An object-oriented neural network approach to short-term traffic forecasting

This paper discusses an object-oriented neural network model that was developed for predicting short-term traffic conditions on a section of the Pacific Highway between Brisbane and the Gold Coast in Queensland, Australia. The feasibility of this approach is demonstrated through a time-lag recurrent network (TLRN) which was developed for predicting speed data up to 15 minutes into the future. The results obtained indicate that the TLRN is capable of predicting speed up to 5 minutes into the future with a high degree of accuracy (90-94%). Similar models, which were developed for predicting freeway travel times on the same facility, were successful in predicting travel times up to 15 minutes into the future with a similar degree of accuracy (93-95%). These results represent substantial improvements on conventional model performance and clearly demonstrate the feasibility of using the object-oriented approach for short-term traffic prediction. (C) 2001 Elsevier Science B.V. All rights reserved.

Accounting for management costs in sensitivity analyses of matrix population models

Traditional sensitivity and elasticity analyses of matrix population models have been used to p inform management decisions, but they ignore the economic costs of manipulating vital rates. For exam le, the growth rate of a population is often most sensitive to changes in adult survival rate, but this does not mean that increasing that rate is the best option for managing the population because it may be much more expensive than other options. To explore how managers should optimize their manipulation of vital rates, we incorporated the cost of changing those rates into matrix population models. We derived analytic expressions for locations in parameter space where managers should shift between management of fecundity and survival, for the balance between fecundity and survival management at those boundaries, and for the allocation of management resources to sustain that optimal balance. For simple matrices, the optimal budget allocation can often be expressed as simple functions of vital rates and the relative costs of changing them. We applied our method to management of the Helmeted Honeyeater (Lichenostomus melanops cassidix; an endangered Australian bird) and the koala (Phascolarctos cinereus) as examples. Our method showed that cost-efficient management of the Helmeted Honeyeater should focus on increasing fecundity via nest protection, whereas optimal koala management should focus on manipulating both fecundity and survival simultaneously, These findings are contrary to the cost-negligent recommendations of elasticity analysis, which would suggest focusing on managing survival in both cases. A further investigation of Helmeted Honeyeater management options, based on an individual-based model incorporating density dependence, spatial structure, and environmental stochasticity, confirmed that fecundity management was the most cost-effective strategy. Our results demonstrate that decisions that ignore economic factors will reduce management efficiency.

The structure of middle management remuneration packages: An application to Australian mine managers

This paper investigates the composition of remuneration packages for middle managers and relates the structure of remuneration contracts to firm-specific attributes. A statutorily defined position in a single industry is studied as an example of middle management. This allows us to control for differences in task complexity across managers and industry-induced factors that could determine differences in remuneration contracts. Higher-risk firms are expected to pay their mine managers a greater proportion of variable salaries and market and/or accounting-based compensation than low-risk firms. Results indicate that high-risk firms pay a higher proportion of variable salaries and more compensation based on market and/or accounting performance.

Genotype-by-management interactions for grain yield and grain protein concentration of wheat

The magnitude of genotype-by-management (G x M) interactions for grain yield and grain protein concentration was examined in a multi-environment trial (MET) involving a diverse set of 272 advanced breeding lines from the Queensland wheat breeding program. The MET was structured as a series of management-regimes imposed at 3 sites for 2 years. The management-regimes were generated at each site-year as separate trials in which planting time, N fertiliser application rate, cropping history, and irrigation were manipulated. irrigation was used to simulate different rainfall regimes. From the combined analysis of variance, the G x M interaction variance components were found to be the largest source of G x E interaction variation for both grain yield (0.117 +/- 0.005 t(2) ha(-2); 49% of total G x E 0.238 +/- 0.028 t(2) ha(-2)) and grain protein concentration (0.445 +/- 0.020%(2); 82% of total G x E 0.546 +/- 0.057%(2)), and in both cases this source of variation was larger than the genotypic variance component (grain yield 0.068 +/- 0.014 t(2) ha(-2) and grain protein 0.203 +/- 0.026%(2)). The genotypic correlation between the traits varied considerably with management-regime, ranging from -0.98 to -0.31, with an estimate of 0.0 for one trial. Pattern analysis identified advanced breeding lines with improved grain yield and grain protein concentration relative to the cultivars Hartog, Sunco and Meteor. It is likely that a large component of the previously documented G x E interactions for grain yield of wheat in the northern grains region are in part a result of G x M interactions. The implications of the strong influence of G x M interactions for the conduct of wheat breeding METs in the northern region are discussed. (C) 2001 Elsevier Science B.V. All rights reserved.

Novel application of biological glue in the management of a complicated pneumothorax in cystic fibrosis

Spontaneous pneumothorax is a frequent complication in advanced lung disease of cystic fibrosis. We describe a case of a complicated pneumothorax in a 21-year old-woman with cystic fibrosis who was effectively treated with the application of biological glue via a minithoracotomy. (C) 2002 Wiley-Liss, Inc.

Earnings management in response to the introduction of the Australian gold tax

Earnings from gold mining in Australia remained tax-exempt for almost seven decades until January 1, 1991. In the early 1980s, rapid economic prosperity induced by escalated gold prices brought the Australian gold-mining industry under intense political scrutiny. Using a variant of the modified Jones model, this paper provides evidence of significant downward earnings management by Australian gold-mining firms, which is consistent with their attempts to mitigate political costs during the period from June 1985 to May 1988. In contrast, test of earnings management over a similar period in a control sample of Canadian gold-mining firms produced insignificant results. Further, empirical results are robust to several sensitivity tests performed. During the period from June 1988 to December 1990, the Australian firms were found to have engaged in economic earnings management. This is consistent with the sample firms' incentive of maximizing economic earnings immediately prior to the introduction of income tax on gold mining. The findings of this study help to understand the impact of earnings management on the efficient resource allocation in an economy. They also contribute toward understanding the linkage between regulation of accounting for special purposes and general-purpose financial. reporting.

Symptoms and diagnosis of borderline, early and advanced epithelial ovarian cancer

Objective. To document symptoms associated with borderline, early and advanced ovarian cancer and identify personal characteristics associated with early versus late diagnosis. Methods. Information concerning symptoms and diagnosis history was available from 811 women with ovarian cancer who took part in an Australian case–control study in the early 1990s. Women were classified into three groups for comparison based on their diagnosis: borderline, early (stage I–II) and advanced (stage III–IV) invasive cancer. Results. Sixteen percent of women with borderline tumors, 7% with early cancer and 4% with advanced cancer experienced no symptoms before diagnosis (P < 0.0001). Among women with symptoms, abdominal pain (44%) or swelling (39%) were most frequently reported; an abdominal mass (12%) and gynecological symptoms (12%) were less common. Compared to advanced stage cancer, women with early stage cancer were more likely to report an abdominal mass or urinary symptoms but less likely to report gastrointestinal problems or general malaise. General malaise and ‘other’ symptoms were least common in borderline disease. Older women, and those with higher parity or a family history of breast or ovarian cancer, were more likely to be diagnosed at an advanced stage of disease. Conclusions. Women who experience persistent or recurrent abdominal symptoms, particularly swelling and/or pain should be encouraged to seek medical attention and physicians should be alert to the possibility of ovarian cancer even in the absence of an abdominal mass. Further information about the prevalence of these symptoms in the general population is essential to assist physicians in patient management.

Undergraduate performance in accounting and business-based information technology

The pervasiveness of information systems (IS) in organizations mandates the need for high levels of IS skills. In recognition, professional bodies impose IS course requirements for accreditation. For both students and employers, performance in IS courses has become important. The tertiary entrance overall performance score accounted for 19.7 per cent of the variance in students' passing grades. Thereafter, proficiency in office automation software and programming accounted for 1.5 and 0.8 per cent of the variance, respectively. Students living in a stable, family home-based environment performed better and it is likely that this environment underpinned other factors affecting performance.