El Nino and arboviral disease prediction

Recent El Nino events have stimulated interest in the development of modeling techniques to forecast extremes of climate and related health events. Previous studies have documented associations between specific climate variables (particularly temperature and rainfall) and outbreaks of arboviral disease. In some countries, such diseases are sensitive to Fl Nino. Here we describe a climate-based model for the prediction of Ross River virus epidemics in Australia. From a literature search and data on case notifications, we determined in which years there were epidemics of Ross River virus in southern Australia between 1928 and 1998. Predictor variables were monthly Southern Oscillation index values for the year of an epidemic or lagged by 1 year. We found that in southeastern states, epidemic years were well predicted by monthly Southern Oscillation index values in January and September in the previous year. The model forecasts that there is a high probability of epidemic Ross River virus in the southern states of Australia in 1999. We conclude that epidemics of arboviral disease can, at least in principle, be predicted on the basis of climate relationships.

Remotely sensed estimates of vegetation structural characteristics in restored wetlands, Southern California

Traditional field sampling approaches for ecological studies of restored habitat can only cover small areas in detail, con be time consuming, and are often invasive and destructive. Spatially extensive and non-invasive remotely sensed data can make field sampling more focused and efficient. The objective of this work was to investigate the feasibility and accuracy of hand-held and airborne remotely sensed data to estimate vegetation structural parameters for an indicator plant species in a restored wetland. High spatial resolution, digital, multispectral camera images were captured from an aircraft over Sweetwater Marsh (San Diego County, California) during each growing season between 1992-1996. Field data were collected concurrently, which included plant heights, proportional ground cover and canopy architecture type, and spectral radiometer measurements. Spartina foliosa (Pacific cordgrass) is the indicator species for the restoration monitoring. A conceptual model summarizing the controls on the spectral reflectance properties of Pacific cordgrass was established. Empirical models were developed relating the stem length, density, and canopy architecture of cordgrass to normalized-difference-vegetation-index values. The most promising results were obtained from empirical estimates of total ground cover using image data that had been stratified into high, middle, and low marsh zones. As part of on-going restoration monitoring activities, this model is being used to provide maps of estimated vegetation cover.

Diversity of Phytophthora clandestina isolated from subterranean clover in southern australia: Analysis of virulence and RAPD profiles

The virulence spectrum of 112 isolates of Phytophthora clandestina collected from 56 sites in four subterranean clover-growing states in southern Australia was determined using differential cultivars of subterranean clover. Five races were detected, with race 0 in all states except New South Wales, race 1 in all states, race 2 only in Victoria, race 3 only in New South Wales, and race 4 in Victoria and Western Australia. The level of genotypic diversity among the different P. clandestina populations was investigated using five RAPD primers. Among 30 bands amplified, only two were polymorphic. This enabled identification of four multilocus RAPD genotypes. Three of the four genotypes occurred in all four states. Races 2 and 3 occurred with RAPD genotypes 1 and 2 only whereas races 0 and 1 occurred in all four multilocus RAPD genotypes. These results indicate that the pathogenicity spectrum of P. clandestina can change rapidly.