Sensitivity and uncertainty analyses for burden of disease and risk factor estimates

Epidemiological studies report confidence or uncertainty intervals around their estimates. Estimates of the burden of diseases and risk factors are subject to a broader range of uncertainty because of the combination of multiple data sources and value choices. Sensitivity analysis can be used to examine the effects of social values that have been incorporated into the design of the disability–adjusted life year (DALY). Age weight, where a year of healthy life lived at one age is valued differently from at another age, is the most controversial value built into the DALY. The discount rate, which addresses the difference in value of current versus future health benefits, also has been criticized. The distribution of the global disease burden and rankings of various conditions are largely insensitive to alternate assumptions about the discount rate and age weighting. The major effects of discounting and age weighting are to enhance the importance of neuropsychiatric conditions and sexually transmitted infections. The Global Burden of Disease study also has been criticized for estimating mortality and disease burden for regions using incomplete and uncertain data. Including uncertain results, with uncertainty quantified to the extent possible, is preferable, however, to leaving blank cells in tables intended to provide policy makers with an overall assessment of burden of disease. No estimate is generally interpreted as no problem. Greater investment in getting the descriptive epidemiology of diseases and injuries correct in poor countries will do vastly more to reduce uncertainty in disease burden assessments than a philosophical debate about the appropriateness of social value

Parallel implementation of stochastic simulation for large scale cellular processes

Experimental and theoretical studies have shown the importance of stochastic processes in genetic regulatory networks and cellular processes. Cellular networks and genetic circuits often involve small numbers of key proteins such as transcriptional factors and signaling proteins. In recent years stochastic models have been used successfully for studying noise in biological pathways, and stochastic modelling of biological systems has become a very important research field in computational biology. One of the challenge problems in this field is the reduction of the huge computing time in stochastic simulations. Based on the system of the mitogen-activated protein kinase cascade that is activated by epidermal growth factor, this work give a parallel implementation by using OpenMP and parallelism across the simulation. Special attention is paid to the independence of the generated random numbers in parallel computing, that is a key criterion for the success of stochastic simulations. Numerical results indicate that parallel computers can be used as an efficient tool for simulating the dynamics of large-scale genetic regulatory networks and cellular processes

Quantum noise in optical fibers. I. Stochastic equations

We analyze the quantum dynamics of radiation propagating in a single-mode optical fiber with dispersion, nonlinearity, and Raman coupling to thermal phonons. We start from a fundamental Hamiltonian that includes the principal known nonlinear effects and quantum-noise sources, including linear gain and loss. Both Markovian and frequency-dependent, non-Markovian reservoirs are treated. This treatment allows quantum Langevin equations, which have a classical form except for additional quantum-noise terms, to be calculated. In practical calculations, it is more useful to transform to Wigner or 1P quasi-probability operator representations. These transformations result in stochastic equations that can be analyzed by use of perturbation theory or exact numerical techniques. The results have applications to fiber-optics communications, networking, and sensor technology.

Time-reversal test for stochastic quantum dynamics

The calculation of quantum dynamics is currently a central issue in theoretical physics, with diverse applications ranging from ultracold atomic Bose-Einstein condensates to condensed matter, biology, and even astrophysics. Here we demonstrate a conceptually simple method of determining the regime of validity of stochastic simulations of unitary quantum dynamics by employing a time-reversal test. We apply this test to a simulation of the evolution of a quantum anharmonic oscillator with up to 6.022×1023 (Avogadro's number) of particles. This system is realizable as a Bose-Einstein condensate in an optical lattice, for which the time-reversal procedure could be implemented experimentally.

Canonical Bose gas simulations with stochastic gauges

A technique to simulate the grand canonical ensembles of interacting Bose gases is presented. Results are generated for many temperatures by averaging over energy-weighted stochastic paths, each corresponding to a solution of coupled Gross-Pitaevskii equations with phase noise. The stochastic gauge method used relies on an off-diagonal coherent-state expansion, thus taking into account all quantum correlations. As an example, the second-order spatial correlation function and momentum distribution for an interacting 1D Bose gas are calculated.

Modeling ex vivo hematopoiesis using chemical engineering metaphors

Ex vivo hematopoiesis is increasingly used for clinical applications. Models of ex vivo hematopoiesis are required to better understand the complex dynamics and to optimize hematopoietic culture processes. A general mathematical modeling framework is developed which uses traditional chemical engineering metaphors to describe the complex hematopoietic dynamics. Tanks and tubular reactors are used to describe the (pseudo-) stochastic and deterministic elements of hematopoiesis, respectively. Cells at any point in the differentiation process can belong to either an immobilized, inert phase (quiescent cells) or a mobile, active phase (cycling cells). The model describes five processes: (1) flow (differentiation), (2) autocatalytic formation (growth),(3) degradation (death), (4) phase transition from immobilized to mobile phase (quiescent to cycling transition), and (5) phase transition from mobile to immobilized phase (cycling to quiescent transition). The modeling framework is illustrated with an example concerning the effect of TGF-beta 1 on erythropoiesis. (C) 1998 Published by Elsevier Science Ltd. All rights reserved.

Cost functions and duality for stochastic technologies

Cost functions dual to stochastic production technologies are derived and their properties are discussed. These cost functions are shown to be consistent with expected-utility maximization without placing serious structural restrictions on the underlying technology.

Saturation mutagenesis of the beta subunit of the human granulocyte-macrophage colony-stimulating factor receptor shows clustering of constitutive mutations, activation of ERK MAP kinase and STAT pathways, and differential beta subunit tyrosine phosphoryl

The high-affinity receptors for human granulocyte-macrophage colony-stimulating factor (GM-CSF), interleukin-1 (IL-3), and IL-5 are heterodimeric complexes consisting of cytokine-specific alpha subunits and a common signal-transducing beta subunit (h beta c). We have previously demonstrated the oncogenic potential of this group of receptors by identifying constitutively activating point mutations in the extracellular and transmembrane domains of h beta c. We report here a comprehensive screen of the entire h beta c molecule that has led to the identification of additional constitutive point mutations by virtue of their ability to confer factor independence on murine FDC-P1 cells. These mutations were clustered exclusively in a central region of h beta c that encompasses the extracellular membrane-proximal domain, transmembrane domain, and membrane-proximal region of the cytoplasmic domain. Interestingly, most h beta c mutants exhibited cell type-specific constitutive activity, with only two transmembrane domain mutants able to confer factor independence on both murine FDC-P1 and BAF-B03 cells. Examination of the biochemical properties of these mutants in FDC-P1 cells indicated that MAP kinase (ERK1/2), STAT, and JAK2 signaling molecules were constitutively activated. In contrast, only some of the mutant beta subunits were constitutively tyrosine phosphorylated. Taken together; these results highlight key regions involved in h beta c activation, dissociate h beta c tyrosine phosphorylation from MAP kinase and STAT activation, and suggest the involvement of distinct mechanisms by which proliferative signals can be generated by h beta c. (C) 1998 by The American Society of Hematology.

Enhanced downregulation of the p75 nerve growth factor receptor by cholesteryl and bis-cholesteryl antisense oligonucleotides

The effects of conjugating cholesterol to either or both ends of a phosphorothioate (PS) oligonucleotide were analyzed in terms of cellular uptake and antisense efficacy. The oligo sequence was directed against the p75 nerve growth factor receptor (p75), and was tested in differentiated PC12 cells, which express high levels of this protein. The addition of a single cholesteryl group to the 5'-end significantly increased cellular uptake and improved p75 mRNA downregulation compared with the unmodified PS oligo, However, only a minor degree of downregulation of p75 protein was obtained with 5' cholesteryl oligos, Three different linkers was used to attach the 5' cholesteryl group but were found not to have any impact on efficacy. Addition of a single cholesteryl group to the 3'-end led to greater p75 mRNA downregulation (31%) and p75 protein downregulation (28%) than occurred with the 5' cholesteryl oligos. The biggest improvement in antisense efficacy, both at the mRNA and protein levels, was obtained from the conjugation of cholesterol to both ends of the oligo. One of the bis-cholesteryl oligos was nearly as effective as cycloheximide at decreasing synthesis of p75, The bis-cholesteryl oligos also displayed significant efficacy at 1 mu M, whereas the other oligos required 5 mu M to be effective. The enhanced efficacy of bis-cholesteryl oligos is likely to be due to a combination of enhanced cellular uptake and resistance to both 5' and 3' exonucleases.

Fibroblast growth factor receptor expression in outer hair cells of rat cochlea

FIBROBLAST growth factors (FGFs) are critical for normal development of the organ of Corti, and may also protect hair cells from ototoxic damage. Four different fibroblast growth factors are known, three of which have different splice variants in the extracellular immunoglobin-like (Ig) III FGF-binding domain, giving different patterns of sensitivity to the different FGFs. Analysis of a cDNA library of rat outer hair cells by the polymerase chain reaction, using isoform specific primers, showed expression only of FGF receptor 3, splice variant IIIc. This allows us to predict the pattern of sensitivity to applied FGFs, may be useful in targeting outer hair cells selectively during an FGF-based strategy for cochlear therapy. (C) 1998 Lippincott Williams & Wilkins.

Role of the 6-20 disulfide bridge in the structure and activity of epidermal growth factor

Two synthetic analogues of murine epidermal. growth factor, [Abu6, 20] mEGF4-48 (where Abu denotes amino-butyric acid) and [G1, M3, K21, H40] mEGF1-48, have been investigated by NMR spectroscopy. [Abu6, 20] mEGF4-48 was designed to determine the contribution of the 6-20 disulfide bridge to the structure and function of mEGF The overall structure of this analogue was similar to that of native mEGF, indicating that the loss of the 6-20 disulfide bridge did not affect the global fold of the molecule. Significant structural differences were observed near the N-terminus, however, with the direction of the polypeptide chain between residues four and nine being altered such that these residues were now located on the opposite face of the main beta-sheet from their position in native mEGF Thermal denaturation experiments also showed that the structure of [Abu6, 20] mEGF4-48 was less stable than that of mEGF. Removal of this disulfide bridge resulted in a significant loss of both mitogenic activity in Balb/c 3T3 cells and receptor binding on A431 cells compared with native mEGF and mEGF4-48, implying that the structural changes in [Abu6, 20] mEGF4-48, although limited to the N-terminus, were sufficient to interfere with receptor binding. The loss of binding affinity probably arose mainly from steric interactions of the dislocated N-terminal region with part of the receptor binding surface of EGF [G1, M3, K21, H40] mEGF1-48 was also synthesized in order to compare the synthetic polypeptide with the corresponding product of recombinant expression. Its mitogenic activity in Balb/c 3T3 cells was similar to that of native mEGF and analysis of its H-1 chemical shifts suggested that its structure was also very similar to native.

The solution structure of the N-terminal zinc finger of GATA-1 reveals a specific binding face for the transcriptional co-factor FOG

Zinc fingers (ZnFs) are generally regarded as DNA-binding motifs. However, a number of recent reports have implicated particular ZnFs in the mediation of protein-protein interactions. The N-terminal ZnF of GATA-1 (NF) is one such finger, having been shown to interact with a number of other proteins, including the recently discovered transcriptional co-factor FOG. Here we solve the three-dimensional structure of the NF in solution using multidimensional H-1/N-15 NMR spectroscopy, and we use H-1/N-15 spin relation measurements to investigate its backbone dynamics. The structure consists of two distorted beta-hairpins and a single alpha-helix, and is similar to that of the C-terminal ZnF of chicken GATA-1. Comparisons of the NF structure with those of other C-4-type zinc binding motifs, including hormone receptor and LIM domains, also reveal substantial structural homology. Finally, we use the structure to map the spatial locations of NF residues shown by mutagenesis to be essential for FOG binding, and demonstrate that these residues all lie on a single face of the NE Notably, this face is well removed from the putative DNA-binding face of the NE an observation which is suggestive of simultaneous roles for the NF; that is, stabilisation of GATA-1 DNA complexes and recruitment of FOG to GATA-1-controlled promoter regions.