Comparing predictions of extinction risk using models and subjective judgement

Models of population dynamics are commonly used to predict risks in ecology, particularly risks of population decline. There is often considerable uncertainty associated with these predictions. However, alternatives to predictions based on population models have not been assessed. We used simulation models of hypothetical species to generate the kinds of data that might typically be available to ecologists and then invited other researchers to predict risks of population declines using these data. The accuracy of the predictions was assessed by comparison with the forecasts of the original model. The researchers used either population models or subjective judgement to make their predictions. Predictions made using models were only slightly more accurate than subjective judgements of risk. However, predictions using models tended to be unbiased, while subjective judgements were biased towards over-estimation. Psychology literature suggests that the bias of subjective judgements is likely to vary somewhat unpredictably among people, depending on their stake in the outcome. This will make subjective predictions more uncertain and less transparent than those based on models. (C) 2004 Elsevier SAS. All rights reserved.

Capturing expert knowledge for threatened species assessments: a case study using NatureServe conservation status ranks

Assessments for assigning the conservation status of threatened species that are based purely on subjective judgements become problematic because assessments can be influenced by hidden assumptions, personal biases and perceptions of risks, making the assessment process difficult to repeat. This can result in inconsistent assessments and misclassifications, which can lead to a lack of confidence in species assessments. It is almost impossible to Understand an expert's logic or visualise the underlying reasoning behind the many hidden assumptions used throughout the assessment process. In this paper, we formalise the decision making process of experts, by capturing their logical ordering of information, their assumptions and reasoning, and transferring them into a set of decisions rules. We illustrate this through the process used to evaluate the conservation status of species under the NatureServe system (Master, 1991). NatureServe status assessments have been used for over two decades to set conservation priorities for threatened species throughout North America. We develop a conditional point-scoring method, to reflect the current subjective process. In two test comparisons, 77% of species' assessments using the explicit NatureServe method matched the qualitative assessments done subjectively by NatureServe staff. Of those that differed, no rank varied by more than one rank level under the two methods. In general, the explicit NatureServe method tended to be more precautionary than the subjective assessments. The rank differences that emerged from the comparisons may be due, at least in part, to the flexibility of the qualitative system, which allows different factors to be weighted on a species-by-species basis according to expert judgement. The method outlined in this study is the first documented attempt to explicitly define a transparent process for weighting and combining factors under the NatureServe system. The process of eliciting expert knowledge identifies how information is combined and highlights any inconsistent logic that may not be obvious in Subjective decisions. The method provides a repeatable, transparent, and explicit benchmark for feedback, further development, and improvement. (C) 2004 Elsevier SAS. All rights reserved.

Protocols for listing threatened species can forecast extinction

Risk-ranking protocols are used widely to classify the conservation status of the world's species. Here we report on the first empirical assessment of their reliability by using a retrospective study of 18 pairs of bird and mammal species (one species extinct and the other extant) with eight different assessors. The performance of individual assessors varied substantially, but performance was improved by incorporating uncertainty in parameter estimates and consensus among the assessors. When this was done, the ranks from the protocols were consistent with the extinction outcome in 70-80% of pairs and there were mismatches in only 10-20% of cases. This performance was similar to the subjective judgements of the assessors after they had estimated the range and population parameters required by the protocols, and better than any single parameter. When used to inform subjective judgement, the protocols therefore offer a means of reducing unpredictable biases that may be associated with expert input and have the advantage of making the logic behind assessments explicit. We conclude that the protocols are useful for forecasting extinctions, although they are prone to some errors that have implications for conservation. Some level of error is to be expected, however, given the influence of chance on extinction. The performance of risk assessment protocols may be improved by providing training in the application of the protocols, incorporating uncertainty in parameter estimates and using consensus among multiple assessors, including some who are experts in the application of the protocols. Continued testing and refinement of the protocols may help to provide better absolute estimates of risk, particularly by re-evaluating how the protocols accommodate missing data.

The tannin-degrading species Streptococcus gallolyticus and Streptococcus caprinus are subjective synonyms

The tannin-degrading species Streptococcus gallolyticus and Streptococcus caprinus have been shown to be subjective synonyms on the basis of their levels of 16S rRNA sequence similarity (98.3%) and DNA-DNA homology (>70%) and the phenotypes of their type strains. S. gallolyticus has nomenclatural priority according to Rule 24b(2) of the International Code of Nomenclature of Bacteria.

Alcohol dependence: the impact of cognitive behaviour therapy with or without naltrexone on subjective health status

Objectives: To examine the health-related quality of life of alcohol-dependent patients across a 12-week cognitive behaviour treatment (CBT) program and identify whether the patient selection of the anticraving medication naltrexone further enhanced these outcomes. Method: One hundred and thirty-six consecutive alcohol-dependent subjects voluntarily participated and were offered naltrexone, of which 73 (54%) participants declined medication. A matched design was used. Of the 136 subjects, 86 (43 naltrexone and CBT; 43 CBT only) could be individually matched (blind to outcome measures) for gender, age, prior alcohol detoxification and dependence severity. Measures of health status and mental health wellbeing included the Rand Corporation Medical Outcomes Short Form 36 Health Survey (SF-36) and the General Health Questionnaire (GHQ-28). Results: Pre-treatment, all had SF-36 and GHQ-28 scores markedly below national norms. Post-treatment, significant improvement in seven of the eight SF-36 subscales and all of the GHQ-28 subscales occurred, approximating national normative levels. Patients in the CBT + naltrexone group were significantly more likely to have increased days abstinent (p = 0.002) and to complete the program abstinent (p = 0.051). The adjunctive use of naltrexone did not provide additional benefit as reflected in SF-36 and GHQ-28 scores, beyond CBT alone. Conclusions: Patients who completed the CBT-based treatment program reported significant improvements in self-reported health status (SF-36) and wellbeing (GHQ-28). The adjunctive use of naltrexone demonstrated no additional improvement in these measures.