Assessing the impacts of grazing levels on bird density in woodland habitat: a Bayesian approach using expert opinion

Many studies on birds focus on the collection of data through an experimental design, suitable for investigation in a classical analysis of variance (ANOVA) framework. Although many findings are confirmed by one or more experts, expert information is rarely used in conjunction with the survey data to enhance the explanatory and predictive power of the model. We explore this neglected aspect of ecological modelling through a study on Australian woodland birds, focusing on the potential impact of different intensities of commercial cattle grazing on bird density in woodland habitat. We examine a number of Bayesian hierarchical random effects models, which cater for overdispersion and a high frequency of zeros in the data using WinBUGS and explore the variation between and within different grazing regimes and species. The impact and value of expert information is investigated through the inclusion of priors that reflect the experience of 20 experts in the field of bird responses to disturbance. Results indicate that expert information moderates the survey data, especially in situations where there are little or no data. When experts agreed, credible intervals for predictions were tightened considerably. When experts failed to agree, results were similar to those evaluated in the absence of expert information. Overall, we found that without expert opinion our knowledge was quite weak. The fact that the survey data is quite consistent, in general, with expert opinion shows that we do know something about birds and grazing and we could learn a lot faster if we used this approach more in ecology, where data are scarce. Copyright (c) 2005 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Experimental evidence for multivariate stabilizing sexual selection

Stabilizing selection is a fundamental concept in evolutionary biology. In the presence of a single intermediate optimum phenotype (fitness peak) on the fitness surface, stabilizing selection should cause the population to evolve toward such a peak. This prediction has seldom been tested, particularly for suites of correlated traits. The lack of tests for an evolutionary match between population means and adaptive peaks may be due, at least in part, to problems associated with empirically detecting multivariate stabilizing selection and with testing whether population means are at the peak of multivariate fitness surfaces. Here we show how canonical analysis of the fitness surface, combined with the estimation of confidence regions for stationary points on quadratic response surfaces, may be used to define multivariate stabilizing selection on a suite of traits and to establish whether natural populations reside on the multivariate peak. We manufactured artificial advertisement calls of the male cricket Teleogryllus commodus and played them back to females in laboratory phonotaxis trials to estimate the linear and nonlinear sexual selection that female phonotactic choice imposes on male call structure. Significant nonlinear selection on the major axes of the fitness surface was convex in nature and displayed an intermediate optimum, indicating multivariate stabilizing selection. The mean phenotypes of four independent samples of males, from the same population as the females used in phonotaxis trials, were within the 95% confidence region for the fitness peak. These experiments indicate that stabilizing sexual selection may play an important role in the evolution of male call properties in natural populations of T. commodus.

Is the method of signal analysis and test selection important for measuring standing balance in subjects with persistent whiplash?

Dizziness and or unsteadiness, associated with episodes of loss of balance, are frequent complaints in those suffering from persistent problems following a whiplash injury. Research has been inconclusive with respect to possible aetiology, discriminative tests and analyses used. The aim of this pilot research was to identify the test conditions and the most appropriate method for the analysis of sway that may differentiate subjects with persistent whiplash associated disorders (WAD) from healthy controls. The six conditions of the Clinical Test for Sensory Interaction in Balance was performed in both comfortable and tandem stance in 20 subjects with persistent WAD compared to 20 control subjects. The analyses were carried out using a traditional method of measurement, total sway distance, to results obtained from the use of wavelet analysis. Subjects with WAD were significantly less able to complete the tandem stance tests on a firm surface than controls. In comfortable stance, using wavelet analysis, significant differences between subjects with WAD and the control group were evident in total energy of the trace for all test conditions apart from eyes open on the firm surface. In contrast, the results of the analysis using total sway distance revealed no significant differences between groups across all six conditions. Wavelet analysis may be more appropriate for detecting disturbances in balance in whiplash subjects because the technique allows separation of the noise from the underlying systematic effect of sway. These findings will be used to direct future studies on the aeitiology of balance disturbances in WAD. (c) 2004 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.