Recent developments in population projection methodology: A review

In this paper we survey five streams of research that have made important contributions to population projection methodology over the last decade. These are: (i) the evaluation of population forecasts; (ii) probabilistic methods; (iii) experiments in the projection of migration; (iv) projecting dimensions additional to age, sex and region; and (v) the use of scenarios for 'what if?' analyses and understanding population dynamics. Key developments in these areas are discussed, and a number of opportunities for further research are identified. Copyright (c) 2005 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

The identification and characterisation of alleles of sucrose phosphate synthase gene family III in sugarcane

Little is known about the extent of allelic diversity of genes in the complex polyploid, sugarcane. Using sucrose phosphate synthase (SPS) Gene (SPS) Family III as an example, we have amplified and sequenced a 400 nt region from this gene from two sugarcane lines that are parents of a mapping population. Ten single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) were identified within the 400 nt region of which seven were present in both lines. In the elite commercial cultivar Q165(A), 10 sequence haplotypes were identified, with four haplotypes recovered at 9% or greater frequency. Based on SNP presence, two clusters of haplotypes were observed. In IJ76-514, a Saccharum officinarum accession, 8 haplotypes were identified with 4 haplotypes recovered at 13% or greater frequency. Again, two clusters of haplotypes were observed. The results suggest that there may be two SPS Gene Family III genes per genome in sugarcane, each with different numbers of different alleles. This suggestion is supported by sequencing results in an elite parental sorghum line, 403463-2-1, in which 4 haplotypes, corresponding to two broad types, were also identified. Primers were designed to the sugarcane SNPs and screened over bulked DNA from high and low Sucrose-containing progeny from a cross between Q165(A) and IJ76-514. The SNP frequency did not vary in the two bulked DNA samples, suggesting that these SNPs from this SPS gene family are not associated with variation in sucrose content. Using an ecotilling approach, two of the SPS Gene Family III haplotypes were mapped to two different linkage groups in homology group 1 in Q165(A). Both haplotypes mapped near QTLs for increased sucrose content but were not themselves associated with any sugar-related trait.

The Las Campanas/Anglo-Australian Telescope Rich Cluster Survey - III. Spectroscopic studies of X-ray bright galaxy clusters at z similar to 0.1

We present the analysis of the spectroscopic and photometric catalogues of 11 X-ray luminous clusters at 0.07 < z < 0.16 from the Las Campanas/Anglo-Australian Telescope Rich Cluster Survey. Our spectroscopic data set consists of over 1600 galaxy cluster members, of which two-thirds are outside r(200). These spectra allow us to assign cluster membership using a detailed mass model and expand on our previous work on the cluster colour-magnitude relation ( CMR) where membership was inferred statistically. We confirm that the modal colours of galaxies on the CMR become progressively bluer with increasing radius d( B - R)/dr(p) = - 0.011 +/- 0.003 and with decreasing local galaxy density d( B - R)/dlog ( Sigma)= - 0.062 +/- 0.009. Interpreted as an age effect, we hypothesize that these trends in galaxy colour should be reflected in mean H delta equivalent width. We confirm that passive galaxies in the cluster increase in Hd line strength as dH delta/dr(p) = 0.35 +/- 0.06. Therefore, those galaxies in the cluster outskirts may have younger luminosity-weighted stellar populations; up to 3 Gyr younger than those in the cluster centre assuming d( B - R)/dt = 0.03 mag per Gyr. A variation of star formation rate, as measured by [ O II]lambda 3727 angstrom, with increasing local density of the environment is discernible and is shown to be in broad agreement with previous studies from the 2dF Galaxy Redshift Survey and the Sloan Digital Sky Survey. We divide our spectra into a variety of types based upon the MORPHs classification scheme. We find that clusters at z similar to 0.1 are less active than their higher-redshift analogues: about 60 per cent of the cluster galaxy population is non-star forming, with a further 20 per cent in the post-starburst class and 20 per cent in the currently active class, demonstrating that evolution is visible within the past 2 - 3 Gyr. We also investigate unusual populations of blue and very red non-star forming galaxies and we suggest that the former are likely to be the progenitors of galaxies which will lie on the CMR, while the colours of the latter possibly reflect dust reddening. We show that the cluster galaxies at large radii consist of both backsplash ones and those that are infalling to the cluster for the first time. We make a comparison to the field population at z similar to 0.1 and examine the broad differences between the two populations. Individually, the clusters show significant variation in their galaxy populations which we suggest reflects their recent infall histories.