Coral reefs in a century of rapid environmental change

Coral reefs are the most diverse marine ecosystem and embrace possibly millions of plant, animal and protist species. Mutualistic symbioses are a fundamental feature of coral reefs that have been used to explain their structure, biodiversity and existence. Complex inter-relationships between hosts, habitats and symbionts belie closely coupled nutrient and community dynamics that create the circumstances for something from nothing (or the oasis in a nutrient desert). The flip side of these dynamics is a close dependency between species, which results in a series of non-linear relationships as conditions change. These responses are being highlighted as anthropogenic influences increase across the world's tropical and subtropical coastlines. Caribbean as well as Indo-Pacific coral populations are now in a serious decline in many parts of the world. This has resulted in a significant reorganization of how coral reef ecosystems function. Among the spectra of changes brought about by humans is rapid climate change. Mass coral bleaching - the loss of the dinoflagellate symbionts from reef-building corals - and mortality has affected the world's coral reefs with increasing frequency and intensity since the late 1970s. Mass bleaching events, which often cover thousands of square kilometres of coral reefs, are triggered by small increases (+1-3degreesC) in water temperature. These increases in sea temperature are often seen during warm phase weather conditions (e.g. ENSO) and are increasing in size and magnitude. The loss of living coral cover (e.g. 16% globally in 1998, an exceptionally warm year) is resulting in an as yet unspecified reduction in the abundance of a myriad of other species. Projections from general circulation models (GCM) used to project changes in global temperature indicate that conditions even under the mildest greenhouse gas emission scenarios may exceed the thermal tolerances of most reef-building coral communities. Research must now explore key issues such as the extent to which the thermal tolerances of corals and their symbionts are dynamic if bleaching and disease are linked; how the loss of high densities of reef-building coral will affect other dependent species; and, how the loss of coral populations will affect the millions of people globally who depend on coral reefs for their daily survival.

Global assessment of coral bleaching and required rates of adaptation under climate change

Elevated ocean temperatures can cause coral bleaching, the loss of colour from reef-building corals because of a breakdown of the symbiosis with the dinoflagellate Symbiodinium. Recent studies have warned that global climate change could increase the frequency of coral bleaching and threaten the long-term viability of coral reefs. These assertions are based on projecting the coarse output from atmosphere-ocean general circulation models (GCMs) to the local conditions around representative coral reefs. Here, we conduct the first comprehensive global assessment of coral bleaching under climate change by adapting the NOAA Coral Reef Watch bleaching prediction method to the output of a low- and high-climate sensitivity GCM. First, we develop and test algorithms for predicting mass coral bleaching with GCM-resolution sea surface temperatures for thousands of coral reefs, using a global coral reef map and 1985-2002 bleaching prediction data. We then use the algorithms to determine the frequency of coral bleaching and required thermal adaptation by corals and their endosymbionts under two different emissions scenarios. The results indicate that bleaching could become an annual or biannual event for the vast majority of the world's coral reefs in the next 30-50 years without an increase in thermal tolerance of 0.2-1.0 degrees C per decade. The geographic variability in required thermal adaptation found in each model and emissions scenario suggests that coral reefs in some regions, like Micronesia and western Polynesia, may be particularly vulnerable to climate change. Advances in modelling and monitoring will refine the forecast for individual reefs, but this assessment concludes that the global prognosis is unlikely to change without an accelerated effort to stabilize atmospheric greenhouse gas concentrations.

Reflecting on ethical and legal issues in wildlife disease

Disease in wildlife raises a number of issues that have not been widely considered in the bioethical literature. However, wildlife disease has major implications for human welfare. The majority of emerging human infectious diseases are zoonotic: that is, they occur in humans by cross-species transmission from animal hosts. Managing these diseases often involves balancing concerns with human health against animal welfare and conservation concerns. Many infectious diseases of domestic animals are shared with wild animals, although it is often unclear whether the infection spills over from wild animals to domestic animals or vice versa. Culling is the standard means of managing such diseases, bringing economic considerations, animal welfare and conservation into conflict. Infectious diseases are also major threatening processes in conservation biology and their appropriate management by culling, vaccination or treatment raises substantial animal ethics issues. One particular issue of great significance in Australia is an ongoing research program to develop genetically modified pathogens to control vertebrate pests including rabbits, foxes and house mice. Release of any self-replicating GMO vertebrate pathogen gives rise to a whole series of ethical questions. We briefly review current Australian legal responses to these problems. Finally, we present two unresolved problems of general importance that are exemplified by wildlife disease. First, to what extent can or should 'bioethics' be broadened beyond direct concerns with human welfare to animal welfare and environmental welfare? Second, how should the irreducible uncertainty of ecological systems be accounted for in ethical decision making?

Climate change manipulations show Antarctic flora is more strongly affected by elevated nutrients than water

Climate change is expected to affect the high latitudes first and most severely, rendering Antarctica one of the most significant baseline environments for the study of global climate change. The indirect effects of climate warming, including changes to the availability of key environmental resources, such as water and nutrients, are likely to have a greater impact upon continental Antarctic terrestrial ecosystems than the effects of fluctuations in temperature alone. To investigate the likely impacts of a wetter climate on Antarctic terrestrial communities a multiseason, manipulative field experiment was conducted in the floristically important Windmill Islands region of East Antarctica. Four cryptogamic communities (pure bryophyte, moribund bryophyte, crustose and fructicose lichen-dominated) received increased water and/or nutrient additions over two consecutive summer seasons. The increased water approximated an 18% increase in snow melt days (0.2 degrees C increase in temperature), while the nutrient addition of 3.5g Nm(-2) yr(-1) was within the range of soil N in the vicinity. A range of physiological and biochemical measurements were conducted in order to quantify the community response. While an overall increase in productivity in response to water and nutrient additions was observed, productivity appeared to respond more strongly to nutrient additions than to water additions. Pure bryophyte communities, and lichen communities dominated by the genus Usnea, showed stronger positive responses to nutrient additions, identifying some communities that may be better able to adapt and prosper under the ameliorating conditions associated with a warmer, wetter future climate. Under such a climate, productivity is overall likely to increase but some cryptogamic communities are likely to thrive more than others. Regeneration of moribund bryophytes appears likely only if a future moisture regime creates consistently moist conditions.

The influence of national culture on the level and outcome of IS decision making in the IS maintenance/redevelopment decision

Would the outcome of a Global multinational organization’s decision be the same if the same decision were to be made in different countries throughout the world? Within the same organization, we propose that national cultural differences can influence decision making in different countries and cultural clusters. While much work has been done on organizational cultural influences, this study examines the influence that national culture has on organizational decision making in respect to the evolution/redevelopment decision that organizations face when a system is believed to be entering the obsolescence phase. Building on findings from the Globe research program, we show by empirical testing of a theoretical model that national cultural dimensions are significantly associated with a) the outcome of the decision to enhance or re-develop a system, and b) the organizational level at which such decisions are made. This research is significant as a means to improve management decision making, particularly with regard to the enhancement versus re-development decision. The research suggests that a relatively uniform sub-culture exists across the global IS project level but that national cultural dimensions play a more important role in determining the organizational management level at which decisions are made.