Events in Indonesia: exploring the limits to formal tourism trends forecasting methods in complex crisis situations

The desire to know the future is as old as humanity. For the tourism industry the demand for accurate foretelling of the future course of events is a task that consumes considerable energy and is of great significance to investors. This paper examines the issue of forecasting by comparing forecasts of inbound tourism made prior to the political and economic crises that engulfed Indonesia from 1997 onwards with actual arrival figures. The paper finds that current methods of forecasting are not able to cope with unexpected crises and other disasters and that alternative methods need to be examined including scenarios, political risk and application of chaos theory. The paper outlines a framework for classifying shocks according to a scale of severity, probability, type of event, level of certainty and suggested forecasting tools for each scale of shock. (C) 2003 Elsevier Science Ltd. All rights reserved.

Conceptualizing special interest tourism - frameworks for analysis

To advance understanding of Special Interest Tourism (SIT), this paper will explore the complexities of this phenomenon in the early 21st century. First, a look at what is out there, both from a supply and demand perspective, will serve to paint a broad picture at macro-level. The paper will present a discussion of the SIT phenomenon at the macro-level within a triangular relationship of supply, demand and media. Then, a more specific look at SIT attempts to clarify the ambiguity of the term. Finally, a look at micro-level from the consumer's perspective will introduce the concepts of enduring and situational involvement, and the nature of the product. Proposed frameworks are presented to provide structure and possible directions for future research and as a means of progressing conceptual development. (c) 2004 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.