Expertise and the perception of kinematic and situational probability information

Two experiments were conducted on the nature of expert perception in the sport of squash. In the first experiment, ten expert and fifteen novice players attempted to predict the direction and force of squash strokes from either a film display (occluded at variable time periods before and after the opposing player had struck the ball) or a matched point-light display (containing only the basic kinematic features of the opponent's movement pattern). Experts outperformed the novices under both display conditions, and the same basic time windows that characterised expert and novice pick-up of information in the film task also persisted in the point-light task. This suggests that the experts' perceptual advantage is directly related to their superior pick-up of essential kinematic information. In the second experiment, the vision of six expert and six less skilled players was occluded by remotely triggered liquid-crystal spectacles at quasi-random intervals during simulated match play. Players were required to complete their current stroke even when the display was occluded and their prediction performance was assessed with respect to whether they moved to the correct half of the court to match the direction and depth of the opponent's stroke. Consistent with experiment 1, experts were found to be superior in their advance pick-up of both directional and depth information when the display was occluded during the opponent's hitting action. However, experts also remained better than chance, and clearly superior to less skilled players, in their prediction performance under conditions where occlusion occurred before any significant pre-contact preparatory movement by the opposing player was visible. This additional source of expert superiority is attributable to their superior attunement to the information contained in the situational probabilities and sequential dependences within their opponent's pattern of play.

Assessment of Swedish snus for tobacco harm reduction: technical appendix

This technical appendix details the methods used in an assessment of the potential of snus for tobacco harm reduction using simulation modelling.

THE_PM_BOK_CODE

This paper puts forward the argument that PM is spreading because it is a well adapted collection of memes, and that the Project Management Institute (PMI®) Guide to the Project Management Body of Knowledge (PMBOK® Guide) version of project management (the PM_BOK Code) has more to do with the appearance of a capability for productivity than it does with actual productivity. It suggests that project management is evolving in a toxic manner, and that corporations will reap more benefit from it than people. The paper concludes with a call for a reformation of the PMBOK®.

And then came Complex Project Management

The subject of management is renowned for its addiction to fads and fashions. Project Management is no exception. The issue of interest for this paper is the establishment of the 'College of Complex Project Managers' and their 'competency standard for complex project managers.' Both have generated significant interest in the Project Management community, and like any other human endeavour they should be subject to critical evaluation. The results of this evaluation show significant flaws in the definition of complex in this case, the process by which the College and its standard have emerged, and the content of the standard. However, there is a significant case for a portfolio of research that extends the existing bodies of knowledge into large-scale complicated (or major) projects that would be owned by the relevant practitioner communities, rather than focused on one organization. Research questions are proposed that would commence this stream of activity towards an intelligent synthesis of what is required to manage in both complicated and truly complex environments.

Prevention of child behavior problems through universal implementation of a group behavioral family intervention.

The aim of this mental health promotion initiative was to evaluate the effectiveness of a universally delivered group behavioral family intervention (BFI) in preventing behavior problems in children. This study investigates the transferability of an efficacious clinical program to a universal prevention intervention delivered through child and community health services targeting parents of preschoolers within a metropolitan health region. A quasiexperimental two-group (BFI, n=804 vs. Comparison group, n=806) longitudinal design followed preschool aged children and their parents over a 2-year period. BFI was associated with significant reductions in parent-reported levels of dysfunctional parenting and parent-reported levels of child behavior problems. Effect sizes on child behavior problems ranged from large (.83) to moderate (.47). Positive and significant effects were also observed in parent mental health, marital adjustment, and levels of child rearing conflict. Findings are discussed with respect to their implication for significant population reductions in child behavior problems as well as the pragmatic challenges for prevention science in encouraging both the evaluation and uptake of preventive initiatives in real world settings.

Asset Price Instability and Policy Responses: The Legacy of Liberalisation

The debate about the dynamics and potential policy responses to asset inflation has intensified in recent years. Some analysts, notably Borio and Lowe, have called for 'subtle' changes to existing monetary targeting frameworks to try to deal with the problems of asset inflation and have attempted to developed indicators of financial vulnerability to aid this process. In contrast, this paper argues that the uncertainties involved in understanding financial market developments and their potential impact on the real economy are likely to remain too high to embolden policy makers. The political and institutional risks associated with policy errors are also significant. The fundamental premise that a liberalised financial system is based on 'efficient' market allocation cannot be overlooked. The corollary is that any serious attempt to stabilize financial market outcomes must involve at least a partial reversal of deregulation.