Analysis of Melanoma Onset: Assessing Familial Aggregation by Using Estimating Equations and Fitting Variance Components via Bayesian Random Effects Models

We investigate whether relative contributions of genetic and shared environmental factors are associated with an increased risk in melanoma. Data from the Queensland Familial Melanoma Project comprising 15,907 subjects arising from 1912 families were analyzed to estimate the additive genetic, common and unique environmental contributions to variation in the age at onset of melanoma. Two complementary approaches for analyzing correlated time-to-onset family data were considered: the generalized estimating equations (GEE) method in which one can estimate relationship-specific dependence simultaneously with regression coefficients that describe the average population response to changing covariates; and a subject-specific Bayesian mixed model in which heterogeneity in regression parameters is explicitly modeled and the different components of variation may be estimated directly. The proportional hazards and Weibull models were utilized, as both produce natural frameworks for estimating relative risks while adjusting for simultaneous effects of other covariates. A simple Markov Chain Monte Carlo method for covariate imputation of missing data was used and the actual implementation of the Bayesian model was based on Gibbs sampling using the free ware package BUGS. In addition, we also used a Bayesian model to investigate the relative contribution of genetic and environmental effects on the expression of naevi and freckles, which are known risk factors for melanoma.

Modelling the Distribution of Ischaemic Stroke-Specific Survival Time Using an EM-based Mixture Approach with Random Effects Adjustment

A two-component survival mixture model is proposed to analyse a set of ischaemic stroke-specific mortality data. The survival experience of stroke patients after index stroke may be described by a subpopulation of patients in the acute condition and another subpopulation of patients in the chronic phase. To adjust for the inherent correlation of observations due to random hospital effects, a mixture model of two survival functions with random effects is formulated. Assuming a Weibull hazard in both components, an EM algorithm is developed for the estimation of fixed effect parameters and variance components. A simulation study is conducted to assess the performance of the two-component survival mixture model estimators. Simulation results confirm the applicability of the proposed model in a small sample setting. Copyright (C) 2004 John Wiley Sons, Ltd.

Long-term survivor mixture model with random effects: application to a multi-centre clinical trial of carcinoma

A mixture model incorporating long-term survivors has been adopted in the field of biostatistics where some individuals may never experience the failure event under study. The surviving fractions may be considered as cured. In most applications, the survival times are assumed to be independent. However, when the survival data are obtained from a multi-centre clinical trial, it is conceived that the environ mental conditions and facilities shared within clinic affects the proportion cured as well as the failure risk for the uncured individuals. It necessitates a long-term survivor mixture model with random effects. In this paper, the long-term survivor mixture model is extended for the analysis of multivariate failure time data using the generalized linear mixed model (GLMM) approach. The proposed model is applied to analyse a numerical data set from a multi-centre clinical trial of carcinoma as an illustration. Some simulation experiments are performed to assess the applicability of the model based on the average biases of the estimates formed. Copyright (C) 2001 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Finite mixture regression model with random effects: application to neonatal hospital length of stay

A two-component mixture regression model that allows simultaneously for heterogeneity and dependency among observations is proposed. By specifying random effects explicitly in the linear predictor of the mixture probability and the mixture components, parameter estimation is achieved by maximising the corresponding best linear unbiased prediction type log-likelihood. Approximate residual maximum likelihood estimates are obtained via an EM algorithm in the manner of generalised linear mixed model (GLMM). The method can be extended to a g-component mixture regression model with the component density from the exponential family, leading to the development of the class of finite mixture GLMM. For illustration, the method is applied to analyse neonatal length of stay (LOS). It is shown that identification of pertinent factors that influence hospital LOS can provide important information for health care planning and resource allocation. (C) 2002 Elsevier Science B.V. All rights reserved.

A Mixture model with random-effects components for clustering correlated gene-expression profiles

Motivation: The clustering of gene profiles across some experimental conditions of interest contributes significantly to the elucidation of unknown gene function, the validation of gene discoveries and the interpretation of biological processes. However, this clustering problem is not straightforward as the profiles of the genes are not all independently distributed and the expression levels may have been obtained from an experimental design involving replicated arrays. Ignoring the dependence between the gene profiles and the structure of the replicated data can result in important sources of variability in the experiments being overlooked in the analysis, with the consequent possibility of misleading inferences being made. We propose a random-effects model that provides a unified approach to the clustering of genes with correlated expression levels measured in a wide variety of experimental situations. Our model is an extension of the normal mixture model to account for the correlations between the gene profiles and to enable covariate information to be incorporated into the clustering process. Hence the model is applicable to longitudinal studies with or without replication, for example, time-course experiments by using time as a covariate, and to cross-sectional experiments by using categorical covariates to represent the different experimental classes. Results: We show that our random-effects model can be fitted by maximum likelihood via the EM algorithm for which the E(expectation) and M(maximization) steps can be implemented in closed form. Hence our model can be fitted deterministically without the need for time-consuming Monte Carlo approximations. The effectiveness of our model-based procedure for the clustering of correlated gene profiles is demonstrated on three real datasets, representing typical microarray experimental designs, covering time-course, repeated-measurement and cross-sectional data. In these examples, relevant clusters of the genes are obtained, which are supported by existing gene-function annotation. A synthetic dataset is considered too.

Nutrient deficiencies in greater yam and their effects on leaf nutrient concentrations

This paper describes the first systematic study of nutritional deficiencies of greater yam (Dioscorea alata). Yam plants (cv. 'Mahoa'a') were propagated from tuber discs and grown in nutrient solution, with nutrients supplied following a modified programmed nutrient-addition method. After an establishment period of four weeks, deficiencies of nitrogen (N), phosphorus (P), potassium (K), calcium (Ca), magnesium (Mg), sulfur (S), iron (Fe), boron (B), manganese (Mn), copper (Cu), zinc (Zn), and molybdenum (Mo) were induced by omitting the relevant nutrient from the solution. Foliar symptoms were recorded photographically. Notably, deficiencies of the mobile macronutrients failed to induce senescence of oldest leaves, while vine growth and younger leaves were affected. Leaf blades of the main stem were sampled in sequence and analyzed chemically, providing the distribution of each nutrient from youngest to oldest leaves in both adequately supplied and deficient plants. The nutrient-concentration profiles, together with the visible symptoms, indicated that little remobilization of mobile macronutrients had occurred. For both macro- and micronutrients, young leaves gave the best separation of nutrient concentrations between well-nourished and deficient plants.

When "where'' is more important than "when": Birthplace and birthdate effects on the achievement of sporting expertise

In this study, we assessed whether contextual factors related to where or when an athlete is born influence their likelihood of playing professional sport. The birthplace and birth month of all American players in the National Hockey League, National Basketball Association, Major League Baseball, and Professional Golfer's Association, and all Canadian players in the National Hockey League were collected from official websites. Monte Carlo simulations were used to verify if the birthplace of these professional athletes deviated in any systematic way from the official census population distribution, and chi-square analyses were conducted to determine whether the players' birth months were evenly distributed throughout the year. Results showed a birthplace bias towards smaller cities, with professional athletes being over-represented in cities of less than 500,000 and under-represented in cities of 500,000 and over. A birth month/relative age effect (in the form of a distinct bias towards elite athletes being relatively older than their peers) was found for hockey and baseball but not for basketball and golf. Comparative analyses suggested that contextual factors associated with place of birth contribute more influentially to the achievement of an elite level of sport performance than does relative age and that these factors are essentially independent in their influences on expertise development.

Morphosyntactic and syntactic priming: an investigation of underlying processing mechanisms and the effects of Parkinson’s disease

There is now considerable evidence to suggest that non-demented people with Parkinson's disease (PD) experience difficulties using the morphosyntactic aspects of language. It remains unclear, however, at precisely which point in the processing of morphosyntax, these difficulties emerge. The major objective of the present study was to examine the impact of PD on the processes involved in accessing morphosyntactic information in the lexicon. Nineteen people with PD and 19 matched control subjects participated in the study which employed on-line word recognition tasks to examine morphosyntactic priming for local grammatical dependencies that occur both within (e.g. is going) and across (e.g. she gives) phrasal boundaries (Experiments 1 and 2, respectively). The control group evidenced robust morphosyntactic priming effects that were consistent with the involvement of both pre- (Experiment 1) and post-lexical (Experiment 2) processing routines. Whilst the participants with PD also recorded priming for dependencies within phrasal boundaries (Experiment 1), priming effects were observed over an abnormally brief time course. Further, in contrast to the controls, the PD group failed to record morphosyntactic priming for constructions that crossed phrasal boundaries (Experiment 2). The results demonstrate that attentionally mediated mechanisms operating at both the pre- and post-lexical stages of processing are able to contribute to morphosyntactic priming effects. In addition, the findings support the notion that, whilst people with PD are able to access morphosyntactic information in a normal manner, the time frame in which this information remains available for processing is altered. Deficits may also be experienced at the post-lexical integrational stage of processing.

Air Bubble Entrainment in Hydraulic Jumps: Physical Modelling and Scale Effects

A hydraulic jump is characterised by strong energy dissipation and air entrainment. In the present study, new air-water flow measurements were performed in hydraulic jumps with partially-developed flow conditions in relatively large-size facilities with phase-detection probes. The experiments were conducted with identical Froude numbers, but a range of Reynolds numbers and relative channel widths. The results showed drastic scale effects at small Reynolds numbers in terms of void fraction and bubble count rate distributions. The void fraction distributions implied comparatively greater detrainment at low Reynolds numbers leading to a lesser overall aeration of the jump roller, while dimensionless bubble count rates were drastically lower especially in the mixing layer. The experimental results suggested also that the relative channel width had little effect on the air-water flow properties for identical inflow Froude and Reynolds numbers.

Dynamic Similarity and Scale Effects Affecting Air Bubble Entrainment in Hydraulic Jumps

In an open channel, the transition from super- to sub-critical flow is a flow singularity (the hydraulic jump) characterised by a sharp rise in free-surface elevation, strong turbulence and air entrainment in the roller. A key feature of the hydraulic jump flow is the strong free-surface aeration and air-water flow turbulence. In the present study, similar experiments were conducted with identical inflow Froude numbers Fr1 using a geometric scaling ratio of 2:1. The results of the Froude-similar experiments showed some drastic scale effects in the smaller hydraulic jumps in terms of void fraction, bubble count rate and bubble chord time distributions. Void fraction distributions implied comparatively greater detrainment at low Reynolds numbers yielding some lesser aeration of the jump roller. The dimensionless bubble count rates were significantly lower in the smaller channel, especially in the mixing layer. The bubble chord time distributions were quantitatively close in both channels, and they were not scaled according to a Froude similitude. Simply the hydraulic jump remains a fascinating two-phase flow motion that is still poorly understood.

Race and sex effects on the association between muscle strength, soft tissue, and bone mineral density in healthy elders: The Health, Aging, and Body Composition Study

Two factors generally reported to influence bone density are body composition and muscle strength. However, it is unclear if these relationships are consistent across race and sex, especially in older persons. If differences do exist by race and/or sex, then strategies to maintain bone mass or minimize bone loss in older adults may need to be modified accordingly. Therefore, we examined the independent effects of bone mineral-free lean mass (LM), fat mass (FM), and muscle strength on regional and whole body bone mineral density (BMD) in a cohort of 2619 well-functioning older adults participating in the Health, Aging, and Body Composition (Health ABC) Study with complete measures. Participants included 738 white women, 599 black women, 827 white men, and 455 black men aged 70-79 years. BMD (g/cm(2)) of the femoral neck, whole body, upper and lower limb, and whole body and upper limb bone mineral-free LM and FM was assessed by dual-energy X-ray absorptiometry (DXA). Handgrip strength and knee extensor torque were determined by dynamometry. In analyses stratified by race and sex and adjusted for a number of confounders, LM was a significant (p < 0.001) determinant of BMD, except in white women for the lower limb and whole body. In women, FM also was an independent contributor to BMD at the femoral neck, and both PM and muscle strength contributed to limb BMD. The following were the respective Beta-weights (regression coefficients for standardized data, Std beta) and percent difference in BMD per unit (7.5 kg) LM: femoral neck, 0.202-0.386 and 4.7-6.9 %; lower limb,.0.209-0.357 and 2.9-3.5%; whole body, 0.239-0.484 and 3.0-4.7 %; and upper limb (unit = 0.5 kg), 0.231-0.407 and 3.1-3.4%. Adjusting for bone size (bone mineral apparent density [BMAD]) or body size BMD/height) diminished the importance of LM, and the contributory effect of FM became more pronounced. These results indicate that LM and FM were associated with bone mineral depending on the bone site and bone index used. Where differences did occur, they were primarily by sex not race. To preserve BMD, maintaining or increasing LM in the elderly would appear to be an appropriate strategy, regardless of race or sex.