Prospective independent validation of APACHE III models in an Australian tertiary adult intensive care unit

Evaluation of the performance of the APACHE III (Acute Physiology and Chronic Health Evaluation) ICU (intensive care unit) and hospital mortality models at the Princess Alexandra Hospital, Brisbane is reported. Prospective collection of demographic, diagnostic, physiological, laboratory, admission and discharge data of 5681 consecutive eligible admissions (1 January 1995 to 1 January 2000) was conducted at the Princess Alexandra Hospital, a metropolitan Australian tertiary referral medical/surgical adult ICU. ROC (receiver operating characteristic) curve areas for the APACHE III ICU mortality and hospital mortality models demonstrated excellent discrimination. Observed ICU mortality (9.1%) was significantly overestimated by the APACHE III model adjusted for hospital characteristics (10.1%), but did not significantly differ from the prediction of the generic APACHE III model (8.6%). In contrast, observed hospital mortality (14.8%) agreed well with the prediction of the APACHE III model adjusted for hospital characteristics (14.6%), but was significantly underestimated by the unadjusted APACHE III model (13.2%). Calibration curves and goodness-of-fit analysis using Hosmer-Lemeshow statistics, demonstrated that calibration was good with the unadjusted APACHE III ICU mortality model, and the APACHE III hospital mortality model adjusted for hospital characteristics. Post hoc analysis revealed a declining annual SMR (standardized mortality rate) during the study period. This trend was present in each of the non-surgical, emergency and elective surgical diagnostic groups, and the change was temporally related to increased specialist staffing levels. This study demonstrates that the APACHE III model performs well on independent assessment in an Australian hospital. Changes observed in annual SMR using such a validated model support an hypothesis of improved survival outcomes 1995-1999.

Reduced Red Cell 2,3-Diphosphoglycerate Concentrations in Critical Illness without Decreased In Vivo P50

We investigated whether red cell 2,3-diphosphoglycerate (2,3-DPG) concentrations are reduced in critical illness, whether acidaemia, hypophosphataemia or anaemia influence 2,3-DPG, and whether there is any net effect on in vivo P50. Twenty healthy, non-smoking, male volunteers were compared with 20 male intensive care patients with APACHE 2 scores > 20 on the preceding day. Those transfused in this time were excluded. Venous red cell 2,3-DPG concentrations were measured in both groups. In the patient group, routine multichannel biochemical profile and arterial blood gas analysis were also performed and in vivo P50 calculated. The mean 2,3-DPG concentration was significantly lower in the patient group than in the controls (4.2 +/-1.3 mmoll/l vs 4.9 +/-0.5 mmol/l, P=0.016). The patients were well oxygenated (lowest arterial PO2=75 mm Hg) and showed a tendency to acidaemia (median pH 7.37, range 7.06 to 7.48) and anaemia (median haemoglobin concentration 113 g/l, range 89 to 154 g/l). By linear regression of patient data, pH had a significant effect on 2,3-DPG concentrations (r=0.6, P=0.011). Haemoglobin and phosphate concentrations did not, but there were few abnormal phosphate values. There was no correlation between 2,3-DPG concentrations and in vivo P50 (r(2) less than or equal to 0.08). We conclude that 2,3-DPG concentrations were reduced in a broad group of critically ill patients. Although this would normally reduce the P50, the reduction was primarily linked with acidaemia, which increases the P50. Overall, there was no net effect on the P50 and thus no affinity-related decrease in tissue oxygenation.