Quasi-stationarity in populations that are subject to large-scale mortality or emigration

We shall examine a model, first studied by Brockwell et al. [Adv Appl Probab 14 (1982) 709.], which can be used to describe the longterm behaviour of populations that are subject to catastrophic mortality or emigration events. Populations can suffer dramatic declines when disease, such as an introduced virus, affects the population, or when food shortages occur, due to overgrazing or fluctuations in rainfall. However, perhaps surprisingly, such populations can survive for long periods and, although they may eventually become extinct, they can exhibit an apparently stationary regime. It is useful to be able to model this behaviour. This is particularly true of the ecological examples that motivated the present study, since, in order to properly manage these populations, it is necessary to be able to predict persistence times and to estimate the conditional probability distribution of population size. We shall see that although our model predicts eventual extinction, the time till extinction can be long and the stationary exhibited by these populations over any reasonable time scale can be explained using a quasistationary distribution. (C) 2001 Elsevier Science Ltd. All rights reserved.

On the existence of solutions to boundary value problems on time scales

This work formulates existence theorems for solutions to two-point boundary value problems on time scales. The methods used include maximum principles, a priori bounds and topological degree theory.

Turbulence in Hydraulic Jumps: Experimental Measurements

A hydraulic jump is the transition from a supercritical open channel flow to a subcritical regime. It is characterised by a highly turbulent flow with macro-scale vortices, some kinetic energy dissipation and a bubbly two-phase flow structure. New air-water flow measurements were performed in hydraulic jump flows for a range of inflow Froude numbers. The experiments were conducted in a large-size facility using two types of phase-detection intrusive probes: i.e., single-tip and double-tip conductivity probes. These were complemented by some measurements of free-surface fluctuations using ultrasonic displacement meters. The present study was focused on the turbulence characteristics of hydraulic jumps with partially-developed inflow conditions. The void fraction measurements showed the presence of an advective diffusion shear layer in which the void fractions profiles matched closely an analytical solution of the advective diffusion equation for air bubbles. The present results highlighted some influence of the inflow Froude number onto the air bubble entrainment process. At the largest Froude numbers, the advected air bubbles were more thoroughly dispersed vertically, and larger amount of air bubbles were detected in the turbulent shear layer. In the air-water mixing layer, the maximum void fraction and bubble count rate data showed some longitudinal decay function in the flow direction. Such trends were previously reported in the literature. The measurements of interfacial velocity and turbulence level distributions provided new information on the turbulent velocity field in the highly-aerated shear region. The present data suggested some longitudinal decay of the turbulence intensity. The velocity profiles tended to follow a wall jet flow pattern. The air–water turbulent time and length scales were deduced from some auto- and cross-correlation analyses based upon the method of CHANSON (2006,2007). The results provided the integral turbulent time and length scales of the eddy structures advecting the air bubbles in the developing shear layer. The experimental data showed that the auto-correlation time scale Txx was larger than the transverse cross-correlation time scale Txz. The integral turbulence length scale Lxz was a function of the inflow conditions, of the streamwise position (x-x1)/d1 and vertical elevation y/d1. Herein the dimensionless integral turbulent length scale Lxz/d1 was closely related to the inflow depth: i.e., Lxz/d1 = 0.2 to 0.8, with Lxz increasing towards the free-surface. The free-surface fluctuations measurements showed large turbulent fluctuations that reflected the dynamic, unsteady structure of the hydraulic jumps. A linear relationship was found between the normalized maximum free-surface fluctuation and the inflow Froude number.

Coupling of a Jahn-Teller pseudorotation with a hindered internal rotation in an isolated molecule: 9-hydroxytriptycene

The irregular vibronic structure in the S-1<--S-0 resonant two-photon ionization (R2PI) spectrum of supersonically cooled triptycene is a result of a classic Exe Jahn-Teller effect [A. Furlan et al., J. Chem. Phys. 96, 7306 (1992)]. This is well characterized and can be used as an effective probe of intramolecular perturbations. Here we examine the S-1<--S-0 R2PI spectrum of 9-hydroxytriptycene and the fluorescence from various excited state vibronic levels. In this system the pseudorotation of the Jahn-Teller vibration is strongly coupled to the torsional motion of the bridgehead hydroxy group. This torsional motion results in a tunneling splitting in both the ground and excited states. The population of the upper level in the ground electronic state results in additional vibronic transitions becoming symmetry allowed in the R2PI spectrum that are forbidden in the bare triptycene molecule. The assignment of the R2PI and fluorescence spectra allows the potential energy surfaces of these vibrational modes to be accurately quantified. The full C-3v vibronic point group must be used to interpret the spectra. The time scale of the internal rotation of the-OH group and the butterfly flapping of the Jahn-Teller pseudorotation are of similar magnitude. The tunneling between the nine minima on the three dimensional potential energy surface is such that the Jahn-Teller pseudorotation occurs in concert with the-OH internal rotation. The Berry phase that is acquired during this motion is discussed. The simple physical picture emerges of the angle between two of the three benzene moieties opening in three equivalent ways in the S-1 electronic state. This geometry follows the position of the hydroxy group, which preferentially orients itself to point between these two rings. (C) 1998 American Institute of Physics. [S0021-9606(98)02348-4].

The last glacial cycle from the humid tropics of northeastern Australia: comparison of a terrestrial and a marine record

A detailed pollen record from the Ocean Drilling Program Site 820 core, located on the upper part of the continental slope off the coast of northeast Queensland, was constructed to compare with the existing pollen record from Lynch's Crater on the adjacent Atherton Tableland and allow the production of a regional picture of vegetation and environmental change through the last glacial cycle. Some broad similarities in patterns of vegetation change are revealed, despite the differences between sites and their pollen catchments, which can be related largely to global climate and sea-level changes. The original estimated time scale of the Lynch's Crater record is largely confirmed from comparison with the more thoroughly dated ODP record. Conversely, the Lynch's Crater pollen record has assisted in dating problematic parts of the ODP record. In contrast to Lynch's Crater, which reveals a sharp and sustained reduction in drier araucarian forest around 38,000 yrs BP, considered to have been the result of burning by Aboriginal people, the ODP record indicates, most likely, a stepwise reduction, dating from 140,000 yrs BP or beyond. The earliest reduction shows lack of a clear connection between Araucaria decline and increased burning and suggests that people may not have been involved at this stage. However, a further decline in araucarian forest, possibly around 45,000 yrs BP, which has a more substantial environmental impact and is not related to a time of major climate change, is likely, at least partially, the result of human burning. The suggestion, from the ODP core oxygen isotope record, of a regional sea-surface temperature increase of around 4 degrees C between about 400,000 and 250,000 yrs BP, may have had some influence on the overall decline in Araucaria and its replacement by sclerophyll vegetation. (C) 2000 Elsevier Science B.V. All rights reserved.

Virtual plants - integrating architectural and physiological models

Recent advances in computer technology have made it possible to create virtual plants by simulating the details of structural development of individual plants. Software has been developed that processes plant models expressed in a special purpose mini-language based on the Lindenmayer system formalism. These models can be extended from their architectural basis to capture plant physiology by integrating them with crop models, which estimate biomass production as a consequence of environmental inputs. Through this process, virtual plants will gain the ability to react to broad environmental conditions, while crop models will gain a visualisation component. This integration requires the resolution of the fundamentally different time scales underlying the approaches. Architectural models are usually based on physiological time; each time step encompasses the same amount of development in the plant, without regard to the passage of real time. In contrast, physiological models are based in real time; the amount of development in a time step is dependent on environmental conditions during the period. This paper provides a background on the plant modelling language, then describes how widely-used concepts of thermal time can be implemented to resolve these time scale differences. The process is illustrated using a case study. (C) 1997 Elsevier Science Ltd.

Chronostratigraphy of the CRP-3 drillhole, Victoria Land Basin, Antarctica

An 823 m thick glaciomarine Cenozoic section sitting unconformably on the Lower Devonian Beacon Supergroup was recovered in CRP –3. This paper reviews the chronostratigraphical constraints for the Cenozoic section. Between 3 and 480.27 mbsf 23 unconformity bounded cycles of sediment were recorded. Each unconformity is thought to represent a hiatus of uncertain duration. Four magnetozones have been recognised from the Cenozoic section. The record is complex with several “tiny wiggles” recorded throughout. Biostratigraphical or Sr ages, which could be used to link these magnetozones to the magnetic polarity time scale are restricted to the upper 190 m of sediment. Two diatom datums (Cavitatus jouseanus at 48.9 mbsf and Rhizosolenica antarctica at 68.60 mbsf), together with five Sr-isotope dates derived from molluscan fragments taken from between 10.88 and 190.29 mbsf indicate an early Oligocene (c. 31 Ma) age for this interval. The appearance of a new species of the bivalve ?Adamussium at about 325 mbsf, suggests that the Oligocene age can be extended down to this level. This confirms that the dominantly reversed magnetozone (R1), recorded down to about 340 mbsf, is Chron C12r. The ages imply high sedimentation rates and only minimal time gaps at the sequence boundaries. Below 340 mbsf there are no independent datums to guide the correlation of the magnetozones to the magnetic polarity time scale. However, the absence of in situ dinocysts attributable to Transantarctic Flora, if not a result of environmental control, limits the age of the base of the hole to between c. 33.5 and 35 Ma.

Quantum measurement of coherent tunnelling between quantum dots

We describe the conditional and unconditional dynamics of two coupled quantum dots when one dot is subjected to a measurement of its occupation number by coupling it to a third readout dot via the Coulomb interaction. The readout dot is coupled to source and drain leads under weak bias, and a tunnel current flows through a single bound state when energetically allowed. The occupation of the quantum dot near the readout dot shifts the bound state of the readout dot from a low conducting state to a high conducting state. The measurement is made by continuously monitoring the tunnel current through the readout dot. We show that there is a difference between the time scale for the measurement-induced decoherence between the localized states of the dots, and the time scale on which the system becomes localized due to the measurement.

Solicitors disciplinary hearings in Queensland 1930-2000: a statistical analysis

This article reports on the results of a study undertaken by the author together with her research assistant, Heather Green. The study collected and analysed data from all disciplinary tribunal decisions heard in Queensland since 1930 in an attempt to provide empirical information which has previously been lacking. This article will outline the main features of the disciplinary system in Queensland, describe the research methodology used in the present study and then report on some findings from the study. Reported findings include a profile of solicitors who have appeared before a disciplinary hearing, the types of matters which have attracted formal discipline and the types of orders made by the tribunal. Much of the data is then presented on a time scale so as to reveal any changes over time.

Can long-distance dispersal be inferred from the New Zealand plant fossil record?

New Zealand is generally thought to have been physically isolated from the rest of the world for over 60 million years. But physical isolation may not mean biotic isolation, at least on the time scale of millions of years. Are New Zealand's present complement of plants the direct descendants of what originally rafted from Gondwana? Or has there been total extinction of this initial flora with replacement through long-distance dispersal (a complete biotic turnover)? These are two possible extremes which have come under recent discussion. Can the fossil record be used to decide the relative importance of the two endpoints, or is it simply too incomplete and too dependent on factors of chance? This paper suggests two approaches to the problem-the use of statistics to apply levels of confidence to first appearances in the fossil record and the analysis of trends based on the entire palynorecord. Statistics can suggest that the first appearance of a taxon was after New Zealand broke away from Gondwana-as long as the first appearance in the record was not due to an increase in biomass from an initially rare state. Two observations can be drawn from the overall palynorecord that are independent of changes in biomass: (1) The first appearance of palynotaxa common to both Australia and New Zealand is decidedly non-random. Most taxa occur first in Australia. This suggests a bias in air or water transport from west to east. (2) The percentage of endemic palynospecies in New Zealand shows no simple correlation with the time New Zealand drifted into isolation. The conifer macrorecord also hints at complete turnover since the Cretaceous.

Investigation of the flow field of a highly heated jet of air

Measurements of mean and fluctuating velocity and temperature and their self- and cross-products to the third-order are presented for a heated axisymmetric air jet. Froude numbers in the range of 3500 13,190, Reynolds numbers in the range of 3470-8500 and non-dimensional streamwise distances. X*, from 0.27 to 1.98 are covered by the data. It was found that turbulence intensity decreases for the heated jet in the region between the inertia dominated and the buoyancy dominated regions which is contrary to findings with helium jets mixing with ambient air to produce density fluctuations. The effects of heating on the turbulent kinetic energy budget and the temperature variance budget show small differences for the inertia dominated region and the intermediate region which help to explain the transition process to the far field plume region. Constants are evaluated for the isotropic eddy diffusivity and generalised gradient hypothesis models as well as the scalar variance model. No significant effect of heating on the dissipation time-scale ratio was found. A novel wire array with an inclined cold wire was used. Measurements obtained with this probe are found to lead to asymmetries in some of the higher-order products. Further investigation suggested that the asymmetries are attributable to an as yet unreported interference effect produced by the leading prong of the inclined temperature wire, The effect may also have implications for inclined velocity wires which contain a temperature component when used in heated flows. (C) 2002 Elsevier Science Inc. All rights reserved.

Genetic analysis of complex demographic scenarios: Spatially expanding populations of the cane toad, Bufo marinus

Inferring the spatial expansion dynamics of invading species from molecular data is notoriously difficult due to the complexity of the processes involved. For these demographic scenarios, genetic data obtained from highly variable markers may be profitably combined with specific sampling schemes and information from other sources using a Bayesian approach. The geographic range of the introduced toad Bufo marinus is still expanding in eastern and northern Australia, in each case from isolates established around 1960. A large amount of demographic and historical information is available on both expansion areas. In each area, samples were collected along a transect representing populations of different ages and genotyped at 10 microsatellite loci. Five demographic models of expansion, differing in the dispersal pattern for migrants and founders and in the number of founders, were considered. Because the demographic history is complex, we used an approximate Bayesian method, based on a rejection-regression algorithm. to formally test the relative likelihoods of the five models of expansion and to infer demographic parameters. A stepwise migration-foundation model with founder events was statistically better supported than other four models in both expansion areas. Posterior distributions supported different dynamics of expansion in the studied areas. Populations in the eastern expansion area have a lower stable effective population size and have been founded by a smaller number of individuals than those in the northern expansion area. Once demographically stabilized, populations exchange a substantial number of effective migrants per generation in both expansion areas, and such exchanges are larger in northern than in eastern Australia. The effective number of migrants appears to be considerably lower than that of founders in both expansion areas. We found our inferences to be relatively robust to various assumptions on marker. demographic, and historical features. The method presented here is the only robust, model-based method available so far, which allows inferring complex population dynamics over a short time scale. It also provides the basis for investigating the interplay between population dynamics, drift, and selection in invasive species.

U-series dating of Locality 15 at Zhoukoudian, China, and implications for hominid evolution

This paper reports U-series dates on speleothem samples from Locality 15 at Zhoukoudian, one of the richest Paleolithic sites in northern China. The age of the lower part of Layer 2 is securely bracketed between 155,000 and 284,000 yr. The underlying Layer 3 dates back at least 284,000 yr. Layer 4, further below, should be older still, possibly by a cycle on the SPECMAP time scale before 284,000 yr ago. These ages, much greater than the previous estimates of 110,000-140,000 yr from U-series and electron spin resonance dating of fossil teeth, suggest that Locality 15 was broadly contemporaneous with Locality 4 (New Cave) and with the uppermost strata of Locality 1 (Peking Man site). The physical evolution and cultural development evidenced by the timing of the Zhoukoudian localities are in line with the opinion of Chinese anthropologists for a regional transition from Homo erectus to archaic Homo sapiens. (C) 2004 University of Washington. All rights reserved.

Diel 'tuning' of coral metabolism: physiological responses to light cues

Hermatypic-zooxanthellate corals track the diel patterns of the main environmental parameters temperature, UV and visible light - by acclimation processes that include biochemical responses. The diel course of solar radiation is followed by photosynthesis rates and thereby elicits simultaneous changes in tissue oxygen tension due to the shift in photosynthesis/respiration balance. The recurrent patterns of sunlight are reflected in fluorescence yields, photosynthetic pigment content and activity of the two protective enzymes superoxide dismutase (SOD) and catalase (CAT), enzymes that are among the universal defenses against free radical damage in living tissue. All of these were investigated in three scleractinian corals: Favia favus, Plerogyra sinuosa and Goniopora lobata. The activity of SOD and CAT in the animal host followed the course of solar radiation, increased with the rates of photosynthetic oxygen production and was correlated with a decrease in the maximum quantum yield of photochemistry in Photosystem H (PSII) (Delta F'/F-m'). SOD and CAT activity in the symbiotic algae also exhibited a light intensity correlated pattern, albeit a less pronounced one. The observed rise of the free-radical-scavenger enzymes, with a time scale of minutes to several hours, is an important protective mechanism for the existence and remarkable success of the unique cnidarian-dinoflagellate associations, in which photosynthetic oxygen production takes place within animal cells. This represents a facet of the precarious act of balancing the photosynthetic production of oxygen by the algal symbionts with their destructive action on all living cells, especially those of the animal host.