12 resultados para Term structure of interest rate

em University of Queensland eSpace - Australia


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A simulation-based modelling approach is used to examine the effects of stratified seed dispersal (representing the distribution of the majority of dispersal around the maternal parent and also rare long-distance dispersal) on the genetic structure of maternally inherited genomes and the colonization rate of expanding plant populations. The model is parameterized to approximate postglacial oak colonization in the UK, but is relevant to plant populations that exhibit stratified seed dispersal. The modelling approach considers the colonization of individual plants over a large area (three 500 km x 10 km rolled transects are used to approximate a 500 km x 300 km area). Our approach shows how the interaction of plant population dynamics with stratified dispersal can result in a spatially patchy haplotype structure. We show that while both colonization speeds and the resulting genetic structure are influenced by the characteristics of the dispersal kernel, they are robust to changes in the periodicity of long-distance events, provided the average number of long-distance dispersal events remains constant. We also consider the effects of additional physical and environmental mechanisms on plant colonization. Results show significant changes in genetic structure when the initial colonization of different haplotypes is staggered over time and when a barrier to colonization is introduced. Environmental influences on survivorship and fecundity affect both the genetic structure and the speed of colonization. The importance of these mechanisms in relation to the postglacial spread and genetic structure of oak in the UK is discussed.

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Subsequent to the influential paper of [Chan, K.C., Karolyi, G.A., Longstaff, F.A., Sanders, A.B., 1992. An empirical comparison of alternative models of the short-term interest rate. Journal of Finance 47, 1209-1227], the generalised method of moments (GMM) has been a popular technique for estimation and inference relating to continuous-time models of the short-term interest rate. GMM has been widely employed to estimate model parameters and to assess the goodness-of-fit of competing short-rate specifications. The current paper conducts a series of simulation experiments to document the bias and precision of GMM estimates of short-rate parameters, as well as the size and power of [Hansen, L.P., 1982. Large sample properties of generalised method of moments estimators. Econometrica 50, 1029-1054], J-test of over-identifying restrictions. While the J-test appears to have appropriate size and good power in sample sizes commonly encountered in the short-rate literature, GMM estimates of the speed of mean reversion are shown to be severely biased. Consequently, it is dangerous to draw strong conclusions about the strength of mean reversion using GMM. In contrast, the parameter capturing the levels effect, which is important in differentiating between competing short-rate specifications, is estimated with little bias. (c) 2006 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

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The present paper investigates the characteristics of short-term interest rates in several countries. We examine the importance of nonlinearities in the mean reversion and volatility of short-term interest rates. We examine various models that allow the conditional mean (drift) and conditional variance (diffusion) to be functions of the current short rate.We find that different markets require different models. In particular, we find evidence of nonlinear mean reversion in some of the countries that we examine, linear mean reversion in others and no mean reversion in some countries. For all countries we examine, there is strong evidence of the need for the volatility of interest rate changes to be highly sensitive to the level of the short-term interest rate. Out-of-sample forecasting performance of one-factor short rate models is poor, stemming from the inability of the models to accommodate jumps and discontinuities in the time series data.

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Genetic assignment methods use genotype likelihoods to draw inference about where individuals were or were not born, potentially allowing direct, real-time estimates of dispersal. We used simulated data sets to test the power and accuracy of Monte Carlo resampling methods in generating statistical thresholds for identifying F-0 immigrants in populations with ongoing gene flow, and hence for providing direct, real-time estimates of migration rates. The identification of accurate critical values required that resampling methods preserved the linkage disequilibrium deriving from recent generations of immigrants and reflected the sampling variance present in the data set being analysed. A novel Monte Carlo resampling method taking into account these aspects was proposed and its efficiency was evaluated. Power and error were relatively insensitive to the frequency assumed for missing alleles. Power to identify F-0 immigrants was improved by using large sample size (up to about 50 individuals) and by sampling all populations from which migrants may have originated. A combination of plotting genotype likelihoods and calculating mean genotype likelihood ratios (D-LR) appeared to be an effective way to predict whether F-0 immigrants could be identified for a particular pair of populations using a given set of markers.

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The effects of short-term fasting and prolonged fasting during aestivation on the morphology of the proximal small intestine and associated organs were investigated in the green-striped burrowing frog, Cyclorana alboguttata (Anura: Hylidae). Animals were fasted for 1 week while active or for 3-9 months during aestivation. Short-duration fasting (1 week) had little effect on the morphology of the small intestine, whilst prolonged fasting during aestivation induced marked enteropathy including reductions in intestinal mass, length and diameter, longitudinal fold height and tunica muscularis thickness. Enterocyte morphology was also affected markedly by prolonged fasting: enterocyte cross-sectional area and microvillous height were reduced during aestivation, intercellular spaces were visibly reduced and the prevalence of lymphocytes amongst enterocytes was increased. Mitochondria and nuclei were also affected by 9 months of aestivation with major disruptions to mitochondrial cristae and increased clumping of nuclear material and increased infolding of the nuclear envelope. The present study demonstrates that the intestine of an aestivating frog responds to prolonged food deprivation during aestivation by reducing in size, presumably to reduce the energy expenditure of the organ.

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The solution structure of one of the first members of the cyclotide family of macrocyclic peptides to be discovered, circulin B has been determined and compared with that of circulin A and related cyclotides. Cyclotides are mini-proteins derived from plants that have the characteristic features of a head-to-tail cyclised peptide backbone and a knotted arrangement of their three disulfide bonds. First discovered because of their uterotonic or anti-HIV activity, they have also been reported to have activity against a range of Gram positive and Gram negative bacteria as well as fungi. The aim of the current study was to develop structure-activity relationships to rationalise this antimicrobial activity. Comparison of cyclotide structures and activities suggests that the presence and location of cationic residues may be a requirement for activity against Gram negative bacteria. Understanding the topological differences associated with the antimicrobial activity of the cyclotides is of significant interest and potentially may be harnessed for pharmaceutical applications.

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Background: The age-related loss of muscle power in older adults is greater than that of muscle strength and is associated with a decline in physical performance. Objective: To investigate the effects of a short-term high-velocity varied resistance training programme on physical performance in healthy community-dwelling adults aged 60-80 years. Methods: Subjects undertook exercise (EX; n = 15) or maintained customary activity (controls, CON; n = 10) for 8 weeks. The EX group trained 2 days/week using machine weights for three sets of eight repetitions at 35, 55, and 75% of their one-repetition maximum (the maximal weight that an individual can lift once with acceptable form) for seven upper- and lower-body exercises using explosive concentric movements. Results: Fourteen EX and 10 CON subjects completed the study. Dynamic muscle strength significantly increased (p = 0.001) in the EX group for all exercises (from 21.4 +/- 9.6 to 82.0 +/- 59.2%, mean +/- SD) following training, as did knee extension power (p < 0.01). Significant improvement occurred for the EX group in the floor rise to standing (10.4 &PLUSMN; 11.5%, p = 0.004), usual 6-metre walk (6.6 &PLUSMN; 8.2%, p = 0.010), repeated chair rise (10.4 &PLUSMN; 15.6%, p = 0.013), and lift and reach (25.6 &PLUSMN; 12.1%, p = 0.002) performance tasks but not in the CON group. Conclusions: Progressive resistance training that incorporates rapid rate-of-force development movements may be safely undertaken in healthy older adults and results in significant gains in muscle strength, muscle power, and physical performance. Such improvements could prolong functional independence and improve the quality of life. Copyright (C) 2005 S. Karger AG, Basel.

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It is widely accepted that cellulose is the rate-limiting substrate in the anaerobic digestion of organic solid wastes and that cellulose solubilisation is largely mediated by surface attached bacteria. However, little is known about the identity or the ecophysiology of cellulolytic microorganisms from landfills and anaerobic digesters. The aim of this study was to investigate an enriched cellulolytic microbial community from an anaerobic batch reactor. Chemical oxygen demand balancing was used to calculate the cellulose solubilisation rate and the degree of cellulose solubilisation. Fluorescence in situ hybridisation (FISH) was used to assess the relative abundance and physical location of three groups of bacteria belonging to the Clostridium lineage of the Firmicutes that have been implicated as the dominant cellulose degraders in this system. Quantitation of the relative abundance using FISH showed that there were changes in the microbial community structure throughout the digestion. However, comparison of these results to the process data reveals that these changes had no impact on the cellulose solubilisation in the reactor. The rate of cellulose solubilisation was approximately stable for much of the digestion despite changes in the cellulolytic population. The solubilisation rate appears to be most strongly affected by the rate of surface area colonisation and the biofilm architecture with the accepted model of first order kinetics due to surface area limitation applying only when the cellulose particles are fully covered with a thin layer of cells. (c) 2005 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

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Ecological and genetic studies of marine turtles generally support the hypothesis of natal homing, but leave open the question of the geographical scale of genetic exchange and the capacity of turtles to shift breeding sites. Here we combine analyses of mitochondrial DNA (mtDNA) variation and recapture data to assess the geographical scale of individual breeding populations and the distribution of such populations through Australasia. We conducted multiscale assessments of mtDNA variation among 714 samples from 27 green turtle rookeries and of adult female dispersal among nesting sites in eastern Australia. Many of these rookeries are on shelves that were flooded by rising sea levels less than 10 000 years (c. 450 generations) ago. Analyses of sequence variation among the mtDNA control region revealed 25 haplotypes, and their frequency distributions indicated 17 genetically distinct breeding stocks (Management Units) consisting either of individual rookeries or groups of rookeries in general that are separated by more than 500 km. The population structure inferred from mtDNA was consistent with the scale of movements observed in long-term mark-recapture studies of east Australian rookeries. Phylogenetic analysis of the haplotypes revealed five clades with significant partitioning of sequence diversity (Phi = 68.4) between Pacific Ocean and Southeast Asian/Indian Ocean rookeries. Isolation by distance was indicated for rookeries separated by up to 2000 km but explained only 12% of the genetic structure. The emerging general picture is one of dynamic population structure influenced by the capacity of females to relocate among proximal breeding sites, although this may be conditional on large population sizes as existed historically across this region.

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