Predicting population dynamics of weed biological control agents: science or gazing into crystal balls?

Various factors can influence the population dynamics of phytophages post introduction, of which climate is fundamental. Here we present an approach, using a mechanistic modelling package (CLIMEX), that at least enables one to make predictions of likely dynamics based on climate alone. As biological control programs will have minimal funding for basic work (particularly on population dynamics), we show how predictions can be made using a species geographical distribution, relative abundance across its range, seasonal phenology and laboratory rearing data. Many of these data sets are more likely to be available than long-term population data, and some can be incorporated into the exploratory phase of a biocontrol program. Although models are likely to be more robust the more information is available, useful models can be developed using information on species distribution alone. The fitted model estimates a species average response to climate, and can be used to predict likely geographical distribution if introduced, where the agent is likely to be more abundant (i.e. good locations) and more importantly for interpretation of release success, the likely variation in abundance over time due to intra- and inter-year climate variability. The latter will be useful in predicting both the seasonal and long-term impacts of the potential biocontrol agent on the target weed. We believe this tool may not only aid in the agent selection process, but also in the design of release strategies, and for interpretation of post-introduction dynamics and impacts. More importantly we are making testable predictions. If biological control is to become more of a science making and testing such hypothesis will be a key component.

The sugar cane biofactory - building blocks for the future

The sugarcane plant, with its enormous genetic capacity to accumulate carbon and manufacture and store sucrose, also has the potential to accumulate carbon and metabolically create a wide range of new molecules for industrial and other commercial uses. The extent to which this change can be developed and realised commercially is a function of the technical competence of the industry's R&D capacity, the reality of the commercial drivers which support this global agenda, and the determination of the industry to achieve such goals. The outcomes of existing R&D work already strongly support the technical challenges of this opportunity in sugarcane. The current challenge remains the commercialisation of the technology in a global market in which the current business structures and systems for the manufacture and distribution of existing (competitive) products makes the development of new product lines a higher risk than might otherwise be the case. This is despite all the claims that global markets are expecting and (in some cases) legislating the creation of more sustainable production systems. The options and issues for the development of a sugarcane biofactory system are discussed.

Use of CLIMEX modelling to identify prospective areas for exploration to find new biological control agents for prickly acacia

Selection of biocontrol agents that are adapted to the climates in areas of intended release demands a thorough analysis of the climates of the source and release sites. We present a case study that demonstrates how use of the CLIMEX software can improve decision making in relation to the identification of prospective areas for exploration for agents to control the woody weed, prickly acacia Acacia nilotica ssp. indica in the arid areas of north Queensland.

Characterization of sugar cane waste biomass derived chars from pressurized gasification

There is interest in the use of sugar cane waste biomass for electricity cogeneration, by integrated gasification combined cycle (IGCC) processes. This paper describes one aspect of an overall investigation into the reactivity of cane wastes under pressurized IGGC conditions, for input into process design. There is currently a gap in understanding the morphological transformations experienced by cane waste biomass undergoing conversion to char during pressurized gasification, which is addressed by this work. Char residuals remaining after pressurized pyrolysis and carbon dioxide gasification were analysed by optical microscope, nitrogen (BET) adsorption analysis, SEM/EDS, TEM/EDS and XPS techniques. The amorphous cane plant silica structures were found to remain physically intact during entrained flow gasification, but chemically altered in the presence of other inorganic species. The resulting crystalline silicates were mesoporous (with surface areas of the order of 20 m(2) g(-1)) and contributed to much of the otherwise limited pore volume present in the residual chars. Coke deposition and intimate blending of the carbonaceous and inorganic species was identified. Progressive sintering of the silicates appeared to trap coke deposits in the pore network. As a result ash residuals showed significant organic contents, even after extensive additional oxidation in air. The implications of the findings are that full conversion of cane trash materials under pressurized IGCC conditions may be significantly hampered by the silica structures inherent in these biomass materials and that further research of the contributing phenomena is recommended.