Southeast Asia and China: The role of history and culture in shaping future relations

Despite the position of the United States as de facto global hegemon, China is a rising power in the world. As Chinese power grows, the projection of Chinese influence will be felt most acutely in Southeast Asia. Whether to accommodate, contain or resist China will depend on future developments that none can foresee, including Chinese ambitions, the policies of other international players (the U.S., Japan), and the cohesion or fragility of the Association of Southeast Asia Nations (ASEAN). This paper argues that in deciding how best to deal with China, two factors that will influence the countries of Southeast Asia are their own long histories of bilateral relations with China and their own differing conceptions of how foreign relations should be conducted. This is to argue that history and culture are central to any understanding of the likely future shape of China-Southeast Asia relations. Only by taking history and culture into account will analysts be in a position to predict how the mainland and maritime states of Southeast Asia are likely to respond to a more powerful, confident and assertive China.

Mid-late Holocene monsoon climate retrieved from seasonal Sr/Ca and delta O-18 records of Porites lutea corals at Leizhou Peninsula, northern coast of South China Sea

South China Sea (SCS) is a major moisture source region, providing summer monsoon rainfall throughout Mainland China, which accounts for more than 80% total precipitation in the region. We report seasonal to monthly resolution Sr/Ca and delta(18)O data for five Holocene and one modem Porites corals, each covering a growth history of 9-13 years. The results reveal a general decreasing trend in sea surface temperature (SST) in the SCS from similar to 6800 to 1500 years ago, despite shorter climatic cycles. Compared with the mean Sr/Ca-SST in the 1990s (24.8 degrees C), 10-year mean Sr/Ca-SSTs were 0.9-0.5 degrees C higher between 6.8 and 5.0 thousand years before present (ky BP), dropped to the present level by similar to 2.5 ky BP, and reached a low of 22.6 degrees C (2.2 degrees C lower) by similar to 1.5 ky BP. The summer Sr/Ca-SST maxima, which are more reliable due to faster summer-time growth rates and higher sampling resolution, follow the same trend, i.e. being 1-2 degrees C higher between 6.8 and 5.0 ky BP, dropping to the present level by -2.5 ky BP, and reaching a low of 28.7 degrees C (0.7 degrees C lower) by similar to 1.5 ky BP. Such a decline in SST is accompanied by a similar decrease in the amount of monsoon moisture transported out of South China Sea, resulting in a general decrease in the seawater delta(18)O values, reflected by offsets of mean 6 180 relative to that in the 1990s. This observation is consistent with general weakening of the East Asian summer monsoon since early Holocene, in response to a continuous decline in solar radiation, which was also found in pollen, lake-level and loess/paleosol records throughout Mainland China. The climatic conditions similar to 2.5 and similar to 1.5 ky ago were also recorded in Chinese history. In contrast with the general cooling trend of the monsoon climate in East Asia, SST increased dramatically in recent time, with that in the 1990s being 2.2 degrees C warmer than that similar to 1.5 ky ago. This clearly indicates that the increase in the concentration of anthropogenic greenhouse gases played a dominant role in recent global warming, which reversed the natural climatic trend in East Asian monsoon regime. (c) 2004 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Familial aggregation of human infection with Schistosoma japonicum in the Poyang Lake region, China

Despite the success of extensive control measures that have been implemented in China for over 50 years, the number of individuals infected with Schistosoma japonicum remains high in the existing endemic areas. A variance components analysis was undertaken to estimate the heritable and environmental components that contribute to S. japonicum infection in the Poyang Lake region of Jiangxi Province, PR China. The total target population was 3148 from four separate administrative villages. Two thousand seven hundred and five of these comprised 400 families ranging in size from 3 to 188. After adjustments were made for gender, water contact and past history of having had schistosomiasis, the heritable component was estimated to account for as much as 58% of the phenotype variation under the polygenic model. Household was not shown to be an important environmental factor. Incorporating village effects indicated that the results were valid for the total population. We conclude that genetic heritability in this region is high and plays an important role in determining risk of infection with S. japonicum. (c) 2005 Australian Society for Parasitology Inc. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

High-precision TIMS U-series and AMS C-14 dating of a coral reef lagoon sediment core from southern South China Sea

Accurate dating of lagoon sediments has been a difficult problem, although lagoon profiles, usually with high deposition rates, have a great potential for high-resolution climate reconstruction. We report 26 high-precision TIMS U-series dates (on 25 coral branches) and five AMS C-14 dates (on foraminifera) for a 15.4-m long lagoon core from Yongshu Reef, Nansha area, southern South China Sea. All the dates are in the correct stratigraphical sequence, providing the best chronology so far reported for lagoon deposits. The results reveal a similar to 4000-a continuous depositional history, with sedimentation rates varying from 0.8 to 24.6 mm a(-1), with an average of 3.85 mm a(-1), which corresponds to an average net carbonate accumulation rate of similar to 2700 g CaCO3 m(-2) a(-1), significantly higher than the mean value (800 +/- 400 g CaCO3 m(-2) a(-1)) used for lagoons in general in previous studies of global carbonate budget. Episodes of accelerated depositions within the last 1000 years correlate well with strong storm events identified by U-series dates of storm-transported coral blocks in the area. However, in the longer term, the sedimentation rates during the past 1000 years were much higher than earlier on, probably due to more vigorous wave-reef interaction as a result of relative sea-level fall since 500 AD and expansion of reef flat area, supplying more sediments. The coral TIMS U-series ages and foraminifera AMS 14C dates reveal intriguing apparent radiocarbon reservoir ages (R) from 572 to 1052 years, which are much higher than global mean values of similar to 400 years. (c) 2006 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Urinary arsenic, porphyrins and malondialdehyde in a population 16 years after arsenic mitigation program in Xinjian, China

Arsenic contamination of groundwater (0.05 to 0.84 mg/L) in Kuitun, Xinjiang was first found in 1970’s. Alternative clean surface water was introduced in 1985. We aimed to assess the exposure and heath outcome since the mitigation. In 2000, we collected a total of 360 urine samples from villagers from the endemic area and a nearby control area for arsenic (As), porphyrins and malondialdehyde (MDA) measurements. The averaged urinary As level of villagers from the endemic site (117±8.3 μg/g creatinine; 4.2 to 943.8 μg/g creat) was higher than that of the control site (73.6±3.2 μg/g creat). No significant differences were found in urinary porphyrins or MDA between the endemic and control sites. However, when the urinary arsenic was higher than 150 μg/g creat, these two biomarkers were higher in the exposed group than the control. Within the exposed group, villagers with arsenic-related skin symptoms had higher arsenic, uroporphyrin and MDA compared to those who had not shown symptoms. Sine the water mitigation, villagers whose urinary arsenic levels were 270 μg/g creat dropped from 20% to 10% of the population. Population with arsenic-related skin symptoms remained unchanged at 31%. We noted that 7.8% of those who had skin lesions were born after the implementation of intervention and that some villagers still prefer to drink the groundwater. Further, in the dry season, lack of surface water and electrical power breakdowns are to blame for failure to ensure continuous supply of clean water. It is concluded that despite the prompt action and successful water mitigation program to curb arsenic poisonings, it is essential to continue to monitor the health outcome of this population.

Evolutionary theory of history

Several attempts have been made recently to apply Darwinian evolutionary theory to the study of culture change and social history. The essential elements in such a theory are that variations occur in population, and that a process of selective retention operates during their replication and transmission. Location of such variable units in the semantic structure of cognition provides the individual psychological basis for an evolutionary theory of history. Selection operates on both the level of cognition and on its phenotypic expression in action in relation to individual preferred sources of psychological satisfaction. Social power comprises the principal selective forces within the unintended consequences of action and through the struggle of individuals and groups in pursuit of opposing interests. The implication for historiography are methodological in that evolutionary theory of history sharpens the focus of explanatory situational analysis, and interpretive in that it provides a paradigmatic metanarrative for the understanding of historical change.