Are there non-linearities in short-term interest rates?

The present paper investigates the characteristics of short-term interest rates in several countries. We examine the importance of nonlinearities in the mean reversion and volatility of short-term interest rates. We examine various models that allow the conditional mean (drift) and conditional variance (diffusion) to be functions of the current short rate.We find that different markets require different models. In particular, we find evidence of nonlinear mean reversion in some of the countries that we examine, linear mean reversion in others and no mean reversion in some countries. For all countries we examine, there is strong evidence of the need for the volatility of interest rate changes to be highly sensitive to the level of the short-term interest rate. Out-of-sample forecasting performance of one-factor short rate models is poor, stemming from the inability of the models to accommodate jumps and discontinuities in the time series data.

The genetic structure of Australasian green turtles (Chelonia mydas): exploring the geographical scale of genetic exchange

Ecological and genetic studies of marine turtles generally support the hypothesis of natal homing, but leave open the question of the geographical scale of genetic exchange and the capacity of turtles to shift breeding sites. Here we combine analyses of mitochondrial DNA (mtDNA) variation and recapture data to assess the geographical scale of individual breeding populations and the distribution of such populations through Australasia. We conducted multiscale assessments of mtDNA variation among 714 samples from 27 green turtle rookeries and of adult female dispersal among nesting sites in eastern Australia. Many of these rookeries are on shelves that were flooded by rising sea levels less than 10 000 years (c. 450 generations) ago. Analyses of sequence variation among the mtDNA control region revealed 25 haplotypes, and their frequency distributions indicated 17 genetically distinct breeding stocks (Management Units) consisting either of individual rookeries or groups of rookeries in general that are separated by more than 500 km. The population structure inferred from mtDNA was consistent with the scale of movements observed in long-term mark-recapture studies of east Australian rookeries. Phylogenetic analysis of the haplotypes revealed five clades with significant partitioning of sequence diversity (Phi = 68.4) between Pacific Ocean and Southeast Asian/Indian Ocean rookeries. Isolation by distance was indicated for rookeries separated by up to 2000 km but explained only 12% of the genetic structure. The emerging general picture is one of dynamic population structure influenced by the capacity of females to relocate among proximal breeding sites, although this may be conditional on large population sizes as existed historically across this region.

Inflation expectations, interest rates and arbitrary income transfers

Unexpected inflation, disinflation or deflation cause arbitrary income transfers between an economy's borrowers and lenders. This redistribution results from distorted real interest rates that are too high when price level changes are over-predicted and too low when they are under-predicted. This article shows that in Australia's case, inflation expectations were mostly biased upwards throughout the 1990s, according to the Melbourne Institute of Applied Economic and Social Research series and to a new derived series based on bond yields, implying that real interest rates were too high over this time. In turn, this caused substantial arbitrary income transfers from debtors to creditors, estimated to have averaged up to 3 per cent of gross domestic product over the period.

Genetic diversity and population structure of Tasmanian devils, the largest marsupial carnivore

Genetic diversity and population structure were investigated across the core range of Tasmanian devils (Sarcophilus laniarius; Dasyuridae), a wide-ranging marsupial carnivore restricted to the island of Tasmania. Heterozygosity (0.386-0.467) and allelic diversity (2.7-3.3) were low in all subpopulations and allelic size ranges were small and almost continuous, consistent with a founder effect. Island effects and repeated periods of low population density may also have contributed to the low variation. Within continuous habitat, gene flow appears extensive up to 50 km (high assignment rates to source or close neighbour populations; nonsignificant values of pairwise F-ST), in agreement with movement data. At larger scales (150-250 km), gene flow is reduced (significant pairwise F-ST) but there is no evidence for isolation by distance. The most substantial genetic structuring was observed for comparisons spanning unsuitable habitat, implying limited dispersal of devils between the well-connected, eastern populations and a smaller northwestern population. The genetic distinctiveness of the northwestern population was reflected in all analyses: unique alleles; multivariate analyses of gene frequency (multidimensional scaling, minimum spanning tree, nearest neighbour); high self-assignment (95%); two distinct populations for Tasmania were detected in isolation by distance and in Bayesian model-based clustering analyses. Marsupial carnivores appear to have stronger population subdivisions than their placental counterparts.

Short-term effects of carbon source on the competition of polyphosphate accumulating organisms and glycogen accumulating organisms

The effectiveness of enhanced biological phosphorus removal (ESPR) systems is directly affected by the competition of polyphosphate accumulating organisms (PAOs) and glycogen accumulating organisms (GAOs). This study investigated the short-term effects of carbon source on PAO and GAO performance. The tests were designed to clearly determine the impact of volatile fatty acid (VFA) composition on the performance of two types of biomass, one enriched for PAOs and the other for GAOs. The two populations were enriched in separate reactors using identical operating conditions and very similar influent compositions with acetate as the sole carbon source. The only difference was that a very tow level of phosphorus was present in the influent to the GAO reactor. The abundance of PAOs and GAOs was quantified using fluorescence in-situ hybridisation. The results clearly show that there are some very distinctive differences between PAOs and GAOs in their ability to utilise different carbon substrates. While both are able to take up acetate rapidly and completely, the GAOs are far slower at consuming propionate than the PAOs during short-term substrate changes. This provides a potentially highly valuable avenue to influence the competition between PAOs and GAOs. Other VFAs studied seem to be less usable in the short term by both PAOs and GAOs; as indicated by their much lower uptake rates.

The impact of prolonged fasting during aestivation on the structure of the small intestine in the green-striped burrowing frog, Cyclorana alboguttata

The effects of short-term fasting and prolonged fasting during aestivation on the morphology of the proximal small intestine and associated organs were investigated in the green-striped burrowing frog, Cyclorana alboguttata (Anura: Hylidae). Animals were fasted for 1 week while active or for 3-9 months during aestivation. Short-duration fasting (1 week) had little effect on the morphology of the small intestine, whilst prolonged fasting during aestivation induced marked enteropathy including reductions in intestinal mass, length and diameter, longitudinal fold height and tunica muscularis thickness. Enterocyte morphology was also affected markedly by prolonged fasting: enterocyte cross-sectional area and microvillous height were reduced during aestivation, intercellular spaces were visibly reduced and the prevalence of lymphocytes amongst enterocytes was increased. Mitochondria and nuclei were also affected by 9 months of aestivation with major disruptions to mitochondrial cristae and increased clumping of nuclear material and increased infolding of the nuclear envelope. The present study demonstrates that the intestine of an aestivating frog responds to prolonged food deprivation during aestivation by reducing in size, presumably to reduce the energy expenditure of the organ.

Structure of circulin B and implications for antimicrobial activity of the cyclotides

The solution structure of one of the first members of the cyclotide family of macrocyclic peptides to be discovered, circulin B has been determined and compared with that of circulin A and related cyclotides. Cyclotides are mini-proteins derived from plants that have the characteristic features of a head-to-tail cyclised peptide backbone and a knotted arrangement of their three disulfide bonds. First discovered because of their uterotonic or anti-HIV activity, they have also been reported to have activity against a range of Gram positive and Gram negative bacteria as well as fungi. The aim of the current study was to develop structure-activity relationships to rationalise this antimicrobial activity. Comparison of cyclotide structures and activities suggests that the presence and location of cationic residues may be a requirement for activity against Gram negative bacteria. Understanding the topological differences associated with the antimicrobial activity of the cyclotides is of significant interest and potentially may be harnessed for pharmaceutical applications.