Evolution of stress deficit and changing rates of seismicity in cellular automaton models of earthquake faults

We investigate the internal dynamics of two cellular automaton models with heterogeneous strength fields and differing nearest neighbour laws. One model is a crack-like automaton, transferring ail stress from a rupture zone to the surroundings. The other automaton is a partial stress drop automaton, transferring only a fraction of the stress within a rupture zone to the surroundings. To study evolution of stress, the mean spectral density. f(k(r)) of a stress deficit held is: examined prior to, and immediately following ruptures in both models. Both models display a power-law relationship between f(k(r)) and spatial wavenumber (k(r)) of the form f(k(r)) similar tok(r)(-beta). In the crack model, the evolution of stress deficit is consistent with cyclic approach to, and retreat from a critical state in which large events occur. The approach to criticality is driven by tectonic loading. Short-range stress transfer in the model does not affect the approach to criticality of broad regions in the model. The evolution of stress deficit in the partial stress drop model is consistent with small fluctuations about a mean state of high stress, behaviour indicative of a self-organised critical system. Despite statistics similar to natural earthquakes these simplified models lack a physical basis. physically motivated models of earthquakes also display dynamical complexity similar to that of a critical point system. Studies of dynamical complexity in physical models of earthquakes may lead to advancement towards a physical theory for earthquakes.

Stress correlation function evolution in lattice solid elasto-dynamic models of shear and fracture zones and earthquake prediction

It has been argued that power-law time-to-failure fits for cumulative Benioff strain and an evolution in size-frequency statistics in the lead-up to large earthquakes are evidence that the crust behaves as a Critical Point (CP) system. If so, intermediate-term earthquake prediction is possible. However, this hypothesis has not been proven. If the crust does behave as a CP system, stress correlation lengths should grow in the lead-up to large events through the action of small to moderate ruptures and drop sharply once a large event occurs. However this evolution in stress correlation lengths cannot be observed directly. Here we show, using the lattice solid model to describe discontinuous elasto-dynamic systems subjected to shear and compression, that it is for possible correlation lengths to exhibit CP-type evolution. In the case of a granular system subjected to shear, this evolution occurs in the lead-up to the largest event and is accompanied by an increasing rate of moderate-sized events and power-law acceleration of Benioff strain release. In the case of an intact sample system subjected to compression, the evolution occurs only after a mature fracture system has developed. The results support the existence of a physical mechanism for intermediate-term earthquake forecasting and suggest this mechanism is fault-system dependent. This offers an explanation of why accelerating Benioff strain release is not observed prior to all large earthquakes. The results prove the existence of an underlying evolution in discontinuous elasto-dynamic, systems which is capable of providing a basis for forecasting catastrophic failure and earthquakes.

Evolution of three-dimensional folds for a non-Newtonian plate in a viscous medium

We derive analytical solutions for the three-dimensional time-dependent buckling of a non-Newtonian viscous plate in a less viscous medium. For the plate we assume a power-law rheology. The principal, axes of the stretching D-ij in the homogeneously deformed ground state are parallel and orthogonal to the bounding surfaces of the plate in the flat state. In the model formulation the action of the less viscous medium is replaced by equivalent reaction forces. The reaction forces are assumed to be parallel to the normal vector of the deformed plate surfaces. As a consequence, the buckling process is driven by the differences between the in-plane stresses and out of plane stress, and not by the in-plane stresses alone as assumed in previous models. The governing differential equation is essentially an orthotropic plate equation for rate dependent material, under biaxial pre-stress, supported by a viscous medium. The differential problem is solved by means of Fourier transformation and largest growth coefficients and corresponding wavenumbers are evaluated. We discuss in detail fold evolutions for isotropic in-plane stretching (D-11 = D-22), uniaxial plane straining (D-22 = 0) and in-plane flattening (D-11 = -2D(22)). Three-dimensional plots illustrate the stages of fold evolution for random initial perturbations or initial embryonic folds with axes non-parallel to the maximum compression axis. For all situations, one dominant set of folds develops normal to D-11, although the dominant wavelength differs from the Biot dominant wavelength except when the plate has a purely Newtonian viscosity. However, in the direction parallel to D-22, there exist infinitely many modes in the vicinity of the dominant wavelength which grow only marginally slower than the one corresponding to the dominant wavelength. This means that, except for very special initial conditions, the appearance of a three-dimensional fold will always be governed by at least two wavelengths. The wavelength in the direction parallel to D-11 is the dominant wavelength, and the wavelength(s) in the direction parallel to D-22 is determined essentially by the statistics of the initial state. A comparable sensitivity to the initial geometry does not exist in the classic two-dimensional folding models. In conformity with tradition we have applied Kirchhoff's hypothesis to constrain the cross-sectional rotations of the plate. We investigate the validity of this hypothesis within the framework of Reissner's plate theory. We also include a discussion of the effects of adding elasticity into the constitutive relations and show that there exist critical ratios of the relaxation times of the plate and the embedding medium for which two dominant wavelengths develop, one at ca. 2.5 of the classical Biot dominant wavelength and the other at ca. 0.45 of this wavelength. We propose that herein lies the origin of parasitic folds well known in natural examples.

Modulation of the adrenocortical stress response in marine turtles (Cheloniidae): evidence for a hormonal tactic maximizing maternal reproductive investment

The relationships between reproductive condition, level of reproductive investment and adrenocortical modulation to capture stress in marine turtles form the basis of this study. When subjected to either capture or ecological stressors, nesting marine turtles have demonstrated adrenocortical responses that are both small in magnitude, and slow in responsiveness. These observations were further investigated to determine whether this minimal stress response was a physiological strategy to maximize reproductive investment in adult green Chelonia mydas and hawksbill Eretmochelys imbricata turtles. Female green and hawksbill turtles exhibited a decrease in adrenocortical responsiveness with progressive reproductive condition. Breeding turtles exhibited most suppression of their adrenocortical response to capture compared to both non-breeding and pre-breeding female counterparts. Nesting green turtles maintained a suppressed adrenocortical response to capture throughout the nesting season despite decreased reproductive investment. In contrast, male green and hawksbill turtles were less able to modulate their corticosterone (B) response to acute capture stress. During breeding, male turtles possessed significantly greater adrenocortical responses to capture than females. These results could indicate that the large reproductive investment necessary for female marine turtle reproduction might underlie the marked decrease in adrenocortical responsiveness. This hormonal mechanism could function as one strategy by which female marine turtles maximize their current reproductive event, even though under certain situations this mechanism could entail costs to female survival.

Micro-mechanical approximation to the stress field around an inclined fiber of FRCC

Matrix spalling or crushing is one of the important mechanisms of fiber-matrix interaction of fiber reinforced cementitious composites (FRCC). The fiber pullout mechanisms have been extensively studied for an aligned fiber but matrix failure is rarely investigated since it is thought not to be a major affect. However, for an inclined fiber, the matrix failure should not be neglected. Due to the complex process of matrix spalling, experimental investigation and analytical study of this mechanism are rarely found in literature. In this paper, it is assumed that the load transfer is concentrated within the short length of the inclined fiber from the exit point towards anchored end and follows the exponential law. The Mindlin formulation is employed to calculate the 3D stress field. The simulation gives much information about this field. The 3D approximation of the stress state around an inclined fiber helps to qualitatively understand the mechanism of matrix failure. Finally, a spalling criterion is proposed by which matrix spalling occurs only when the stress in a certain volume, rather than the stress at a small point, exceeds the material strength. This implies some local stress redistribution after first yield. The stress redistribution results in more energy input and higher load bearing capacity of the matrix. In accordance with this hypothesis, the evolution of matrix spalling is demonstrated. The accurate prediction of matrix spalling needs the careful determination of the parameters in this model. This is the work of further study. (C) 2002 Elsevier Science Ltd. All rights reserved.

Long-range automaton models of earthquakes: Power-law accelerations, correlation evolution, and mode-switching

We introduce a conceptual model for the in-plane physics of an earthquake fault. The model employs cellular automaton techniques to simulate tectonic loading, earthquake rupture, and strain redistribution. The impact of a hypothetical crustal elastodynamic Green's function is approximated by a long-range strain redistribution law with a r(-p) dependance. We investigate the influence of the effective elastodynamic interaction range upon the dynamical behaviour of the model by conducting experiments with different values of the exponent (p). The results indicate that this model has two distinct, stable modes of behaviour. The first mode produces a characteristic earthquake distribution with moderate to large events preceeded by an interval of time in which the rate of energy release accelerates. A correlation function analysis reveals that accelerating sequences are associated with a systematic, global evolution of strain energy correlations within the system. The second stable mode produces Gutenberg-Richter statistics, with near-linear energy release and no significant global correlation evolution. A model with effectively short-range interactions preferentially displays Gutenberg-Richter behaviour. However, models with long-range interactions appear to switch between the characteristic and GR modes. As the range of elastodynamic interactions is increased, characteristic behaviour begins to dominate GR behaviour. These models demonstrate that evolution of strain energy correlations may occur within systems with a fixed elastodynamic interaction range. Supposing that similar mode-switching dynamical behaviour occurs within earthquake faults then intermediate-term forecasting of large earthquakes may be feasible for some earthquakes but not for others, in alignment with certain empirical seismological observations. Further numerical investigation of dynamical models of this type may lead to advances in earthquake forecasting research and theoretical seismology.

Evolution of additive and nonadditive genetic variance in development time along a cline in Drosophila serrata

Latitudinal clines provide natural systems that may allow the effect of natural selection on the genetic variance to be determined. Ten clinal populations of Drosophila serrata collected from the eastern coast of Australia were used to examine clinal patterns in the trait mean and genetic variance of the life-history trait egg-to-adult development time. Development time significantly lengthened from tropical areas to temperate areas. The additive genetic variance for development time in each population was not associated with latitude but was associated with the population mean development time. Additive genetic variance tended to be larger in populations with more extreme development times and appeared to be consistent with allele frequency change. In contrast, the nonadditive genetic variance was not associated with the population mean but was associated with latitude. Levels of nonadditive genetic variance were greatest in the region of the cline where the gradient in the change in mean was greatest, consistent with Barton's (1999) conjecture that the generation of linkage disequilibrium may become an important component of the genetic variance in systems with a spatially varying optimum.

Pendant drop formation of shear-thinning and yield stress fluids

A volume-of-fluid numerical method is used to predict the dynamics of shear-thinning liquid drop formation in air from a circular orifice. The validity of the numerical calculation is confirmed for a Newtonian liquid by comparison with experimental measurements. For particular values of Weber number and Froude number, predictions show a more rapid pinch-off, and a reduced number of secondary droplets, with increasing shear-thinning. Also a minimum in the limiting drop length occurs for the smallest Weber number as the zero-shear viscosity is varied. At the highest viscosity, the drop length is reduced due to shear-thinning, whereas at lower viscosities there is little effect of shear-thinning. The evolution of predicted drop shape, drop thickness and length, and the configuration at pinch-off are discussed for shear-thinning drops. The evolution of a drop of Bingham yield stress liquid is also considered as a limiting case. In contrast to the shear-thinning cases, it exhibits a plug flow prior to necking, an almost step-change approach to pinch-off of a torpedo shaped drop following the onset of necking, and a much smaller neck length; no secondary drops are formed. The results demonstrate the potential of the numerical model as a design tool in tailoring the fluid rheology for controlling drop formation behaviour. (c) 2006 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Bed shear stress measurements in dam break and swash flows

A novel shear plate was used to make direct bed shear stress measurements in laboratory dam break and swash flows on smooth, fixed, impermeable beds. The pressure gradient due to the slope of the fluid free-surface across the plate was measured using pressure transducers. Surface elevation was measured at five locations using acoustic displacement sensors. Flow velocity was measured using an Acoustic-Doppler Velocimeter and calculated using the ANUGA inundation model. The measured bed shear stress at the dam break fluid tip for an initially dry, horizontal bed was close to twice that estimated using steady flow theory. The temporal variation of swash bed shear stress showed a large peak in landward directed stress at the uprush tip, followed by a rapid decay throughout the uprush flow interior. The peak seaward directed stress during the backwash phase was less than half that measured in the uprush. Close to the still water line, in the region of bore collapse and at the time of initial uprush, favourable pressure gradients were measured. In the lower swash region predominately weak adverse pressure gradients were measured.