Australia, the United States and a 'China growing strong': managing conflict avoidance

How to deal with a rising China constitutes one of the most seminal challenges facing the ANZUS alliance since its inception a half a century ago. Australia must reconcile its geography and economic interests in Asia with its post-war strategic and historic cultural orientation towards the United States. It must succeed in this policy task without alienating either Beijing or Washington in the process. The extent to which this is achieved will shape Australia's national security posture for decades to come. Three specific components of the 'Sino-American-Australian' triangle are assessed here: the future of Taiwan, the American development of a National Missile Defence (NMD), and the interplay between Sino-American power balancing and multilateral security politics. The policy stakes for Australia and for the continued viability of ANZUS are high in all three policy areas as a new US Administration takes office in early 2001. The article concludes that Australia's best interest is served by applying deliberate modes of decisionmaking in its own relations with both China and the US and by facilitating consistent and systematic dialogue and consultations with both of those great powers on key strategic issues.

Divorce, dispersal and incest avoidance in the cooperatively breeding superb fairy-wren Malurus cyaneus

1. Between 1988 and 2001, we studied social relationships in the superb fairy-wren Malurus cyaneus (Latham), a cooperative breeder with male helpers in which extra-group fertilizations are more common than within-pair fertilizations. 2. Unlike other fairy-wren species, females never bred on their natal territory. First-year females dispersed either directly from their natal territory to a breeding vacancy or to a foreign 'staging-post' territory where they spent their first winter as a subordinate. Females dispersing to a foreign territory settled in larger groups. Females on foreign territories inherited the territory if the dominant female died, and were sometimes able to split the territory into two by pairing with a helper male. However, most dispersed again to obtain a vacancy. 3. Females dispersing from a staging post usually gained a neighbouring vacancy, but females gaining a vacancy directly from their natal territory travelled further, perhaps to avoid pairing or mating with related males. 4. Females frequently divorced their partner, although the majority of relationships were terminated by the death of one of the pair. If death did not intervene, one-third of pairings were terminated by female-initiated divorce within 1000 days. 5. Three divorce syndromes were recognized. First, females that failed to obtain a preferred territory moved to territories with more helpers. Secondly, females that became paired to their sons when their partner died usually divorced away from them. Thirdly, females that have been in a long relationship divorce once a son has gained the senior helper position. 6. Dispersal to avoid pairing with sons is consistent with incest avoidance. However, there may be two additional benefits. Mothers do not mate with their sons, so dispersal by the mother liberates her sons to compete for within-group matings. Further, divorcing once their son has become a breeder or a senior helper allows the female to start sons in a queue for dominance on another territory. Females that do not take this option face constraints on their ability to recruit more sons into the local neighbourhood.

Habitat-predator association and avoidance in rainbowfish (Melanotaenia spp.)

The ability to recall the location of a predator and later avoid it was tested in nine populations of rainbowfish (Melanotaenia spp.), representing three species from a variety of environments. Following the introduction of a model predator into a particular microhabitat, the model was removed, the arena rotated and the distribution of the fish recorded again. In this manner it could be determined what cues the fish relied on in order to recall the previous location of the predator model. Fish from all populations but one (Dirran Creek) were capable of avoiding the predator by remembering either the location and/or the microhabitat in which the predator was recently observed. Reliance on different types of visual cues appears to vary between populations but the reason for this variation remains elusive. Of the ecological variables tested (flow variability, predator density and habitat complexity), only the level of predation appeared to be correlated with the orientation technique employed by each population. There was no effect of species identity, which suggests that the habitat that each population occupies plays a strong role in the development of both predator avoidance responses and the cues used to track predators in the wild.