Strategic trade policy under uncertainty: Sufficient conditions for the optimality of ad valorem, specific and quadratic trade taxes

In most previous work on strategic trade policy the form of government intervention has been prescribed in advance. In this paper, we apply a solution concept discussed by Klemperer and Meyer for games in which the strategy space consists of the class of all (non state-contingent) price quantity schedules. We examine a series of specific assumptions on demand and supply conditions and derive the associated equilibrium trade policies. We derive welfare implications for all cases examined.

Paying for housework: Resources, demand and attitudes

A number of recent studies have suggested that households in western countries are increasingly turning to paid household help to perform a range of domestic tasks formerly carried out by women at home. But while expenditure on meal services, in the form of eating out or buying take out food has undoubtedly increased in recent years, the percentage of households that employ paid help with routine everyday housework activities, such as cleaning, appears to be comparatively low in many western countries. In Australia our data indicate that only 19 per cent of couple households pay someone to do domestic work, and only 11 per cent of couple households employ paid help with routine house cleaning. In this paper we use data from the Negotiating the Life Course survey, 1997 to investigate why some households use paid help with domestic labour while others do not. We examine hypotheses relating to level of resources, level of demand and gender role attitudes. We also examine attitudes about whether paid domestic help is viewed as an efficient strategy for dealing with domestic tasks. We find that although resources, demand and gender role attitudes provide the parameters within which employing household help is made possible or desirable, beliefs about the effectiveness of this strategy are also very significant. The paper concludes that domestic outsourcing is doing little to relieve women's double burden of paid and unpaid work.

Advances in application of climate prediction in agriculture

Agricultural ecosystems and their associated business and government systems are diverse and varied. They range from farms, to input supply businesses, to marketing and government policy systems, among others. These systems are dynamic and responsive to fluctuations in climate. Skill in climate prediction offers considerable opportunities to managers via its potential to realise system improvements (i.e. increased food production and profit and/or reduced risks). Realising these opportunities, however, is not straightforward as the forecasting skill is imperfect and approaches to applying the existing skill to management issues have not been developed and tested extensively. While there has been much written about impacts of climate variability, there has been relatively little done in relation to applying knowledge of climate predictions to modify actions ahead of likely impacts. However, a considerable body of effort in various parts of the world is now being focused on this issue of applying climate predictions to improve agricultural systems. In this paper, we outline the basis for climate prediction, with emphasis on the El Nino-Southern Oscillation phenomenon, and catalogue experiences at field, national and global scales in applying climate predictions to agriculture. These diverse experiences are synthesised to derive general lessons about approaches to applying climate prediction in agriculture. The case studies have been selected to represent a diversity of agricultural systems and scales of operation. They also represent the on-going activities of some of the key research and development groups in this field around the world. The case studies include applications at field/farm scale to dryland cropping systems in Australia, Zimbabwe, and Argentina. This spectrum covers resource-rich and resource-poor farming with motivations ranging from profit to food security. At national and global scale we consider possible applications of climate prediction in commodity forecasting (wheat in Australia) and examine implications on global wheat trade and price associated with global consequences of climate prediction. In cataloguing these experiences we note some general lessons. Foremost is the value of an interdisciplinary systems approach in connecting disciplinary Knowledge in a manner most suited to decision-makers. This approach often includes scenario analysis based oil simulation with credible models as a key aspect of the learning process. Interaction among researchers, analysts and decision-makers is vital in the development of effective applications all of the players learn. Issues associated with balance between information demand and supply as well as appreciation of awareness limitations of decision-makers, analysts, and scientists are highlighted. It is argued that understanding and communicating decision risks is one of the keys to successful applications of climate prediction. We consider that advances of the future will be made by better connecting agricultural scientists and practitioners with the science of climate prediction. Professions involved in decision making must take a proactive role in the development of climate forecasts if the design and use of climate predictions are to reach their full potential. (C) 2001 Elsevier Science Ltd. All rights reserved.

Modelling the behaviour of the new issue market

This paper analyses the time series behaviour of the initial public offering (IPO) market using an equilibrium model of demand and supply that incorporates the number of new issues, average underpricing, and general market conditions. Model predictions include the existence of serial correlation in both the number of new issues and the average level of underpricing, as well as interactions between these variables and the impact of general market conditions. The model is tested using 40 years of monthly IPO data. The empirical results are generally consistent with predictions.

Change in woolgrower profits from adopting staple strength-enhancing management strategies

Wool tenderness is a significant problem in Australia, especially in areas where sheep graze under highly seasonal conditions. In this study, a profit function model is specified, estimated and simulated to assess the economic impact of staple strength-enhancing research on the profits of Australian woolgrowers. The model is based on a number of fundamental characteristics of the Australian wool industry and the staple-strength enhancing technology being assessed. The model consists of a system of demand and supply equations that are specified in terms of effective, rather than actual, prices. The interrelationships between the inputs and outputs are allowed for in the model in a manner that is consistent with theoretical restrictions. The adoption of the new feed management strategy results in a 4.4% increase in the expected profits of Australian wool producers in the short-run, and a 2.2% increase in expected profits in the long-run.

Effect of training on the response of plasma vascular endothelial growth factor to exercise in patients with peripheral arterial disease

Expansion of the capillary network, or angiogenesis, occurs following endurance training. This process, which is reliant on the presence of VEGF (vascular endothelial growth factor), is an adaptation to a chronic mismatch between oxygen demand and supply. Patients with IC (intermittent claudication) experience pain during exercise associated with an inadequate oxygen delivery to the muscles. Therefore the aims of the present study were to examine the plasma VEGF response to acute exercise, and to establish whether exercise training alters this response in patients with IC. In Part A, blood was collected from patients with IC (n = 18) before and after (+ 20 and + 60 min post-exercise) a maximal walking test to determine the plasma VEGF response to acute exercise. VEGF was present in the plasma of patients (45.11 +/- 29.96 pg/ml) and was unchanged in response to acute exercise. Part B was a training study to determine whether exercise training altered the VEGF response to acute exercise. Patients were randomly assigned to a treatment group (TMT; n = 7) that completed 6 weeks of high-intensity treadmill training, or to a control group (CON; n = 6). All patients completed a maximal walking test before and after the intervention, with blood samples drawn as for Part A. Training had no effect on plasma VEGF at rest or in response to acute exercise, despite a significant increase in maximal walking time in the TMT group (915 + 533 to 1206 + 500 s; P = 0.009) following the intervention. The absence of a change in plasma VEGF may reflect altered VEGF binding at the endothelium, although this cannot be confirmed by the present data.

Referral patterns in a global store-and-forward telemedicine system

We examined the nature of the referral patterns in the email telemedicine network operated by the Swinfen Charitable Trust with a view to informing long-term resource planning. Over the first six years of operation, 62 hospitals from 19 countries registered with the Trust in order to be able to refer cases for specialist advice; 55 of these hospitals (89%) actually referred cases during this period. During the first six years of operation, nearly 1000 referrals were submitted and answered, from a wide range of specialty areas. Between July 2002 and March 2005 the referral rate rose from 127 to 318 cases per year. The median length of time required to provide a specialist's response was 2.3 days during the first 12 months and 1.8 days during the last 12 months. Five hospitals submitted cases for more than four years (together sending a total of 493 cases). Their activity data showed a trend to declining referral rates over the four-year period, which may represent successful knowledge transfer. There is some evidence that over the last three years the growth in demand has been exponential, while the growth in resources available (i.e. specialists) has been linear, a situation which cannot continue for very long before demand outstrips supply.

The attentional demands of preferred and non-preferred gait patterns

The purpose of this study was to determine the attentional demands of natural and imposed gait, as well as the attentional costs of transitions between the walking and running co-ordination patterns. Seven healthy young men and four healthy young women undertook an auditory probe reaction time task concurrently with self-selected gait (Experiment 1) and imposed walking and running (Experiment 2) at different speeds on a motor-driven treadmill. In Experiment 1, where participants were free to choose their own movement pattern to match the speed of travel of the treadmill, normal gait control was shown to have a significant attentional cost, and hence not be automatic in the classical sense. However, this attentional cost did not differ between the two gait modes or at the transition point. In Experiment 2, where participants were required to maintain specific gait modes regardless of the treadmill speed, the maintenance of walking at speeds normally associated with running was found to have an attentional cost whereas this was not the case for running at normal walking speeds. Collectively the findings support a model of gait control in which the normal switching between gait modes is determined with minimal attention demand and in which it is possible to sustain non-preferred gait modes although, in the case of walking, only at a significant attentional/cognitive cost. © 2002 Elsevier Science B.V. All rights reserved.

State sector reform and agriculture in China

China's state sector reform process is examined through the key sector of agriculture. A preview of aggregate statistics and broader reform measures indicate the declining role of the state. However, a systematic analysis of administrative, service and enterprise structures reveal the nuances of how the state has retained strong capacity to guide development of the agricultural sector. State and Party policy makers aim not only to support the livelihoods of hundreds of millions of farmers, but also to pursue agricultural modernization in the context of rapid industrialization. These goals are unlikely to be achieved through a wholesale transfer of functions to the private sector, so the state has maintained or developed new mechanisms of influence, particularly in the areas of service provision and enterprise development.

Post-traumatic amnesia: Consistency-of-recovery and duration-to-recovery following traumatic brain impairment

The aim of this research was to examine the nature and order of recovery of orientation and memory functioning during Post-Traumatic Amnesia (PTA) in relation to injury severity and PTA duration. The Westmead PTA Scale was used across consecutive testing days to assess the recovery of orientation and memory during PTA in 113 patients. Two new indices were examined: a Consistency-of-Recovery and a Duration-to-Recovery index. a predictable order of recovery was observed during PTA: orientation-to-person recovered sooner and more consistently than the following cluster; orientation-to-time, orientation-to-place, and the ability to remember a face and name. However, the type of memory functioning required for the recall face and name task recovered more consistently than that required for memorizing three pictures. An important overall finding was that the order-of-recovery'' of orientation and memory functioning was dependent upon both the elapsed days since injury, and the consistency of recovery. The newly developed indices were shown to be a valuable means of accounting for differences between groups in the elapsed days to recovery of orientation and memory. These indices also clearly increase the clinical utility of the Westmead PTA Scale and supply an objective means of charting (and potentially predicting) patients' recovery on the different components of orientation and memory throughout their period of hospitalization.

Zeolite/rock phosphate - a novel slow release phosphorus fertiliser for potted plant production

A glasshouse study was undertaken to determine if the zeolite mineral clinoptilolite from an Australian deposit in combination with rock phosphate (RP) could significantly enhance the uptake of P by sunflowers. The zeolite/RP combination was intended to act as an exchange-fertiliser, with Ca2+ exchanging onto the zeolite in response to plant uptake of nutrient cations (NH4+ or K) enhancing the dissolution of the RP. A reactive RP (Sechura) and a relatively non-reactive RP (Duchess) were examined. Zeolite was used in Ca2+-, K+- and NH4+-saturated forms at ratios of 3.5:1 and 7:1 with RP; Ca2+-zeolite was considered the control, with exchange-induced dissolution possible from K+-and NH4+-zeolite, The zeolite/RP mixture was applied as a vertical band adjacent to the sunflower seedling. In addition, N was supplied as urea in an effort to determine if RP dissolution resulted from H+ release by nitrification. Phosphorus supply from the zeolite/RP system was compared with an available P source (KH2PO4). The experiment clearly demonstrated greatly enhanced plant uptake of P from RP when applied in combination with NH4-zeolite, though the P uptake was lower than that from the soluble P source. The zeolite/RP interaction was much more effective with the reactive R-P than the non-reactive material, Within the NH4+-zeolite/RP band, root proliferation was greatly increased, as would be expected in an exchange-fertiliser system. The K+-zeolite system did not produce a significantly greater yield than the Ca2+-zeolite control, probably because adequate K+ supply from the basal application reduced uptake within the zeolite/RP band, thus reducing the extent of exchange-induced dissolution. Nevertheless, increased root proliferation within the band was observed, implying that exchange-induced dissolution may also be possible from this system. The zeolite/RP system offers the considerable advantage of P release in response to plant demand and is unique in this regard. (C) 2002 Elsevier Science B.V. All rights reserved.

Supply chain management as beyond operational efficiency

The orthodoxy of supply chain management (SCM) emphasises competitive advantage through increased operational efficiency and market responsiveness from production and distribution processes into the hands of consumers. It anticipates that future competition will be between chains rather than between firms. While well established in other industry sectors, the SCM concept is newly developed in the Australian agri-food sector. Critical review of the concept has identified key issues of power among channel members, processes of chain initiation and innovation, and the inability of SCM to offer a viable business strategy for some firms. Building on those insights, this paper examines the supply chain concept for horticulture. Horticultural products are characterised by perishability, heterogeneity and lags in production response to market signals. Producers’ profits are vulnerable to quantity, timing of supply and product specification. Many supply chains in smaller industries are loose, fragmented, interwoven, unstable and unique! Firms operating within these environments need an astute understanding of the chains, the hierarchy of channel members and their relative position. Effective business strategies – for individual firms and supply chains - need to be developed and redeveloped to accommodate the dynamic nature of horticulture. Two case studies are discussed as contributions to this early stage of the theoretical development of supply chain management. The SCM concept also has implications for horticultural researchers, involving a wider range of industry stakeholders, technical problems and research skills. As for business management, the usefulness of the concept will depend on its capacity to increase responsiveness to customers’ preferences and customer value.