Cardiovascular risk estimation by professionally active cardiovascular nurses: Results from the Basel 2005 Nurses Cohort

Background Nurses play a key role in the prevention of cardiovascular disease (CVD) and one would, therefore, expect them to have a heightened awareness of the need for systematic screening and their own CVD risk profile. The aim of this study was to examine personal awareness of CVD risk among a cohort of cardiovascular nurses attending a European conference. Methods Of the 340 delegates attending the 5th annual Spring Meeting on Cardiovascular Nursing (Basel, Switzerland, 2005), 287 (83%) completed a self-report questionnaire to assess their own risk factors for CVD. Delegates were also asked to give an estimation of their absolute total risk of experiencing a fatal CVD event in the next 10 years. Level of agreement between self-reported CVD risk estimation and their actual risk according to the SCORE risk assessment system was compared by calculating weighted Kappa (κw). Results Overall, 109 responders (38%) self-reported having either pre-existing CVD (only 2%), one or more markedly raised CVD risk factors, a high total risk of fatal CVD (≥ 5% in 10 years) or a strong family history of CVD. About half of this cohort (53%) did not know their own total cholesterol level. Less than half (45%) reported having a 10-year risk of fatal CVD of < 1%, while 13% reported having a risk ≥ 5%. Based on the SCORE risk function, the estimated 10-year risk of a fatal CVD event was < 1% for 96% of responders: only 2% had a ≥ 5% risk of such an event. Overall, less than half (46%) of this cohort's self-reported CVD risk corresponded with that calculated using the SCORE risk function (κw = 0.27). Conclusion Most cardiovascular nurses attending a European conference in 2005 poorly understood their own CVD risk profile, and the agreement between their self-reported 10-year risk of a fatal CVD and their CVD risk using SCORE was only fair. Given the specialist nature of this conference, our findings clearly demonstrate a need to improve overall nursing awareness of the role and importance of systematic CVD risk assessment.

Estimating HIV incidence rates from age prevalence data in epidemic situations

We present a method of estimating HIV incidence rates in epidemic situations from data on age-specific prevalence and changes in the overall prevalence over time. The method is applied to women attending antenatal clinics in Hlabisa, a rural district of KwaZulu/Natal, South Africa, where transmission of HIV is overwhelmingly through heterosexual contact. A model which gives age-specific prevalence rates in the presence of a progressing epidemic is fitted to prevalence data for 1998 using maximum likelihood methods and used to derive the age-specific incidence. Error estimates are obtained using a Monte Carlo procedure. Although the method is quite general some simplifying assumptions are made concerning the form of the risk function and sensitivity analyses are performed to explore the importance of these assumptions. The analysis shows that in 1998 the annual incidence of infection per susceptible woman increased from 5.4 per cent (3.3-8.5 per cent; here and elsewhere ranges give 95 per cent confidence limits) at age 15 years to 24.5 per cent (20.6-29.1 per cent) at age 22 years and declined to 1.3 per cent (0.5-2.9 per cent) at age 50 years; standardized to a uniform age distribution, the overall incidence per susceptible woman aged 15 to 59 was 11.4 per cent (10.0-13.1 per cent); per women in the population it was 8.4 per cent (7.3-9.5 per cent). Standardized to the age distribution of the female population the average incidence per woman was 9.6 per cent (8.4-11.0 per cent); standardized to the age distribution of women attending antenatal clinics, it was 11.3 per cent (9.8-13.3 per cent). The estimated incidence depends on the values used for the epidemic growth rate and the AIDS related mortality. To ensure that, for this population, errors in these two parameters change the age specific estimates of the annual incidence by less than the standard deviation of the estimates of the age specific incidence, the AIDS related mortality should be known to within +/-50 per cent and the epidemic growth rate to within +/-25 per cent, both of which conditions are met. In the absence of cohort studies to measure the incidence of HIV infection directly, useful estimates of the age-specific incidence can be obtained from cross-sectional, age-specific prevalence data and repeat cross-sectional data on the overall prevalence of HIV infection. Several assumptions were made because of the lack of data but sensitivity analyses show that they are unlikely to affect the overall estimates significantly. These estimates are important in assessing the magnitude of the public health problem, for designing vaccine trials and for evaluating the impact of interventions. Copyright (C) 2001 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Hypertension, dyslipidemia, body mass index, Diabetes and smoking status in aboriginal australians in a remote community

Objectives: Study objectives were: 1) to describe the differences in the prevalence of CHID risk factors between Aboriginal people in a remote community and the general Australian population; and 2) to compare the predicted risks of CHD events between Aboriginal and non-Aboriginal Australians. Design: A cross-sectional study. Participants: 681 Aboriginal adults aged 25 to 74 years. Results: Aboriginal young adults had substantially higher prevalence of diabetes compared to non-Aboriginal Australians. The prevalence ratios for diabetes were 12.5, 5.6, 3.2, 1.3, and 0.73 for 25-, 35-, 45-, 55-, and 65- to 74-year-old females, respectively, The corresponding values for males were 12.1, 2.7, 2.9, 0.69, and 0.42. Young females had a higher prevalence of obesity, overweight, and abnormal waist circumference, while males and females 45 years and older tended to have a lower prevalence of overweight and ab. normal waist circumference. Compared to the general population, Aboriginal adults had a lower prevalence of abnormal total cholesterol but a higher prevalence of abnormal HDL, triglycerides, hypertension, and smoking. The risk ratios of abnormal total cholesterol for females ages 2534, 35-44, 45-54, 55-64, and 65-75 years were 0.38, 0.53, 0.48, 0.48, and 0.41, respectively. Conclusions: Aboriginal people in the remote community experienced different levels of CHD risk predictors from the general Australian population. They had a lower prevalence of abnormal total cholesterol and a higher prevalence of abnormal HDL, smoking, diabetes, and hypertension.

A stochastic frontier production function with flexible risk properties

This paper considers a stochastic frontier production function which has additive, heteroscedastic error structure. The model allows for negative or positive marginal production risks of inputs, as originally proposed by Just and Pope (1978). The technical efficiencies of individual firms in the sample are a function of the levels of the input variables in the stochastic frontier, in addition to the technical inefficiency effects. These are two features of the model which are not exhibited by the commonly used stochastic frontiers with multiplicative error structures, An empirical application is presented using cross-sectional data on Ethiopian peasant farmers. The null hypothesis of no technical inefficiencies of production among these farmers is accepted. Further, the flexible risk models do not fit the data on peasant farmers as well as the traditional stochastic frontier model with multiplicative error structure.

Renal function and cardiovascular risk markers in a remote Australian Aboriginal community

Background. Australian Aborigines living in remote areas have exceedingly high rates of renal failure together with increased cardiovascular morbidity and mortality. To examine the basis of this association, we studied markers of renal function and cardiovascular (CV) risk in a coastal Aboriginal community in a remote area of the Northern Territory of Australia. End-stage renal disease (ESRD) incidence rates in that community are 15 times the national non-Aboriginal rate and CV mortality rates in the region are increased 5-fold. Methods. A cross-sectional community survey was conducted. Markers of early renal disease examined included urine albumin/creatinine ratio (ACR), serum creatinine concentration and calculated glomerular filtration rate (GFR). CV risk markers included blood pressure as well as measures of glycaemia, diabetes and serum lipids. Results. The study group included 237 people, 58% of the adult population of the community. The crude prevalence of microalbuminuria (urine ACR: 3.4-33.9 g/mol, 30-299 mg/g) was 31% and of overt albuminuria (urine ACR: greater than or equal to34 g/mol, greater than or equal to300 mg/g), 13%. The prevalence of overt albuminuria increased with age, but the prevalence of microalbuminuria was greatest in the 45-54 year age group. Microalbuminuria was associated with increasing body mass index, whereas overt albuminuria was associated with increasing glycated haemoglobin (HbA1c) and systolic blood pressure and a history of diabetes. The prevalence of elevated serum creatinine concentration (greater than or equal to120 mumol/l) was 10%. GFR (calculated using the MDRD equation) was <60 ml/min/1.73m(2) in 12% and 60-79 ml/min/1.73 m(2) in a further 36% of the study population. Although many people with albuminuria had well preserved GFRs, mean GFR was lower in people with higher levels of albuminuria. Conclusions. The high prevalence of markers of renal disease in this community was consistent with their high rates of ESRD. The distribution of microalbuminuria suggested a 'cohort effect', representing a group who will progress to overt albuminuria. The powerful association of renal disease markers with CV risk factors confirms a strong link between renal and CV disease in the early, asymptomatic stages of each. Thus, pathologic albuminuria, in part, might be a manifestation of the metabolic/haemodynamic syndrome and both conditions might arise out of a common menu of risk factors. Hence, a single agenda of primary and secondary intervention may benefit both.

Noninvasive tests for arterial structure, function, and compliance: Do they identify risk or diagnose disease?

Background: Brachial artery reactivity (BAR), carotid intima-media thickness (IMT), and applanation tonometry for evaluation of total arterial compliance may provide information about preclinical vascular disease. We sought to determine whether these tests could be used to identify patients with coronary artery disease (CAD) without being influenced by their ability to identify those at risk ford CAD developing. Methods: We studied 100 patients and compared 3 groups: 35 patients with known CAD; 34 patients with symptoms and risk factors but no CAD identified by stress echocardiography (risk group); and 31 control subjects. BAR and IMT were measured using standard methods, and total arterial compliance was calculated by the pulse-pressure method from simultaneous radial applanation tonometry and pulsed wave Doppler of the left ventricular outflow. Ischemia was identified as a new or worsening wall-motion abnormality induced by stress. Results: In a comparison between the control subjects and patients either at risk for developing CAD or with CAD, the predictors of risk for CAD were: age (P = .01); smoking history (P = .002); hypercholesterolemia (P = .002); and hypertension (P = .004) (model R = 0.82; P = .0001). The independent predictors of CAD were: IMT (P = .001); BAR (P = .04); sex (P = .005); and hypertension (P = .005) (model R = 0.80; P = .0001). Conclusion: IMT, BAR, and traditional cardiovascular risk factors appear to identify patients at risk for CAD developing. However, only IMT was significantly different between patients at risk for developing CAD and those with overt CAD.

Socioeconomic position, cognitive function, and clustering of cardiovascular risk factors in adolescence: Findings from the Mater University Study of Pregnancy and its outcomes

Objectives: The objectives of this study were to examine the extent of clustering of smoking, high levels of television watching, overweight, and high blood pressure among adolescents and whether this clustering varies by socioeconomic position and Cognitive function. Methods: This study was a cross-sectional analysis of 3613 (1742 females) participants of an Australian birth cohort who were examined at age 14. Results: Three hundred fifty-three (9.8%) of the participants had co-occurrence of three or four risk factors. Risk factors clustered in these adolescents with a greater number of participants than would be predicted by assumptions of independence having no risk factors and three or four risk factors. The extent of clustering tended to be greater in those from lower-income families and among those with lower cognitive function. The age-adjusted ratio of observed to expected cooccurrence of three or four risk factors was 2.70 (95% confidence interval [Cl], 1.80-4.06) among those from low-income families and 1.70 (95% Cl, 1.34-2.16) among those from more affluent families. The ratio among those with low Raven's scores (nonverbal reasoning) was 2.36 (95% Cl, 1.69-3.30) and among those with higher scores was 1.51 (95% Cl, 1.19-1.92); similar results for the WRAT 3 score (reading ability) were 2.69 (95% Cl, 1.85-3.94) and 1.68 (95% Cl, 1.34-2.11). Clustering did not differ by sex. Conclusion: Among adolescents, coronary heart disease risk factors cluster, and there is some evidence that this clustering is greater among those from families with low income and those who have lower cognitive function.

Risk premiums and benefit measures for generalized-expected-utility theories

Standard tools for the analysis of economic problems involving uncertainty, including risk premiums, certainty equivalents and the notions of absolute and relative risk aversion, are developed without making specific assumptions on functional form beyond the basic requirements of monotonicity, transitivity, continuity, and the presumption that individuals prefer certainty to risk. Individuals are not required to display probabilistic sophistication. The approach relies on the distance and benefit functions to characterize preferences relative to a given state-contingent vector of outcomes. The distance and benefit functions are used to derive absolute and relative risk premiums and to characterize preferences exhibiting constant absolute risk aversion (CARA) and constant relative risk aversion (CRRA). A generalization of the notion of Schur-concavity is presented. If preferences are generalized Schur concave, the absolute and relative risk premiums are generalized Schur convex, and the certainty equivalents are generalized Schur concave.