Are there non-linearities in short-term interest rates?

The present paper investigates the characteristics of short-term interest rates in several countries. We examine the importance of nonlinearities in the mean reversion and volatility of short-term interest rates. We examine various models that allow the conditional mean (drift) and conditional variance (diffusion) to be functions of the current short rate.We find that different markets require different models. In particular, we find evidence of nonlinear mean reversion in some of the countries that we examine, linear mean reversion in others and no mean reversion in some countries. For all countries we examine, there is strong evidence of the need for the volatility of interest rate changes to be highly sensitive to the level of the short-term interest rate. Out-of-sample forecasting performance of one-factor short rate models is poor, stemming from the inability of the models to accommodate jumps and discontinuities in the time series data.

The genetic structure of Australasian green turtles (Chelonia mydas): exploring the geographical scale of genetic exchange

Ecological and genetic studies of marine turtles generally support the hypothesis of natal homing, but leave open the question of the geographical scale of genetic exchange and the capacity of turtles to shift breeding sites. Here we combine analyses of mitochondrial DNA (mtDNA) variation and recapture data to assess the geographical scale of individual breeding populations and the distribution of such populations through Australasia. We conducted multiscale assessments of mtDNA variation among 714 samples from 27 green turtle rookeries and of adult female dispersal among nesting sites in eastern Australia. Many of these rookeries are on shelves that were flooded by rising sea levels less than 10 000 years (c. 450 generations) ago. Analyses of sequence variation among the mtDNA control region revealed 25 haplotypes, and their frequency distributions indicated 17 genetically distinct breeding stocks (Management Units) consisting either of individual rookeries or groups of rookeries in general that are separated by more than 500 km. The population structure inferred from mtDNA was consistent with the scale of movements observed in long-term mark-recapture studies of east Australian rookeries. Phylogenetic analysis of the haplotypes revealed five clades with significant partitioning of sequence diversity (Phi = 68.4) between Pacific Ocean and Southeast Asian/Indian Ocean rookeries. Isolation by distance was indicated for rookeries separated by up to 2000 km but explained only 12% of the genetic structure. The emerging general picture is one of dynamic population structure influenced by the capacity of females to relocate among proximal breeding sites, although this may be conditional on large population sizes as existed historically across this region.

Long-term potentiation of synaptic transmission in the avian hippocampus

The avian hippocampus plays a pivotal role in memory required for spatial navigation and food storing. Here we have examined synaptic transmission and plasticity within the hippocampal formation of the domestic chicken using an in vitro slice preparation. With the use of sharp microelectrodes we have shown that excitatory synaptic inputs in this structure are glutamatergic and activate both NMDA-and AMPA-type receptors on the postsynaptic membrane. In response to tetanic stimulation, the EPSP displayed a robust long-term potentiation (LTP) lasting >1 hr. This LTP was unaffected by blockade of NMDA receptors or chelation of postsynaptic calcium. Application of forskolin increased the EPSP and reduced paired-pulse facilitation: (PPF), indicating an increase in release probability. In contrast, LTP was not associated with a change in the PPF ratio. Induction of LTP did not occlude the effects of forskolin. Thus, in contrast to NMDA receptor-independent LTP in the mammalian brain, LTP in the chicken hippocampus is not attributable to a change in the probability of transmitter release and does not require activation of adenylyl cyclase, These findings indicate that a novel form of synaptic plasticity might underlie learning in the avian hippocampus.

Trends in the incidence, severity, and short-term outcome of stroke in Perth, Western Australia

Background and Purpose-This report describes trends in the key indices of cerebrovascular disease over 6 years from the end of the 1980s in a geographically defined segment of the city of Perth, Western Australia. Methods-Identical methods were used to find and assess all cases of suspected stroke in a population of approximately 134 000 residents in a triangular area of the northern suburbs of Perth. Case fatality was measured as vital status at 28 days after the onset of symptoms. Data for first-ever strokes and for all strokes for equivalent periods of 12 months in 1989-1990 and 1995-1996 were compared by age-standardized rates and proportions and Poisson regression. Results-There were 355 strokes in 328 patients and 251 first-ever strokes (71%) for 1989-1990 and 290 events in 281 patients and 213 first-ever strokes (73%) for 1995-1996. In Poisson models including age and period, overall trends in the incidence of both first-ever strokes (rate ratio = 0.75; 95% confidence limits, 0.63, 0.90) and all strokes (rate ratio = 0.73; 95% confidence limits, 0.62, 0.85) were obviously significant, but only the changes in men were independently significant. Case fatality did not change, and the balance between hemorrhagic and occlusive strokes in 1995-1996 was almost indistinguishable from that observed in 1989-1990. Conclusions-Our results, which are the only longitudinal population-based data available for Australia for key indices of stroke, suggest that it is a change in the frequency of stroke, rather than its outcome, that is chiefly responsible nationally for the fall in mortality from cerebrovascular disease.

Circular proteins in plants - Solution structure of a novel macrocyclic trypsin inhibitor from Momordica cochinchinensis

Much interest has been generated by recent reports on the discovery of circular (i.e. head-to-tail cyclized) proteins in plants. Here we report the three-dimensional structure of one of the newest such circular proteins, MCoTI-II, a novel trypsin inhibitor from Momordica cochinchinensis, a member of the Cucurbitaceae plant family. The structure consists of a small beta -sheet, several turns, and a cystine knot arrangement of the three disulfide bonds. Interestingly, the molecular topology is similar to that of the plant cyclotides (Craik, D. J., Daly, N. L., Bond, T., and Waine, C. (1999) J. Mol. Biol, 294, 1327-1336), which derive from the Rubiaceae and Violaceae plant families, have antimicrobial activities, and exemplify the cyclic cystine knot structural motif as part of their circular backbone. The sequence, biological activity, and plant family of MCoTI-II are all different from known cyclotides. However, given the structural similarity, cyclic backbone, and plant origin of MCoTI-II, we propose that MCoTI-II can be classified as a new member of the cyclotide class of proteins. The expansion of the cyclotides to include trypsin inhibitory activity and a new plant family highlights the importance and functional variability of circular proteins and the fact that they are more common than has previously been believed, Insights into the possible roles of backbone cyclization have been gained by a comparison of the structure of MCoTI-II with the homologous acyclic trypsin inhibitors CMTI-I and EETI-II from the Cucurbitaceae plant family.

Community structure of Quaternary coral reefs compared with Recent life and death assemblages

This paper assesses the reliability with which fossil reefs record the diversity and community structure of adjacent Recent reefs. The diversity and taxonomic composition of Holocene raised fossil reefs was compared with those of modern reef coral life and death assemblages in adjacent moderate and low-energy shallow reef habitats Of Madang Lagoon, Papua New Guinea. Species richness per sample area and Shannon-Wiener diversity (H') were highest in the fossil reefs, intermediate in the life assemblages, and lowest in the death assemblages. The taxonomic composition of the fossil reefs was most similar to the combination of the life and death assemblages from the modern reefs adjacent to the two fossil reefs. Depth zonation was recorded accurately in the fossil reefs. The Madang fossil reefs represent time-averaged composites of the combined life and death assemblages as they existed at the time the reef was uplifted. Because fossil reefs include overlapping cohorts from the life and death assemblages, lagoonal facies of fossil reefs are dominated by the dominant sediment-producing taxa, which are not necessarily the most abundant in the life assemblage. Rare or slow-growing taxa accumulate more slowly than the encasing sediments and are underrepresented in fossil reef lagoons. Time-averaging dilutes the contribution of rare taxa, rather than concentrating their contribution. Consequently, fidelity indices developed for mollusks in sediments yield low values in coral reef death and fossil assemblages. Branching corals dominate lagoonal facies of fossil reefs because they are abundant, they grow and produce sediment rapidly, and most of the sediment they produce is not exported. Fossil reefs distinguished kilometer-scale variations in community structure more clearly than did the modern life assemblages. This difference implies that fossil,reefs may provide a better long-term record of community structure than modern reefs. This difference also suggests that modern kilometer-scale variation in coral reef community structure may have been reduced by anthropogenic degradation, even in the relatively unimpacted reefs of Madang Lagoon. Holocene and Pleistocene fossil reefs provide a time-integrated historical record of community composition and may be used as long-term benchmarks for comparison with modern, degraded, nearshore reefs. Comparisons between fossil reefs and degraded modern reefs display gross changes in community structure more effectively than they demonstrate local extinction of rare taxa.

Long-term survival of women with breast cancer in New South Wales

Several long-term studies of breast cancer survival have shown continued excess mortality from breast cancer up to 20-40 years following treatment. The purpose of this report was to investigate temporal trends in long-term survival from breast cancer in all New South Wales (NSW) women. Breast cancer cases incident in 1972-1996 (54,228) were derived from the NSW Central Cancer Registry a population-based registry which began in 1972. All cases of breast cancer not known to be dead were matched against death records. The expected survival for NSW women was derived from published annual life tables. Relative survival analysis compared the survival of cancer cases with the age, sex and period matched mortality of the total population. Cases were considered alive at the end of 1996, except when known to be dead. Proportional hazards regression was employed to model survival on age, period and degree of spread at diagnosis. Survival at 5, 10, 15, 20 and 25 years of follow-up was 76 per cent, 65 per cent, 60 per cent, 57 per cent and 56 per cent. The annual hazard rate for excess mortality was 4.3 per cent in year 1, maximal at 6.5 per cent in year 3, declining to 4.7 per cent in year 5, 2.7 per cent in year 10, 1.4 per cent in year 15, 1.0 per cent for years 16-20, and 0.4 per cent for years 20-25 of follow-up. Relative survival was highest in 40-49 year-olds. Cases diagnosed most recently (1992-1996) had the highest survival, compared with cases diagnosed in previous periods. Five-year survival improved over time, especially from the late 1980s for women in the screening age group (50-69 years). Survival was highest for those with localised cancer at diagnosis: 88.4 per cent, 79.1 per cent, 74.6 per cent, 72.7 per cent and 72.8 per cent at 5, 10, 15, 20 and 25 years follow-up (excluding those aged greater than or equal to 70 years). There was no significant difference between the survival of the breast cancer cases and the general population at 20-25 years follow-up. Degree of spread was less predictive of survival 5-20 years after diagnosis, compared with 0-5 years after diagnosis, and was not significant at 20-25 years of follow-up. Relative survival from breast cancer in NSW women continues to decrease to 25 years after diagnosis, but there is little excess mortality after 15 years follow-up, especially for those with localised cancer at diagnosis, and the minimal excess mortality at 20-25 years of follow-up is not statistically significant. (C) 2002 Elsevier Science Ltd. All rights reserved.

Solution structure of χ-conopeptide MrIA, a modulator of the human norepinephrine transporter

The chi-conopeptides MrIA and MrIB are 13-residue peptides with two disulfide bonds that inhibit human and rat norepinephrine transporter systems and are of significant interest for the design of novel drugs involved in pain treatment. In the current study we have determined the solution structure of MrIA using NMR spectroscopy. The major element of secondary structure is a hairpin with the two strands connected by an inverse gamma-turn. The residues primarily involved in activity have previously been shown to be located in the turn region (Sharpe, I. A.; Palant, E.: Schroder, C. L; Kaye, D. M.; Adams, D. I.; Alewood, P. F.; Lewis, R. J. J Biol Client 2003, 278, 40317-40323), which appears to be more flexible than the beta-strands based on disorder in the ensemble of calculated structures. Analogues of MrIA with N-terminal truncations indicate that the N-terminal residues play a role in defining a stable conformation and the native disulfide connectivity. In particular, noncovalent interactions between Val3 and Hypl2 are likely to be involved in maintaining a stable conformation. The N-terminus also affects activity, as a single N-terminal deletion introduced additional pharmacology at rat vas deferens, while deleting the first two amino acids reduced chi-conopeptide potency. This article was originally published online as an accepted preprint. The Published Online date corresponds to the preprint version. You can request a copy of the preprint by entailing the Biopolymers editorial office at biopolymers@wiley.com (c) 2005 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

Long-Term Effects of Specific Stabilizing Exercises for First-Episode Low Back Pain

Study Design. A randomized clinical trial with 1-year and 3-year telephone questionnaire follow-ups. Objective. To report a specific exercise intervention’s long-term effects on recurrence rates in acute, first-episode low back pain patients. Summary of Background Data. The pain and disability associated with an initial episode of acute low back pain (LBP) is known to resolve spontaneously in the short-term in the majority of cases. However, the recurrence rate is high, and recurrent disabling episodes remain one of the most costly problems in LBP. A deficit in the multifidus muscle has been identified in acute LBP patients, and does not resolve spontaneously on resolution of painful symptoms and resumption of normal activity. Any relation between this deficit and recurrence rate was investigated in the long-term. Methods. Thirty-nine patients with acute, first-episode LBP were medically managed and randomly allocated to either a control group or specific exercise group. Medical management included advice and use of medications. Intervention consisted of exercises aimed at rehabilitating the multifidus in cocontraction with the transversus abdominis muscle. One year and three years after treatment, telephone questionnaires were conducted with patients. Results. Questionnaire results revealed that patients from the specific exercise group experienced fewer recurrences of LBP than patients from the control group. One year after treatment, specific exercise group recurrence was 30%, and control group recurrence was 84% (P , 0.001). Two to three years after treatment, specific exercise group recurrence was 35%, and control group recurrence was 75% (P , 0.01). Conclusion. Long-term results suggest that specific exercise therapy in addition to medical management and resumption of normal activity may be more effective in reducing low back pain recurrences than medical management and normal activity alone. [Key Words: multifidus, low back pain, rehabilitation]

Long-term outcomes of genetic counseling in women at increased risk of developing hereditary breast cancer Information,

This multicenter study evaluated the impact of genetic counseling in 218 women at risk of developing hereditary breast cancer. Women were assessed prior to counseling and 12-month post-counseling using self-administered, mailed questionnaires. Compared to baseline, breast cancer genetics knowledge was increased significantly at follow-up. and greater increases in knowledge were associated with educational level. Breast cancer anxiety decreased significantly from baseline to follow-up, and these decreases were associated with improvements in perceived risk. A significant decrease in clinical breast examination was observed at the 12-month follow-up. Findings suggest that women with a family history of breast cancer benefit from attending familial cancer clinics as it leads to increases in breast cancer genetics knowledge and decreases in breast cancer anxiety. The lowered rates of clinical breast examination indicate that the content of genetic counseling may need to be reviewed to ensure that women receive and take away the right message. (C) 2001 Elsevier Science Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.

Use of GnRH agonist implants for long-term suppression of fertility in extensively managed heifers and cows

The ability of gonadotrophin releasing hormone (GnRH) agonist implants to suppress ovarian activity and prevent pregnancies, long-term, was examined in heifers and cows maintained under extensive management. At three cattle stations, heifers (2-year-old) and older cows (3- to 16-year-old) were assigned to a control group that received no treatment, or were treated with high-dose (12 mg, Station A) or low-dose (8 mg, Station B and Station Q GnRH agonist implants. The respective numbers of control and GnRH agonist-treated animals (heifers + cows) at each station were: Station A, 20 and 99; Station B, 19 and 89; Station C, 20 and 76. Animals were maintained with 4% bulls and monitored for pregnancy at 2-monthly intervals for approximately 12 months. Pregnancy rates for control heifers and control cows ranged from 60-90% and 80-100%, respectively, depending on the study site. The respective number of animals (heifers + cows) treated with GnRH agonist that conceived, and days to first conception, were: Station A, 9 (9%) and 336 3 days; Station B, 8 (10%) and 244 +/- 13 days; Station C, 20 (26%) and 231 +/- 3 days. Treatment with high-dose GnRH agonist prevented pregnancies for longer (similar to300 days) than treatment with low-dose GnRH agonist (similar to200 days). In the majority of heifers and cows treated with GnRH agonist, ovarian follicular growth was restricted to early antral follicles (2-4 mm). The findings indicate that GnRH agonist implants have considerable potential as a practical technology to suppress ovarian activity and control reproduction in female cattle maintained in extensive rangelands environments. The technology also has broader applications in diverse cattle production systems. (C) 2002 Elsevier Science B.V. All rights reserved.