Asthma mortality in Australia 1920-94: Age, period, and cohort effects

Study objective-To investigate asthma mortality during 1920-94 in Australia in order to assess the relative role of period and birth cohort effects. Design-Asthma mortality (both sexes) was age standardised and examined for changes over time. The data were also examined for age, period, and cohort (APC) effects using Poisson regression modelling. Setting-National Australian mortality data. Participants-Population (both sexes) aged 15-34 years, 1920-94. Main results-Age adjusted period rates indicate an increase in asthma mortality during the 1950s, and increases and subsequent falls (epidemics) during the mid 1960s and late 1980s. APC modelling suggested an increasing cohort effect (adjusted for both age and period) from the birth cohort 1950-54 onwards. Period effects (adjusted for age and cohort) are characterised by an increase in the 1950s (possibly due to changes in diagnostic labelling), minimal or no increases in the mid 1960s and late 1980s (where period peaks had been noted when data were adjusted for age only), and declines in mortality risk subsequent to the periods where age-period analysis had noted increases. Thus, in Australia, some of the mid 1960s epidemic in asthma deaths, and all of the late 1980s mortality increase, seem to be attributable to cohort effects. Conclusions-The increase in asthma mortality cohort effect is consistent with empirical evidence of recent increases in prevalence (and presumably incidence) of asthma in Australia, and suggests the need for more research into the underlying environmental aetiology of this condition.

Subspace wavepacket evolution with Newton polynomials

Time-dependent wavepacket evolution techniques demand the action of the propagator, exp(-iHt/(h)over-bar), on a suitable initial wavepacket. When a complex absorbing potential is added to the Hamiltonian for combating unwanted reflection effects, polynomial expansions of the propagator are selected on their ability to cope with non-Hermiticity. An efficient subspace implementation of the Newton polynomial expansion scheme that requires fewer dense matrix-vector multiplications than its grid-based counterpart has been devised. Performance improvements are illustrated with some benchmark one and two-dimensional examples. (C) 2001 Elsevier Science B.V. All rights reserved.

The epileptology of Theodore Herpin (1799-1865)

The Frenchman, Theodore Herpin (1799-1865), in Des Acces Incomplets d'Epilepsie, published posthumously in 1867, provided a very detailed account of a wide range of the possible manifestations of nonconvulsive epileptic seizures. However, he did not note the presence of absence seizures in any of his 300 patients who had experienced, at least in some of their attacks, what he considered were incomplete manifestations of epilepsy, the word epilepsy being taken to refer to full generalized tonic-clonic seizures. In the one patient, Herpin recognized that all epileptic seizures, whether complete or incomplete, began in the same way, and deduced that they must originate in the same place in that patient's brain. He did not develop the latter idea further. His observations, and his interpretation of them, seem to have preceded John Hughlings Jackson's independent development of similar concepts, but Jackson's more extensive intellectual exploration of the implications of his observations made him a more important figure than Herpin in the history of epileptology.