A framework for electricity price spike analysis with advanced data mining methods

There are many techniques for electricity market price forecasting. However, most of them are designed for expected price analysis rather than price spike forecasting. An effective method of predicting the occurrence of spikes has not yet been observed in the literature so far. In this paper, a data mining based approach is presented to give a reliable forecast of the occurrence of price spikes. Combined with the spike value prediction techniques developed by the same authors, the proposed approach aims at providing a comprehensive tool for price spike forecasting. In this paper, feature selection techniques are firstly described to identify the attributes relevant to the occurrence of spikes. A simple introduction to the classification techniques is given for completeness. Two algorithms: support vector machine and probability classifier are chosen to be the spike occurrence predictors and are discussed in details. Realistic market data are used to test the proposed model with promising results.

Long-term potentiation of synaptic transmission in the avian hippocampus

The avian hippocampus plays a pivotal role in memory required for spatial navigation and food storing. Here we have examined synaptic transmission and plasticity within the hippocampal formation of the domestic chicken using an in vitro slice preparation. With the use of sharp microelectrodes we have shown that excitatory synaptic inputs in this structure are glutamatergic and activate both NMDA-and AMPA-type receptors on the postsynaptic membrane. In response to tetanic stimulation, the EPSP displayed a robust long-term potentiation (LTP) lasting >1 hr. This LTP was unaffected by blockade of NMDA receptors or chelation of postsynaptic calcium. Application of forskolin increased the EPSP and reduced paired-pulse facilitation: (PPF), indicating an increase in release probability. In contrast, LTP was not associated with a change in the PPF ratio. Induction of LTP did not occlude the effects of forskolin. Thus, in contrast to NMDA receptor-independent LTP in the mammalian brain, LTP in the chicken hippocampus is not attributable to a change in the probability of transmitter release and does not require activation of adenylyl cyclase, These findings indicate that a novel form of synaptic plasticity might underlie learning in the avian hippocampus.

Spatial distribution and developmental appearance of postjunctional P2X(1) receptors on smooth muscle cells of the mouse vas deferens

P2X(1)-type purinoceptors, have been shown to mediate fast transmission between sympathetic varicosities and smooth muscle cells in the mouse vas deferens but the spatial organization of these receptors on the smooth muscle cells remains inconclusive. Voltage clamp techniques were used to estimate the amplitudes of spontaneous excitatory junction currents (SEJCs) in cells of the vas deferens longitudinal smooth muscle layer. These currents involved the activation of about 6% of the P2X-type channels present on the cell, as compared to whole cell currents produced when isolated smooth muscle cells were exposed to maximal concentrations of either ATP or alpha,beta -MeATP. Immunofluorescence staining of the vas deferens with antibodies against P2X(1) receptor showed a diffuse, grainy distribution over the entire membrane of each smooth muscle cell. Anti-P2X(1) staining was not markedly clustered beneath anti-SV2-stained sympathetic varicosities. Similar results were obtained for cells in the urinary bladder. During development, P2X(1) mRNA was detected as early as embryonic day 15 (E15). Increasing intensities of diffuse immunostaining for P2X(1) were observed in the walls of the bladder, tail artery, and aorta from E15 until 6 weeks postnatal. The vas deferens showed increasing intensities of diffuse staining of its smooth muscle layers between 2 and 6 weeks postnatal, consistent with the time-course of development of fast purinergic transmission described previously. Together, the results suggest that the response of smooth muscle of the vas deferens to ATP released from sympathetic varicosities relies on rapidly desensitizing P2X(1) receptors, distributed diffusely across the smooth muscle cell surface. Synapse 42:1-11, 2001. (C) 2001 Wiley-Liss, Inc.

Spatial distribution of vectors of Ross River virus and Barmah Forest virus on Russell Island, Moreton Bay, Queensland

We used a network of 20 carbon dioxide- and octenol-supplemented light traps to sample adult mosquitoes throughout Russell Island in southern Moreton Bay, south-east Queensland. Between February and April 2001, an estimated 1365 564 adult female mosquitoes were collected. In contrast to an average catch of 9754 female mosquitoes per trap night on Russell Island, reference traps set on Macleay Island and on the mainland returned average catches of 3172 and 222, respectively. On Russell Island, Ochlerotatus vigilax (Skuse), Coquillettidia linealis (Skuse), Culex annulirostris Skuse and Verrallina funerea (Theobald), known or suspected vectors of Ross River (RR) and/or Barmah Forest (BF) viruses, comprised 89.6% of the 25 taxa collected. When the spatial distributions of the above species were mapped and analysed using local spatial statistics, all were found to be present in highest numbers towards the southern end of the island during most of the 7 weeks. This indicated the presence of more suitable adult harbourage sites and/or suboptimal larval control efficacy. As immature stages and the breeding habitat of Cq. linealis are as yet undescribed, this species in particular presents a considerable impediment to proposed development scenarios. The method presented here of mapping the numbers of mosquitoes throughout a local government area allows specific areas that have high vector numbers to be defined.

Spatial and temporal definition of Ochlerotatus camptorhynchus (Thomson) (Diptera : Culicidae) in the Gippsland Lakes system of eastern Victoria

The confirmed vector of Ross River virus, Ochlerotatus camptorhynchus (Thomson), is the dominant mosquito species inhabiting saline marshes in coastal Victoria. This paper re-examines previously published data on Oc. camptorhynchus, plus additional data collected since that time, and provides greater spatial and temporal definition of Oc. camptorhynchus numbers at seven sites across the Gippsland Lakes system of eastern Victoria. A total of 357 672 Oc. camptorhynchus was captured from 1188 trap-nights across the seven trap sites during trapping seasons from 1990 to 2001. The dominance of Oc. camptorhynchus across the seven sites averaged 75%, with significant differences in mean abundance of Oc. camptorhynchus found between all trap sites. Significant differences in monthly abundance of Oc. camptorhynchus were observed for Wellington Shire. Increase in populations of Oc. camptorhynchus was associated with increases in rainfall at all trap sites, higher minimum temperatures at two of the seven trap sites, and wind speed at one trap site. Prioritisation of mosquito control may be applied based on spatial and temporal factors according to the findings of this study.

Ross River virus disease clusters and spatial relationship with mosquito biting exposure in Redland Shire, southern Queensland, Australia

The spatial heterogeneity in the risk of Ross River virus (family Togaviridae, genus Alphavirus, RRV) disease, the most common mosquito-borne disease in Australia, was examined in Redland Shire in southern Queensland, Australia. Disease cases, complaints from residents of intense mosquito biting exposure, and human population data were mapped using a geographic information system. Surface maps of RRV disease age-sex standardized morbidity ratios and mosquito biting complaint morbidity ratios were created. To determine whether there was significant spatial variation in disease and complaint patterns, a spatial scan analysis method was used to test whether the number of cases and complaints was distributed according to underlying population at risk. Several noncontiguous areas in proximity to productive saline water habitats of Aedes vigilax (Skuse), a recognized vector of RRV, had higher than expected numbers of RRV disease cases and complaints. Disease rates in human populations in areas which had high numbers of adult Ae. vigilax in carbon dioxide- and octenol-baited light traps were up to 2.9 times those in areas that rarely had high numbers of mosquitoes. It was estimated that targeted control of adult Ae. vigilax in these high-risk areas could potentially reduce the RRV disease incidence by an average of 13.6%. Spatial correlation was found between RRV disease risk and complaints from residents of mosquito biting. Based on historical patterns of RRV transmission throughout Redland Shire and estimated future human population growth in areas with higher than average RRV disease incidence, it was estimated that RRV incidence rates will increase by 8% between 2001 and 2021. The use of arbitrary administrative areas that ranged in size from 4.6 to 318.3 km2, has the potential to mask any small scale heterogeneity in disease patterns. With the availability of georeferenced data sets and high-resolution imagery, it is becoming more feasible to undertake spatial analyses at relatively small scales.

Transmission mode and distribution of parasites among groups of the social lizard Egernia stokesii

We explored patterns of infection of three apicomplexan blood parasites with different transmission mechanisms in 46 social groups across seven populations of the Australian lizard, Egernia stokesii. There was higher aggregation of infections within social groups for Hemolivia, transmitted by ticks, and Schellackia, either tick-transmitted or directly transmitted from mother to offspring, than for Plasmodium, with more mobile dipteran vectors. Prevalence was not related to group size, proximity to other groups or spatial overlap with adjacent groups for any of the parasites. However, for Hemolivia, groups with higher levels of relatedness among adults had higher parasite prevalence. Living in social groups leads to higher risk of infection for parasites with low transmission mobility. An unanswered question is why so few lizard species tolerate these risks to form stable social aggregations.

Semantic caching for multiresolution spatial query processing in mobile environments

Spatial data are particularly useful in mobile environments. However, due to the low bandwidth of most wireless networks, developing large spatial database applications becomes a challenging process. In this paper, we provide the first attempt to combine two important techniques, multiresolution spatial data structure and semantic caching, towards efficient spatial query processing in mobile environments. Based on the study of the characteristics of multiresolution spatial data (MSD) and multiresolution spatial query, we propose a new semantic caching model called Multiresolution Semantic Caching (MSC) for caching MSD in mobile environments. MSC enriches the traditional three-category query processing in semantic cache to five categories, thus improving the performance in three ways: 1) a reduction in the amount and complexity of the remainder queries; 2) the redundant transmission of spatial data already residing in a cache is avoided; 3) a provision for satisfactory answers before 100% query results have been transmitted to the client side. Our extensive experiments on a very large and complex real spatial database show that MSC outperforms the traditional semantic caching models significantly

A hybrid probabilistic criterion for market-based transmission expansion planning

Market-based transmission expansion planning gives information to investors on where is the most cost efficient place to invest and brings benefits to those who invest in this grid. However, both market issue and power system adequacy problems are system planers’ concern. In this paper, a hybrid probabilistic criterion of Expected Economical Loss (EEL) is proposed as an index to evaluate the systems’ overall expected economical losses during system operation in a competitive market. It stands on both investors’ and planner’s point of view and will further improves the traditional reliability cost. By applying EEL, it is possible for system planners to obtain a clear idea regarding the transmission network’s bottleneck and the amount of losses arises from this weak point. Sequentially, it enables planners to assess the worth of providing reliable services. Also, the EEL will contain valuable information for moneymen to undertake their investment. This index could truly reflect the random behaviors of power systems and uncertainties from electricity market. The performance of the EEL index is enhanced by applying Normalized Coefficient of Probability (NCP), so it can be utilized in large real power systems. A numerical example is carried out on IEEE Reliability Test System (RTS), which will show how the EEL can predict the current system bottleneck under future operational conditions and how to use EEL as one of planning objectives to determine future optimal plans. A well-known simulation method, Monte Carlo simulation, is employed to achieve the probabilistic characteristic of electricity market and Genetic Algorithms (GAs) is used as a multi-objective optimization tool.

The potential of virulent Wolbachia to modulate disease transmission by insects

A virulent strain of Wolbachia has recently been identified in Drosophila that drastically reduces adult lifespan. It has been proposed that this phenotype might be introduced into insect disease vector populations to reduce pathogen transmission. Here we model the requirements for spread of such an agent and the associated reduction in disease transmission. First, a simulation of mosquito population age structure was used to describe the age distribution of mosquitoes transmitting dengue virus. Second, given varying levels of cytoplasmic incompatibility and fecundity effect, the maximum possible longevity reduction that would allow Wolbachia to invade was obtained. Finally, the two models were combined to estimate the reduction in disease transmission according to different introduction frequencies. With strong CI and limited effect of fecundity, an introduction of Wolbachia with an initial frequency of 0.4 could result in a 60–80% reduction of transmitting mosquitoes. Greater reductions are possible at higher initial release rates.

Maternal transmission efficiency of Wolbachia superinfections in Aedes albopictus populations in Thailand

We examined the transmission efficiency of 2 strains of Wolbachia bacteria that cause cytoplasmic incompatibility in field populations of Aedes albopictus by polymerase chain reaction assay. We found mainland and island populations throughout Thailand to be superinfected with group A and B bacteria. Of 320 Wolbachia-positive adult mosquitoes, 97.5% were infected with both groups. Single infected individuals of each Wolbachia group were encountered in nearly equal numbers. We screened 550 offspring from 80 field-collected mothers and found the transmission efficiency of group A Wolbachia to be 96.7% and that of group B Wolbachia to be 99.6%. Mothers that did not transmit both Wolbachia infections to all of their offspring were significantly larger in size than those with perfect transmission fidelity. We discuss our findings in relation to the prospects of the use of Wolbachia as a gene-driving mechanism.

Evolution of Wolbachia pipientis transmission dynamics in insects

Wolbachia pipientis is an intracellular bacterial parasite of arthropods that enhances its transmission by manipulating host reproduction, most commonly by inducing cytoplasmic incompatibility. The discovery of isolates with modified cytoplasmic incompatibility phenotypes and others with novel virulence properties is an indication of the potential breadth of evolutionary strategies employed by Wolbachia.