Modelling the conversion of Colombian lowland ecosystems since 1940: Drivers, patterns and rates

In biologically mega-diverse countries that are undergoing rapid human landscape transformation, it is important to understand and model the patterns of land cover change. This problem is particularly acute in Colombia, where lowland forests are being rapidly cleared for cropping and ranching. We apply a conceptual model with a nested set of a priori predictions to analyse the spatial and temporal patterns of land cover change for six 50-100 km(2) case study areas in lowland ecosystems of Colombia. Our analysis included soil fertility, a cost-distance function, and neighbourhood of forest and secondary vegetation cover as independent variables. Deforestation and forest regrowth are tested using logistic regression analysis and an information criterion approach to rank the models and predictor variables. The results show that: (a) overall the process of deforestation is better predicted by the full model containing all variables, while for regrowth the model containing only the auto-correlated neighbourhood terms is a better predictor; (b) overall consistent patterns emerge, although there are variations across regions and time; and (c) during the transformation process, both the order of importance and significance of the drivers change. Forest cover follows a consistent logistic decline pattern across regions, with introduced pastures being the major replacement land cover type. Forest stabilizes at 2-10% of the original cover, with an average patch size of 15.4 (+/- 9.2) ha. We discuss the implications of the observed patterns and rates of land cover change for conservation planning in countries with high rates of deforestation. (c) 2005 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Rainfall variability at decadal and longer time scales: signal or noise?

Rainfall variability occurs over a wide range of temporal scales. Knowledge and understanding of such variability can lead to improved risk management practices in agricultural and other industries. Analyses of temporal patterns in 100 yr of observed monthly global sea surface temperature and sea level pressure data show that the single most important cause of explainable, terrestrial rainfall variability resides within the El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) frequency domain (2.5-8.0 yr), followed by a slightly weaker but highly significant decadal signal (9-13 yr), with some evidence of lesser but significant rainfall variability at interclecadal time scales (15-18 yr). Most of the rainfall variability significantly linked to frequencies tower than ENSO occurs in the Australasian region, with smaller effects in North and South America, central and southern Africa, and western Europe. While low-frequency (LF) signals at a decadal frequency are dominant, the variability evident was ENSO-like in all the frequency domains considered. The extent to which such LF variability is (i) predictable and (ii) either part of the overall ENSO variability or caused by independent processes remains an as yet unanswered question. Further progress can only be made through mechanistic studies using a variety of models.

Modeling the age of tropical moist forest fragments in heavily-cleared lowland landscapes of Colombia

Increasingly, large areas of native tropical forests are being transformed into a mosaic of human dominated land uses with scattered mature remnants and secondary forests. In general, at the end of the land clearing process, the landscape will have two forest components: a stable component of surviving mature forests, and a dynamic component of secondary forests of different ages. As the proportion of mature forests continues to decline, secondary forests play an increasing role in the conservation and restoration of biodiversity. This paper aims to predict and explain spatial and temporal patterns in the age of remnant mature and secondary forests in lowland Colombian landscapes. We analyse the age distributions of forest fragments, using detailed temporal land cover data derived from aerial photographs. Ordinal logistic regression analysis was applied to model the spatial dynamics of mature and secondary forest patches. In particular, the effect of soil fertility, accessibility and auto-correlated neighbourhood terms on forest age and time of isolation of remnant patches was assessed. In heavily transformed landscapes, forests account for approximately 8% of the total landscape area, of which three quarters are comprised of secondary forests. Secondary forest growth adjacent to mature forest patches increases mean patch size and core area, and therefore plays an important ecological role in maintaining landscape structure. The regression models show that forest age is positively associated with the amount of neighbouring forest, and negatively associated with the amount of neighbouring secondary vegetation, so the older the forest is the less secondary vegetation there is adjacent to it. Accessibility and soil fertility also have a negative but variable influence on the age of forest remnants. The probability of future clearing if current conditions hold is higher for regenerated than mature forests. The challenge of biodiversity conservation and restoration in dynamic and spatially heterogeneous landscape mosaics composed of mature and secondary forests is discussed. (c) 2004 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

A processual analysis of basic emotions and sources of concerns as they are lived before and after a competition

Objectives: To examine the natural flow of (a) pre- and post-competition temporal patterns of intensity, frequency and daily mean level (a Composite measure of frequency and intensity) of basic emotions and (b) frequency of reports of competition-related and competition-extraneous concerns across time. Method: The Experience Sampling Method (ESM) was used, which permits the monitoring of the spontaneous flow of daily affective and cognitive experiences in the athletes' habitual environment. Thirty-nine male elite martial artists were assessed on 12 basic emotions and concerns at five random times a day across 1 week before and 3 days after a competition. On the competition day, the participants were assessed 1 h before and immediately after the contest. Results: Different patterns of change were observed for intensity and frequency of emotions and frequency of competition-related and competition-extraneous concerns. Frequency of fear was the most reactive affective component to competition vicinity. Increased frequency of some outcome-contingent negative emotions persisted for three days post-competition. The presence of negative emotions was the lowest in the post-competition days. Conclusions: This study confirms that, for a better understanding of the process of competitive stress, monitoring of both intensity and frequency of a wide range of emotions is needed. This research area may also benefit from analysing possible psychological spill-over between sport, competition and other life domains. (C) 2005 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Increased mortality and photoinhibition in the symbiotic dinoflagellates of the Indo-Pacific coral Stylophora pistillata (Esper) after summer bleaching

Coral bleaching (the loss of symbiotic dinoflagellates from reef-building corals) is most frequently caused by high-light and temperature conditions. We exposed the explants of the hermatypic coral Stylophora pistillata to four combinations of light and temperature in late spring and also in late summer. During mid-summer, two NOAA bleaching warnings were issued for Heron Island reef (Southern Great Barrier Reef, Australia) when sea temperature exceeded the NOAA bleaching threshold, and a 'mild' (in terms of the whole coral community) bleaching event occurred, resulting in widespread S. pistillata bleaching and mortality. Symbiotic dinoflagellate biomass decreased by more than half from late spring to late summer (from 2.5x10(6) to 0.8x10(6) dinoflagellates cm(2) coral tissue), and those dinoflagellates that remained after summer became photoinhibited more readily (dark-adapted F (V) : F (M) decreased to (0.3 compared with 0.4 in spring), and died in greater numbers (up to 17% dinoflagellate mortality compared with 5% in the spring) when exposed to artificially elevated light and temperature. Adding exogenous antioxidants (D-mannitol and L-ascorbic acid) to the water surrounding the coral had no clear effect on either photoinhibition or symbiont mortality. These data show that light and temperature stress cause mortality of the dinoflagellate symbionts within the coral, and that susceptibility to light and temperature stress is strongly related to coral condition. Photoinhibitory mechanisms are clearly involved, and will increase through a positive feedback mechanism: symbiont loss promotes further symbiont loss as the light microenvironment becomes progressively harsher.

Finding negative event oriented patterns in long temporal sequences

Pattern discovery in a long temporal event sequence is of great importance in many application domains. Most of the previous work focuses on identifying positive associations among time stamped event types. In this paper, we introduce the problem of defining and discovering negative associations that, as positive rules, may also serve as a source of knowledge discovery. In general, an event-oriented pattern is a pattern that associates with a selected type of event, called a target event. As a counter-part of previous research, we identify patterns that have a negative relationship with the target events. A set of criteria is defined to evaluate the interestingness of patterns associated with such negative relationships. In the process of counting the frequency of a pattern, we propose a new approach, called unique minimal occurrence, which guarantees that the Apriori property holds for all patterns in a long sequence. Based on the interestingness measures, algorithms are proposed to discover potentially interesting patterns for this negative rule problem. Finally, the experiment is made for a real application.

Finding temporal features of event-oriented patterns

A major task of traditional temporal event sequence mining is to predict the occurrences of a special type of event (called target event) in a long temporal sequence. Our previous work has defined a new type of pattern, called event-oriented pattern, which can potentially predict the target event within a certain period of time. However, in the event-oriented pattern discovery, because the size of interval for prediction is pre-defined, the mining results could be inaccurate and carry misleading information. In this paper, we introduce a new concept, called temporal feature, to rectify this shortcoming. Generally, for any event-oriented pattern discovered under the pre-given size of interval, the temporal feature is the minimal size of interval that makes the pattern interesting. Thus, by further investigating the temporal features of discovered event-oriented patterns, we can refine the knowledge for the target event prediction.

Finding event-oriented patterns in long temporal sequences

A major task of traditional temporal event sequence mining is to find all frequent event patterns from a long temporal sequence. In many real applications, however, events are often grouped into different types, and not all types are of equal importance. In this paper, we consider the problem of efficient mining of temporal event sequences which lead to an instance of a specific type of event. Temporal constraints are used to ensure sensibility of the mining results. We will first generalise and formalise the problem of event-oriented temporal sequence data mining. After discussing some unique issues in this new problem, we give a set of criteria, which are adapted from traditional data mining techniques, to measure the quality of patterns to be discovered. Finally we present an algorithm to discover potentially interesting patterns.

Pain differs from non-painful attention-demanding or stressful tasks in its effect on postural control patterns of trunk muscles

Pain changes postural activation of the trunk muscles. The cause of these changes is not known but one possibility relates to the information processing requirements and the stressful nature of pain. This study investigated this possibility by evaluating electromyographic activity (EMG) of the deep and superficial trunk muscles associated with voluntary rapid arm movement. Data were collected from control trials, trials during low back pain (LBP) elicited by injection of hypertonic saline into the back muscles, trials during a non-painful attention-demanding task, and during the same task that was also stressful. Pain did not change the reaction time (RT) of the movement, had variable effects on RT of the superficial trunk muscles, but consistently increased RT of the deepest abdominal muscle. The effect of the attention-demanding task was opposite: increased RT of the movement and the superficial trunk muscles but no effect on RT of the deep trunk muscles. Thus, activation of the deep trunk muscles occurred earlier relative to the movement. When the attention-demanding task was made stressful, the RT of the movement and superficial trunk muscles was unchanged but the RT of the deep trunk muscles was increased. Thus, the temporal relationship between deep trunk muscle activation and arm movement was restored. This means that although postural activation of the deep trunk muscles is not affected when central nervous system resources are limited, it is delayed when the individual is also under stress. However, a non-painful attention-demanding task does not replicate the effect of pain on postural control of the trunk muscles even when the task is stressful.

The evaluation of the spatial and temporal stability of sugarcane farm performance based on yield and commercial cane sugar

In broader catchment scale investigations, there is a need to understand and ultimately exploit the spatial variation of agricultural crops for an improved economic return. In many instances, this spatial variation is temporally unstable and may be different for various crop attributes and crop species. In the Australian sugar industry, the opportunity arose to evaluate the performance of 231 farms in the Tully Mill area in far north Queensland using production information on cane yield (t/ha) and CCS ( a fresh weight measure of sucrose content in the cane) accumulated over a 12-year period. Such an arrangement of data can be expressed as a 3-way array where a farm x attribute x year matrix can be evaluated and interactions considered. Two multivariate techniques, the 3-way mixture method of clustering and the 3-mode principal component analysis, were employed to identify meaningful relationships between farms that performed similarly for both cane yield and CCS. In this context, farm has a spatial component and the aim of this analysis was to determine if systematic patterns in farm performance expressed by cane yield and CCS persisted over time. There was no spatial relationship between cane yield and CCS. However, the analysis revealed that the relationship between farms was remarkably stable from one year to the next for both attributes and there was some spatial aggregation of farm performance in parts of the mill area. This finding is important, since temporally consistent spatial variation may be exploited to improve regional production. Alternatively, the putative causes of the spatial variation may be explored to enhance the understanding of sugarcane production in the wet tropics of Australia.

Temporal and spatial transcriptional programs in murine kidney development

We have performed a systematic temporal and spatial expression profiling of the developing mouse kidney using Compugen long-oligonucleotide microarrays. The activity of 18,000 genes was monitored at 24-h intervals from 10.5-day-postcoitum (dpc) metanephric mesenchyme (MM) through to neonatal kidney, and a cohort of 3,600 dynamically expressed genes was identified. Early metanephric development was further surveyed by directly comparing RNA from 10.5 vs. 11.5 vs. 13.5dpc kidneys. These data showed high concordance with the previously published dynamic profile of rat kidney development (Stuart RO, Bush KT, and Nigam SK. Proc Natl Acad Sci USA 98: 5649-5654, 2001) and our own temporal data. Cluster analyses were used to identify gene ontological terms, functional annotations, and pathways associated with temporal expression profiles. Genetic network analysis was also used to identify biological networks that have maximal transcriptional activity during early metanephric development, highlighting the involvement of proliferation and differentiation. Differential gene expression was validated using whole mount and section in situ hybridization of staged embryonic kidneys. Two spatial profiling experiments were also undertaken. MM (10.5dpc) was compared with adjacent intermediate mesenchyme to further define metanephric commitment. To define the genes involved in branching and in the induction of nephrogenesis, expression profiling was performed on ureteric bud (GFP+) FACS sorted from HoxB7-GFP transgenic mice at 15.5dpc vs. the GFP- mesenchymal derivatives. Comparisons between temporal and spatial data enhanced the ability to predict function for genes and networks. This study provides the most comprehensive temporal and spatial survey of kidney development to date, and the compilation of these transcriptional surveys provides important insights into metanephric development that can now be functionally tested.

Spatial and temporal variation in algal-assemblage structure in isolated dryland river waterholes, Cooper Creek and Warrego River, Australia

The scale at which algal biodiversity is partitioned across the landscape, and the biophysical processes and biotic interactions which shape these communities in dryland river refugia was studied on two occasions from 30 sites in two Australian dryland rivers. Despite the waterholes studied having characteristically high levels of abiogenic turbidity, a total of 186 planktonic microalgae, 253 benthic diatom and 62 macroalgal species were recorded. The phytoplankton communities were dominated by flagellated cryptophytes, euglenophytes and chlorophytes, the diatom communities by cosmopolitan taxa known to tolerate wide environmental conditions, and the macroalgal communities by filamentous cyanobacteria. All algal communities showed significant differences between catchments and sampling times, with a suite of between 5 and 12 taxa responsible for similar to 50% of the observed change. In general, algal assemblage patterns were poorly correlated with the measured environmental variables. Phytoplankton and diatom assemblage patterns were weakly correlated with several waterhole geomorphic measures, whereas macroalgal assemblage patterns showed some association with variability in ionic concentration.

Temporal variation in habitat use by nekton in a subtropical estuarine system

Utilisation by fish of different estuarine habitats is known to vary at many different temporal scales, however no study to date has examined how utilisation varies at all the relevant times scales simultaneously. Here, we compare the utilisation by fish of sandy, intertidal foreshore habitats in a subtropical estuary at four temporal scales: between major spawning periods (spring/ summer and winter), among months within spawning periods, between the full and new moon each month, and between night and day within those lunar phases. Comparisons of assemblage composition, abundance of individuals and of fish in seven different,ecological guilds' were used to identify the temporal scales at which fish varied their use of unvegetated sandy habitats in the lower Noosa Estuary, Queensland, Australia. Fish assemblages were sampled with a seine net at three different regions. The most numerically dominant species caught were southern herring (Herklotsichthys castelnaui: Clupeidae), sand whiting (Sillago ciliata: Sillaginidae), weeping toadfish (Torquigener pleurogramma: Tetraodomidae), and silver biddy (Gerres subfasciatus: Gerreidae). Considerable variation at a range of temporal scales from short term (day versus night) to longer term (spawning periods) was detected for all but one of the variables examined. The clearest patterns were observed for diurnal effects, where generally abundance was greater at night than during the day. There were also strong lunar effects, although there were no consistent patterns between full moon and new moon periods. Significant differences among months within spawning periods were more common than differences between the actual spawning periods. The results clearly indicate that utilisation of sandy, unvegetated estuarine habitats is very dynamic and highly variable in space and time. (c) 2006 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.