Short-term electricity price forecasting using wavelet and SVM techniques

In deregulated electricity market, modeling and forecasting the spot price present a number of challenges. By applying wavelet and support vector machine techniques, a new time series model for short term electricity price forecasting has been developed in this paper. The model employs both historical price and other important information, such as load capacity and weather (temperature), to forecast the price of one or more time steps ahead. The developed model has been evaluated with the actual data from Australian National Electricity Market. The simulation results demonstrated that the forecast model is capable of forecasting the electricity price with a reasonable forecasting accuracy.

Anisotropy-based performance analysis of linear discrete time invariant control systems

The anisotropic norm of a linear discrete-time-invariant system measures system output sensitivity to stationary Gaussian input disturbances of bounded mean anisotropy. Mean anisotropy characterizes the degree of predictability (or colouredness) and spatial non-roundness of the noise. The anisotropic norm falls between the H-2 and H-infinity norms and accommodates their loss of performance when the probability structure of input disturbances is not exactly known. This paper develops a method for numerical computation of the anisotropic norm which involves linked Riccati and Lyapunov equations and an associated special type equation.

The relationship between the auditory brain-stem response and its reconstructed waveforms following discrete wavelet transformation

Objective: To examine the relationship between the auditory brain-stem response (ABR) and its reconstructed waveforms following discrete wavelet transformation (DWT), and to comment on the resulting implications for ABR DWT time-frequency analysis. Methods: ABR waveforms were recorded from 120 normal hearing subjects at 90, 70, 50, 30, 10 and 0 dBnHL, decomposed using a 6 level discrete wavelet transformation (DWT), and reconstructed at individual wavelet scales (frequency ranges) A6, D6, D5 and D4. These waveforms were then compared for general correlations, and for patterns of change due to stimulus level, and subject age, gender and test ear. Results: The reconstructed ABR DWT waveforms showed 3 primary components: a large-amplitude waveform in the low-frequency A6 scale (0-266.6 Hz) with its single peak corresponding in latency with ABR waves III and V; a mid-amplitude waveform in the mid-frequency D6 scale (266.6-533.3 Hz) with its first 5 waves corresponding in latency to ABR waves 1, 111, V, VI and VII; and a small-amplitude, multiple-peaked waveform in the high-frequency D5 scale (533.3-1066.6 Hz) with its first 7 waves corresponding in latency to ABR waves 1, 11, 111, IV, V, VI and VII. Comparisons between ABR waves 1, 111 and V and their corresponding reconstructed ABR DWT waves showed strong correlations and similar, reliable, and statistically robust changes due to stimulus level and subject age, gender and test ear groupings. Limiting these findings, however, was the unexplained absence of a small number (2%, or 117/6720) of reconstructed ABR DWT waves, despite their corresponding ABR waves being present. Conclusions: Reconstructed ABR DWT waveforms can be used as valid time-frequency representations of the normal ABR, but with some limitations. In particular, the unexplained absence of a small number of reconstructed ABR DWT waves in some subjects, probably resulting from 'shift invariance' inherent to the DWT process, needs to be addressed. Significance: This is the first report of the relationship between the ABR and its reconstructed ABR DWT waveforms in a large normative sample. (C) 2004 International Federation of Clinical Neurophysiology. Published by Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.

Is the method of signal analysis and test selection important for measuring standing balance in subjects with persistent whiplash?

Dizziness and or unsteadiness, associated with episodes of loss of balance, are frequent complaints in those suffering from persistent problems following a whiplash injury. Research has been inconclusive with respect to possible aetiology, discriminative tests and analyses used. The aim of this pilot research was to identify the test conditions and the most appropriate method for the analysis of sway that may differentiate subjects with persistent whiplash associated disorders (WAD) from healthy controls. The six conditions of the Clinical Test for Sensory Interaction in Balance was performed in both comfortable and tandem stance in 20 subjects with persistent WAD compared to 20 control subjects. The analyses were carried out using a traditional method of measurement, total sway distance, to results obtained from the use of wavelet analysis. Subjects with WAD were significantly less able to complete the tandem stance tests on a firm surface than controls. In comfortable stance, using wavelet analysis, significant differences between subjects with WAD and the control group were evident in total energy of the trace for all test conditions apart from eyes open on the firm surface. In contrast, the results of the analysis using total sway distance revealed no significant differences between groups across all six conditions. Wavelet analysis may be more appropriate for detecting disturbances in balance in whiplash subjects because the technique allows separation of the noise from the underlying systematic effect of sway. These findings will be used to direct future studies on the aeitiology of balance disturbances in WAD. (c) 2004 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Repeated occurrence of basal cell carcinoma of the skin and multifailure survival analysis: Follow-up data from the nambour skin cancer prevention trial

The aim of this study was to apply multifailure survival methods to analyze time to multiple occurrences of basal cell carcinoma (BCC). Data from 4.5 years of follow-up in a randomized controlled trial, the Nambour Skin Cancer Prevention Trial (1992-1996), to evaluate skin cancer prevention were used to assess the influence of sunscreen application on the time to first BCC and the time to subsequent BCCs. Three different approaches of time to ordered multiple events were applied and compared: the Andersen-Gill, Wei-Lin-Weissfeld, and Prentice-Williams-Peterson models. Robust variance estimation approaches were used for all multifailure survival models. Sunscreen treatment was not associated with time to first occurrence of a BCC (hazard ratio = 1.04, 95% confidence interval: 0.79, 1.45). Time to subsequent BCC tumors using the Andersen-Gill model resulted in a lower estimated hazard among the daily sunscreen application group, although statistical significance was not reached (hazard ratio = 0.82, 95% confidence interval: 0.59, 1.15). Similarly, both the Wei-Lin-Weissfeld marginal-hazards and the Prentice-Williams-Peterson gap-time models revealed trends toward a lower risk of subsequent BCC tumors among the sunscreen intervention group. These results demonstrate the importance of conducting multiple-event analysis for recurring events, as risk factors for a single event may differ from those where repeated events are considered.

Detection sensitivity and quantitation of Plasmodium falciparum var gene transcripts by real-time RT-PCR in comparison with conventional RT-PCR

Antigenic variation in Plasmodium falciparum erythrocyte membrane protein 1, caused by a switch in transcription of the encoding var gene, is an important feature of malaria. In this study, we quantified the relative abundance of var gene transcripts present in P. falciparum parasite clones using real-time reverse transcription-polymerase chain reaction (RT-PCR) and conventional RT-PCR combined with cloning and sequencing, with the aim of directly comparing the results obtained. When there was sufficient abundance of RNA for the real-time RT-PCR assay to be operating within the region of good reproducibility, RT-PCR and real-time RT-PCR tended to identify the same dominant transcript, although some transcript-specific issues were identified. When there were differences in the estimated relative amounts of minor transcripts, the RT-PCR assay tended to produce higher estimates than real-time RT-PCR. These results provide valuable information comparing RT-PCR and real-time RT-PCR analysis of samples with small quantities of RNA as might be expected in the analysis of field or clinical samples.

The collision branching process

We consider a branching model, which we call the collision branching process (CBP), that accounts for the effect of collisions, or interactions, between particles or individuals. We establish that there is a unique CBP, and derive necessary and sufficient conditions for it to be nonexplosive. We review results on extinction probabilities, and obtain explicit expressions for the probability of explosion and the expected hitting times. The upwardly skip-free case is studied in some detail.

Incorporating cognitive-behavioral therapy with occupational therapy: A comparative study with patients with low back pain

This paper reports on the implementation of a psychoeducational program utilizing cognitive-behavioral principles. The efficacy of this psychoeducational treatment program in modifying dysfunctional attitudes in patients with chronic low back pain was examined using a two-group pretest posttest design with a follow-lip at 3 months Thirty patients (average age = 44.37 SD = 13.71) participated in the study, with 15 in the psychoeducational treatment group and 15 in the placebo control group. These two conditions were added on to an existing eclectic inpatient pain management program. After assessment on the IPAM (The Integrated Psychosocial Assessment Model), scores were reduced to multivariate composite scores on the factors of illness behavior depressed and negative cognitions, and acute pain strategies. Results of a group x time repeated measures analysis of variance for the three pain factors revealed a significant main effect for group (F(23,1) = 5.00 p < .04), tempered by a significant interaction between group and rime on the 'depressed and negative' pain factor (F(23,1) = 4.77 p < .04). Patients in the treatment group improved significantly over time and significantly more than the placebo control group patients at posttreatment. Results provide support for the program in increasing patients' feelings of control over their pain and the use of positive coping strategies, while reducing perceived helplessness, depression, disability, and pain intensity.

Mammography screening participation: effects of a media campaign targeting Italian-speaking women

Objectives: To evaluate the effect of a radio and newspaper campaign encouraging Italian-speaking women aged 50-69 years to attend a population-based mammography screening program. Methods: A series of radio scripts and newspaper advertisements ran weekly in the Italian-language media over two, four-week periods. Monthly mammography screens were analysed to determine if numbers of Italian-speaking women in the program increased during the two campaign periods, using interrupted time series regression analysis. A survey of Italian-speaking women attending BreastScreen NSW during the campaign period (n=240) investigated whether individuals had heard or seen the advertisements. Results: There was no statistically significant difference in the number of initial or subsequent mammograms in Italian-speaking women between the campaign periods and the period prior to (or after) the campaign. Twenty per cent of respondents cited the Italian media campaign as a prompt to attend. Fifty per cent had heard the radio ad and 30% had seen the newspaper ad encouraging Italian-speaking women to attend BSNSW. The most common prompt to attend was the BSNSW invitation letter, followed by information or recommendation from a GP. Conclusion: Radio and newspaper advertisements developed for the Italian community did not significantly increase attendance to BSNSW. Implications: Measures of program effectiveness based on self-report may not correspond to aggregate screening behaviour. The development of the media campaign in conjunction with the Italian community, and the provision of appropriate levels of resourcing, did not ensure the media campaign's success.

Comparative effects of ageing and dementia of the Alzheimer type on orientation of visual attention

Age-related changes and the effects of dementia of the Alzheimer type (DAT) were investigated during a visual orienting attention task in which attention was pre-cued to one or other hemifields. Central cues were either valid, neutral, invalid or NoGo (inhibitory). The response time cost-benefit analysis showed a decreased benefit after valid cueing in the old compared with the young group with no change in the cost of invalid cueing. The older group were also slower over all cue types. These results suggest there is an age-related reduced ability to covertly orient attention in a visual hemifield before target onset. In contrast, the DAT group showed an increased response time benefit and showed a trend for a decreased cost in response time compared with controls. This was due to slowest response times after neutral cues. They also made significantly more response errors particularly following neutral cueing, and were less able to inhibit responses on NoGo trials than controls. The increased benefit and reduced cost found in the DAT group was interpreted as an impairment in dividing attention between left and right target locations.

Risk factors for non-haemorrhagic stroke in patients with coronary heart disease and the effect of lipid-modifying therapy with pravastatin

Objective To determine the relative importance of recognised risk factors for non-haemorrhagic stroke, including serum cholesterol and the effect of cholesterol-lowering therapy, on the occurrence of non-haemorrhagic stroke in patients enrolled in the LIPID (Long-term Intervention with Pravastatin in Ischaemic Disease) study. Design The LIPID study was a placebo-controlled, double-blind trial of the efficacy on coronary heart disease mortality of pravastatin therapy over 6 years in 9014 patients with previous acute coronary syndromes and baseline total cholesterol of 4-7 mmol/l. Following identification of patients who had suffered non-haemorrhagic stroke, a pre-specified secondary end point, multivariate Cox regression was used to determine risk in the total population. Time-to-event analysis was used to determine the effect of pravastatin therapy on the rate of non-haemorrhagic stroke. Results There were 388 non-haemorrhagic strokes in 350 patients. Factors conferring risk of future non-haemorrhagic stroke were age, atrial fibrillation, prior stroke, diabetes, hypertension, systolic blood pressure, cigarette smoking, body mass index, male sex and creatinine clearance. Baseline lipids did not predict non-haemorrhagic stroke. Treatment with pravastatin reduced non-haemorrhagic stroke by 23% (P= 0.016) when considered alone, and 21% (P= 0.024) after adjustment for other risk factors. Conclusions The study confirmed the variety of risk factors for non-haemorrhagic stroke. From the risk predictors, a simple prognostic index was created for nonhaemorrhagic stroke to identify a group of patients at high risk. Treatment with pravastatin resulted in significant additional benefit after allowance for risk factors. (C) 2002 Lippincott Williams Wilkins.

A quantitative state and transition model for the Mitchell grasslands of central western Queensland

Concerns of reduced productivity and land degradation in the Mitchell grasslands of central western Queensland were addressed through a range monitoring program to interpret condition and trend. Botanical and eclaphic parameters were recorded along piosphere and grazing gradients, and across fenceline impact areas, to maximise changes resulting from grazing. The Degradation Gradient Method was used in conjunction with State and Transition Models to develop models of rangeland dynamics and condition. States were found to be ordered along a degradation gradient, indicator species developed according to rainfall trends and transitions determined from field data and available literature. Astrebla spp. abundance declined with declining range condition and increasing grazing pressure, while annual grasses and forbs increased in dominance under poor range condition. Soil erosion increased and litter decreased with decreasing range condition. An approach to quantitatively define states within a variable rainfall environment based upon a time-series ordination analysis is described. The derived model could provide the interpretive framework necessary to integrate on-ground monitoring, remote sensing and geographic information systems to trace states and transitions at the paddock scale. However, further work is needed to determine the full catalogue of states and transitions and to refine the model for application at the paddock scale.

Metamorphosis of a scleractinian coral in response to microbial biofilms

Microorganisms have been reported to induce settlement and metamorphosis in a wide range of marine invertebrate species. However, the primary cue reported for metamorphosis of coral larvae is calcareous coralline algae (CCA). Herein we report the community structure of developing coral reef biofilms and the potential role they play in triggering the metamorphosis of a scleractinian coral. Two-week-old biofilms induced metamorphosis in less than 10% of larvae, whereas metamorphosis increased significantly on older biofilms, with a maximum of 41% occurring on 8-week-old microbial films. There was a significant influence of depth in 4- and 8-week biofilms, with greater levels of metamorphosis occurring in response to shallow-water communities. Importantly, larvae were found to settle and metamorphose in response to microbial biofilms lacking CCA from both shallow and deep treatments, indicating that microorganisms not associated with CCA may play a significant role in coral metamorphosis. A polyphasic approach consisting of scanning electron microscopy, fluorescence in situ hybridization (FISH), and denaturing gradient gel electrophoresis (DGGE) revealed that coral reef biofilms were comprised of complex bacterial and microalgal communities which were distinct at each depth and time. Principal-component analysis of FISH data showed that the Alphaproteobacteria, Betaproteobacteria, Gammaproteobacteria, and Cytophaga-Flavobacterium of Bacteroidetes had the largest influence on overall community composition. A low abundance of Archaea was detected in almost all biofilms, providing the first report of Archaea associated with coral reef biofilms. No differences in the relative densities of each subdivision of Proteobacteria were observed between slides that induced larval metamorphosis and those that did not. Comparative cluster analysis of bacterial DGGE patterns also revealed that there were clear age and depth distinctions in biofilm community structure; however, no difference was detected in banding profiles between biofilms which induced larval metamorphosis and those where no metamorphosis occurred. This investigation demonstrates that complex microbial communities can induce coral metamorphosis in the absence of CCA.

Use of multiple biomarkers for a molecular diagnosis of prostate cancer

The identification of biomarkers capable of providing a reliable molecular diagnostic test for prostate cancer (PCa) is highly desirabie clinically. We describe here 4 biomarkers, UDP-N-Acetyl-alpha-D-galactosamine transferase (GalNAc-T3; not previously associated with PCa), PSMA, Hepsin and DD3/PCA3, which, in combination, distinguish prostate cancer from benign prostate hyperplasia (BPH). GalNAc-T3 was identified as overexpressed in PCa tissues by microarray analysis, confirmed by quantitative real-time PCR and shown immunohistochemically to be localised to prostate epithelial cells with higher expression in malignant cells. Real-time quantitative PCR analysis across 21 PCa and 34 BPH tissues showed 4.6-fold overexpression of GalNAc-T3 (p = 0.005). The noncoding mRNA (DD3/PCA3) was overexpressed 140-fold (p = 0.007) in the cancer samples compared to BPH tissues. Hepsin was overexpressed 21-fold (p = 0.049, whereas the overexpression for PSMA was 66-fold (p = 0.047). When the gene expression data for these 4 biomarkers was combined in a logistic regression model, a predictive index was obtained that distinguished 100% of the PCa samples from all of the BPH samples. Therefore, combining these genes in a real-time PCR assay represents a powerful new approach to diagnosing PCa by molecular profiling. (c) 2005 Wiley-Liss, Inc.