Events in Indonesia: exploring the limits to formal tourism trends forecasting methods in complex crisis situations

The desire to know the future is as old as humanity. For the tourism industry the demand for accurate foretelling of the future course of events is a task that consumes considerable energy and is of great significance to investors. This paper examines the issue of forecasting by comparing forecasts of inbound tourism made prior to the political and economic crises that engulfed Indonesia from 1997 onwards with actual arrival figures. The paper finds that current methods of forecasting are not able to cope with unexpected crises and other disasters and that alternative methods need to be examined including scenarios, political risk and application of chaos theory. The paper outlines a framework for classifying shocks according to a scale of severity, probability, type of event, level of certainty and suggested forecasting tools for each scale of shock. (C) 2003 Elsevier Science Ltd. All rights reserved.

Potential economic implications for regional tourism of a Foot and Mouth Disease outbreak in North Queensland

International and domestic tourism are sensitive to disastrous events which make areas inaccessible to visitors, less attractive or more dangerous. One form of tourism disaster is the outbreak of an exotic disease, of which Foot and Mouth Disease (FMD) is a prime case. It is now well documented that the 2001 FMD outbreak in the UK had a greater impact on tourism than on agriculture. It has been estimated than an FMD outbreak in Australia would impose a cost of about $13 million. The impact on tourism would be highly dependent on the extent and duration of an FMD outbreak, as well as on any management and containment restrictions imposed by the authorities in their attempt to control and eventually eradicate the disease. Public perception and thus the provision of accurate information and the way in which the media report disasters will also play an important role in determining the impact on the tourism industry. The economy of Tropical North Queensland relies heavily on international visitors, and an FMD outbreak in the region would impose a large cost to the regional economy, conservatively estimated here to be of the order of $200 million per year.

Managing knowledge in tourism planning: How to assess your capability

This paper explores the theme of strategic planning in a State Tourism Organization (STO) from a knowledge management perspective. It highlights the value of knowledge in strategy making and the importance of an organisation's knowledge management agenda in facilitating a strategic planning process. In particular, it considers the capability of an STO to implement knowledge management as the key to a successful strategic planning exercise. In order to develop greater insight into the factors that impact on planning competence, the key aim of this paper is to develop a framework on which the capability of a STO to implement a knowledge-based agenda in strategic planning can be assessed. Research on knowledge management in the field of tourism is limited and there is little practical account of the application of knowledge management principles in tourism planning. Further, there is no apparent tool or instrument that allows for the assessment of an STO's capability to implement knowledge management in planning initiatives. Based on a literature review, a three-point framework of assessment is developed. The three elements of the framework are identified as: 1. Integration of knowledge management objectives with strategic imperatives; 2. A planning approach that balances top-down (outcome focused) with bottom-up (process focused) planning processes; and 3. Organisational capacity, including leadership, people and culture, process, technology, content and continuous improvement. The framework is tested through application to a practical case study - a planning initiative undertaken by a leading tourism STO in Australia. The results demonstrate that the framework is a useful means to evaluate organisational capability in knowledge-led strategic planning exercises and would be of practical value as a point of reference for future knowledge- based strategic planning projects. Copyright © by The Haworth Press, Inc. All rights reserved.

Achieving key dimensions of sustainability: Strategic visioning as a tourism destination planning tool

Tourism has had, and is continuing to have, a profound impact upon destinations, economically, environmentally and socially. The negative impacts of tourism have been attributed, among other things, to inadequate or non-existent planning frameworks for tourism development, and it has therefore been advocated that tourism planning is vital to offset some of these negative impacts. While several different approaches have been supported over the years, tourism planning based on the philosophies of sustainability has emerged as one ofthe most comprehensive approaches. However, two critical concepts have been identified as precursors to sustainable development: a strategic Qrientation towards tourism planning and enhanced levels of multiple stakeholder participation in the tourism planning process (Simpson 2001 ). While both strategic tourism planning and stakeholder participation and collaboration, have received considerable attention in the academic literature, there has been relatively little written about its practical application. However, the somewhat recent emergence of the strategic visioning concept as a destination planning tool may provide the necessary practical framework for incorporating stakeholder collaboration into destination strategic planning and management. This paper will provide a synthesis of the stakeholder collaboration, strategic planning and strategic visioning literatures, before conceptually examining the potential applicability._ of the strategic visioning process in achieving meaningful stakeholder participation and collaboration in destination planning.

Developing New Tourism Services: Dinosaurs a New Drive Tourism Resource for Remote Areas

This paper examines issues encountered when developing new tourism services generally, and specific aspects relating to the development of remote area dinosaur fossil fields for tourism. It studies two sites, one in the USA and one in Australia. Access to both sites is by minor roads, and both sites are characterised by long drives separating the sites from small communities that offer limited infrastructure and few other attractions for visitors. In both areas, however, tourism is seen as one of the few possible ways to sustain existing communities in the face of declining primary-industry-based employment. In general, tourists visiting these areas are on touring holidays of two weeks’ duration or more where the attraction is the general attributes of the region as well as to a lesser extent their interest in dinosaur fossils. These provide a potential resource for remote-region economic development through commodification as a new tourism attraction. Development of dinosaur fossil finds as a tourism resource is conceptualised here as new service development. Developing new tourism services, especially in remote regions, is challenging and has not been well examined in the tourism literature. The new service development process used in this case study first examines the characteristics of the existing tourists travelling through the region. The characteristics of a number of potential market segments currently interested in dinosaur fossils were then examined and contrasted with the existing market. This is conceptualised on a specialist-generalist spectrum of interest in fossils. A study of the tourist service features associated with dinosaur fossil tourism in remote regions of the USA was conducted, leading to the identification of a number of possible incremental development opportunities. The paper then takes a strategic approach to examining potential new tourism service development related to dinosaur fossils in remote regions of Queensland, Australia. In particular, it describes use of information about existing services in similar regions as the basis for ideas about development as well as comparison between existing and potential markets.