Implications of seasonal climate forecasts on world wheat trade: a stochastic, dynamic analysis

Improvements in seasonal climate forecasts have potential economic implications for international agriculture. A stochastic, dynamic simulation model of the international wheat economy is developed to estimate the potential effects of seasonal climate forecasts for various countries' wheat production, exports and world trade. Previous studies have generally ignored the stochastic and dynamic aspects of the effects associated with the use of climate forecasts. This study shows the importance of these aspects. In particular with free trade, the use of seasonal forecasts results in increased producer surplus across all exporting countries. In fact, producers appear to capture a large share of the economic surplus created by using the forecasts. Further, the stochastic dimensions suggest that while the expected long-run benefits of seasonal forecasts are positive, considerable year-to-year variation in the distribution of benefits between producers and consumers should be expected. The possibility exists for an economic measure to increase or decrease over a 20-year horizon, depending on the particular sequence of years.

Busy saying nothing new: Live silence in TV reporting of 9/11

News of the attacks on New York and Washington on September 11th 2001 spread fast, mainly through dramatic images of the events broadcast via a global television media, particularly 24-hour news channels such as BBC News 24 and CNN. Following the initial report many news channels moved to dedicated live coverage of the story. This move, to what Liebes (1998) describes as a 'disaster marathon', entails shifting from the routine, regular news agenda to one where the event and its aftermath become the main story and reference for all other news. In this paper, we draw upon recordings from the BBC News 24 channel on September 11th 2001 during the immediate aftermath of the attacks on the World Trade Centre and Pentagon to argue that the coverage of this event, and other similar types of events, may be characterised as news permeated with strategic and emergent silences. Identifying silence as both concrete and metaphorical, we suggest that there are a number of types of silence found in the coverage and that these not only act to cover for lack of new news, or give emphasis or gravitas, but also that the vacuum created by a lack of news creates an emotional space in which collective shock, grieving or wonder are managed through news presented as phatic communion.

The contagion of international terrorism and its effects on the firm in an interconnected world

International trade and investment economies are highly integrated and interdependent and can be exploited by organized, international terrorism. The network of inter dependencies in the international economy means that a terrorist attack has the potential to disrupt the functioning of the network, so the effects can reverberate around the world. Governments can control the distributed effects of terrorism by auditing industrial networks to reveal and protect critical hubs and by promoting flexibility in production and distribution of goods and services to improve resilience in the economy. To explain these network effects, the authors draw on the new science of complex networks which has been applied to the physical sciences and is now increasingly being used to explain organizational and economic phenomena.