquisition, affective learning was present as indexed by ratings and affective priming, whereas after extinction, affective learning remained significant only in the ratings. This study suggests that different measures of affective learning may be differentially sensitive to valence, which has implications for studies that employ verbal ratings as the sole measure of affective learning. Moreover, there is no evidence from the current study that affective learning differs from signal learning.

Aquisition and extinction of two characteristics consistent with fear relevance

Fear relevance, the potential of a stimulus to become quickly associated with fear, is a characteristic assumed to have an evolutionary basis and to result in preferential processing. Previous research has shown that fear relevant stimuli share a number of characteristics, negative valence and preferential identification in a visual search task, for instance. The present research examined whether these two characteristics can be acquired by non-fear relevant stimuli (geometric shapes) as a result of Pavlovian fear conditioning. Two experiments employed an aversive learning paradigm with geometric shape CSs and a shock US, with stimulus ratings, affective priming and visual search performance assessed before and after acquisition and after extinction. Differential electrodermal responses, larger during CS1 than CS, were present during acquisition but not during extinction. Affective priming results suggest that the CS1 acquired negative valence during acquisition, which was lost during extinction. However, negative valence as indexed by more negative ratings for CS1 than for CS shapes seemed to survive extinction. Preferential attentional processing as indexed by faster detection of CS1 among CS shapes than vice versa on the visual search task also remained. The current research confirmed that characteristics of fear relevant stimuli can be acquired in an aversive learning episode and that they may be extinguished. This supports the proposal that fear relevance may be malleable through learning.

Extinction of affective learning: No evidence for dual process accounts of human learning

The acquisition and extinction of affective valence to neutral geometrical shape conditional stimuli was investigated in three experiments. Experiment 1 employed a differential conditioning procedure with aversive shock USs. Differential electrodermal responding was evident during acquisition and lost during extinction. As indexed by verbal ratings, the CS1 acquired negative valence during acquisition,which was reduced after extinction. Affective priming, a reaction time based demand free measure of stimulus valence, failed to provide evidence for affective learning. Experiment 2 employed pictures of happy and angry faces as USs.Valence ratings after acquisitionweremore positive for theCS paired with happy faces (CS-H) and less positive for the CS paired with angry faces (CS-A) than during baseline. Extinction training reduced the extent of acquired valence significantly for both CSs, however, ratings of the CS-A remained different from baseline. Affective priming confirmed these results yielding differences between CS-A and CS-H after acquisition for pleasant and unpleasant targets, but for pleasant targets only after extinction. Experiment 3 replicated the design of Experiment 2, but presented the US pictures backwardly masked. Neither rating nor affective priming measures yielded any evidence for affective learning. The present results confirm across two different experimental procedures that, contrary to predictions from dual process accounts of human learning, affective learning is subject to extinction.

Comparing predictions of extinction risk using models and subjective judgement

Models of population dynamics are commonly used to predict risks in ecology, particularly risks of population decline. There is often considerable uncertainty associated with these predictions. However, alternatives to predictions based on population models have not been assessed. We used simulation models of hypothetical species to generate the kinds of data that might typically be available to ecologists and then invited other researchers to predict risks of population declines using these data. The accuracy of the predictions was assessed by comparison with the forecasts of the original model. The researchers used either population models or subjective judgement to make their predictions. Predictions made using models were only slightly more accurate than subjective judgements of risk. However, predictions using models tended to be unbiased, while subjective judgements were biased towards over-estimation. Psychology literature suggests that the bias of subjective judgements is likely to vary somewhat unpredictably among people, depending on their stake in the outcome. This will make subjective predictions more uncertain and less transparent than those based on models. (C) 2004 Elsevier SAS. All rights reserved.

Body size and risk of extinction in Australian mammals

The link between body size and risk of extinction has been the focus of much recent attention. For Australian terrestrial mammals this link is of particular interest because it is widely believed that species in the intermediate size range of 35-5500 g (the critical weight range) have been the most prone to recent extinction. But the relationship between body size and extinction risk in Australian mammals has never been subject to a robust statistical analysis. Using a combination of randomization tests and phylogenetic comparative analyses, we found that Australian mammal extinctions and declines have been nonrandom with respect to body size, but we reject the hypothesis of a critical weight range at intermediate sizes. Small species appear to be the least prone to extinction, but extinctions have not been significantly clustered around intermediate sizes. Our results suggest that hypotheses linking intermediate body size with high risk of extinction in Australian mammals are misguided and that the focus of future research should shift to explaining why the smallest species are the most resistant to extinction.

Effect of instructed extinction on verbal and autonomic indices of Pavlovian learning with fear-relevant and fear-irrelevant conditional stimuli

We investigated the effects of conditional stimulus fear-relevance and of instructed extinction on human Pavlovian conditioning as indexed by electrodermal responses and verbal ratings of conditional stimulus unpleasantness. Half of the participants (n = 64) were trained with pictures of snakes and spiders (fear-relevant) as conditional stimuli, whereas the others were trained with pictures of flowers and mushrooms (fear-irrelevant) in a differential aversive Pavlovian conditioning procedure. Half of the participants in each group were instructed after the completion of acquisition that no more unconditional stimuli were to be presented. Extinction of differential electrodermal responses required more trials after training with fear-relevant pictures. Moreover, there was some evidence that verbal instructions did not affect extinction of second interval electrodermal responses to fear-relevant pictures. However, neither fear-relevance nor instructions affected the changes in rated conditional stimulus pleasantness. This dissociation across measures is interpreted as reflecting renewal of Pavlovian learning.

Biological determinants of extinction risk: why are smaller species less vulnerable?

It is becoming increasingly clear that species of smaller body size tend to be less vulnerable to contemporary extinction threats than larger species, but few studies have examined the mechanisms underlying this pattern. In this paper, data for the Australian terrestrial mammal fauna are used to ask whether higher reproductive output or smaller home ranges can explain the reduced extinction risk of smaller species. Extinct and endangered species do indeed have smaller litters and larger home ranges for their body size than expected under a null model. In multiple regressions, however, only litter size is a significant predictor of extinction risk once body size and phylogeny are controlled for. Larger litters contribute to fast population growth, and are probably part of the reason that smaller species are less extinction-prone. The effect of litter size varies between the mesic coastal regions and the and interior of Australia, indicating that the environment a species inhabits mediates the effect of biology on extinction risk. These results suggest that predicting extinction risk from biological traits is likely to be a complex task which must consider explicitly interactions between biology and environment.

Protocols for listing threatened species can forecast extinction

Risk-ranking protocols are used widely to classify the conservation status of the world's species. Here we report on the first empirical assessment of their reliability by using a retrospective study of 18 pairs of bird and mammal species (one species extinct and the other extant) with eight different assessors. The performance of individual assessors varied substantially, but performance was improved by incorporating uncertainty in parameter estimates and consensus among the assessors. When this was done, the ranks from the protocols were consistent with the extinction outcome in 70-80% of pairs and there were mismatches in only 10-20% of cases. This performance was similar to the subjective judgements of the assessors after they had estimated the range and population parameters required by the protocols, and better than any single parameter. When used to inform subjective judgement, the protocols therefore offer a means of reducing unpredictable biases that may be associated with expert input and have the advantage of making the logic behind assessments explicit. We conclude that the protocols are useful for forecasting extinctions, although they are prone to some errors that have implications for conservation. Some level of error is to be expected, however, given the influence of chance on extinction. The performance of risk assessment protocols may be improved by providing training in the application of the protocols, incorporating uncertainty in parameter estimates and using consensus among multiple assessors, including some who are experts in the application of the protocols. Continued testing and refinement of the protocols may help to provide better absolute estimates of risk, particularly by re-evaluating how the protocols accommodate missing data.

Extinction times for a general birth, death and catastrophe process

The birth, death and catastrophe process is an extension of the birth-death process that incorporates the possibility of reductions in population of arbitrary size. We will consider a general form of this model in which the transition rates are allowed to depend on the current population size in an arbitrary manner. The linear case, where the transition rates are proportional to current population size, has been studied extensively. In particular, extinction probabilities, the expected time to extinction, and the distribution of the population size conditional on nonextinction (the quasi-stationary distribution) have all been evaluated explicitly. However, whilst these characteristics are of interest in the modelling and management of populations, processes with linear rate coefficients represent only a very limited class of models. We address this limitation by allowing for a wider range of catastrophic events. Despite this generalisation, explicit expressions can still be found for the expected extinction times.