Analysis of Melanoma Onset: Assessing Familial Aggregation by Using Estimating Equations and Fitting Variance Components via Bayesian Random Effects Models

We investigate whether relative contributions of genetic and shared environmental factors are associated with an increased risk in melanoma. Data from the Queensland Familial Melanoma Project comprising 15,907 subjects arising from 1912 families were analyzed to estimate the additive genetic, common and unique environmental contributions to variation in the age at onset of melanoma. Two complementary approaches for analyzing correlated time-to-onset family data were considered: the generalized estimating equations (GEE) method in which one can estimate relationship-specific dependence simultaneously with regression coefficients that describe the average population response to changing covariates; and a subject-specific Bayesian mixed model in which heterogeneity in regression parameters is explicitly modeled and the different components of variation may be estimated directly. The proportional hazards and Weibull models were utilized, as both produce natural frameworks for estimating relative risks while adjusting for simultaneous effects of other covariates. A simple Markov Chain Monte Carlo method for covariate imputation of missing data was used and the actual implementation of the Bayesian model was based on Gibbs sampling using the free ware package BUGS. In addition, we also used a Bayesian model to investigate the relative contribution of genetic and environmental effects on the expression of naevi and freckles, which are known risk factors for melanoma.

The prognostic value of a nomogram for exercise capacity in women

BACKGROUND: Recent studies have demonstrated that exercise capacity is an independent predictor of mortality in women. Normative values of exercise capacity for age in women have not been well established. Our objectives were to construct a nomogram to permit determination of predicted exercise capacity for age in women and to assess the predictive value of the nomogram with respect to survival. METHODS: A total of 5721 asymptomatic women underwent a symptom-limited, maximal stress test. Exercise capacity was measured in metabolic equivalents (MET). Linear regression was used to estimate the mean MET achieved for age. A nomogram was established to allow the percentage of predicted exercise capacity to be estimated on the basis of age and the exercise capacity achieved. The nomogram was then used to determine the percentage of predicted exercise capacity for both the original cohort and a referral population of 4471 women with cardiovascular symptoms who underwent a symptom-limited stress test. Survival data were obtained for both cohorts, and Cox survival analysis was used to estimate the rates of death from any cause and from cardiac causes in each group. RESULTS: The linear regression equation for predicted exercise capacity (in MET) on the basis of age in the cohort of asymptomatic women was as follows: predicted MET = 14.7 - (0.13 x age). The risk of death among asymptomatic women whose exercise capacity was less than 85 percent of the predicted value for age was twice that among women whose exercise capacity was at least 85 percent of the age-predicted value (P<0.001). Results were similar in the cohort of symptomatic women. CONCLUSIONS: We have established a nomogram for predicted exercise capacity on the basis of age that is predictive of survival among both asymptomatic and symptomatic women. These findings could be incorporated into the interpretation of exercise stress tests, providing additional prognostic information for risk stratification.

Energy and calcium stores are preserved in girls and young women with CF, independent of disease severity: An explanation for the 'gender gap'?

Bioenergetics differ between males and females of many species. Human females apportion a substantial proportion of energy resources towards gynoid fat storage, to support the energetic burden of reproduction. Similarly, axial calcium accrual is favoured in females compared with males. Nutritional status is a prognostic indicator in cystic fibrosis (CF), but girls and young women are at greater risk of death despite equivalent nutritional status to males. The aim of this study was to compare fat (energy) and calcium stores (bone density) in males and females with CF over a spectrum of disease severity. Methods: Fat as % body weight (fat%) and lumbar spine (LS) and total body (TB) bone mineral density (BMD) were measured using dual absorption X-ray photometry in 127(59M) control and 101(54M) CF subjects, aged 9–25 years. An equation for predicted age at death had been determined using survival data and history of pulmonary function for the whole clinic, based on a trivariate normal model using maximum likelihood methods (1). For the CF group, a disease severity index (predicted age at death) was calculated from the derived equations according to each subjects history of pulmonary function, current age, and gender. Disease severity was classified according to percentile of predicted age at death (‘mild’ ≥75th, ‘moderate’ 25th–75th, ‘severe’ ≤25th percentile). Wt for age z-score was calculated. Serum testosterone and oestrogen were measured in males and females respectively. Fat% and LSBMD were compared between the groups using ANOVA. Results: There was an interaction between disease severity and gender: increasing disease severity was associated with greater deficits in TB (p=0.01), LSBMD (p

Repeated occurrence of basal cell carcinoma of the skin and multifailure survival analysis: Follow-up data from the nambour skin cancer prevention trial

The aim of this study was to apply multifailure survival methods to analyze time to multiple occurrences of basal cell carcinoma (BCC). Data from 4.5 years of follow-up in a randomized controlled trial, the Nambour Skin Cancer Prevention Trial (1992-1996), to evaluate skin cancer prevention were used to assess the influence of sunscreen application on the time to first BCC and the time to subsequent BCCs. Three different approaches of time to ordered multiple events were applied and compared: the Andersen-Gill, Wei-Lin-Weissfeld, and Prentice-Williams-Peterson models. Robust variance estimation approaches were used for all multifailure survival models. Sunscreen treatment was not associated with time to first occurrence of a BCC (hazard ratio = 1.04, 95% confidence interval: 0.79, 1.45). Time to subsequent BCC tumors using the Andersen-Gill model resulted in a lower estimated hazard among the daily sunscreen application group, although statistical significance was not reached (hazard ratio = 0.82, 95% confidence interval: 0.59, 1.15). Similarly, both the Wei-Lin-Weissfeld marginal-hazards and the Prentice-Williams-Peterson gap-time models revealed trends toward a lower risk of subsequent BCC tumors among the sunscreen intervention group. These results demonstrate the importance of conducting multiple-event analysis for recurring events, as risk factors for a single event may differ from those where repeated events are considered.

Validation and refinement of survival models for liver retransplantation

Orthotopic liver retransplantation (re-OLT) is highly controversial. The objectives of this study were to determine the validity of a recently developed United Network for Organ Sharing (UNOS) multivariate model using an independent cohort of patients undergoing re-OLT outside the United States, to determine whether incorporation of other variables that were incomplete in the UNOS registry would provide additional prognostic information, to develop new models combining data sets from both cohorts, and to evaluate the validity of the model for end-stage liver disease (MELD) in patients undergoing re-OLT. Two hundred eighty-one adult patients undergoing re-OLT (between 1986 and 1999) at 6 foreign transplant centers comprised the validation cohort. We found good agreement between actual survival and predicted survival in the validation cohort; 1-year patient survival rates in the low-, intermediate-, and high-risk groups (as assigned by the original UNOS model) were 72%, 68%, and 36%, respectively (P < .0001). In the patients for whom the international normalized ratio (INR) of prothrombin time was available, MELD correlated with outcome following re-OLT; the median MELD scores for patients surviving at least 90 days compared with those dying within 90 days were 20.75 versus 25.9, respectively (P = .004). Utilizing both patient cohorts (n = 979), a new model, based on recipient age, total serum bilirubin, creatinine, and interval to re-OLT, was constructed (whole model χ(2) = 105, P < .0001). Using the c-statistic with 30-day, 90-day, 1-year, and 3-year mortality as the end points, the area under the receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curves for 4 different models were compared. In conclusion, prospective validation and use of these models as adjuncts to clinical decision making in the management of patients being considered for re-OLT are warranted.

Patient and graft survival after liver transplantation for hereditary hemochromatosis: Implications for pathogenesis

The clinical outcome of patients who have undergone liver transplantation for hereditary hemochromatosis (HH) or who have received iron-loaded donor grafts is unclear. We reviewed 3,600 adult primary orthotopic liver transplants and assessed the outcomes in 22 patients with HH. We also evaluated graft function and iron mobilization in 12 recipients of iron-loaded donor grafts. All 22 subjects who received liver transplants for HH were male; 13 had other risk factors for liver disease. HH patients had comparatively poor outcomes following transplantation: survival at 1, 3, and 5 years posttransplantation were 72%, 62%, and 55%, respectively. Recurrent hepatocellular cancer was the most common cause of death. There was no convincing evidence of reaccumulation of iron in the grafted liver in HH; however, 1 subject demonstrated increased serum ferritin concentration and grade 2 hepatic siderosis. Liver iron stores were slow to mobilize in 7 of the 12 recipients of iron-loaded grafts. These recipients had appropriate early graft function, but 2 patients with heavy iron loading and increased hepatic iron developed hepatic fibrosis. In conclusion. (1) HH is an uncommon indication for liver transplantation, and the majority of patients requiring transplantation had other risk factors for chronic liver disease; (2) reaccumulation of liver iron in HH patients is very unusual, but increased iron stores may be slow to mobilize in normal recipients of iron-loaded grafts, potentially compromising late graft function; (3) post-liver transplant survival is reduced in HH, and affected patients require careful clinical evaluation of perioperative and postoperative risk factors. Our data suggest that iron excess in HH does not wholly depend on intestinal iron absorption but is also influenced by liver factors that moderate iron metabolism.

Estimates of sex- and age-class-specific survival probabilities for a southern Great Barrier Reef green sea turtle population

Sex- and age-class-specific survival probabilities of a southern Great Barrier Reef green sea turtle population were estimated using a capture - mark - recapture (CMR) study and a Cormack - Jolly - Seber (CJS) modelling approach. The CMR history profiles for 954 individual turtles tagged over a 9-year period ( 1984 - 1992) were classified into three age classes ( adult, subadult, juvenile) based on somatic growth and reproductive traits. Reduced-parameter CJS models, accounting for constant survival and time-specific recapture, fitted best for all age classes. There were no significant sex-specific differences in either survival or recapture probabilities for any age class. Mean annual adult survival was estimated at 0.9482 (95% CI: 0.92 - 0.98) and was significantly higher than survival for either subadults or juveniles. Mean annual subadult survival was 0.8474 ( 95% CI: 0.79 - 0.91), which was not significantly different from mean annual juvenile survival estimated at 0.8804 ( 95% CI: 0.84 - 0.93). The time-specific adult recapture probabilities were a function of sampling effort but this was not the case for either juveniles or subadults. The sampling effort effect was accounted for explicitly in the estimation of adult survival and recapture probabilities. These are the first comprehensive sex- and age-class-specific survival and recapture probability estimates for a green sea turtle population derived from a long-term CMR program.

Over-expression of Eph and ephrin genes in advanced ovarian cancer: ephrin gene expression correlates with shortened survival

Background: Increased expression of Eph receptor tyrosine kinases and their ephrin ligands has been implicated in tumor progression in a number of malignancies. This report describes aberrant expression of these genes in ovarian cancer, the commonest cause of death amongst gynaecological malignancies. Methods: Eph and ephrin expression was determined using quantitative real time RT-PCR. Correlation of gene expression was measured using Spearman's rho statistic. Survival was analysed using log-rank analysis and ( was visualised by) Kaplan-Meier survival curves. Results: Greater than 10 fold over-expression of EphA1 and a more modest over-expression of EphA2 were observed in partially overlapping subsets of tumors. Over-expression of EphA1 strongly correlated ( r = 0.801; p < 0.01) with the high affinity ligand ephrin A1. A similar trend was observed between EphA2 and ephrin A1 ( r = 0.387; p = 0.06). A striking correlation of both ephrin A1 and ephrin A5 expression with poor survival ( r = - 0.470; p = 0.02 and r = - 0.562; p < 0.01) was observed. Intriguingly, there was no correlation between survival and other clinical parameters or Eph expression. Conclusion: These data imply that increased levels of ephrins A1 and A5 in the presence of high expression of Ephs A1 and A2 lead to a more aggressive tumor phenotype. The known functions of Eph/ephrin signalling in cell de-adhesion and movement may explain the observed correlation of ephrin expression with poor prognosis.

Is mortality from heart failure increasing in Australia? An analysis of official data on mortality for 1997-2003

Objective To assess whether trends in mortality from heart failure(HF) in Australia are due to a change in awareness of the condition or real changes in its epidemiology. Methods We carried out a retrospective analysis of official data on national mortality data between 1997 and 2003. A death was attributed to HF if the death certificate mentioned HF as either the underlying cause of death (UCD) or among the contributory factors. Findings From a total of 907 242 deaths, heart failure was coded as the UCD for 29 341 (3.2%) and was mentioned anywhere on the death certificate in 135 268 (14.9%). Between 1997 and 2003, there were decreases in the absolute numbers of deaths and in the age-specific and age-standardized mortality rates for HF either as UCD or mentioned anywhere for both sexes. HF was mentioned for 24.6% and 17.8% of deaths attributed to ischaemic heart disease and circulatory disease, respectively, and these proportions remained unchanged over the period of study. In addition, HF as UCD accounted for 8.3% of deaths attributed to circulatory disease and this did not change materially from 1997 to 2003. Conclusion The decline in mortality from HF measured as either number of deaths or rate probably reflects a real change in the epidemiology of HF. Population-based studies are required to determine accurately the contributions of changes in incidence, survival and demographic factors to the evolving epidemiology of HF.

Laboratory-based simulation of freezing profiles of beef trim for Escherichia coli O157 survival determinations

This study was undertaken to develop a simple laboratory-based method for simulating the freezing profiles of beef trim so that their effect on E. coli 0157 survival could be better assessed. A commercially available apparatus of the type used for freezing embryos, together with an associated temperature logger and software, was used for this purpose with a -80 degrees C freezer as a heat sink. Four typical beef trim freezing profiles, of different starting temperatures or lengths, were selected and modelled as straight lines for ease of manipulation. A further theoretical profile with an extended freezing plateau was also developed. The laboratory-based setup worked well and the modelled freezing profiles fitted closely to the original data. No change in numbers of any of the strains was apparent for the three simulated profiles of different lengths starting at 25 degrees C. Slight but significant (P < 0.05) decreases in numbers (similar to 0.2 log cfu g(-1)) of all strains were apparent for a profile starting at 12 degrees C. A theoretical version of this profile with a freezing plateau phase extended from 11 h to 17 h resulted in significant (P < 0.05) decreases in numbers (similar to 1.2 log cfu g(-1)) of all strains. Results indicated possible avenues for future research in controlling this pathogen. The method developed in this study proved a useful and cost-effective way for simulating freezing profiles of beef trim. (c) 2005 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.