Change in abundance of dugongs in Shark Bay, Ningaloo and Exmouth Gulf, Western Australia: evidence for large-scale migration

The third in a series of five-yearly aerial surveys for dugongs in Shark Bay, Ningaloo Reef and Exmouth Gulf was conducted in July 1999. The first two surveys provided evidence of an apparently stable population of dugongs, with similar to 1000 animals in each of Exmouth Gulf and Ningaloo Reef, and 10000 in Shark Bay. We report estimates of less than 200 for each of Exmouth Gulf and Ningaloo Reef and similar to 14000 for Shark Bay. This is an apparent overall increase in the dugong population over this whole region, but with a distributional shift of animals to the south. The most plausible hypothesis to account for a large component of this apparent population shift is that animals in Exmouth Gulf and Ningaloo Reef moved to Shark Bay, most likely after Tropical Cyclone Vance impacted available dugong forage in the northern habitat. Bias associated with survey estimate methodology, and normal changes in population demographics may also have contributed to the change. The movement of large numbers of dugongs over the scale we suggest has important management implications. First, such habitat-driven shifts in regional abundance will need to be incorporated in assessing the effectiveness of marine protected areas that aim to protect dugongs and their habitat. Second, in circumstances where aerial surveys are used to estimate relative trends in abundance of dugongs, animal movements of the type we propose could lead to errors in interpretation.

Introduced mammals in Australian rangelands: Future threats and the role of monitoring programmes in management strategies

In the present paper, we have provided an initial assessment of the current and future threats to biodiversity posed by introduced mammals (predators and herbivores) inhabiting the Australian rangelands, exploring trends in populations and options for management. Notably, rabbits have declined in recent years in the wake of rabbit haemorrhagic disease, populations of feral camels have increased dramatically and foxes appear to have moved northwards, thereby threatening native fauna within an expanded range. Following on, we developed a framework for monitoring the impacts of introduced mammals in the Australian rangelands. In doing so, we considered the key issues that needed to be considered in designing a monitoring programme for this purpose and critically evaluated the role of monitoring in pest animal management. Finally we have provided a brief inventory of current best-practice methods of estimating the abundance of introduced mammal populations in the Australian rangelands with some comments on new approaches and their potential applications.

Population monitoring for kangaroo management

In wildlife management, the program of monitoring will depend on the management objective. If the objective is damage mitigation, then ideally it is damage that should be monitored. Alternatively, population size (N) can be used as a surrogate for damage, but the relationship between N and damage obviously needs to be known. If the management objective is a sustainable harvest, then the system of monitoring will depend on the harvesting strategy. In general, the harvest strategy in all states has been to offer a quota that is a constant proportion of population size. This strategy has a number of advantages over alternative strategies, including a low risk of over- or underharvest in a stochastic environment, simplicity, robustness to bias in population estimates and allowing harvest policy to be proactive rather than reactive. However, the strategy requires an estimate of absolute population size that needs to be made regularly for a fluctuating population. Trends in population size and in various harvest statistics, while of interest, are secondary. This explains the large research effort in further developing accurate estimation methods for kangaroo populations. Direct monitoring on a large scale is costly. Aerial surveys are conducted annually at best, and precision of population estimates declines with the area over which estimates are made. Management at a fine scale (temporal or spatial) therefore requires other monitoring tools. Indirect monitoring through harvest statistics and habitat models, that include rainfall or a greenness index from satellite imagery, may prove useful.

Estimating the abundance of eastern grey kangaroos (Macropus giganteus) in south-eastern New South Wales, Australia

To provide an estimate of kangaroo numbers for harvest management, a survey was designed for an area of 29500 km(2) encompassing the agricultural and grazing lands of the Braidwood, Cooma, Goulburn, Gundagai and Yass Rural Lands Protection Board (RLPB) districts in south-east New South Wales. An aerial survey using a helicopter was considered more efficient than ground survey because of the size of the area, relatively high relief and dense tree cover, and the need for regular monitoring. Tree cover and landscape relief was used to stratify the five RLPB districts into areas of probable high, medium and low kangaroo density. Kangaroo density estimated from helicopter surveys conducted in the Northern Tablelands of New South Wales was used to suggest densities and thereby allocate survey effort in each stratum. A survey comprising 735 km of transect line was conducted in winter 2003 with a target precision of 20%. The survey returned an estimate of 286600 32300 eastern grey kangaroos for the whole of the proposed south-east New South Wales kangaroo-management zone. In 2004, a trial harvest of slightly less than 15% of this estimate was taken. Success of the trial will be determined by the impact of harvesting on the population's dynamics, by landholder and industry participation, and by the capacity to monitor population size, harvest offtake and compliance with regulations.