Exposing extinction risk analysis to pathogens: Is disease just another form of density dependence?

In the United States and several other countries., the development of population viability analyses (PVA) is a legal requirement of any species survival plan developed for threatened and endangered species. Despite the importance of pathogens in natural populations, little attention has been given to host-pathogen dynamics in PVA. To study the effect of infectious pathogens on extinction risk estimates generated from PVA, we review and synthesize the relevance of host-pathogen dynamics in analyses of extinction risk. We then develop a stochastic, density-dependent host-parasite model to investigate the effects of disease on the persistence of endangered populations. We show that this model converges on a Ricker model of density dependence under a suite of limiting assumptions, including. a high probability that epidemics will arrive and occur. Using this modeling framework, we then quantify: (1) dynamic differences between time series generated by disease and Ricker processes with the same parameters; (2) observed probabilities of quasi-extinction for populations exposed to disease or self-limitation; and (3) bias in probabilities of quasi-extinction estimated by density-independent PVAs when populations experience either form of density dependence. Our results suggest two generalities about the relationships among disease, PVA, and the management of endangered species. First, disease more strongly increases variability in host abundance and, thus, the probability of quasi-extinction, than does self-limitation. This result stems from the fact that the effects and the probability of occurrence of disease are both density dependent. Second, estimates of quasi-extinction are more often overly optimistic for populations experiencing disease than for those subject to self-limitation. Thus, although the results of density-independent PVAs may be relatively robust to some particular assumptions about density dependence, they are less robust when endangered populations are known to be susceptible to disease. If potential management actions involve manipulating pathogens, then it may be useful to. model disease explicitly.

Outbreaks of pink wax scale, Ceroplastes rubens Maskell (Hemiptera : Coccidae), on umbrella trees in south-eastern Queensland: Patterns of parasitisation

The degree and distribution of parasitisation in relation to densities of pink wax scale, Ceroplastes rubens Maskell, on umbrella trees, Schefflera actinophylla (Endl.), in south-eastern Queensland were investigated to determine whether scale outbreaks could be attributed, in part, to low levels of parasitisation. Rates of parasitisation were independent of or inversely dependent on host density, and highly variable, especially at low densities. The absence of density dependent parasitisation may occur as a result of: (i) non-aggregation by parasitoids; (ii) aggregation by parasitoids where parasitisation is limited by intrinsic or extrinsic factors; and/or (iii) high rates of hyperparasitisation.

Effects of settler size and density on early post-settlement survival of Ciona intestinalis in the field

Effects of variation in larval quality on post-metamorphic performance in marine invertebrates are increasingly apparent. Recently, it has been shown that variation in offspring size can also strongly affect post-settlement survival, but variation in environmental conditions can mediate this effect. The quality of habitat into which marine invertebrate larvae settle can vary markedly, and 1 influence on quality is the number of conspecifics present. We tested the effects of settler size and settler density on early (1 wk after settlement) post-settlement survival in the field for the solitary ascidian Ciona intestinalis. Larger settlers survived better than smaller settlers, within and among groups of siblings. Increases in the density of settlers decreased survival, but the density-dependent effects were much stronger for smaller settlers. We suggest that larger settlers are better able to cope with intra-specific competition because they have greater energetic reserves or a greater capacity to feed than smaller settlers.

Three-dimensional model for multi-component reactive transport with variable density groundwater flow

PHWAT is a new model that couples a geochemical reaction model (PHREEQC-2) with a density-dependent groundwater flow and solute transport model (SEAWAT) using the split-operator approach. PHWAT was developed to simulate multi-component reactive transport in variable density groundwater flow. Fluid density in PHWAT depends not on only the concentration of a single species as in SEAWAT, but also the concentrations of other dissolved chemicals that can be subject to reactive processes. Simulation results of PHWAT and PHREEQC-2 were compared in their predictions of effluent concentration from a column experiment. Both models produced identical results, showing that PHWAT has correctly coupled the sub-packages. PHWAT was then applied to the simulation of a tank experiment in which seawater intrusion was accompanied by cation exchange. The density dependence of the intrusion and the snow-plough effect in the breakthrough curves were reflected in the model simulations, which were in good agreement with the measured breakthrough data. Comparison simulations that, in turn, excluded density effects and reactions allowed us to quantify the marked effect of ignoring these processes. Next, we explored numerical issues involved in the practical application of PHWAT using the example of a dense plume flowing into a tank containing fresh water. It was shown that PHWAT could model physically unstable flow and that numerical instabilities were suppressed. Physical instability developed in the model in accordance with the increase of the modified Rayleigh number for density-dependent flow, in agreement with previous research. (c) 2004 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Habitat selection and population regulation in temporally fluctuating environments

Understanding and predicting the distribution of organisms in heterogeneous environments lies at the heart of ecology, and the theory of density-dependent habitat selection (DDHS) provides ecologists with an inferential framework linking evolution and population dynamics. Current theory does not allow for temporal variation in habitat quality, a serious limitation when confronted with real ecological systems. We develop both a stochastic equivalent of the ideal free distribution to study how spatial patterns of habitat use depend on the magnitude and spatial correlation of environmental stochasticity and also a stochastic habitat selection rule. The emerging patterns are confronted with deterministic predictions based on isodar analysis, an established empirical approach to the analysis of habitat selection patterns. Our simulations highlight some consistent patterns of habitat use, indicating that it is possible to make inferences about the habitat selection process based on observed patterns of habitat use. However, isodar analysis gives results that are contingent on the magnitude and spatial correlation of environmental stochasticity. Hence, DDHS is better revealed by a measure of habitat selectivity than by empirical isodars. The detection of DDHS is but a small component of isodar theory, which remains an important conceptual framework for linking evolutionary strategies in behavior and population dynamics.

Of sheep and rain: large-scale population dynamics of the red kangaroo

1. We analysed time-series data from populations of red kangaroos (Macropus rufus, Desmarest) inhabiting four areas in the pastoral zone of South Australia. We formulated a set of a priori models to disentangle the relative effects of the covariates: rainfall, harvesting, intraspecific competition, and domestic herbivores, on kangaroo population-growth rate. 2. The statistical framework allowed for spatial variation in the growth-rate parameters, response to covariates, and environmental variability, as well as spatially correlated error terms due to shared environment. 3. The most parsimonious model included all covariates but no area-specific parameter values, suggesting that kangaroo densities respond in the same way to the covariates across the areas. 4. The temporal dynamics were spatially correlated, even after taking into account the potentially synchronizing effect of rainfall, harvesting and domestic herbivores. 5. Counter-intuitively, we found a positive rather than negative effect of domestic herbivore density on the population-growth rate of kangaroos. We hypothesize that this effect is caused by sheep and cattle acting as a surrogate for resource availability beyond rainfall. 6. Even though our system is well studied, we must conclude that approximating resources by surrogates such as rainfall is more difficult than previously thought. This is an important message for studies of consumer-resource systems and highlights the need to be explicit about population processes when analysing population patterns.

Accounting for management costs in sensitivity analyses of matrix population models

Traditional sensitivity and elasticity analyses of matrix population models have been used to p inform management decisions, but they ignore the economic costs of manipulating vital rates. For exam le, the growth rate of a population is often most sensitive to changes in adult survival rate, but this does not mean that increasing that rate is the best option for managing the population because it may be much more expensive than other options. To explore how managers should optimize their manipulation of vital rates, we incorporated the cost of changing those rates into matrix population models. We derived analytic expressions for locations in parameter space where managers should shift between management of fecundity and survival, for the balance between fecundity and survival management at those boundaries, and for the allocation of management resources to sustain that optimal balance. For simple matrices, the optimal budget allocation can often be expressed as simple functions of vital rates and the relative costs of changing them. We applied our method to management of the Helmeted Honeyeater (Lichenostomus melanops cassidix; an endangered Australian bird) and the koala (Phascolarctos cinereus) as examples. Our method showed that cost-efficient management of the Helmeted Honeyeater should focus on increasing fecundity via nest protection, whereas optimal koala management should focus on manipulating both fecundity and survival simultaneously, These findings are contrary to the cost-negligent recommendations of elasticity analysis, which would suggest focusing on managing survival in both cases. A further investigation of Helmeted Honeyeater management options, based on an individual-based model incorporating density dependence, spatial structure, and environmental stochasticity, confirmed that fecundity management was the most cost-effective strategy. Our results demonstrate that decisions that ignore economic factors will reduce management efficiency.

Sensitive detection of nitric oxide using seeded parametric four-wave mixing

A sensitive near-resonant four-wave mixing technique based on two-photon parametric four-wave mixing has been developed. Seeded parametric four-wave mixing requires only a single laser as an additional phase matched seeder field is generated via parametric four-wave mixing of the pump beam in a high gain cell. The seeder field travels collinearly with the pump beam providing efficient nondegenerate four-wave mixing in a second medium. This simple arrangement facilitates the detection of complex molecular spectra by simply scanning the pump laser. Seeded parametric four-wave mixing is demonstrated in both a low pressure cell and an air/acetylene flame with detection of the two-photon C (2) Pi(upsilon'=0)<--X (2) Pi(upsilon =0) spectrum of nitric oxide. From the cell data a detection limit of 10(12) molecules/cm(3) is established. A theoretical model of seeded parametric four-wave mixing is developed from existing parametric four-wave mixing theory. The addition of the seeder field significantly modifies the parametric four-wave mixing behaviour such that in the small signal regime, the signal intensity can readily be made to scale as the cube of the laser pump power while the density dependence follows a more familiar square law dependence, In general, we find excellent agreement between theory and experiment. Limitations to the process result from an ac Stark shift of the two-photon resonance in the high pressure seeder cell caused by the generation of a strong seeder field, as well as a reduction in phase matching efficiency due to the presence of certain buffer species. Various optimizations are suggested which should overcome these limitations, providing even greater detection sensitivity. (C) 1998 American Institute of Physics, [S0021-9606(98)01014-9].

Role of Diadegma semiclausum (Hymenoptera: Ichneumonidae) in controlling Plutella xylostella (Lepidoptera: Plutellidae): Cage exclusion experiments and direct observation

We evaluated the role of the larval parasitoid, Diadegma semiclausum Hellen (Hymenoptera: Ichneumonidae), in controlling Plutella xylostella (L.) (Lepidoptera: Plutellidae) by cage exclusion experiments and direct field observation during the winter season in southern Queensland, Australia. The cage exclusion experiment involved uncaged, open cage and closed cage treatments. A higher percentage (54-83%) of P. xylostella larvae on sentinel plants were lost in the uncaged treatment than the closed (4-9%) or open cage treatments (11-29%). Of the larvae that remained in the uncaged treatment, 72-94% were parasitized by D. semiclausum , much higher than that in the open cage treatment (8-37% in first trial, and 38-63% in second trial). Direct observations showed a significant aggregation response of the field D. semiclausum populations to high host density plants in an experimental plot and to high host density plots that were artificially set-up near to the parasitoid source fields. The degree of aggregation varied in response to habitat quality of the parasitoid source field and scales of the manipulated host patches. As a result, density-dependence in the pattern of parasitism may depend on the relative degree of aggregation of the parasitoid population at a particular scale. A high degree of aggregation seems to be necessary to generate density-dependent parasitism by D. semiclausum . Integration of the cage exclusion experiment and direct observation demonstrated the active and dominant role of this parasitoid in controlling P. xylostella in the winter season. A biologically based IPM strategy, which incorporates the use of D. semiclausum with Bt, is suggested for the management of P. xylostella in seasons or regions with a mild temperature.

On parameter estimation in population models

We describe methods for estimating the parameters of Markovian population processes in continuous time, thus increasing their utility in modelling real biological systems. A general approach, applicable to any finite-state continuous-time Markovian model, is presented, and this is specialised to a computationally more efficient method applicable to a class of models called density-dependent Markov population processes. We illustrate the versatility of both approaches by estimating the parameters of the stochastic SIS logistic model from simulated data. This model is also fitted to data from a population of Bay checkerspot butterfly (Euphydryas editha bayensis), allowing us to assess the viability of this population. (c) 2006 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Effect of density on spatial distribution, pit formation and pit diameter of Myrmeleon acer Walker, (Neuroptera : Myrmeleontidae): patterns and processes

The effect of increasing population density on the formation of pits, their size and spatial distribution, and on levels of mortality was examined in the antlion Myrmeleon acer Walker. Antlions were kept at densities ranging from 0.4 to 12.8 individuals per 100 cm(2). The distribution of pits was regular or uniform across all densities, but antlions constructed proportionally fewer and smaller pits as density increased. Mortality through cannibalism was very low and only occurred at densities greater than five individuals per 100 cm(2). Antlions in artificially crowded situations frequently relocated their pits and when more space became available, individuals became more dispersed with time. Redistribution of this species results from active avoidance of other antlions and sand throwing associated with pit construction and maintenance, rather than any attempt to optimise prey capture per se.

The muscle strength and bone density relationship in young women: dependence on exercise status

Aim. Numerous studies report an association between muscle strength and bone mineral density (BMD) in young and older women. However, the participants are generally non-athletes, thus it is unclear if the relationship varies by exercise status. Therefore, the purpose was to examine the relationships between BMD and muscle strength in young women with markedly different exercise levels. Methods. Experimental design: cross-sectional. Setting: a University research laboratory. Participants: 18 collegiate gymnasts and 22 age- and weight-matched recreationally active control women. Measures: lumbar spine, femoral neck, arm, leg and whole body BMD (g/cm(2)) were assessed by dual X-ray absorptiometry. In addition, lumbar spine and femoral neck bone mineral apparent density (BMAD, g/cm(3)) was calculated. Handgrip strength and knee extensor and flexor torque (60degrees/s) were determined by dynamometry, and bench press and leg press strength (1-RM) using isotonic equipment. Results. BMD at all sites and bench press, leg press and knee flexor strength were greater in gymnasts than controls (p

Do predators aggregate in response to pest density in agroecosystems? Assessing within-field spatial patterns

1. The spatial heterogeneity of predator populations is an important component of ecological theories pertaining to predator-prey dynamics. Most studies within agricultural fields show spatial correlation (positive or negative) between mean predator numbers and prey abundance across a whole field over time but generally ignore the within-field spatial dimension. We used explicit spatial mapping to determine if generalist predators aggregated within a soybean field, the size of these aggregations and if predator aggregation was associated with pest aggregation, plant damage and predation rate. 2. The study was conducted at Gatton in the Lockyer Valley, 90 km west of Brisbane, Australia. Intensive sampling grids were used to investigate within-field spatial patterns. The first row of each grid was located in a lucerne field (10 m from interface) and the remaining rows were in an adjacent soybean field. At each point on the grid the abundance of foliage-dwelling and ground-dwelling pests and predators was measured, predation rates [using sentinel Helicoverpa armigera (Hubner) egg cards] and plant damage were estimated. Eight grids were sampled across two summer cropping seasons (2000/01, 2001/02). 3. Predators exhibited strong spatial patterning with regions of high and low abundance and activity within what are considered to be uniform soybean fields. Ground-dwelling and foliage-dwelling predators were often aggregated in patches approximately 40 m across. 4. Lycosidae (wolf spiders) displayed aggregation and were consistently more abundant within the lucerne, with a decreasing trap catch with distance from the lucrene/soybean interface. This trend was consistent between subsequent grids in a single field and between fields. 5. The large amount of spatial variability in within-field arthropod abundance (pests and predators) and activity (egg predation and plant damage) indicates that whole field averages were misleading. This result has serious implications for sampling of arthropod abundance and pest management decision-making based on scouting data. 6. There was a great deal of temporal change in the significant spatial patterns observed within a field at each sampling time point during a single season. Predator and pest aggregations observed in these fields were generally not stable for the entire season. 7. Predator aggregation did not correlate consistently with pest aggregation, plant damage or predation rate. Spatial patterns in predator abundance were not associated consistently with any single parameter measured. The most consistent positive association was between foliage-dwelling predators and pests (significant in four of seven grids). Inferring associations between predators and prey based on an intensive one-off sampling grid is difficult, due to the temporal variability in the abundance of each group. 8. Synthesis and applications. This study demonstrated that generalist predator populations are rarely distributed randomly and field edges and adjacent crops can have an influence on within-field predator abundance. This must be considered when estimating arthropod (pest and predator) abundance from a set of samples taken at random locations within a field.

High-resolution bulk density images, using calibrated X-ray radiography of impregnated soil slices

Bulk density of undisturbed soil samples can be measured using computed tomography (CT) techniques with a spatial resolution of about 1 mm. However, this technique may not be readily accessible. On the other hand, x-ray radiographs have only been considered as qualitative images to describe morphological features. A calibration procedure was set up to generate two-dimensional, high-resolution bulk density images from x-ray radiographs made with a conventional x-ray diffraction apparatus. Test bricks were made to assess the accuracy of the method. Slices of impregnated soil samples were made using hardsetting seedbeds that had been gamma scanned at 5-mm depth increments in a previous study. The calibration procedure involved three stages: (i) calibration of the image grey levels in terms of glass thickness using a staircase made from glass cover slips, (ii) measurement of ratio between the soil and resin mass attenuation coefficients and the glass mass attenuation coefficient, using compacted bricks of known thickness and bulk density, and (iii) image correction accounting for the heterogeneity of the irradiation field. The procedure was simple, rapid, and the equipment was easily accessible. The accuracy of the bulk density determination was good (mean relative error 0.015), The bulk density images showed a good spatial resolution, so that many structural details could be observed. The depth functions were consistent with both the global shrinkage and the gamma probe data previously obtained. The suggested method would be easily applied to the new fuzzy set approach of soil structure, which requires generation of bulk density images. Also, it would be an invaluable tool for studies requiring high-resolution bulk density measurement, such as studies on soil surface crusts.