22 resultados para Stock price forecasting -- United States -- Computer simulation
em University of Queensland eSpace - Australia
Resumo:
This paper provides a profit-maximizing model with vessel-level dolphin mortality limits for purse seiners harvesting tunas in the eastern tropical Pacific Ocean. The model analytically derives the shadow price (estimated economic value) for dolphin mortality, the fishing-fleet size, and the annual tuna harvest as functions of a few key fishing parameters. The model also provides a statistical method to determine the accuracy of all needed parameter estimates. The paper then applies the model to the year 1996 and the period from 1985 to 1987. The shadow price measures the economic value to the US tuna fleet of dolphins lost in the harvesting of tuna. This value is essential when attempting to evaluate the economic benefits and costs to society of any action designed to reduce the mortality of dolphins in the harvesting of tuna in the eastern tropical Pacific Ocean.
Resumo:
This paper presents an economic model to explain the behavior of life expectancy of both sexes. It explicitly examines the relationship between the gender gap in life expectancy and the gender gap in pay. It shows that as the latter narrows over the course of economic development, the former may initially expand but will eventually shrink. Simulation results from our model accord with the behavior of life expectancy for both sexes since the 1940s in the United States. (C) 2003 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.
Resumo:
In this paper, we studied vapor-liquid equilibria (VLE) and adsorption of ethylene on graphitized thermal carbon black and in slit pores whose walls are composed of graphene layers. Simple models of a one-center Lennard-Jones (LJ) potential and a two-center united atom (UA)-LJ potential are investigated to study the impact of the choice of potential models in the description of VLE and adsorption behavior. Here, we used a Monte Carlo simulation method with grand canonical Monte Carlo (GCMC) and Gibbs ensemble Monte Carlo ensembles. The one-center potential model cannot describe adequately the VLE over the practical range of temperature from the triple point to the critical point. On the other hand, the two-center potential model (Wick et al. J. Phys. Chem. B 2000, 104, 8008-8016) performs well in the description of VLE (saturated vapor and liquid densities and vapor pressure) over the wide range of temperature. This UA-LJ model is then used in the study of adsorption of ethylene on graphitized thermal carbon black and in slit pores. Agreement between the GCMC simulation results and the experimental data on graphitized thermal carbon black for moderate temperatures is excellent, demonstrating that the potential of the GCMC method and the proper choice of potential model are essential to investigate adsorption. For slit pores of various sizes, we have found that the behavior of ethylene exhibits a number of features that are not manifested in the study of spherical LJ particles. In particular, the singlet density distribution versus distance across the pore and the angle between the molecular axis and the z direction provide rich information about the way molecules arrange themselves when the pore width is varied. Such an arrangement has been found to be very sensitive to the pore width.
Resumo:
In deregulated electricity market, modeling and forecasting the spot price present a number of challenges. By applying wavelet and support vector machine techniques, a new time series model for short term electricity price forecasting has been developed in this paper. The model employs both historical price and other important information, such as load capacity and weather (temperature), to forecast the price of one or more time steps ahead. The developed model has been evaluated with the actual data from Australian National Electricity Market. The simulation results demonstrated that the forecast model is capable of forecasting the electricity price with a reasonable forecasting accuracy.
Resumo:
The XSophe-Sophe-XeprView((R)) computer simulation software suite enables scientists to easily determine spin Hamiltonian parameters from isotropic, randomly oriented and single crystal continuous wave electron paramagnetic resonance (CW EPR) spectra from radicals and isolated paramagnetic metal ion centers or clusters found in metalloproteins, chemical systems and materials science. XSophe provides an X-windows graphical user interface to the Sophe programme and allows: creation of multiple input files, local and remote execution of Sophe, the display of sophelog (output from Sophe) and input parameters/files. Sophe is a sophisticated computer simulation software programme employing a number of innovative technologies including; the Sydney OPera HousE (SOPHE) partition and interpolation schemes, a field segmentation algorithm, the mosaic misorientation linewidth model, parallelization and spectral optimisation. In conjunction with the SOPHE partition scheme and the field segmentation algorithm, the SOPHE interpolation scheme and the mosaic misorientation linewidth model greatly increase the speed of simulations for most spin systems. Employing brute force matrix diagonalization in the simulation of an EPR spectrum from a high spin Cr(III) complex with the spin Hamiltonian parameters g(e) = 2.00, D = 0.10 cm(-1), E/D = 0.25, A(x) = 120.0, A(y) = 120.0, A(z) = 240.0 x 10(-4) cm(-1) requires a SOPHE grid size of N = 400 (to produce a good signal to noise ratio) and takes 229.47 s. In contrast the use of either the SOPHE interpolation scheme or the mosaic misorientation linewidth model requires a SOPHE grid size of only N = 18 and takes 44.08 and 0.79 s, respectively. Results from Sophe are transferred via the Common Object Request Broker Architecture (CORBA) to XSophe and subsequently to XeprView((R)) where the simulated CW EPR spectra (1D and 2D) can be compared to the experimental spectra. Energy level diagrams, transition roadmaps and transition surfaces aid the interpretation of complicated randomly oriented CW EPR spectra and can be viewed with a web browser and an OpenInventor scene graph viewer.
Resumo:
Turtle excluder devices (TEDs) are being trialed on a voluntary basis in many Australian prawn (shrimp) trawl fisheries to reduce sea turtle captures. Analysis of TED introductions into shrimp trawl fisheries of the United States provided major insights into why conflicts occurred between shrimpers, conservationists, and government agencies. A conflict over the introduction and subsequent regulation of TEDs occurred because the problem and the solution were perceived differently by the various stakeholders. Attempts to negotiate and mediate the conflict broke down, resulting in litigation against the U.S. government by conservationists and shrimpers. Litigation was not an efficient resolution to the sea turtle-TED-trawl conflict but it appears that litigation was the only remaining path of resolution once the issue became polarized. We review two major Australian trawl fisheries to identify any significant differences in circumstances that may affect TED acceptance. Australian trawl fisheries are structured differently and good communication occurs between industry and researchers. TEDs are being introduced as mature technology. Furthermore, bycatch issues are of increasing concern to all stakeholders. These factors, combined with insights derived from previous conflicts concerning TEDs in the United Stares, increase the possibilities that TEDs will be introduced to Australian fishers with better acceptance.
Resumo:
RWMODEL II simulates the Rescorla-Wagner model of Pavlovian conditioning. It is written in Delphi and runs under Windows 3.1 and Windows 95. The program was designed for novice and expert users and can be employed in teaching, as well as in research. It is user friendly and requires a minimal level of computer literacy but is sufficiently flexible to permit a wide range of simulations. It allows the display of empirical data, against which predictions from the model can be validated.
Resumo:
The general-care glass ceiling hypothesis states that not only is it more difficult for women than for men to be promoted up levels of authority hierarchies within workplaces but also that the obstacles women face relative to men become greater as they move rtp the hierarchy. Gender-based discrimination in promotions is not simply present across levels of hierarchy but is more intense at higher levels. Empirically, this implies that the relative rates of women being promoted to higher levels compared to men should decline with the level of the hierarchy. This article explores this hypothesis with data from three countries: the United States, Australia, and Sweden. The basic conclusion is that while there is strong evidence for a general gender gap in authority-the odds of women having authority are less than those of men-there is no evidence for systematic glass ceiling effects in the United States and only weak evidence for such effects in the other two countries.