A simulation model of cereal-legume intercropping systems for semi-arid regions I. Model development

Cereal-legume intercropping plays an important role in subsistence food production in developing countries, especially in situations of limited water resources. Crop simulation can be used to assess risk for intercrop productivity over time and space. In this study, a simple model for intercropping was developed for cereal and legume growth and yield, under semi-arid conditions. The model is based on radiation interception and use, and incorporates a water stress factor. Total dry matter and yield are functions of photosynthetically active radiation (PAR), the fraction of radiation intercepted and radiation use efficiency (RUE). One of two PAR sub-models was used to estimate PAR from solar radiation; either PAR is 50% of solar radiation or the ratio of PAR to solar radiation (PAR/SR) is a function of the clearness index (K-T). The fraction of radiation intercepted was calculated either based on Beer's Law with crop extinction coefficients (K) from field experiments or from previous reports. RUE was calculated as a function of available soil water to a depth of 900 mm (ASW). Either the soil water balance method or the decay curve approach was used to determine ASW. Thus, two alternatives for each of three factors, i.e., PAR/SR, K and ASW, were considered, giving eight possible models (2 methods x 3 factors). The model calibration and validation were carried out with maize-bean intercropping systems using data collected in a semi-arid region (Bloemfontein, Free State, South Africa) during seven growing seasons (1996/1997-2002/2003). The combination of PAR estimated from the clearness index, a crop extinction coefficient from the field experiment and the decay curve model gave the most reasonable and acceptable result. The intercrop model developed in this study is simple, so this modelling approach can be employed to develop other cereal-legume intercrop models for semi-arid regions. (c) 2004 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

A simulation model of cereal-legume intercropping systems for semi-arid regions II. Model application

Smallholder farmers in Africa practice traditional cropping techniques such as intercropping. Intercropping is thought to offer higher productivity and resource milisation than sole cropping. In this study, risk associated with maize-bean intercropping was evaluated by quantifying long-term yield in both intercropping and sole cropping in a semi-arid region of South Africa (Bloemfontein, Free State) with reference to rainfall variability. The crop simulation model was run with different cultural practices (planting date and plant density) for 52 summer crop growing seasons (1950/1951-2001/2002). Eighty-one scenarios, consisted of three levels of initial soil water, planting date, maize population, and bean population, were simulated. From the simulation outputs, the total land equivalent ratio (LER) was greater than one. The intercrop (equivalent to sole maize) had greater energy value (EV) than sole beans, and the intercrop (equivalent to sole beans) had greater monetary value (MV) than sole maize. From these results, it can be concluded that maize-bean intercropping is advantageous for this semi-arid region. Soil water at planting was the most important factor of all scenario factors, followed by planting date. Irrigation application at planting, November/December planting and high plant density of maize for EV and beans for MV can be one of the most effective cultural practices in the study region. With regard to rainfall variability, seasonal (October-April) rainfall positively affected EV and MV, but not LER. There was more intercrop production in La Nina years than in El Nino years. Thus, better cultural practices may be selected to maximize maize-bean intercrop yields for specific seasons in the semi-arid region based on the global seasonal outlook. (c) 2004 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Comparative evaluation of microscopic car-following behavior

Microscopic traffic-simulation tools are increasingly being applied to evaluate the impacts of a wide variety of intelligent transport, systems (ITS) applications and other dynamic problems that are difficult to solve using traditional analytical models. The accuracy of a traffic-simulation system depends highly on the quality of the traffic-flow model at its core, with the two main critical components being the car-following and lane-changing models. This paper presents findings from a comparative evaluation of car-following behavior in a number of traffic simulators [advanced interactive microscopic simulator for urban and nonurban networks (AIMSUN), parallel microscopic simulation (PARAMICS), and Verkehr in Statiten-simulation (VISSIM)]. The car-following algorithms used in these simulators have been developed from a variety of theoretical backgrounds and are reported to have been calibrated on a number of different data sets. Very few independent studies have attempted to evaluate the performance of the underlying algorithms based on the same data set. The results reported in this study are based on a car-following experiment that used instrumented vehicles to record the speed and relative distance between follower and leader vehicles on a one-lane road. The experiment was replicated in each tool and the simulated car-following behavior was compared to the field data using a number of error tests. The results showed lower error values for the Gipps-based models implemented in AIMSUN and similar error values for the psychophysical spacing models used in VISSIM and PARAMICS. A qualitative drift and goal-seeking behavior test, which essentially shows how the distance headway between leader and follower vehicles should oscillate around a stable distance, also confirmed the findings.

Implications of seasonal climate forecasts on world wheat trade: a stochastic, dynamic analysis

Improvements in seasonal climate forecasts have potential economic implications for international agriculture. A stochastic, dynamic simulation model of the international wheat economy is developed to estimate the potential effects of seasonal climate forecasts for various countries' wheat production, exports and world trade. Previous studies have generally ignored the stochastic and dynamic aspects of the effects associated with the use of climate forecasts. This study shows the importance of these aspects. In particular with free trade, the use of seasonal forecasts results in increased producer surplus across all exporting countries. In fact, producers appear to capture a large share of the economic surplus created by using the forecasts. Further, the stochastic dimensions suggest that while the expected long-run benefits of seasonal forecasts are positive, considerable year-to-year variation in the distribution of benefits between producers and consumers should be expected. The possibility exists for an economic measure to increase or decrease over a 20-year horizon, depending on the particular sequence of years.

Modeling the development of acquired clinical immunity to Plasmodium falciparum malaria

Individuals living in regions where malaria is endemic develop an acquired immunity to malaria which enables them to remain asymptomatic while still carrying parasites. Field studies indicate that cumulative exposure to a variety of diverse Plasmodium parasites is required for the transition from symptomatic to asymptomatic malaria. This study used a simulation model of the within-host dynamics of P. falciparum to investigate the development of acquired clinical immunity under different transmission conditions and levels of parasite diversity. Antibodies developed to P. falciparum erythrocyte membrane protein 1 (PfEMP1), a clonally variant molecule, were assumed to be a key human immunological response to P. falciparum infection, along with responses to clonally conserved but polymorphic antigens. The time to the development of clinical immunity was found to be proportional to parasite diversity and inversely proportional to transmission intensity. The effect of early termination of symptomatic infections by chemotherapy was investigated and found not to inhibit the host's ability to develop acquired immunity. However, the time required to achieve this state was approximately double that compared to when no treatment was administered. This study demonstrates that an immune response primarily targeted against PfEMP1 has the ability to reduce clinical symptoms of infections irrespective of whether treatment is administered, supporting its role in the development of acquired clinical immunity. The results also illustrate a novel use for simulation models of P. falciparum infections, investigation of the influence of intervention strategies on the development of naturally acquired clinical immunity.

Rice morphogenesis and plant architecture: Measurement, specification and the reconstruction of structural development by 3D architectural modelling

Background and Aims The morphogenesis and architecture of a rice plant, Oryza sativa, are critical factors in the yield equation, but they are not well studied because of the lack of appropriate tools for 3D measurement. The architecture of rice plants is characterized by a large number of tillers and leaves. The aims of this study were to specify rice plant architecture and to find appropriate functions to represent the 3D growth across all growth stages. Methods A japonica type rice, 'Namaga', was grown in pots under outdoor conditions. A 3D digitizer was used to measure the rice plant structure at intervals from the young seedling stage to maturity. The L-system formalism was applied to create '3D virtual rice' plants, incorporating models of phenological development and leaf emergence period as a function of temperature and photoperiod, which were used to determine the timing of tiller emergence. Key Results The relationships between the nodal positions and leaf lengths, leaf angles and tiller angles were analysed and used to determine growth functions for the models. The '3D virtual rice' reproduces the structural development of isolated plants and provides a good estimation of the fillering process, and of the accumulation of leaves. Conclusions The results indicated that the '3D virtual rice' has a possibility to demonstrate the differences in the structure and development between cultivars and under different environmental conditions. Future work, necessary to reflect both cultivar and environmental effects on the model performance, and to link with physiological models, is proposed in the discussion.

Does colonization asymmetry matter in metapopulations?

Despite the considerable evidence showing that dispersal between habitat patches is often asymmetric, most of the metapopulation models assume symmetric dispersal. In this paper, we develop a Monte Carlo simulation model to quantify the effect of asymmetric dispersal on metapopulation persistence. Our results suggest that metapopulation extinctions are more likely when dispersal is asymmetric. Metapopulation viability in systems with symmetric dispersal mirrors results from a mean field approximation, where the system persists if the expected per patch colonization probability exceeds the expected per patch local extinction rate. For asymmetric cases, the mean field approximation underestimates the number of patches necessary for maintaining population persistence. If we use a model assuming symmetric dispersal when dispersal is actually asymmetric, the estimation of metapopulation persistence is wrong in more than 50% of the cases. Metapopulation viability depends on patch connectivity in symmetric systems, whereas in the asymmetric case the number of patches is more important. These results have important implications for managing spatially structured populations, when asymmetric dispersal may occur. Future metapopulation models should account for asymmetric dispersal, while empirical work is needed to quantify the patterns and the consequences of asymmetric dispersal in natural metapopulations.

Investigation of the Effect of Array Geometry on the Performance of Free-Space Optical Interconnects

The effect of transmitter and receiver array configurations on the stray-light and diffraction-caused crosstalk in free-space optical interconnects was investigated. The optical system simulation software (Code V) is used to simulate both the stray-light and diffraction-caused crosstalk. Experimentally measured, spectrally-resolved, near-field images of VCSEL higher order modes were used as extended sources in our simulation model. In addition, we have included the electrical and optical noise in our analysis to give more accurate overall performance of the FSOI system. Our results show that by changing the square lattice geometry to a hexagonal configuration, we obtain an overall signal-to-noise ratio improvement of 3 dB. Furthermore, system density is increased by up to 4 channels/mm2.

Novel array geometries for free-space optical interconnects with improved signal-to-noise ratio

We investigate the effect of transmitter and receiver array configurations on the stray-light and diffraction-caused crosstalk in free-space optical interconnects. The optical system simulation software (Code V) is used to simulate both the stray-light and diffraction-caused crosstalk. Experimentally measured, spectrally-resolved, near-field images of VCSEL higher order modes were used as extended sources in our simulation model. Our results show that by changing the square lattice geometry to a hexagonal configuration, we obtain the reduction in the stray-light crosstalk of up to 9 dB and an overall signal-to-noise ratio improvement of 3 dB.