New Zealand climate in the Neogene and implications for global atmospheric circulation

New Zealand has a good Neogene plant fossil record. During the Miocene it was without high topography and it was highly maritime, meaning that its climate, and the resulting vegetation, would be controlled dominantly by zonal climate conditions. Its vegetation record during this time suggests the climate passed from an ever-wet and cool but frostless phase in the Early Miocene in which Nothofagus subgenus Brassospora was prominent. Then it became seasonally dry, with vegetation in which palms and Eucalyptus were prominent and fires were frequent, and in the mid-Miocene, it developed a dry-climate vegetation dominated by Casuarinaceae. These changes are reflected in a sedimentological change from acidic to alkaline chemistry and the appearance of regular charcoal in the record. The vegetation then changed again to include a prominent herb component including Chenopodiaceae and Asteraceae. Sphagnum became prominent, and Nothofagus returned, but mainly as the subgenus Fuscospora (presently restricted to temperate climates). This is interpreted as a return to a generally wet, but now cold climate, in which outbreaks of cold polar air and frost were frequent. The transient drying out of a small maritime island and the accompanying vegetation/climate sequence could be explained by a higher frequency of the Sub-Tropical High Pressure (STHP) cells (the descending limbs of the Hadley cells) over New Zealand during the Miocene. This may have resulted from an increased frequency of 'blocking', a synoptic situation which occurs in the region today. An alternative hypothesis, that the global STHP belt lay at a significantly higher latitude in the early Neogene (perhaps 55degreesS) than today (about 30degreesS), is considered less likely because of physical constraints on STHP belt latitude. In either case, the difference between the early Neogene and present situation may have been a response to an increased polar-equatorial temperature gradient. This contrasts with current climate models for the geological past in which the latitude of the High Pressure belt impact is held invariant though geological time. (C) 2003 Elsevier Science B.V. All rights reserved.

Climate change and biotic invasions: a case history of a tropical woody vine

The impacts of climate change in the potential distribution and relative abundance of a C3 shrubby vine, Cryptostegia grandiflora, were investigated using the CLIMEX modelling package. Based upon its current naturalised distribution, C. grandiflora appears to occupy only a small fraction of its potential distribution in Australia under current climatic conditions; mostly in apparently sub-optimal habitat. The potential distribution of C. grandiflora is sensitive towards changes in climate and atmospheric chemistry in the expected range of this century, particularly those that result in increased temperature and water use efficiency. Climate change is likely to increase the potential distribution and abundance of the plant, further increasing the area at risk of invasion, and threatening the viability of current control strategies markedly. By identifying areas at risk of invasion, and vulnerabilities of control strategies, this analysis demonstrates the utility of climate models for providing information suitable to help formulate large-scale, long-term strategic plans for controlling biotic invasions. The effects of climate change upon the potential distribution of C. grandiflora are sufficiently great that strategic control plans for biotic invasions should routinely include their consideration. Whilst the effect of climate change upon the efficacy of introduced biological control agents remain unknown, their possible effect in the potential distribution of C. grandiflora will likely depend not only upon their effects on the population dynamics of C. grandiflora, but also on the gradient of climatic suitability adjacent to each segment of the range boundary.

Assessment of relationships between precipitation and satellite derived vegetation condition in South Australia

The normalised difference vegetation index (NDVI) has evolved as a primary tool for monitoring continental-scale vegetation changes and interpreting the impact of short to long-term climatic events on the biosphere. The objective of this research was to assess the nature of relationships between precipitation and vegetation condition, as measured by the satellite-derived NDVI within South Australia. The correlation, timing and magnitude of the NDVI response to precipitation were examined for different vegetation formations within the State (forest, scrubland, shrubland, woodland and grassland). Results from this study indicate that there are strong relationships between precipitation and NDVI both spatially and temporally within South Australia. Differences in the timing of the NDVI response to precipitation were evident among the five vegetation formations. The most significant relationship between rainfall and NDVI was within the forest formation. Negative correlations between NDVI and precipitation events indicated that vegetation green-up is a result of seasonal patterns in precipitation. Spatial patterns in the average NDVI over the study period closely resembled the boundaries of the five classified vegetation formations within South Australia. Spatial variability within the NDVI data set over the study period differed greatly between and within the vegetation formations examined depending on the location within the state. ACRONYMS AVHRR Advanced Very High Resolution Radiometer ENVSAEnvironments of South Australia EOS Terra-Earth Observing System EVIEnhanced Vegetation Index MODIS Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectro-radiometer MVC Maximum Value Composite NDVINormalised Difference Vegetation Index NIRNear Infra-Red NOAANational Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration SPOT Systeme Pour l’Observation de la Terre. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Interactive expectations

In modeling expectation formation, economic agents are usually viewed as forming expectations adaptively or in accordance with some rationality postulate. We offer an alternative nonlinear model where agents exchange their opinions and information with each other. Such a model yields multiple equilibria, or attracting distributions, that are persistent but subject to sudden large jumps. Using German Federal Statistical Office economic indicators and German IFO Poll expectational data, we show that this kind of model performs well in simulation experiments. Focusing upon producers' expectations in the consumption goods sector, we also discover evidence that structural change in the interactive process occurred over the period of investigation (1970-1998). Specifically, interactions in expectation formation seem to have become less important over time.

History of vegetation and habitat change in the Austral-Asian region

Over 1000 marine and terrestrial pollen diagrams and Some hundreds of vertebrate faunal sequences have been studied in the Austral-Asian region bisected by the PEPII transect, from the Russian arctic extending south through east Asia, Indochina, southern Asia, insular Southeast Asia (Sunda), Melanesia, Australasia (Sahul) and the western south Pacific. The majority of these records are Holocene but sufficient data exist to allow the reconstruction of the changing biomes over at least the past 200,000 years. The PEPII transect is free of the effects of large northern ice caps yet exhibits vegetational change in glacial cycles of a similar scale to North America. Major processes that can be discerned are the response of tropical forests in both lowlands and uplands to glacial cycles, the expansion of humid vegetation at the Pleistocene-Holocene transition and the change in faunal and vegetational controls as humans occupy the region. There is evidence for major changes in the intensity of monsoon and El Nino-Southern oscillation variability both on glacial-interglacial and longer time scales with much of the region experiencing a long-term trend towards more variable and/or drier climatic conditions. Temperature variation is most marked in high latitudes and high altitudes with precipitation providing the major climate control in lower latitude, lowland areas. At least some boundary shifts may be the response of vegetation to changing CO2 levels in the atmosphere. Numerous questions of detail remain, however, and current resolution is too coarse to examine the degree of synchroneity of millennial scale change along the transect. (C) 2003 Elsevier Ltd and INQUA. All rights reserved.

Advances in application of climate prediction in agriculture

Agricultural ecosystems and their associated business and government systems are diverse and varied. They range from farms, to input supply businesses, to marketing and government policy systems, among others. These systems are dynamic and responsive to fluctuations in climate. Skill in climate prediction offers considerable opportunities to managers via its potential to realise system improvements (i.e. increased food production and profit and/or reduced risks). Realising these opportunities, however, is not straightforward as the forecasting skill is imperfect and approaches to applying the existing skill to management issues have not been developed and tested extensively. While there has been much written about impacts of climate variability, there has been relatively little done in relation to applying knowledge of climate predictions to modify actions ahead of likely impacts. However, a considerable body of effort in various parts of the world is now being focused on this issue of applying climate predictions to improve agricultural systems. In this paper, we outline the basis for climate prediction, with emphasis on the El Nino-Southern Oscillation phenomenon, and catalogue experiences at field, national and global scales in applying climate predictions to agriculture. These diverse experiences are synthesised to derive general lessons about approaches to applying climate prediction in agriculture. The case studies have been selected to represent a diversity of agricultural systems and scales of operation. They also represent the on-going activities of some of the key research and development groups in this field around the world. The case studies include applications at field/farm scale to dryland cropping systems in Australia, Zimbabwe, and Argentina. This spectrum covers resource-rich and resource-poor farming with motivations ranging from profit to food security. At national and global scale we consider possible applications of climate prediction in commodity forecasting (wheat in Australia) and examine implications on global wheat trade and price associated with global consequences of climate prediction. In cataloguing these experiences we note some general lessons. Foremost is the value of an interdisciplinary systems approach in connecting disciplinary Knowledge in a manner most suited to decision-makers. This approach often includes scenario analysis based oil simulation with credible models as a key aspect of the learning process. Interaction among researchers, analysts and decision-makers is vital in the development of effective applications all of the players learn. Issues associated with balance between information demand and supply as well as appreciation of awareness limitations of decision-makers, analysts, and scientists are highlighted. It is argued that understanding and communicating decision risks is one of the keys to successful applications of climate prediction. We consider that advances of the future will be made by better connecting agricultural scientists and practitioners with the science of climate prediction. Professions involved in decision making must take a proactive role in the development of climate forecasts if the design and use of climate predictions are to reach their full potential. (C) 2001 Elsevier Science Ltd. All rights reserved.

A classification of subantarctic Heard Island vegetation

The vascular and bryophyte floras of subantarctic Heard Island were classified using cluster analysis into six vegetation communities: Open Cushion Carpet, Mossy Feldmark, Wet Mixed Herbfield, Coastal Biotic Vegetation, Saltspray Vegetation, and Closed Cushion Carpet. Multidimensional scaling indicated that the vegetation communities were not well delineated but were continua. Discriminant analysis and a classification tree identified altitude, wind, peat depth, bryophyte cover and extent of bare ground, and particle size as discriminating variables. The combination of small area, glaciation, and harsh climate has resulted in reduced vegetation variety in comparison to those subantarctic islands north of the Antarctic Polar Front Zone. Some of the functional groups and vegetation communities found on warmer subantarctic islands are not present on Heard Island, notably ferns and sedges and fernbrakes and extensive mires, respectively.

N-15 natural abundance of fossil peat reflects the influence of animal-derived nitrogen on vegetation

delta(15)N signatures of fossil peat were used to interpret past ecosystem processes on tectonically active subantarctic Macquarie Island. By comparing past vegetation reconstructed from the fossil record with present-day vegetation analogues, our evidence strongly suggests that changes in the delta(15)N signatures of fossil peat at this location reflect mainly past changes in the proportion of plant nitrogen derived from animal sources. Associated with uplift above sea level over the past 8,500 years, fossil records in two peat deposits on the island chronicle a change from coastal vegetation with fur and elephant seal disturbance to the existing inland herbfield. Coupled with this change are synchronous changes in the delta(15)N signatures of peat layers. At two sites N-15-enriched peat delta(15)N signatures of up to +17parts per thousand were associated with a high abundance of pollen of the nitrophile Callitriche antarctica (Callitrichaceae). At one site fossil seal hair was also associated with enriched peat delta(15)N. Less N-15 enriched delta(15)N signatures (e.g. -1.9parts per thousand to +3.9parts per thousand) were measured in peat layers which lacked animal associated C. antarctica and Acaena spp. Interpretation of a third peat profile indicates continual occupation of a ridge site by burrowing petrels for most of the Holocene. We suggest that N-15 signatures of fossil peat remained relatively stable with time once deposited, providing a significant new tool for interpreting the palaeoecology.

Aggregated personality, climate and demographic factors as predictors of departmental shrinkage

The present study investigated how demographic, personality, and climate variables act to predict departmental theft. Participants in the current field survey were 153 employees from 17 departments across two stores. The results of confirmatory factor analyses supported the construct validity of the Big Five Inventory (John, Donahue, & Kentle, 1991) and the Occupational Climate Questionnaire (Furnham & Gunter, 1997) in UK work settings. The results of regression analysis indicate that the variability in departmental theft is accountable in terms of a linear combination of demographic, personality, and climate factors. We concluded that an expanded theoretical perspective (utilizing demographic, personality, and climate variables) explained more variance than might otherwise be expected from any single perspective. Indeed, climate, personality, and demographic variables operated legitimately at the departmental level. Finally, we explained aggregated personality as a form of social interaction which is the by-product of individual differences.

Effects of habitat characteristics and climate on the distribution and colouration of Dusky Moorhens (Gallinula tenebrosa) in south-east Queensland

We determined which factors predict the presence and abundance of Dusky Moorhens (Gallinula tenebrosa) at wetlands by surveying the ecological and habitat characteristics of 62 sites across south-east Queensland. Moorhens were observed in 48 of the sites sampled. They were more likely to be found at sites surrounded by taller terrestrial vegetation and where free-floating and attached aquatic vegetation was more abundant. The number of moorhens found at a site increased in relation to vegetation height, the abundance of attached aquatic vegetation and the number of purple swamphens observed. These results suggest that there are ecological constraints on the distribution of moorhens, and that food abundance and the availability of suitable nesting sites determine the overall distribution and abundance of moorhens in wetlands. Adult moorhens develop brightly coloured fleshy frontal shields, bills and legs when breeding, although in some populations birds maintain year-round colouration. We observed year-round breeding colouration in 23 out of 34 sampling sites that had moorhens and were surveyed in August. Coloured moorhens were found during winter at sites with higher minimum winter temperatures, and more abundant free-floating and submerged leafy vegetation. In addition, higher proportions of moorhens were coloured at sites with higher mean minimum temperatures. The retention of year-round breeding colouration appears to be restricted to areas with warmer winter temperatures and more abundant food. The results suggest that areas not occupied by moorhens are of inadequate quality to support breeding populations. We suggest that ecological constraints on independent breeding in Dusky Moorhens may have favoured the evolution of their unusual cooperative breeding system, which involves frequent mate-sharing by both sexes.

SPAnDX: a process-based population dynamics model to explore management and climate change impacts on an invasive alien plant, Acacia nilotica

This paper describes a process-based metapopulation dynamics and phenology model of prickly acacia, Acacia nilotica, an invasive alien species in Australia. The model, SPAnDX, describes the interactions between riparian and upland sub-populations of A. nilotica within livestock paddocks, including the effects of extrinsic factors such as temperature, soil moisture availability and atmospheric concentrations of carbon dioxide. The model includes the effects of management events such as changing the livestock species or stocking rate, applying fire, and herbicide application. The predicted population behaviour of A. nilotica was sensitive to climate. Using 35 years daily weather datasets for five representative sites spanning the range of conditions that A. nilotica is found in Australia, the model predicted biomass levels that closely accord with expected values at each site. SPAnDX can be used as a decision-support tool in integrated weed management, and to explore the sensitivity of cultural management practices to climate change throughout the range of A. nilotica. The cohort-based DYMEX modelling package used to build and run SPAnDX provided several advantages over more traditional population modelling approaches (e.g. an appropriate specific formalism (discrete time, cohort-based, process-oriented), user-friendly graphical environment, extensible library of reusable components, and useful and flexible input/output support framework). (C) 2003 Published by Elsevier Science B.V.

Boron nutrition and chilling tolerance of warm climate crop species

Background Field observations and glasshouse studies have suggested links between boron (B)-deficiency and leaf damage induced by low temperature in crop plants, but causal relationships between these two stresses at physiological, biochemical and molecular levels have yet to be explored. Limited evidence at the whole-plant level suggests that chilling temperature in the root zone restricts B uptake capacity and/or B distribution/utilization efficiency in the shoot, but the nature of this interaction depends on chilling tolerance of species concerned, the mode of low temperature treatment (abrupt versus gradual temperature decline) and growth conditions (e.g. photon flux density and relative humidity) that may exacerbate chilling stress. Scope This review explores roles of B nutrition in chilling tolerance of continual root or transient shoot chills in crop species adapted to warm season conditions. It reviews current research on combined effects of chilling temperature (ranging from > 0 to 20 degrees C) and B deficiency on growth and B nutrition responses in crop species differing in chilling tolerance. Conclusion For subtropical/tropical species (e.g. cucumber, cassava, sunflower), root chilling at 10-17 degrees C decreases B uptake efficiency and B utilization in the shoot and increases the shoot : root ratio, but chilling-tolerant temperate species (e.g. oilseed rape, wheat) require much lower root chill temperatures (2-5 degrees C) to achieve the same responses. Boron deficiency exacerbates chilling injuries in leaf tissues, particularly under high photon flux density. Suggested mechanisms for B x chilling interactions in plants are: (a) chilling-induced reduction in plasmalemma hydraulic conductivity, membrane fluidity, water channel activity and root pressure, which contribute to the decrease in root hydraulic conductance, water uptake and associated B uptake; (b) chilling-induced stomatal dysfunction affecting B transport from root to shoot and B partitioning in the shoot; and (c) B deficiency induced sensitivity to photo-oxidative damage in leaf cells. However, specific evidence for each of the mechanisms is still lacking. Impacts of B status on chilling tolerance in crop species have important implications for the management of B supply during sensitive stages of growth, such as early growth after planting and early reproductive development, both of which can coincide with the occurrence of chilling temperatures in the field.

Modelling pre-clearing vegetation distribution using GIS-integrated statistical, ecological and data models: A case study from the wet tropics of Northeastern Australia

Traditional vegetation mapping methods use high cost, labour-intensive aerial photography interpretation. This approach can be subjective and is limited by factors such as the extent of remnant vegetation, and the differing scale and quality of aerial photography over time. An alternative approach is proposed which integrates a data model, a statistical model and an ecological model using sophisticated Geographic Information Systems (GIS) techniques and rule-based systems to support fine-scale vegetation community modelling. This approach is based on a more realistic representation of vegetation patterns with transitional gradients from one vegetation community to another. Arbitrary, though often unrealistic, sharp boundaries can be imposed on the model by the application of statistical methods. This GIS-integrated multivariate approach is applied to the problem of vegetation mapping in the complex vegetation communities of the Innisfail Lowlands in the Wet Tropics bioregion of Northeastern Australia. The paper presents the full cycle of this vegetation modelling approach including sampling sites, variable selection, model selection, model implementation, internal model assessment, model prediction assessments, models integration of discrete vegetation community models to generate a composite pre-clearing vegetation map, independent data set model validation and model prediction's scale assessments. An accurate pre-clearing vegetation map of the Innisfail Lowlands was generated (0.83r(2)) through GIS integration of 28 separate statistical models. This modelling approach has good potential for wider application, including provision of. vital information for conservation planning and management; a scientific basis for rehabilitation of disturbed and cleared areas; a viable method for the production of adequate vegetation maps for conservation and forestry planning of poorly-studied areas. (c) 2006 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Accommodative communication as a mediator to the negative effects of cultural identity on perceptions of foreign management practices and perceptions of organisational climate

This Study examines whether cultural identity has an impact on perceptions of foreign management practices and perceptions of organisational climate. Based on social identity theory as a conceptual framework, it is assumed that the salience of cultural identity leads to in-group bias in interpreting organisational events. This study also examines whether managers' accommodative communication behaviour mediates these relationships. In a multinational organisation, employees see the foreign company as a symbol, and the person that deals with them in everyday working relationships in the organisation is their direct leader. It is argued that the salience of cultural identity wiU depend on employees' perceptions of the way managers attach meaning to foreign managerial practices and communicate it to them. Interaction with managers who create a distance with their employees and who fail to Usten to what employees need may be a socially appropriate way to invoke the salience of cultural identity in the working relationship. The participants were 206 Indonesian employees from three multinational organisations. Using a questionnaire, this study shows that participants with strong cultural identity had more negative perceptions of foreign management practices and organisational climate. Furthermore, this study indicates that managers' accommodative communication behaviour mediated these relationships.