Rock fracture mean trace length estimation and confidence interval calculation using maximum likelihood methods

There has been a resurgence of interest in the mean trace length estimator of Pahl for window sampling of traces. The estimator has been dealt with by Mauldon and Zhang and Einstein in recent publications. The estimator is a very useful one in that it is non-parametric. However, despite some discussion regarding the statistical distribution of the estimator, none of the recent works or the original work by Pahl provide a rigorous basis for the determination a confidence interval for the estimator or a confidence region for the estimator and the corresponding estimator of trace spatial intensity in the sampling window. This paper shows, by consideration of a simplified version of the problem but without loss of generality, that the estimator is in fact the maximum likelihood estimator (MLE) and that it can be considered essentially unbiased. As the MLE, it possesses the least variance of all estimators and confidence intervals or regions should therefore be available through application of classical ML theory. It is shown that valid confidence intervals can in fact be determined. The results of the work and the calculations of the confidence intervals are illustrated by example. (C) 2003 Elsevier Science Ltd. All rights reserved.

A rapid single-step multiplex method for discriminating between Trichogramma (Hymenoptera: Trichogrammatidae) species in Australia

Inaccurate species identification confounds insect ecological studies. Examining aspects of Trichogramma ecology pertinent to the novel insect resistance management strategy for future transgenic cotton, Gossypium hirsutum L., production in the Ord River Irrigation Area (ORIA) of Western Australia required accurate differentiation between morphologically similar Trichogramma species. Established molecular diagnostic methods for Trichogramma identification use species-specific sequence difference in the internal transcribed spacer (ITS)-2 chromosomal region; yet, difficulties arise discerning polymerase chain reaction (PCR) fragments of similar base pair length by gel electrophoresis. This necessitates the restriction enzyme digestion of PCR-amplified ITS-2 fragments to readily differentiate Trichogramma australicum Girault and Trichogramma pretiosum Riley. To overcome the time and expense associated with a two-step diagnostic procedure, we developed a “one-step” multiplex PCR technique using species-specific primers designed to the ITS-2 region. This approach allowed for a high-throughput analysis of samples as part of ongoing ecological studies examining Trichogramma biological control potential in the ORIA where these two species occur in sympatry.

Sonographic estimation of fetal weight in macrosomic fetuses: diabetic versus non-diabetic pregnancies

The objective of this study is to compare the accuracy of sonographic estimation of fetal weight of macrosomic babies in diabetic vs non-diabetic pregnancies. Ali babies weighing 4000 g or more at birth, and who had ultrasound scans performed within one week of delivery were included in this retrospective study. Pregnancies with diabetes mellitus were compared to those without diabetes mellitus. The mean simple error (actual birthweight - estimated fetal weight); mean standardised absolute error (absolute value of simple error (g)/actual birthweight (kg)); and the percentage of estimated birthweight falling within 15% of the actual birthweight between the two groups were compared. There were 9516 deliveries during the study period. Of this total 1211 (12.7 %) babies weighed 4000 g or more. A total of 56 non-diabetic pregnancies and 19 diabetic pregnancies were compared. The average sonographic estimation of fetal weight in diabetic pregnancies was 8 % less than the actual birthweight, compared to 0.2 % in the non-diabetic group (p < 0.01). The estimated fetal weight was within 15% of the birthweight in 74 % of the diabetic pregnancies, compared to 93 % of the non-diabetic pregnancies (p < 0.05). In the diabetic group, 26.3 % of the birthweights were underestimated by more than 15 %, compared to 5.4 % in the non-diabetic group (p < 0.05). In conclusion, the prediction accuracy of fetal weight estimation using standard formulae in macrosomic fetuses is significantly worse in diabetic pregnancies compared to non-diabetic pregnancies. When sonographic fetal weight estimation is used to influence the mode of delivery for diabetic women, a more conservative cut-off needs to be considered.

Heat transfer and flow behind a step in high enthalpy superorbital flow

Heat transfer levels have been investigated behind a rearward-facing step in a superorbital expansion tube. The heat transfer was measured along a flat plate and behind 2 and 3mm steps with the same length to step height ratio. Results were obtained with air as the test gas at speeds of 6.76kms(-1) and 9-60kms(-1) corresponding to stagnation enthalpies of 26MJ/kg and 48MJ/kg respectively. A laminar boundary layer was established on the flat plate and measured heat transfer levels were consistent with classical empirical correlations. In the case of flow behind a step, the measurements showed a gradual rise in heat transfer from the rear of the step to a plateau several step heights downstream for both flow conditions. Reattachment distance was estimated to be approximately 1.6 step heights downstream of the 2mm step at the low enthalpy condition through the use of flow visualisation.

Stereological and other methods applied to rock joint size estimation - Does Crofton's theorem apply?

A number of authors concerned with the analysis of rock jointing have used the idea that the joint areal or diametral distribution can be linked to the trace length distribution through a theorem attributed to Crofton. This brief paper seeks to demonstrate why Crofton's theorem need not be used to link moments of the trace length distribution captured by scan line or areal mapping to the moments of the diametral distribution of joints represented as disks and that it is incorrect to do so. The valid relationships for areal or scan line mapping between all the moments of the trace length distribution and those of the joint size distribution for joints modeled as disks are recalled and compared with those that might be applied were Crofton's theorem assumed to apply. For areal mapping, the relationship is fortuitously correct but incorrect for scan line mapping.

Finite mixture regression model with random effects: application to neonatal hospital length of stay

A two-component mixture regression model that allows simultaneously for heterogeneity and dependency among observations is proposed. By specifying random effects explicitly in the linear predictor of the mixture probability and the mixture components, parameter estimation is achieved by maximising the corresponding best linear unbiased prediction type log-likelihood. Approximate residual maximum likelihood estimates are obtained via an EM algorithm in the manner of generalised linear mixed model (GLMM). The method can be extended to a g-component mixture regression model with the component density from the exponential family, leading to the development of the class of finite mixture GLMM. For illustration, the method is applied to analyse neonatal length of stay (LOS). It is shown that identification of pertinent factors that influence hospital LOS can provide important information for health care planning and resource allocation. (C) 2002 Elsevier Science B.V. All rights reserved.

Modelling inpatient length of stay by a hierarchical mixture regression via the EM algorithm

The modelling of inpatient length of stay (LOS) has important implications in health care studies. Finite mixture distributions are usually used to model the heterogeneous LOS distribution, due to a certain proportion of patients sustaining-a longer stay. However, the morbidity data are collected from hospitals, observations clustered within the same hospital are often correlated. The generalized linear mixed model approach is adopted to accommodate the inherent correlation via unobservable random effects. An EM algorithm is developed to obtain residual maximum quasi-likelihood estimation. The proposed hierarchical mixture regression approach enables the identification and assessment of factors influencing the long-stay proportion and the LOS for the long-stay patient subgroup. A neonatal LOS data set is used for illustration, (C) 2003 Elsevier Science Ltd. All rights reserved.

Targeting a complex transcriptome: The construction of the mouse full-length cDNA encyclopedia

We report the construction of the mouse full-length cDNA encyclopedia, the most extensive view of a complex transcriptome, on the basis of preparing and sequencing 246 libraries. Before cloning, cDNAs were enriched in full-length by Cap-Trapper, and in most cases, aggressively subtracted/normalized. We have produced 1,442,236 successful 3'-end sequences clustered into 171,144 groups, from which 60,770 clones were fully sequenced cDNAs annotated in the FANTOM-2 annotation. We have also produced 547,149 5' end reads, which clustered into 124,258 groups. Altogether, these cDNAs were further grouped in 70,000 transcriptional units (TU), which represent the best coverage of a transcriptome so far. By monitoring the extent of normalization/subtraction, we define the tentative equivalent coverage (TEC), which was estimated to be equivalent to >12,000,000 ESTs derived from standard libraries. High coverage explains discrepancies between the very large. numbers of clusters (and TUs) of this project, which also include non-protein-coding RNAs, and the lower gene number estimation of genome annotations. Altogether, S'-end clusters identify regions that are potential promoters for 8637 known genes and S'-end clusters suggest the presence of almost 63,000 transcriptional starting points. An estimate of the frequency of polyadenylation signals suggests that at least half of the singletons in the EST set represent real mRNAs. Clones accounting for about half of the predicted TUs await further sequencing. The continued high-discovery rate suggests that the task of transcriptome discovery is not yet complete.

Accessing chain length dependent termination rate coefficients of methyl methacrylate (MMA) via the reversible addition fragmentation chain transfer (RAFT) process

The RAFT-CLD-T methodology is demonstrated to be not only applicable to 1-substituted monomers such as styrene and acrylates, but also to 1,1-disubstituted monomers such as MMA. The chain length of the terminating macromolecules is controlled by CPDB in MMA bulk free radical polymerization at 80 degrees C. The evolution of the chain length dependent termination rate coefficient, k(t)(i,i), was constructed in a step-wise fashion, since the MMA/CPDB system displays hybrid behavior (between conventional and living free radical polymerization) resulting in initial high molecular weight polymers formed at low RAFT agent concentrations. The obtained CLD of k(t) in MMA polymerizations is compatible with the composite model for chain length dependent termination. For the initial chain-length regime, up to a degree of polymerization of 100, k(t) decreases with alpha (in the expression k(t)(i,i) = k(t)(0) . i(-alpha)) being close to 0.65 at 80 degrees C. At chain lengths exceeding 100, the decrease is less pronounced (affording an alpha of 0.15 at 80 degrees C). However, the data are best represented by a continuously decreasing nonlinear functionality implying a chain length dependent alpha.

Optimal sampling strategy for estimation of spatial genetic structure in tree populations

Fine-scale spatial genetic structure (SGS) in natural tree populations is largely a result of restricted pollen and seed dispersal. Understanding the link between limitations to dispersal in gene vectors and SGS is of key interest to biologists and the availability of highly variable molecular markers has facilitated fine-scale analysis of populations. However, estimation of SGS may depend strongly on the type of genetic marker and sampling strategy (of both loci and individuals). To explore sampling limits, we created a model population with simulated distributions of dominant and codominant alleles, resulting from natural regeneration with restricted gene flow. SGS estimates from subsamples (simulating collection and analysis with amplified fragment length polymorphism (AFLP) and microsatellite markers) were correlated with the 'real' estimate (from the full model population). For both marker types, sampling ranges were evident, with lower limits below which estimation was poorly correlated and upper limits above which sampling became inefficient. Lower limits (correlation of 0.9) were 100 individuals, 10 loci for microsatellites and 150 individuals, 100 loci for AFLPs. Upper limits were 200 individuals, five loci for microsatellites and 200 individuals, 100 loci for AFLPs. The limits indicated by simulation were compared with data sets from real species. Instances where sampling effort had been either insufficient or inefficient were identified. The model results should form practical boundaries for studies aiming to detect SGS. However, greater sample sizes will be required in cases where SGS is weaker than for our simulated population, for example, in species with effective pollen/seed dispersal mechanisms.

Adsorption of Lennard-Jones fluids in carbon slit pores of a finite length. A computer simulation study

The adsorption of simple Lennard-Jones fluids in a carbon slit pore of finite length was studied with Canonical Ensemble (NVT) and Gibbs Ensemble Monte Carlo Simulations (GEMC). The Canonical Ensemble was a collection of cubic simulation boxes in which a finite pore resides, while the Gibbs Ensemble was that of the pore space of the finite pore. Argon was used as a model for Lennard-Jones fluids, while the adsorbent was modelled as a finite carbon slit pore whose two walls were composed of three graphene layers with carbon atoms arranged in a hexagonal pattern. The Lennard-Jones (LJ) 12-6 potential model was used to compute the interaction energy between two fluid particles, and also between a fluid particle and a carbon atom. Argon adsorption isotherms were obtained at 87.3 K for pore widths of 1.0, 1.5 and 2.0 nm using both Canonical and Gibbs Ensembles. These results were compared with isotherms obtained with corresponding infinite pores using Grand Canonical Ensembles. The effects of the number of cycles necessary to reach equilibrium, the initial allocation of particles, the displacement step and the simulation box size were particularly investigated in the Monte Carlo simulation with Canonical Ensembles. Of these parameters, the displacement step had the most significant effect on the performance of the Monte Carlo simulation. The simulation box size was also important, especially at low pressures at which the size must be sufficiently large to have a statistically acceptable number of particles in the bulk phase. Finally, it was found that the Canonical Ensemble and the Gibbs Ensemble both yielded the same isotherm (within statistical error); however, the computation time for GEMC was shorter than that for canonical ensemble simulation. However, the latter method described the proper interface between the reservoir and the adsorbed phase (and hence the meniscus).

Turbulent Time and Length Scale Measurements in High-Velocity Open Channel Flows

In high-velocity open channel flows, the measurements of air-water flow properties are complicated by the strong interactions between the flow turbulence and the entrained air. In the present study, an advanced signal processing of traditional single- and dual-tip conductivity probe signals is developed to provide further details on the air-water turbulent level, time and length scales. The technique is applied to turbulent open channel flows on a stepped chute conducted in a large-size facility with flow Reynolds numbers ranging from 3.8 E+5 to 7.1 E+5. The air water flow properties presented some basic characteristics that were qualitatively and quantitatively similar to previous skimming flow studies. Some self-similar relationships were observed systematically at both macroscopic and microscopic levels. These included the distributions of void fraction, bubble count rate, interfacial velocity and turbulence level at a macroscopic scale, and the auto- and cross-correlation functions at the microscopic level. New correlation analyses yielded a characterisation of the large eddies advecting the bubbles. Basic results included the integral turbulent length and time scales. The turbulent length scales characterised some measure of the size of large vortical structures advecting air bubbles in the skimming flows, and the data were closely related to the characteristic air-water depth Y90. In the spray region, present results highlighted the existence of an upper spray region for C > 0.95 to 0.97 in which the distributions of droplet chord sizes and integral advection scales presented some marked differences with the rest of the flow.

Transient response of diffusion cell containing a porous solid

Transient response of an adsorbing or non-adsorbing tracer injected as step or square pulse input in a diffusion cell with two flowing streams across the pellet is theoretically investigated in this paper. Exact solutions and the asymptotic solutions in the time domain and in three different limits are obtained by using an integral transform technique and a singular perturbation technique, respectively. Parametric dependence of the concentrations in the top and bottom chambers can be revealed by investigating the asymptotic solutions, which are far simpler than their exact counterpart. In the time domain investigation, it is found that the bottom-chamber concentration is very sensitive to the value of the macropore effective diffusivity. Therefore this concentration could be used to extract diffusivity by fitting in the time domain. The bottom-chamber concentration is also sensitive to flow rate, pellet length chamber volume and the type of input (step and square input).

Turbulence Characterisation of High-Velocity Free-Surface Flows

In high-velocity free-surface flows, air is continuously being trapped and released through the free-surface. Such high-velocity highly-aerated flows cannot be studied numerically because of the large number of relevant equations and parameters. Herein an advanced signal processing of traditional single- and dual-tip conductivity probes provides some new information on the air-water turbulent time and length scales. The technique is applied to turbulent open channel flows in a large-size facility. The auto- and cross-correlation analyses yield some characterisation of the large eddies advecting the bubbles. The transverse integral turbulent length and time scales are related to the step height: i.e., Lxy/h ~ 0.02 to 0.2, and T.sqrt(g/h) ~ 0.004 to 0.04. The results are irrespective of the Reynolds numbers. The present findings emphasise that turbulent dissipation by large-scale vortices is a significant process in the intermediate zone between the spray and bubbly flow regions (0.3 < C < 0.7). Some self-similar relationships were observed systematically at both macroscopic and microscopic levels. The results are significant because they provide a picture general enough to be used to characterise the air-water flow field in prototype spillways.

A Step-by-Step Approach to Transit Oriented Development Project Delivery

A major challenge in successfully implementing transit-oriented development (TOD) is having a robust process that ensures effective appraisal, initiation and delivery of multi-stakeholder TOD projects. A step-by step project development process can assist in the methodic design, evaluation, and initiation of TOD projects. Successful TOD requires attention to transit, mixed-use development and public space. Brisbane, Australia provides a case-study where recent planning policies and infrastructure documents have laid a foundation for TOD, but where barriers lie in precinct level planning and project implementation. In this context and perhaps in others, the research effort needs to shift toward identification of appropriate project processes and strategies. This paper presents the outcomes of research conducted to date. Drawing on the mainstream approach to project development and financial evaluation for property projects, key steps for potential use in successful delivery of TOD projects have been identified, including: establish the framework; location selection; precinct context review; preliminary precinct design; the initial financial viability study; the decision stage; establishment of project structure; land acquisition; development application; and project delivery. The appropriateness of this mainstream development and appraisal process will be tested through stakeholder research, and the proposed process will then be refined for adoption in TOD projects. It is suggested that the criteria for successful TOD should be broadened beyond financial concerns in order to deliver public sector support for project initiation.