Global and regional burden of disease and risk factors, 2001: systematic analysis of population health data

Background Our aim was to calculate the global burden of disease and risk factors for 2001, to examine regional trends from 1990 to 2001, and to provide a starting point for the analysis of the Disease Control Priorities Project (DCPP). Methods We calculated mortality, incidence, prevalence, and disability adjusted life years (DALYs) for 136 diseases and injuries, for seven income/geographic country groups. To assess trends, we re-estimated all-cause mortality for 1990 with the same methods as for 2001. We estimated mortality and disease burden attributable to 19 risk factors. Findings About 56 million people died in 2001. Of these, 10.6 million were children, 99% of whom lived in low-and-middle-income countries. More than half of child deaths in 2001 were attributable to acute respiratory infections, measles, diarrhoea, malaria, and HIV/AIDS. The ten leading diseases for global disease burden were perinatal conditions, lower respiratory infections, ischaemic heart disease, cerebrovascular disease, HIV/AIDS, diarrhoeal diseases, unipolar major depression, malaria, chronic obstructive pulmonary disease, and tuberculosis. There was a 20% reduction in global disease burden per head due to communicable, maternal, perinatal, and nutritional conditions between 1990 and 2001. Almost half the disease burden in low-and-middle-income countries is now from non-communicable diseases (disease burden per head in Sub-Saharan Africa and the low-and-middle-income countries of Europe and Central Asia increased between 1990 and 2001). Undernutrition remains the leading risk factor for health loss. An estimated 45% of global mortality and 36% of global disease burden are attributable to the joint hazardous effects of the 19 risk factors studied. Uncertainty in all-cause mortality estimates ranged from around 1% in high-income countries to 15-20% in Sub-Saharan Africa. Uncertainty was larger for mortality from specific diseases, and for incidence and prevalence of non-fatal outcomes. Interpretation Despite uncertainties about mortality and burden of disease estimates, our findings suggest that substantial gains in health have been achieved in most populations, countered by the HIV/AIDS epidemic in Sub-Saharan Africa and setbacks in adult mortality in countries of the former Soviet Union. our results on major disease, injury, and risk factor causes of loss of health, together with information on the cost-effectiveness of interventions, can assist in accelerating progress towards better health and reducing the persistent differentials in health between poor and rich countries.

A decade of downsizing: Understanding the contours of change in Australia, 1990-99

his paper seeks to map a decade of organizational downsizing in Australia utilizing a comprehensive longitudinal data set of 4153 firms. Aggregate downsizing measures conceal extensive change within organizations. We seek to assess these processes by comparing a conventional downsizing measure with more specific occupational downsizing measures. The results show the contours of change in Australia over the 1990s; indicate that there are distinctive and contrasting trends; and raise significant issues for future theoretical and empirical research.

Fluorescence in situ hybridization analysis of nitrifiers in piggery wastewater treatment reactors

Fluorescence in situ hybridization (FISH) was performed to analyze the nitrifying microbial communities in an activated sludge reactor (ASR) and a fixed biofilm reactor (FBR) for piggery wastewater treatment. Heterotrophic oxidation and nitrification were occurring simultaneously in the ASR and the COD and nitrification efficiencies depend on the loads. In the FBR nitrification efficiency also depends on ammonium load to the reactor and nitrite was accumulated when free ammonia concentration was higher than 0.2 mg NH3-N/L. FISH analysis showed that ammonia-oxidizing bacteria (NSO1225) and denitrifying bacteria (RRP1088) were less abundant than other bacteria (EUB338) in ASR. Further analysis on nitrifying bacteria in the FBR showed that Nitrosomonas species (NSM156) and Nitrospira species (NSR1156) were the dominant ammonia-oxidizing and nitrite-oxidizing bacteria, respectively, in the piggery wastewater nitrification system.

Water quality monitoring: A combined approach to investigate gradients of change in the Great Barrier Reef, Australia

For the managers of a region as large as the Great Barrier Reef, it is a challenge to develop a cost effective monitoring program, with appropriate temporal and spatial resolution to detect changes in water quality. The current study compares water quality data (phytoplankton abundance and water clarity) from remote sensing with field sampling (continuous underway profiles of water quality and fixed site sampling) at different spatial scales in the Great Barrier Reef north of Mackay (20 degrees S). Five transects (20-30 km long) were conducted from clean oceanic water to the turbid waters adjacent to the mainland. The different data sources demonstrated high correlations when compared on a similar spatial scale (18 fixed sites). However, each data source also contributed unique information that could not be obtained by the other techniques. A combination of remote sensing, underway sampling and fixed stations will deliver the best spatial and temporal monitoring of water quality in the Great Barrier Reef. (c) 2004 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

A cost-effectiveness analysis of fluvastatin in patients with diabetes after successful percutaneous coronary intervention

Background: The Lescol Intervention Prevention Study (LIPS) was a multinational randomized controlled trial that showed a 47% reduction in the relative risk of cardiac death and a 22% reduction in major adverse cardiac events (MACEs) from the routine use of fluvastatin, compared with controls, in patients undergoing percutaneous coronary intervention (PCI, defined as angioplasty with or without stents). In this study, MACEs included cardiac death, nonfatal myocardial infarction, and subsequent PCI and coronary artery bypass graft. Diabetes was the greatest risk factor for MACEs. Objective: This study estimated the cost-effectiveness of fluvastatin when used for secondary prevention of MACEs after PCI in people with diabetes. Methods: A post hoc subgroup analysis of patients with diabetes from the LIPS was used to estimate the effectiveness of fluvastatin in reducing myocardial infarction, revascularization, and cardiac death. A probabilistic Markov model was developed using United Kingdom resource and cost data to estimate the additional costs and quality-adjusted life-years (QALYs) gained over 10 years from the perspective of the British National Health Service. The model contained 6 health states, and the transition probabilities were derived from the LIPS data. Crossover from fluvastatin to other lipid-lowering drugs, withdrawal from fluvastatin, and the use of lipid-lowering drugs in the control group were included. Results: In the subgroup of 202 patients with diabetes in the LIPS trial, 18 (15.0%) of 120 fluvastatin patients and 21 (25.6%) of 82 control participants were insulin dependent (P = NS). Compared with the control group, patients treated with fluvastatin can expect to gain an additional mean (SD) of 0.196 (0.139) QALY per patient over 10 years (P < 0.001) and will cost the health service an additional mean (SD) of 10 (E448) (P = NS) (mean [SD] US $16 [$689]). The additional cost per QALY gained was;(51 (US $78). The key determinants of cost-effectiveness included the probabilities of repeat interventions, cardiac death, the cost of fluvastatin, and the time horizon used for the evaluation. Conclusion: Fluvastatin was an economically efficient treatment to prevent MACEs in these patients with diabetes undergoing PCI.

Change in lean body mass Is a major determinant of change in areal bone mineral density of the proximal femur: A 12-year observational study

Our objective was to assess the contribution of lean body mass (LBM) and fat body mass (FBM) to areal bone mineral density (aBMD) in women during the years surrounding menopause. We used a 12-year observational design. Participants included 75 Caucasian women who were premenopausal, 53 of whom were available for follow-up. There were two measurement periods: baseline and 12-year follow-up. At both measurement periods, bone mineral content and aBMD of the proximal femur, posterior-anterior lumbar spine, and total body was assessed using dual-energy X-ray absorptiometry (DXA). LBM and FBM were derived from the total-body scans. General health, including current menopausal status, hormone replace therapy use, medication use, and physical activity, was assessed by questionnaires. At the end of the study, 44% of the women were postmenopausal. After controlling for baseline aBMD, current menopausal status, and current hormone replacement therapy, we found that change in LBM was independently associated with change in aBMD of the proximal femur (P = 0.001). The cross-sectional analyses also indicated that LBM was a significant determinant of aBMD of all three DXA-scanned sites at both baseline and follow-up. These novel longitudinal data highlight the important contribution of LBM to the maintenance of proximal femur bone mass at a key time in women's life span, the years surrounding menopause.