Global assessment of coral bleaching and required rates of adaptation under climate change

Elevated ocean temperatures can cause coral bleaching, the loss of colour from reef-building corals because of a breakdown of the symbiosis with the dinoflagellate Symbiodinium. Recent studies have warned that global climate change could increase the frequency of coral bleaching and threaten the long-term viability of coral reefs. These assertions are based on projecting the coarse output from atmosphere-ocean general circulation models (GCMs) to the local conditions around representative coral reefs. Here, we conduct the first comprehensive global assessment of coral bleaching under climate change by adapting the NOAA Coral Reef Watch bleaching prediction method to the output of a low- and high-climate sensitivity GCM. First, we develop and test algorithms for predicting mass coral bleaching with GCM-resolution sea surface temperatures for thousands of coral reefs, using a global coral reef map and 1985-2002 bleaching prediction data. We then use the algorithms to determine the frequency of coral bleaching and required thermal adaptation by corals and their endosymbionts under two different emissions scenarios. The results indicate that bleaching could become an annual or biannual event for the vast majority of the world's coral reefs in the next 30-50 years without an increase in thermal tolerance of 0.2-1.0 degrees C per decade. The geographic variability in required thermal adaptation found in each model and emissions scenario suggests that coral reefs in some regions, like Micronesia and western Polynesia, may be particularly vulnerable to climate change. Advances in modelling and monitoring will refine the forecast for individual reefs, but this assessment concludes that the global prognosis is unlikely to change without an accelerated effort to stabilize atmospheric greenhouse gas concentrations.

Genetic structure of a reef-building coral from thermally distinct environments on the Great Barrier Reef

Adaptation to localised thermal regimes is facilitated by restricted gene flow, ultimately leading to genetic divergence among populations and differences in their physiological tolerances. Allozyme analysis of six polymorphic loci was used to assess genetic differentiation between nine populations of the reef-building coral Acropora millepora over a latitudinal temperature gradient on the inshore regions of the Great Barrier Reef (GBR). Small but significant genetic differentiation indicative of moderate levels of gene flow (pairwise F-ST 0.023 to 0.077) was found between southern populations of A. millepora in cooler regions of the GBR and the warmer, central or northern GBR populations. Patterns of genetic differentiation at these putatively neutral allozyme loci broadly matched experimental variation in thermal tolerance and were consistent with local thermal regimes (warmest monthly-averages) for the A. millepora populations examined. It is therefore hypothesized that natural selection has influenced the thermal tolerance of the A. millepora populations examined and greater genetic divergence is likely to be revealed by examination of genetic markers under the direct effects of natural selection.

Tolerance of endolithic algae to elevated temperature and light in the coral Montipora monasteriata from the southern Great Barrier Reef

Photosynthetic endolithic algae and cyanobacteria live within the skeletons of many scleractinians. Under normal conditions, less than 5% of the photosynthetically active radiation (PAR) reaches the green endolithic algae because of the absorbance of light by the endosymbiotic dinoflagellates and the carbonate skeleton. When corals bleach (loose dinoflagellate symbionts), however, the tissue of the corals become highly transparent and photosynthetic microendoliths may be exposed to high levels of both thermal and solar stress. This study explores the consequence of these combined stresses on the phototrophic endoliths inhabiting the skeleton of Montipora monasteriata, growing at Heron Island, on the southern Great Barrier Reef. Endoliths that were exposed to sun after tissue removal were by far more susceptible to thermal photoinhibition and photo-damage than endoliths under coral tissue that contained high concentrations of brown dinoflagellate symbionts. While temperature or light alone did not result in decreased photosynthetic efficiency of the endoliths, combined thermal and solar stress caused a major decrease and delayed recovery. Endoliths protected under intact tissue recovered rapidly and photoacclimated soon after exposure to elevated sea temperatures. Endoliths under naturally occurring bleached tissue of M. monasteriata colonies (bleaching event in March 2004 at Heron Island) acclimated to increased irradiance as the brown symbionts disappeared. We suggest that two major factors determine the outcome of thermal bleaching to the endolith community. The first is the microhabitat and light levels under which a coral grows, and the second is the susceptibility of the coral-dinoflagellates symbiosis to thermal stress. More resistant corals may take longer to bleach allowing endoliths time to acclimate to a new light environment. This in turn may have implications for coral survival.

Adaptive responses of wild mungbean (Vigna radiata ssp sublobata) to photo-thermal environment. II. Growth, biomass, and seed yield

The leaf growth, dry matter production, and seed yield of 11 wild mungbean ( Vigna radiata ssp. sublobata) accessions of diverse geographic origin were observed under natural and artificial photoperiod temperature conditions, to determine the extent to which genotypic differences could be attributed to adaptive responses to photo-thermal environment. Environments included serial sowings in the field in SE Queensland, complemented by artificial photoperiod extension and controlled-environment growth rooms. Photo-thermal environment influenced leaf growth, total dry matter production ( TDM), and seed yield directly, through effects of ( mainly cool) temperature on growth, and indirectly, through effects on phenology. In terms of direct effects, leaf production, leaf expansion, and leaf area were all sensitive to temperature, with implied base temperatures higher than usually observed in cultivated mungbean ( V. radiata ssp. radiata). Genotypic sensitivity to temperature varied systematically with accession provenance and appeared to be of adaptive significance. In terms of the indirect effects of photo-thermal environment, genotypic and environmental effects on TDM were positively related to changes in total growth duration, and harvest index was negatively related to the period from sowing to flowering, similar to cultivated mungbean. However, seed yield was positively related to the duration of reproductive growth, reflecting the indeterminate growth habit of the wild accessions. As a consequence, the wild accessions are more responsive to favourable environments than typically observed in cultivated mungbean, which is determinate in habit. It is suggested that the introduction of the indeterminate trait into mungbean from the wild subspecies would increase the responsiveness of mungbean to favourable environments, analogous to that of black gram ( V. mungo). Although the wild subspecies appeared more sensitive to cool temperature than cultivated mungbean, it may provide a source of tolerance to the warmer temperatures experienced during the wet season in the tropics.