Market failure in long-term private health insurance markets: a proposed solution

Recently, private health insurance rates have declined in many countries. In places requiring community rating in their health insurance premiums, a major cause is age-based adverse selection. However, even in countries without community rating, a de facto type of partial community rating tends to occur. In this note, a modified version of Pauly et al.'s guaranteed renewability model, which addresses the problem of age-based adverse selection (Pauly et al., 1995) is presented. Their model is extended from three to 35 periods. Also, probabilities are allowed to increase by age for low-risk types using actual age-based probabilities. This extension of their work shows that private health insurance contracts available stray far from optimal contracts that deal with age-based adverse selection. This suggests that government actions to affect private insurance options are warranted.

Lifetime cover in private insurance markets

In the last few decades, private health insurance rates have declined in many countries. In countries and states with community rating, a major cause is adverse selection. In order to address age-based adverse selection, Australia has recently begun a novel approach which imposes stiff penalties for buying private insurance later in life, when expected costs are higher. In this paper, we analyze Australiarsquos Lifetime Cover in the context of a modified version of the Rothschild-Stiglitz insurance model (Rothschild and Stiglitz, 1976). We allow empirically-based probabilities to increase by age for low-risk types. The model highlights the shortcomings of the Australian plan. Based on empirically-based probabilities of illness, we predict that Lifetime Cover will not arrest adverse selection. The model has many policy implications for government regulation encouraging long-term health coverage.

Lifetime Subsidies in Australian Private Health Insurance Markets with Community Rating

This paper considers the problem of inducing low-risk individuals of all ages to buy private health insurance in Australia. Our proposed subsidy scheme improves upon the age-based penalty scheme under the current "Australian Lifetime Cover" (LTC) scheme. We generate an alternative subsidy profile that obviates adverse selection in private health insurance markets with mandated, age-based, community rating. Our proposal is novel in that we generate subsidies that are both risk- and age-specific, based upon actual risk probabilities. The approach we take may prove useful in other jurisdictions where the extant law mandates community rating in private health insurance markets. Furthermore, our approach is useful in jurisdictions that seek to maintain private insurance to complement existing universal public systems.

Serious adverse events in the Australian National Evaluation of Pharmacotherapies for Opioid Dependence (NEPOD)

Aims The study estimated serious adverse event (SAE) rates among entrants to pharmacotherapies for opioid dependence, during treatment and after leaving treatment. Design A longitudinal study based on data from 12 trials included in the Australian National Evaluation of Pharmacotherapies for Opioid Dependence (NEPOD). Participants and settings A total of 1.244 heroin users and methadone patients treated in hospital, community and GP settings. Intervention Six trials included detoxification; all included treatment with methadone, buprenorphine, levo-alpha-acetyl-methadol (LAAM) or naltrexone. Findings During 394 person-years of observation, 79 SAEs of 28 types were recorded. Naltrexone participants experienced 39 overdoses per 100 person-years after leaving treatment (44% occurred within 2 weeks after stopping naltrexone). This was eight times the rate recorded among participants who left agonist treatment. Rates of all other SAEs were similar during treatment versus out of treatment, for both naltrexone-treated and agonist-treated participants. Five deaths occurred, all among participants who had left treatment, at a rate of six per 100 person-years. Total SAE rates during naltrexone and agonist treatments were similar (20, 14 per 100 person-years, respectively). Total SAE and death rates observed among participants who had left treatment were three and 19 times the corresponding rates during treatment. Conclusions Individuals who leave pharmacotherapies for opioid dependence experience higher overdose and death rates compared with those in treatment. This may be due partly to a participant self-selection effect rather than entirely to pharmacotherapy being protective. Clinicians should alert naltrexone treatment patients in particular about heroin overdose risks. Duty of care may extend beyond cessation of dosing.

Geographic variation and positive selection on M7 lysin, an acrosomal sperm protein in mussels (Mytilus spp.)

Successful fertilization in free-spawning marine organisms depends on the interactions between genes expressed on the surfaces of eggs and sperm. Positive selection frequently characterizes the molecular evolution of such genes, raising the possibility that some common deterministic process drives the evolution of gamete recognition genes and may even be important for understanding the evolution of prezygotic isolation and speciation in the marine realm. One hypothesis is that gamete recognition genes are subject to selection for prezygotic isolation, namely reinforcement. In a previous study, positive selection on the gene coding for the acrosomal sperm protein M7 lysin was demonstrated among allopatric populations of mussels in the Mytilus edulis species group (M. edulis, M. galloprovincialis, and M. trossulus). Here, we expand sampling to include M7 lysin haplotypes from populations where mussel species are sympatric and hybridize to determine whether there is a pattern of reproductive character displacement, which would be consistent with reinforcement driving selection on this gene. We do not detect a strong pattern of reproductive character displacement; there are no unique haplotypes in sympatry nor is there consistently greater population structure in comparisons involving sympatric populations. One distinct group of haplotypes, however, is strongly affected by natural selection and this group of haplotypes is found within M. galloprovincialis populations throughout the Northern Hemisphere concurrent with haplotypes common to M. galloprovincialis and M. edulis. We suggest that balancing selection, perhaps resulting from sexual conflicts between sperm and eggs, maintains old allelic diversity within M. galloprovincialis.

Weibull model selection for reliability modelling

A large number of models have been derived from the two-parameter Weibull distribution and are referred to as Weibull models. They exhibit a wide range of shapes for the density and hazard functions, which makes them suitable for modelling complex failure data sets. The WPP and IWPP plot allows one to determine in a systematic manner if one or more of these models are suitable for modelling a given data set. This paper deals with this topic.

Positive selection on an acrosomal sperm protein, M7 lysin, in three species of the mussel genus Mytilus

Marine invertebrate sperm proteins are particularly interesting because they are characterized by positive selection and are likely to be involved in prezyogotic isolation and, thus, speciation. Here, we present the first survey of inter and intraspecific variation of a bivalve sperm protein among a group of species that regularly hybridize in nature. M7 lysin is found in sperm acrosomes of mussels and dissolves the egg vitelline coat, permitting fertilization. We sequenced multiple alleles of the mature protein-coding region of M7 lysin from allopatric populations of mussels in the Mytilus edulis species group (M. edulis, M. galloprovincialis, and M. trossulus). A significant McDonald-Kreitman test showed an excess of fixed amino acid replacing substitutions between species, consistent with positive selection. In addition, Kolmogorov-Smirnov tests showed significant heterogeneity in polymorphism to divergence ratios for both synonymous variation and combined synonymous and non-synonymous variation within M. galloprovincialis. These results indicate that there has been adaptive evolution at M7 lysin and, furthermore, shows that positive selection on sperm proteins can occur even when post-zygotic reproductive isolation is incomplete.

Selection bias in gene extraction on the basis of microarray gene-expression data

In the context of cancer diagnosis and treatment, we consider the problem of constructing an accurate prediction rule on the basis of a relatively small number of tumor tissue samples of known type containing the expression data on very many (possibly thousands) genes. Recently, results have been presented in the literature suggesting that it is possible to construct a prediction rule from only a few genes such that it has a negligible prediction error rate. However, in these results the test error or the leave-one-out cross-validated error is calculated without allowance for the selection bias. There is no allowance because the rule is either tested on tissue samples that were used in the first instance to select the genes being used in the rule or because the cross-validation of the rule is not external to the selection process; that is, gene selection is not performed in training the rule at each stage of the cross-validation process. We describe how in practice the selection bias can be assessed and corrected for by either performing a cross-validation or applying the bootstrap external to the selection process. We recommend using 10-fold rather than leave-one-out cross-validation, and concerning the bootstrap, we suggest using the so-called. 632+ bootstrap error estimate designed to handle overfitted prediction rules. Using two published data sets, we demonstrate that when correction is made for the selection bias, the cross-validated error is no longer zero for a subset of only a few genes.

A novel method for selection of chymotrypsin inhibitors from a phage peptide library

A novel screening strategy has been developed for the identification of alpha-chymotrypsin inhibitors from a phage peptide library. In this strategy, the standard affinity selection protocol was modified by adding a proteolytic cleavage period to avoid recovery of alpha-chymotrypsin substrates. After four cycles of selection and further activity assay, a group of related peptides were identified by DNA sequencing. These peptides share a consensus sequence motif as (S/T)RVPR(R/H). Then, a corresponding short peptide (Ac-ASRVPRRG-NH2) was synthesized chemically and proved to be an inhibitor of alpha-chymotrypsin. The present work provides a useful way for searching proteinase inhibitors without detailed knowledge of the molecular structure.

Selection of a strain of Aspergillus for the production of citric acid from pineapple waste in solid-state fermentation

Aspergillus foetidus ACR I 3996 (=FRR 3558) and three strains of Aspergillus niger ACM 4992 (=ATCC 9142), ACM 4993 (=ATCC 10577), ACM 4994 (=ATCC 12846) were compared for the production of citric acid from pineapple peel in solid-state fermentation. A. niger ACM 4992 produced the highest amount of citric acid, with a yield of 19.4 g of citric acid per 100 g of dry fermented pineapple waste under optimum conditions, representing a yield of 0.74 g citric acid/g sugar consumed. Optimal conditions were 65% (w/w) initial moisture content, 3% (v/w) methanol, 30 degrees C, an unadjusted initial pH of 3.4, a particle size of 2 mm and 5 ppm Fe2+. Citric acid production was best in flasks, with lower yields being obtained in tray and rotating drum bioreactors.

Anthropometric-based selection and sprint kayak training in children

A 12 week kayak training programme was evaluated in children who either had or did not have the anthropometric characteristics identified as being unique to senior elite sprint kayakers. Altogether, 234 male and female school children were screened to select 10 children with and 10 children without the identified key anthropometric characteristics. Before and after training, the children completed an all-out 2 min kayak ergometer simulation test; measures of oxygen consumption, plasma lactate and total work accomplished were recorded. In addition, a 500 m time trial was performed at weeks 3 and 12. The coaches were unaware which 20 children possessed those anthropometric characteristics deemed to favour development of kayak ability. All children improved in both the 2 min ergometer simulation test and 500 m time trial. However, boys who were selected according to favourable anthropometric characteristics showed greater improvement than those without such characteristics in the 2 min ergometer test only. In summary, in a small group of children selected according to anthropometric data unique to elite adult kayakers, 12 weeks of intensive kayak training did not influence the rate of improvement of on-water sprint kayak performance.

Adverse effects of cannabis

Cannabis is the most widely used illicit drug in many developed societies. Its health and psychological effects are not well understood and remain the subject of much debate, with opinions on its risks polarised along the lines of proponents' views on what its legal status should be. An unfortunate consequence of this polarisation of opinion has been the absence of any consensus on what health information the medical profession should give to patients who are users or potential users of cannabis. There is conflicting evidence about many of the effects of cannabis use, so we summarise the evidence on the most probable adverse health and psychological consequences of acute and chronic use. This uncertainty, however, should not prevent medical practitioners from advising patients about the most likely ill-effects of their cannabis use. Here we make some suggestions about the advice doctors can give to patients who use, or are contemplating the use, of this drug.

Effects of egg load on the host-selection behaviour of Helicoverpa armigera (Hubner) (Lepidoptera : Noctuidae)

We examined the effect of age-specific fecundity, mated status, and egg load on host-plant selection, by Helicoverpa armigera under laboratory conditions. The physiological state of a female moth (number of mature eggs produced) greatly influences her host-plant specificity and propensity to oviposit (oviposition motivation). Female moths were less discriminating against cowpea (a low-ranked host) relative to maize (a high-ranked host) as egg load increased. Similarly, increased egg load led to a greater propensity to oviposit on both cowpea and maize. Distribution of oviposition with age of mated females peaked shortly after mating and declined steadily thereafter until death. Most mated females (88%) carried only a single spermatophore, a few females (12%) contained two. The significance of these findings in relation to host-plant selection by H. armigera, and its management, are discussed.