The application of statistical process control charts to the detection and monitoring of hospital-acquired infections

The monitoring of infection control indicators including hospital-acquired infections is an established part of quality maintenance programmes in many health-care facilities. However, surveillance data use can be frustrated by the infrequent nature of many infections. Traditional methods of analysis often provide delayed identification of increasing infection occurrence, placing patients at preventable risk. The application of Shewhart, Cumulative Sum (CUSUM) and Exponentially Weighted Moving Average (EWMA) statistical process control charts to the monitoring of indicator infections allows continuous real-time assessment. The Shewhart chart will detect large changes, while CUSUM and EWMA methods are more suited to recognition of small to moderate sustained change. When used together, Shewhart and EWMA methods are ideal for monitoring bacteraemia and multiresistant organism rates. Shewhart and CUSUM charts are suitable for surgical infection surveillance.

Adaptive stepsize based on control theory for stochastic differential equations

The numerical solution of stochastic differential equations (SDEs) has been focussed recently on the development of numerical methods with good stability and order properties. These numerical implementations have been made with fixed stepsize, but there are many situations when a fixed stepsize is not appropriate. In the numerical solution of ordinary differential equations, much work has been carried out on developing robust implementation techniques using variable stepsize. It has been necessary, in the deterministic case, to consider the best choice for an initial stepsize, as well as developing effective strategies for stepsize control-the same, of course, must be carried out in the stochastic case. In this paper, proportional integral (PI) control is applied to a variable stepsize implementation of an embedded pair of stochastic Runge-Kutta methods used to obtain numerical solutions of nonstiff SDEs. For stiff SDEs, the embedded pair of the balanced Milstein and balanced implicit method is implemented in variable stepsize mode using a predictive controller for the stepsize change. The extension of these stepsize controllers from a digital filter theory point of view via PI with derivative (PID) control will also be implemented. The implementations show the improvement in efficiency that can be attained when using these control theory approaches compared with the regular stepsize change strategy. (C) 2004 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Body size and ovarian cancer: case-control study and systematic review (Australia)

Objective: Although increased body mass is an established risk factor for a variety of cancers, its relation with cancer of the ovary is unclear. We therefore investigated the association between measures of body mass index (BMI) and ovarian cancer risk. Methods: Data from an Australian case-control study of 775 ovarian cancer cases and 846 controls were used to examine the association with BMI. We have also summarized the results from a number of other studies that have examined this association. Results: There was a significant increased risk of ovarian cancer with increasing BMI, with women in the top 15% of the BMI range having an odds ratio (OR) of 1.9 (95% confidence interval (CI), 1.3-2.6) compared with those in the middle 30%. Stratifying by physical activity showed a stronger effect among inactive women (OR = 3.0, 95% CI 1.3-6.9). The overall effect was consistent with the findings of most prior population-based case-control studies, while cohort studies reported positive effects closer to the null. Hospital-based studies gave variable results. Conclusions: Taken together, the evidence is in favor of a small to moderate positive relation between high BMI and occurrence of ovarian cancer.

The calibre of the Foramen of Panizza in Crocodylus porosus is variable and under adrenergic control

The foramen of Panizza is located within the outflow tract of the crocodilian heart, between the left and right aortas. It has been suggested that the foremen of Panizza has a variable calibre, which could explain the profound changes in the distribution of flows and pressure profiles recorded in the right and left aortas. We investigated this possibility using a modified in-situ perfused heart preparation in combination with isolated strip preparations from the outflow tract. In the perfused heart preparation, bolus injections of adrenaline increased the resistance in the foramen of Panizza, indicating a decrease in its diameter. Isolated strip preparations from the outflow tract showed a concentration-dependent increase in tension in response to adrenaline, while vasoactive intestinal polypeptide caused a relaxation in adrenaline pre-contracted strip preparations. We propose that an increase in the diameter of the foremen of Panizza may be important during pulmonary to systemic shunts to allow blood to flow from the left to right aorta (reverse foramen flow) in order to supply the carotid and coronary arteries. During non-shunting conditions, a constricted foramen may prevent excess flow from the right to left aorta during diastole.

Binomial leap methods for simulating stochastic chemical kinetics

This paper discusses efficient simulation methods for stochastic chemical kinetics. Based on the tau-leap and midpoint tau-leap methods of Gillespie [D. T. Gillespie, J. Chem. Phys. 115, 1716 (2001)], binomial random variables are used in these leap methods rather than Poisson random variables. The motivation for this approach is to improve the efficiency of the Poisson leap methods by using larger stepsizes. Unlike Poisson random variables whose range of sample values is from zero to infinity, binomial random variables have a finite range of sample values. This probabilistic property has been used to restrict possible reaction numbers and to avoid negative molecular numbers in stochastic simulations when larger stepsize is used. In this approach a binomial random variable is defined for a single reaction channel in order to keep the reaction number of this channel below the numbers of molecules that undergo this reaction channel. A sampling technique is also designed for the total reaction number of a reactant species that undergoes two or more reaction channels. Samples for the total reaction number are not greater than the molecular number of this species. In addition, probability properties of the binomial random variables provide stepsize conditions for restricting reaction numbers in a chosen time interval. These stepsize conditions are important properties of robust leap control strategies. Numerical results indicate that the proposed binomial leap methods can be applied to a wide range of chemical reaction systems with very good accuracy and significant improvement on efficiency over existing approaches. (C) 2004 American Institute of Physics.

Peptidergic control of gastrointestinal blood flow in the estuarine crocodile, Crocodylus porosus

Peptidergic mechanisms influencing the resistance of the gastrointestinal vascular bed of the estuarine crocodile, Crocodylus porosus, were investigated. The gut was perfused in situ via the mesenteric and the celiac arteries, and the effects of different neuropeptides were tested using bolus injections. Effects on vascular resistance were recorded as changes in inflow pressures. Peptides found in sensory neurons [substance P, neurokinin A, and calcitonin gene-related peptide (CGRP)] all caused significant relaxation of the celiac vascular bed, as did vasoactive intestinal polypeptide (VIP), another well-known vasodilator. Except for VIP, the peptides also induced transitory gut contractions. Somatostatin and neuropeptide Y (NPY), which coexist in adrenergic neurons of the C. porosus, induced vasoconstriction in the celiac vascular bed without affecting the gut motility. Galanin caused vasoconstriction and occasionally activated the gut wall. To elucidate direct effects on individual vessels, the different peptides were tested on isolated ring preparations of the mesenteric and celiac arteries. Only CGRP and VIP relaxed the epinephrine-precontracted celiac artery, whereas the effects on the mesenteric artery were variable. Somatostatin and NPY did not affect the resting tonus of these vessels, but somatostatin potentiated the epinephrine-induced contraction of the celiac artery. Immunohistochemistry revealed the existence and localization of the above-mentioned peptides in nerve fibers innervating vessels of different sizes in the gut region. These data support the hypothesis of an important role for neuropeptides in the control of the vascular bed of the gastrointestinal tract in C. porosus.

Evaluation of an immunoassay (EMIT) for mycophenolic acid in plasma from renal transplant recipients compared with a high-performance liquid chromatography assay

Mycophenolic acid is an immunosuppressant administered as a bioavailable ester, mycophenolate mofetil. The pharmacokinetics of mycophenolic acid have been reported to be variable. Accurate measurement of concentrations of this drug could be important to adjust doses. The aim of this study was to compare the enzyme-multiplied immunoassay technique (EMIT [Dade Behring; San Jose, CA, U.S.A.]) for mycophenolic acid with a high-performance liquid chromatographic (HPLC) assay using samples collected from renal transplant recipients. The HPLC assay used solid phase extraction and a C18 stationary phase with ultraviolet (UV) detection (254 nm). The immunoassay required no manual sample preparation. Plasma samples (n = 102) from seven patients, collected at various times after a dose, were analyzed using both methods. Both assays fulfilled quality-control criteria. Higher concentrations were consistently measured in patient samples when using EMIT. The mean (+/- standard deviation [SD]) bias (EMIT-HPLC) was 1.88 +/- 0.86 mg/L. The differences in concentrations were higher in the middle of a dosage interval, suggesting that a metabolite might have been responsible for overestimation. Measurement of glucuronide concentrations by HPLC demonstrated only a weak correlation between assay differences and glucuronide concentrations. If the crossreacting substance is active, EMIT could provide a superior measure of immunosuppression; if inactive, further work is needed to improve antibody specificity. In conclusion, it was found that EMIT overestimates the concentration of mycophenolic acid in plasma samples from renal transplant recipients compared with HPLC analysis.

Coronary events and exposure to environmental tobacco smoke: a case-control study from Australia and New Zealand

Objectives-To estimate the relative risk of coronary heart disease (CHD) associated with exposure to environmental tobacco smoke (ETS). Design-Population-based case-control study. Subjects-Cases were 953 people identified in a population register of coronary events, and controls were 3189 participants in independent community-based risk factor prevalence surveys from the same study populations. Setting-Newcastle, Australia and Auckland, New Zealand. Main outcome measures-Acute myocardial infarction or coronary death. Results-After adjusting for the effects of age, education, history of heart disease, and body mass index, women had a statistically significant increased risk of a coronary event associated with exposure to ETS (relative risk (RR) = 1.99; 95% confidence interval (CI)= 1.40-2.81). There was little statistical evidence of increased risk found in men (RR = 1.02, 95% CI = 0.81-1.28). Conclusion-Our study found evidence for the adverse effects of exposure to ETS on risk of coronary heart disease among women, especially at home. For men the issue is unclear according to the data from our study. Additional studies with detailed information on possible confounders and adequate statistical power are needed. Most importantly, they should use methods for measuring exposure to ETS that are sufficiently accurate to permit the investigation of dose-response relationships.

The serotonin transporter gene and Parkinson's disease

Dysfunction in the serotonin (5-hydroxytryptamine) system and reduced serotonin concentrations have been reported in patients with Parkinson's disease (PD). Serotonin concentrations in neural tissue are controlled by a presynaptic serotonin transporter protein that is encoded by a single gene. Therefore, we investigated whether a polymorphic region in the serotonin transporter gene is associated with PD. Three variable-number tandem repeat (VNTR) elements of the serotonin transporter gene were detected by polymerase chain reaction, those with 9, 10, 11 and 12 copies of the repeat element. The 10-copy VNTR element was significantly less common in patients with PD than controls in the univariate analysis (p < 0.05). Logistic regression analysis revealed no significant differences between patients (n = 198) and controls (n = 200) in the distribution frequencies of 9-and 12-copy alleles and combined genotypes (odds ratio = 1.20; p = 1.71). A positive family history of PD was a strong predictor of disease risk (odds ratio = 2.98; 95% confidence interval 1.51-5.87; p = 0.001). Although slight differences were observed between patient and control groups, these data suggest that defects in serotonin concentrations in patients with PD are unlikely to be due to polymorphisms in the serotonin transporter gene in this large Australian cohort; however, the inverse association observed with the 10-copy allele warrants further investigation. Copyright (C) 2000 S. Karger AG, Basel.

Acute high-intensity interval training improves T-vent and peak power output in highly trained males.

This study examined the effects of four high-intensity interval-training (HIT) sessions performed over 2 weeks on peak volume of oxygen uptake (VO2peak), the first and second ventilatory thresholds (UT VT2) and peak power output (PPO) in highly trained cyclists. Fourteen highly trained male cyclists (VO2peak = 67.5 +/- 3.7 ml . kg(-1) . min(-1)) performed a ramped cycle test to determine VO2peak VT1 VT2, and PPO. Subjects were divided equally into a HIT group and a control group. The HIT group performed four HIT sessions (20 x 60 s at PPO, 120 s recovery); the V-02peak test was repeated <I wk after the HIT program. Control subjects maintained their regular training program and were reassessed under the same timeline. There was no change in V0(2peak) for either group; however, the HIT group showed a significantly greater increase in VT1, (+22% vs. -3%), VT2 (+15% vs. -1%), and PPO (+4.3 vs. -.4%) compared to controls (all P <.05). This study has demonstrated that HIT can improve VT1, VT2,, and PPO, following only four HIT sessions in already highly trained cyclists.

Active and passive smoking and the risk of subarachnoid hemorrhage - An international population-based case-control study

Background and Purpose - This study was undertaken to better clarify the risks associated with cigarette smoking and subarachnoid hemorrhage (SAH). Methods - The study included 432 incident cases of SAH frequency matched to 473 community SAH-free controls to determine dose-dependent associations of active and passive smoking ( at home) and smoking cessation with SAH. Results - Compared with never smokers not exposed to passive smoking, the adjusted odds ratio for SAH among current smokers was 5.0 (95% confidence interval [CI], 3.1 to 8.1); for past smokers, 1.2 ( 95% CI, 0.8 to 2.0); and for passive smokers, 0.9 ( 95% CI, 0.6 to 1.5). Current and lifetime exposures showed a clear dose-dependent effect, and risks appeared more prominent in women and for aneurysmal SAH. Approximately 1 in 3 cases of SAH could be attributed to current smoking, but risks decline quickly after smoking cessation, even among heavy smokers. Conclusions - A strong positive association was found between cigarette smoking and SAH, especially for aneurysmal SAH and women, which is virtually eliminated within a few years of smoking cessation. Large opportunities exist for preventing SAH through smoking avoidance and cessation programs.

The relationship between prepulse inhibition and perceived intensity of the blink-eliciting stimulus: Stimulus intensity and lead interval effects

The hypothesis that prepulse inhibition of the blink reflex reflects a transient process that protects preattentive processing of the prepulse was investigated. Participants were presented with pairs of blink-eliciting noises, with some noises preceded by a prepulse, and were asked to rate the intensity of the second noise relative to the first. Inhibition of blink amplitude was greater for a 110 dB(A) noise than for a 95 dB(A) noise with a 120 ms lead interval, whereas there was no difference with a 30 ms lead interval. The reduction in perceived intensity was greater for the 110 dB(A) noise than for the 95 dB(A) noise with the 120 ms lead interval, but not with the 30 ms lead interval. The parallel results support an association between prepulse inhibition and perceived intensity. However, the prepulse did not reduce intensity ratings relative to control trials in some conditions, suggesting that prepulse inhibition is not always associated with an attenuation of the impact of the blink-eliciting stimulus.

Familial partial epilepsy with variable foci: Clinical features and linkage to chromosome 22q12

Background: Familial partial epilepsy with variable foci (FPEVF) is an autosomal dominant syndrome characterized by partial seizures originating from different brain regions in different family members in the absence of detectable structural abnormalities. A gene for FPEVF was mapped to chromosome 22q12 in two distantly related French-Canadian families. Methods: We describe the clinical features and performed a linkage analysis in a Spanish kindred and in a third French-Canadian family distantly related to the original pedigrees. Results: Onset of seizures was typically in middle childhood, and attacks were usually easy to control. Seizure semiology varied among family members but was constant for each individual. In some, a pattern of nocturnal frontal lobe seizures led to consideration of the diagnosis of autosomal dominant nocturnal frontal lobe epilepsy (ADNFLE). The Spanish family was mapped to chromosome 22q (multipoint lod score, 3.4), and the new French-Canadian family had a multipoint lod score of 2.97 and shared the haplotype of the original French-Canadian families. Conclusions: Identification of the various forms of familial partial epilepsy is challenging, particularly in small families, in which insufficient individuals exist to identify a specific pattern. We provide clinical guidelines for this task, which will eventually be supplanted by specific molecular diagnosis. We confirmed linkage of FPEVF to chromosome 22q 12 and redefined the region to a 5.2-Mb segment of DNA.

A Comparison of Bayesian and Sampling Theory Inferences in a Probit Model

HE PROBIT MODEL IS A POPULAR DEVICE for explaining binary choice decisions in econometrics. It has been used to describe choices such as labor force participation, travel mode, home ownership, and type of education. These and many more examples can be found in papers by Amemiya (1981) and Maddala (1983). Given the contribution of economics towards explaining such choices, and given the nature of data that are collected, prior information on the relationship between a choice probability and several explanatory variables frequently exists. Bayesian inference is a convenient vehicle for including such prior information. Given the increasing popularity of Bayesian inference it is useful to ask whether inferences from a probit model are sensitive to a choice between Bayesian and sampling theory techniques. Of interest is the sensitivity of inference on coefficients, probabilities, and elasticities. We consider these issues in a model designed to explain choice between fixed and variable interest rate mortgages. Two Bayesian priors are employed: a uniform prior on the coefficients, designed to be noninformative for the coefficients, and an inequality restricted prior on the signs of the coefficients. We often know, a priori, whether increasing the value of a particular explanatory variable will have a positive or negative effect on a choice probability. This knowledge can be captured by using a prior probability density function (pdf) that is truncated to be positive or negative. Thus, three sets of results are compared:those from maximum likelihood (ML) estimation, those from Bayesian estimation with an unrestricted uniform prior on the coefficients, and those from Bayesian estimation with a uniform prior truncated to accommodate inequality restrictions on the coefficients.