Events in Indonesia: exploring the limits to formal tourism trends forecasting methods in complex crisis situations

The desire to know the future is as old as humanity. For the tourism industry the demand for accurate foretelling of the future course of events is a task that consumes considerable energy and is of great significance to investors. This paper examines the issue of forecasting by comparing forecasts of inbound tourism made prior to the political and economic crises that engulfed Indonesia from 1997 onwards with actual arrival figures. The paper finds that current methods of forecasting are not able to cope with unexpected crises and other disasters and that alternative methods need to be examined including scenarios, political risk and application of chaos theory. The paper outlines a framework for classifying shocks according to a scale of severity, probability, type of event, level of certainty and suggested forecasting tools for each scale of shock. (C) 2003 Elsevier Science Ltd. All rights reserved.

Small-scale randomized controlled trials need more powerful methods of mediational analysis than the Baron-Kenny method

Objective: To devise more-effective physical activity interventions, the mediating mechanisms yielding behavioral change need to be identified. The Baron-Kenny method is most commonly used. but has low statistical power and May not identify mechanisms of behavioral change in small-to-medium size Studies. More powerful statistical tests are available, Study Design and Setting: Inactive adults (N = 52) were randomized to either a print or a print-plus-telephone intervention. Walking and exercise-related social support Were assessed at baseline, after file intervention, and 4 weeks later. The Baron-Kenny and three alternative methods of mediational analysis (Freedman-Schatzkin; MacKinnon et al.: bootstrap method) were used to examine the effects of social support on initial behavior change and maintenance. Results: A significant mediational effect of social support on initial behavior change was indicated by the MacKinnon et al., bootstrap. and. marginally. Freedman-Schatzkin methods, but not by the Baron-Kenny method. No significant mediational effecl of social support on maintenance of walking was found. Conclusions: Methodologically rigorous intervention studies to identify mediators of change in physical activity are costly and labor intensive, and may not be feasible with large samples. The Use of statistically powerful tests of mediational effects in small-scale studies can inform the development of more effective interventions. (C) 2006 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

An economic evaluation of plasma production via erythroplasmapheresis and whole blood collection

This paper presents cost-effectiveness analyses (CEAs) of plasma collection via two alternative methods: whole blood collection (WBC) and erythroplasmapheresis collection (EPC). The objective of the study is to provide an answer to the question 'What is the least-cost method of plasma production'. This question is answered, both from the viewpoint of the blood collection agency (using financial CEA) and from that of 'society' as a whole (using economic CEA). We employ detailed financial data and economic survey data for collections made by a blood collection agency and to WBC and EPC donors in Brisbane, Australia. The results indicate that, despite the superior yield provided by EPC, WBC is actually more cost-effective. This result is robust to thorough sensitivity analysis and arises regardless of whether an economic or financial perspective is taken. We conclude that, ceteris paribus, the cost of recruiting new plasma donors would need to be quite substantial for marginal investments in EPC to be considered cost-effective. Crown Copyright (C) 2002 Published by Elsevier Science Ltd. All rights reserved.

Alternatives for parallel Krylov subspace basis computation

Numerical methods related to Krylov subspaces are widely used in large sparse numerical linear algebra. Vectors in these subspaces are manipulated via their representation onto orthonormal bases. Nowadays, on serial computers, the method of Arnoldi is considered as a reliable technique for constructing such bases. However, although easily parallelizable, this technique is not as scalable as expected for communications. In this work we examine alternative methods aimed at overcoming this drawback. Since they retrieve upon completion the same information as Arnoldi's algorithm does, they enable us to design a wide family of stable and scalable Krylov approximation methods for various parallel environments. We present timing results obtained from their implementation on two distributed-memory multiprocessor supercomputers: the Intel Paragon and the IBM Scalable POWERparallel SP2. (C) 1997 by John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Comparison of two population pharmacokinetic programs, NONMEM and P-PHARM, for tacrolimus

Objectives: To compare the population modelling programs NONMEM and P-PHARM during investigation of the pharmacokinetics of tacrolimus in paediatric liver-transplant recipients. Methods: Population pharmacokinetic analysis was performed using NONMEM and P-PHARM on retrospective data from 35 paediatric liver-transplant patients receiving tacrolimus therapy. The same data were presented to both programs. Maximum likelihood estimates were sought for apparent clearance (CL/F) and apparent volume of distribution (V/F). Covariates screened for influence on these parameters were weight, age, gender, post-operative day, days of tacrolimus therapy, transplant type, biliary reconstructive procedure, liver function tests, creatinine clearance, haematocrit, corticosteroid dose, and potential interacting drugs. Results: A satisfactory model was developed in both programs with a single categorical covariate - transplant type - providing stable parameter estimates and small, normally distributed (weighted) residuals. In NONMEM, the continuous covariates - age and liver function tests - improved modelling further. Mean parameter estimates were CL/F (whole liver) = 16.3 1/h, CL/F (cut-down liver) = 8.5 1/h and V/F = 565 1 in NONMEM, and CL/F = 8.3 1/h and V/F = 155 1 in P-PHARM. Individual Bayesian parameter estimates were CL/F (whole liver) = 17.9 +/- 8.8 1/h, CL/F (cutdown liver) = 11.6 +/- 18.8 1/h and V/F = 712 792 1 in NONMEM, and CL/F (whole liver) = 12.8 +/- 3.5 1/h, CL/F (cut-down liver) = 8.2 +/- 3.4 1/h and V/F = 221 1641 in P-PHARM. Marked interindividual kinetic variability (38-108%) and residual random error (approximately 3 ng/ml) were observed. P-PHARM was more user friendly and readily provided informative graphical presentation of results. NONMEM allowed a wider choice of errors for statistical modelling and coped better with complex covariate data sets. Conclusion: Results from parametric modelling programs can vary due to different algorithms employed to estimate parameters, alternative methods of covariate analysis and variations and limitations in the software itself.

General practitioner attitudes to case conferences: how can we increase participation and effectiveness?

Objectives: To identify general practitioners' views on the barriers to using case conferencing (as outlined in the Medical Benefits Schedule (MBS) Enhanced Primary Care package) and to develop a set of principles to encourage greater GP participation in case conferences. Design: Qualitative study, involving semistructured questions administered to focus groups of GPs, conducted between April and July 2001 as part of a broader study of case coordination in palliative care. Participants: 29 GPs from urban, regional, and rural areas of Queensland. Principal findings: Many of the GPs' work practices militated against participation in traditionally structured case conferences. GPs thought the range of MBS item numbers should be expanded to cover alternative methods of liaison (eg, phone consultations with other service providers). The onerous bureaucratic processes required to claim reimbursement were an additional disincentive. Conclusions: GPs would probably be more likely to participate in case conferences if they were initiated by specialist services and arranged more flexibly to suit GP work schedules.

A Review of the Environmental and Health Effects of Termiticides under Australian Conditions

There exists a major cost issue as regards termite damage to wooden structures. A factor in this cost has been the increasing trend towards slab-on-ground construction. Current literature has been reviewed in relation to concerns about the possible public/environmental health consequences of the repeated use of termiticides in large quantities. The previous, current and projected future use patterns of termiticides are reviewed in the context of techniques appropriate for termite control and treatment priorities. The phasing out of organochlorine termiticides in Australia was undertaken to minimise impact of these substances on the environment and to a lesser extent on public health. These persistent chemicals were replaced by substances with high activity but relatively low persistence in the soil. There has also been an increase in the use of alternative methods (e.g. physical barriers) for the control of termites. The transition away from organochlorine termiticides has led to a realisation that significant information gaps exist with regard to replacement chemicals and other technologies. Although relatively persistent, the organochlorine chemicals have a limited lifespan in soils. Their concentrations are gradually attenuated by processes such as transport away from the point of application and biodegradation. Wooden structures originally treated with these substances will, with the passing of time, be at risk of termite infestation. The only available option is re-treatment with chemicals currently registered for termite control. Thus, there are likely to be substantial future increases associated with the cost of re-treatment and repairs of older slab-on-ground dwellings. More information is required on Australian termite biology, taxonomy and ecology. The risks of termite infestation need to be evaluated, both locally and nationally so that susceptible or high risk areas, structures and building types can be identified and preventive measures taken in terms of design and construction. Building regulations and designs need to be able to reduce or eliminate high-risk housing; and eliminate or reduce conditions that are attractive to termites and/or facilitate termite infestation.

Functional-structural plant modelling using a combination of architectural analysis, L-systems and a canonical model of function

This paper presents a new method for producing a functional-structural plant model that simulates response to different growth conditions, yet does not require detailed knowledge of underlying physiology. The example used to present this method is the modelling of the mountain birch tree. This new functional-structural modelling approach is based on linking an L-system representation of the dynamic structure of the plant with a canonical mathematical model of plant function. Growth indicated by the canonical model is allocated to the structural model according to probabilistic growth rules, such as rules for the placement and length of new shoots, which were derived from an analysis of architectural data. The main advantage of the approach is that it is relatively simple compared to the prevalent process-based functional-structural plant models and does not require a detailed understanding of underlying physiological processes, yet it is able to capture important aspects of plant function and adaptability, unlike simple empirical models. This approach, combining canonical modelling, architectural analysis and L-systems, thus fills the important role of providing an intermediate level of abstraction between the two extremes of deeply mechanistic process-based modelling and purely empirical modelling. We also investigated the relative importance of various aspects of this integrated modelling approach by analysing the sensitivity of the standard birch model to a number of variations in its parameters, functions and algorithms. The results show that using light as the sole factor determining the structural location of new growth gives satisfactory results. Including the influence of additional regulating factors made little difference to global characteristics of the emergent architecture. Changing the form of the probability functions and using alternative methods for choosing the sites of new growth also had little effect. (c) 2004 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Sourcing the news: Teaching journalism students different approaches to sourcing practices

The experiences of a group of Australian university journalism students from diverse backgrounds are explored as they become involved in producing five editions of a new newspaper for the isolated community of Blackall in the Queensland Outback, 1500km north-west of Sydney. During this learning experience, non-traditional journalistic sourcing methods were trialled. This paper documents the exercise, compares the alternative methods with existing practices identified in the literature, and examines the effects and consequences of the exercise.

Acibenzolar-S-methyl and methyl jasmonate treatments of glasshouse-grown freesias suppress post-harvest petal specking caused by Botrytis cinerea

Compounds that activate host plant defence responses potentially offer socio-environmentally sound alternative methods for disease control. In a series of glasshouse trials over 2 years, pre-harvest sprays with acibenzolar-S-methyl (ASM) and methyl jasmonate (MeJA) were tested for suppression of post-harvest infection of cut Freesia hybrida L. flowers by Botrytis cinerea. For the ASM treatments, variability in reducing the incidence of B. cinerea disease was observed between years freesia varieties, incubation temperatures and ASM concentrations. In the first year, the greatest reductions in lesion numbers on ASM-treated var. 'Cote d'Azur' were recorded using 2.86 mM ASM. For three different post-harvest temperature regimes, the relative reductions in lesion numbers, compared to untreated controls, were 45% at 5 degrees C, 40% at 12 degrees C and 30% at 20 degrees C, respectively. In the second year, lesion numbers were most reduced using 1.43 mM ASM to treat freesia var. 'Dukaat' flowers. Here, the relative reductions were to 44% at 5 degrees C, 26% at 12 degrees C and 51% at 20 degrees C. MeJA treatments were, in general, more consistently effective than ASM treatments in reducing lesion numbers and lesion diameters on cut freesia flowers. MeJA-treated (0.2 mM) freesia flowers (var. 'Dukaat') incubated at 20 degrees C showed relative reductions of 62%, and 45% for lesion number and lesion diameter, respectively. The differing efficacy between ASM and MeJA treatments could be attributed to their differential abilities to induce the salicylic acid (SA)-mediated vs. the jasmonic acid (JA)-mediated host defence pathways, respectively.

Erosion/productivity modelling of maize farming in the Philippine uplands part II: Simulation of alternative farming methods

A version of the Agricultural Production Systems Simulator (APSIM) capable of simulating the key agronomic aspects of intercropping maize between legume shrub hedgerows was described and parameterised in the first paper of this series (Nelson et al., this issue). In this paper, APSIM is used to simulate maize yields and soil erosion from traditional open-field farming and hedgerow intercropping in the Philippine uplands. Two variants of open-field farming were simulated using APSIM, continuous and fallow, for comparison with intercropping maize between leguminous shrub hedgerows. Continuous open-field maize farming was predicted to be unsustainable in the long term, while fallow open-field farming was predicted to slow productivity decline by spreading the effect of erosion over a larger cropping area. Hedgerow intercropping was predicted to reduce erosion by maintaining soil surface cover during periods of intense rainfall, contributing to sustainable production of maize in the long term. In the third paper in this series, Nelson et al. (this issue) use cost-benefit analysis to compare the economic viability of hedgerow intercropping relative to traditional open-field farming of maize in relatively inaccessible upland areas. (C) 1998 Elsevier Science Ltd. All rights reserved.

Erosion/productivity modelling of maize farming in the Philippine uplands part III: Economic analysis of alternative farming methods

Two previous papers in this series (Nelson et al., this issue) described the use of the Agricultural Production Systems Simulator (APSIM) to simulate the effect of erosion on maize yields from open-field farming and hedgerow intercropping in the Philippine uplands. In this paper, maize yields simulated with APSIM are used to compare the economic viability of intercropping maize between leguminous shrub hedgerows with that of continuous and fallow open-field farming of maize. The analysis focuses on the economic incentives of upland farmers to adopt hedgerow intercropping, discussing farmers' planning horizons, access to credit and security of land tenure, as well as maize pricing in the Philippines. Insecure land tenure has limited the planning horizons of upland farmers, and high establishment costs reduce the economic viability of hedgerow intercropping relative to continuous and fallow open-field farming in the short term, In the long term, high discount rates and share-tenancy arrangements in which landlords do not contribute to establishment costs reduce the economic viability of hedgerow intercropping relative to fallow open-field farming, (C) 1998 Elsevier Science Ltd. All rights reserved.

Cost-benefit analysis of alternative forms of hedgerow intercropping in the Philippine uplands

Considerable resources have been expended promoting hedgerow intercropping with shrub legumes to farmers in the Philippine uplands. Despite the resources committed to research and extension, persistent adoption by farmers has been limited to low cost versions of the technology including natural vegetation and grass strips. In this paper, cost-benefit analysis is used to compare the economic returns from traditional open-field maize farming with returns from intercropping maize between leguminous shrub hedgerows, natural vegetation strips and grass strips. An erosion/productivity model, Soil Changes Under Agroforestry, was used to predict the effect of erosion on maize yields. Key informant surveys with experienced maize farmers were used to derive production budgets for the alternative farming methods. The economic incentives revealed by the cost-benefit analysis help to explain the adoption of maize farming methods in the Philippine uplands. Open-field farming without hedgerows has been by far the most popular method of maize production, often with two or more fields cropped in rotation. There is little persistent adoption of hedgerow intercropping with shrub legumes because sustained maize yields are not realised rapidly enough to compensate farmers for establishment and maintenance costs. Natural vegetation and grass strips are more attractive to farmers because of lower establishment costs, and provide intermediate steps to adoption. Rural finance, commodity pricing and agrarian reform policies influence the incentives for maize farmers in the Philippine uplands to adopt and maintain hedgerow intercropping.

Acute intermittent porphyria: alternative splicing of hydroxymethylbilane synthase mRNA excludes exons 3 and 12

The hydroxymethylbilane synthase (HMBS) mRNAs from 44 control individuals and 30 patients suffering from acute intermittent porphyria (AIP), were screened for length differences by reverse transcriptase polymerase chain reaction (RT-PCR) and any abnormalities were characterized by direct sequencing. Examination of the mRNAs extracted from the peripheral blood lymphocytes of the samples revealed varying degrees of alternative splicing, involving the removal of exons 3 and 12. Approximately 10-50% of the mRNA molecules were affected, despite the absence of genomic splice site mutations or any major deviance from consensus splice sequence values. The preliminary data obtained from this study suggest that this event is a normal occurrence in peripheral blood lymphocytes, and may not be associated with the molecular pathology responsible for AIP. (C) 1998 Academic Press Limited.

Methods for prediction of peptide binding to MHC molecules: A comparative study

Background: A variety of methods for prediction of peptide binding to major histocompatibility complex (MHC) have been proposed. These methods are based on binding motifs, binding matrices, hidden Markov models (HMM), or artificial neural networks (ANN). There has been little prior work on the comparative analysis of these methods. Materials and Methods: We performed a comparison of the performance of six methods applied to the prediction of two human MHC class I molecules, including binding matrices and motifs, ANNs, and HMMs. Results: The selection of the optimal prediction method depends on the amount of available data (the number of peptides of known binding affinity to the MHC molecule of interest), the biases in the data set and the intended purpose of the prediction (screening of a single protein versus mass screening). When little or no peptide data are available, binding motifs are the most useful alternative to random guessing or use of a complete overlapping set of peptides for selection of candidate binders. As the number of known peptide binders increases, binding matrices and HMM become more useful predictors. ANN and HMM are the predictive methods of choice for MHC alleles with more than 100 known binding peptides. Conclusion: The ability of bioinformatic methods to reliably predict MHC binding peptides, and thereby potential T-cell epitopes, has major implications for clinical immunology, particularly in the area of vaccine design.