Using circular statistics to analyse time patterns in crime incidence

A set of techniques referred to as circular statistics has been developed for the analysis of directional and orientational data. The unit of measure for such data is angular (usually in either degrees or radians), and the statistical distributions underlying the techniques are characterised by their cyclic nature-for example, angles of 359.9 degrees are considered close to angles of 0 degrees. In this paper, we assert that such approaches can be easily adapted to analyse time-of-day and time-of-week data, and in particular daily cycles in the numbers of incidents reported to the police. We begin the paper by describing circular statistics. We then discuss how these may be modified, and demonstrate the approach with some examples for reported incidents in the Cardiff area of Wales. (c) 2005 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Escalation and deceleration of offending behaviours from adolescence to early adulthood

Relatively little longitudinal research is available in Australia to describe I the age/crime relationship in much detail, particularly patterns of offending occurring during the transition from adolescence to early adulthood. This paper addresses this issue using self-reported criminal involvement from a school-based sample, a group of socially disadvantaged individuals, and a group of officially identified offenders. The findings support the widespread research that rates of offending peak during adolescence, at which time offending is widespread, and that the criminal career is of relatively short duration. However, the results also demonstrate that the age/crime curve is not a unitary phenomenon. The type of offending behaviour being considered, the gender of the population, and the perpetrator's exposure to the criminal justice system contribute to the variability in the curve. In this study, the prevalence and mean level of overall offending for the total sample was higher during early adulthood than adolescence for vehicle offences and drug-use, rates of theft were similar in both periods, and vandalism and serious offending were lower. In addition, socially disadvantaged young people reported involvement in crime that peaked and desisted earlier in the life course compared to the school-based sample, and gender differences within these groups were also found. For the school-based sample, offending for females began and desisted earlier than for males, but within the at-risk group, the opposite was true. Implications for crime-prevention programming are discussed.

Genetic covariation of pelvic organ and elbow mobility in twins and their sisters

A range of environmental risk factors, with childbirth the most notable, have been associated with the development of pelvic organ prolapse and urinary incontinence. However, indications of genetic influence (positive family histories, ethnic differences) have prompted research into the heritability of measures of pelvic organ descent and joint mobility, which have also been associated with prolapse and incontinence. Genes appear to influence about half of the variation in these measures and, furthermore, the pelvic organ measures are associated with elbow hyperextension at a phenotypic level (r approximate to .2). We examined these measures in young, nulligravid women to determine if their association is due to a common genetic source. Data were collected from 178 Caucasian female co-twins and non-twin sisters, 50 of whom returned to be retested, which allowed reliability to be estimated and unreliable variance to be isolated in the multivariate analyses. Structural equation modeling was used to estimate genetic associations between latent elbow and bladder mobility factors for which heritabilities were estimated to be 0.80 and 0.64 respectively. The association between these factors appeared to be mediated by common genes (genetic r = .48, non-shared environmental r = -.06), with genes influencing latent elbow mobility accounting for 14% of the variation in latent bladder mobility. We speculate that genes influencing connective tissue structure may underlie this association.

A deletion mutation in GDF9 in sisters with spontaneous DZ twins

A loss of function mutation in growth differentiation factor 9 (GDF9) in sheep causes increased ovulation rate and infertility in a dosage-sensitive manner. Spontaneous dizygotic (DZ) twinning in the human is under genetic control and women with a history of DZ twinning have an increased incidence of multiple follicle growth and multiple ovulation. We sequenced the GDF9 coding region in DNA samples from 20 women with DZ twins and identified a four-base pair deletion in GDF9 in two sisters with twins from one family. We screened a further 429 families and did not find the loss of function mutation in any other families. We genotyped eight single nucleotide polymorphisms across the GDF9 locus in 379 families with two sisters who have both given birth to spontaneous DZ twins (1527 individuals) and 226 triad families with mothers of twins and their parents (723 individuals). Using case control analysis and the transmission disequilibrium test we found no evidence for association between common variants in GDF9 and twinning in the families. We conclude that rare mutations in GDF9 may influence twinning, but twinning frequency is not associated with common variation in GDF9.

Was an increase in cocaine use among injecting drug users in New South Wales, Australia, accompanied by an increase in violent crime?

Background: A sharp reduction in heroin supply in Australia in 2001 was followed by a large but transient increase in cocaine use among injecting drug users (IDU) in Sydney. This paper assesses whether the increase in cocaine use among IDU was accompanied by increased rates of violent crime as occurred in the United States in the 1980s. Specifically, the paper aims to examine the impact of increased cocaine use among Sydney IDU upon police incidents of robbery with a weapon, assault and homicide. Methods: Data on cocaine use among IDU was obtained from the Illicit Drug Reporting System (IDRS). Monthly NSW Police incident data on arrests for cocaine possession/ use, robbery offences, homicides, and assaults, were obtained from the Bureau of Crime Statistics and Research. Time series analysis was conducted on the police data series where possible. Semi-structured interviews were conducted with representatives from law enforcement and health agencies about the impacts of cocaine use on crime and policing. Results: There was a significant increase in cocaine use and cocaine possession offences in the months immediately following the reduction in heroin supply. There was also a significant increase in incidents of robbery where weapons were involved. There were no increases in offences involving firearms, homicides or reported assaults. Conclusion: The increased use of cocaine among injecting drug users following the heroin shortage led to increases in violent crime. Other States and territories that also experienced a heroin shortage but did not show any increases in cocaine use did not report any increase in violent crimes. The violent crimes committed did not involve guns, most likely because of its stringent gun laws, in contrast to the experience of American cities that have experienced high rates of cocaine use and violent crime.

Fear of crime in Brisbane - Individual, social and neighbourhood factors in perspective

Numerous theories apply to fear of crime and each are associated with different kinds of variables. Most studies use only one theory, though this study examines the relative importance of different kinds of variables across a number of theories. The study uses data from a survey of residents in Brisbane, Australia to examine the relative importance of individual attributes, neighbourhood disorder, social processes and neighbourhood structure in predicting fear of crime. Individual attributes and neighbourhood disorder were found to be important predictors of fear of crime, while social processes and neighbourhood structure were found to be far less important. The theoretical implications are that the vulnerability hypothesis and the incivilities thesis are most appropriate for investigating fear of crime, though social disorganization theory does provide conceptual support for the incivilities thesis. Although social processes are less important in predicting fear of crime than neighbourhood incivilities, they are still integrally related to fear of crime: they explain how incivilities arise, they buffer against fear of crime, and they are affected by fear of crime.