The burden of major depression avoidable by longer-term treatment strategies

Background: Major depression is the largest single cause of nonfatal disease burden in Australia. Effective drug and psychological treatments exist, yet are underused. Objective: To quantify the burden of disease currently averted in people seeking care for major depression and the amount of disease burden that could be averted in these people under optimal episodic and maintenance treatment strategies. Design: Modeling impact of current and optimal treatment strategies based on secondary analysis of mental health survey data, studies of the natural history of major depression, and meta-analyses of effectiveness data. Monte Carlo simulation of uncertainty in the model. Setting: The cohort of Australian adults experiencing an episode of major depression in 2000 are modeled through "what if" scenarios of no treatment, current treatment, and optimal treatment strategies with cognitive behavioral therapy or antidepressant drug treatment. Main Outcome Measure: Disability-Adjusted Life Year. Results: Current episodic treatment averts 9% (95% uncertainty interval, 6%-12%) of the disease burden of major depression in Australian adults. Optimal episodic treatment with cognitive behavioral therapy could avert 28% (95% uncertainty interval, 19%-39%) of this disease burden, and with drugs 24% (95% uncertainty interval, 19%-30%) could be averted. During the 5 years after an episode of major depression, current episodic treatment patterns would avert 13% (95% uncertainty interval, 10%-17%) of Disability-Adjusted Life Years, whereas maintenance drug treatment could avert 50% (95% uncertainty interval, 40%-60%) and maintenance cognitive behavioral therapy could avert 52% (95% uncertainty interval, 42%-64%), even if adherence of around 60% is taken into account. Conclusions: Longer-term maintenance drug or psychological treatment strategies are required to make significant inroads into the large disease burden associated with major depression in the Australian population.

The impact of a reduction in drug supply on demand for and compliance with treatment for drug dependence

Background: In early 2001, Australia experienced a sudden, dramatic and;sustained decrease in heroin availability that was accompanied by sharp increases in price and decreases in street level purity-the so-called heroin shortage. These unprecedented changes occurred in a context of widespread treatment availability, which made it possible for the first time to examine the impact of a sharp reduction in heroin supply in New South Wales (NSW) on entry to and adherence with treatment for heroin dependence. Given the evidence of drug substitution by some users. the current paper also examines the effects of the shortage on entry to treatment for other forms of drug dependence. Methods: Interrupted time-series analysis of the number of persons entering opioid pharmacotherapy and other treatment modalities in NSW for heroin dependence and for the treatment for other types of drug dependence. Findings: The heroin shortage was associated with a reduction in the number of younger persons entering opioid pharmacotherapy. There was a dramatic decrease in the number of persons entering heroin withdrawal or assessment only treatment episodes. There appear to have been small improvements in adherence to and retention in heroin treatment after the reduction in heroin supply. Relatively small increases were observed in numbers being treated for cocaine dependence. Conclusions: In the context of good treatment provision, a reduction in heroin supply appeared to produce modest improvements in intermediate outcomes. Supply and demand reduction measures, when both are implemented successfully, may be complementary. (c) 2005 Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.