Re-admission to intensive care: Identification of risk factors

Background and Purpose. The re-admission of patients to intensive care is associated with increased morbidity, mortality, loss of morale for patients and family, and increased health costs. The aim of the present study was to identify factors which place patients at a higher risk of re-admission to intensive care. Method. A prospective study of patients who were re-admitted to a 22-bed tertiary level intensive care facility within a 12-month period. Data were kept on every patient re-admitted to intensive care, including standard demographic data, initial admission diagnosis, co-morbidities, re-admission diagnosis, mobility on discharge, secretions, airway, chest X-ray, PaCO2, PaO2, PaO2/FiO2and time of discharge. Subjects included 74 patients who had been re-admitted to intensive care in a 12-month period and a comparison group of patients who were not re-admitted to intensive care. A cross-tabs procedure was initially used to estimate maximum likelihood. Significant factors with an value of 65 years (p

Refining the risk-benefit equation for thrombolysis: How to identity the low risk patient before administering thrombolytic therapy

In view of the relative risk of intracranial haemorrhage and major bleeding with thrombolytic therapy, it is important ro identify as early as possible the low risk patient who may not have a net clinical benefit from thrombolysis in the setting of acute myocardial infarction. An analysis of 5434 hospital-treated patients with myocardial infarction in the Perth MONICA study showed that age below 60 and absence of previous infarction or diabetes, shock, pulmonary oedema, cardiac arrest and Q-wave or left bundle branch block on the initial ECG identified a large group of patients with a 28 day mortality of only 1%, and one year mortality of only 2%. Identification of baseline risk in this way helps refine the risk-benefit equation for thrombolytic therapy, and may help avoid unnecessary use of thrombolysis in those unlikely to benefit.

A model for predicting the future incidence of coronary heart disease within percentiles of coronary heart disease risk

Background We present a method (The CHD Prevention Model) for modelling the incidence of fatal and nonfatal coronary heart disease (CHD) within various CHD risk percentiles of an adult population. The model provides a relatively simple tool for lifetime risk prediction for subgroups within a population. It allows an estimation of the absolute primary CHD risk in different populations and will help identify subgroups of the adult population where primary CHD prevention is most appropriate and cost-effective. Methods The CHD risk distribution within the Australian population was modelled, based on the prevalence of CHD risk, individual estimates of integrated CHD risk, and current CHD mortality rates. Predicted incidence of first fatal and nonfatal myocardial infarction within CHD risk strata of the Australian population was determined. Results Approximately 25% of CHD deaths were predicted to occur amongst those in the top 10 percentiles of integrated CHD risk, regardless of age group or gender. It was found that while all causes survival did not differ markedly between percentiles of CHD risk before the ages of around 50-60, event-free survival began visibly to differ about 5 years earlier. Conclusions The CHD Prevention Model provides a means of predicting future CHD incidence amongst various strata of integrated CHD risk within an adult population. It has significant application both in individual risk counselling and in the identification of subgroups of the population where drug therapy to reduce CHD risk is most cost-effective. J Cardiovasc Risk 8:31-37 (C) 2001 Lippincott Williams & Wilkins.

Cigarette smoking and risk of epithelial ovarian cancer (Australia)

Objectives: We studied the association between cigarette smoking and ovarian cancer in a population-based case-control study. Methods: A total of 794 women with histologically confirmed epithelial ovarian cancer who were aged 18-79 years and resident in one of three Australian states were interviewed, together with 855 controls aged 18-79 years selected at random from the electoral roll from the same states. Information was obtained about cigarette smoking and other factors including age, parity, oral contraceptive use, and reproductive factors. We estimated the relative risk of ovarian cancer associated with cigarette smoking, accounting for histologic type, using multivariable logistic regression to adjust for confounding factors. Results: Women who had ever smoked cigarettes were more likely to develop ovarian cancer than women who had never smoked (adjusted odds ratio (OR) = 1.5; 95% confidence interval (CI) = 1.2-1.9). Risk was greater for ovarian cancers of borderline malignancy (OR = 2.4; 95% CI = 1.4-4.1) than for invasive tumors (OR = 1.7; 95% CI = 1.2-2.4) and the histologic subtype most strongly associated overall was the mucinous subtype among both current smokers (OR = 3.2; 95% CI = 1.8-5.7) and past smokers (OR = 2.3; 95% CI = 1.3-3.9). Conclusions: These data extend recent findings and suggest that cigarette smoking is a risk factor for ovarian cancer, especially mucinous and borderline mucinous types. From a public health viewpoint, this is one of the few reports of a potentially avoidable risk factor for ovarian cancer.

Long-term risk stratification for survivors of acute coronary syndromes - Results from the long-term intervention with pravastatin in ischemic disease (LIPID) study

OBJECTIVES We developed a prognostic strategy for quantifying the long-term risk of coronary heart disease (CHD) events in survivors of acute coronary syndromes (ACS). BACKGROUND Strategies for quantifying long-term risk of CHD events have generally been confined to primary prevention settings. The Long-term Intervention with Pravastatin in Ischemic Disease (LIPID) study, which demonstrated that pravastatin reduces CHD events in ACS survivors with a broad range of cholesterol levels, enabled assessment of long-term prognosis in a secondary prevention setting. METHODS Based on outcomes in 8,557 patients in the LIPID study, a multivariate risk factor model was developed for prediction of CHD death or nonfatal myocardial infarction. Prognostic indexes were developed based on the model, and low-, medium-, high- and very high-risk groups were defined by categorizing the prognostic indexes. RESULTS In addition to pravastatin treatment, the independently significant risk factors included: total and high density lipoprotein cholesterol, age, gender, smoking status, qualifying ACS, prior coronary revascularization, diabetes mellitus, hypertension and prior stroke. Pravastatin reduced coronary event rates in each risk level, and the relative risk reduction did not vary significantly between risk levels. The predicted five-year coronary event rates ranged from 5% to 19% for those assigned pravastatin and from 6.4% to 23.6% fur those assigned placebo. CONCLUSIONS Long-term prognosis of ACS survivors varied substantially according to conventional risk factor profile. Pravastatin reduced coronary risk within all risk levels; however, absolute risk remained high in treated patients with unfavorable profiles. Our risk stratification strategy enables identification of ACS survivors who remain at very high risk despite statin therapy. CT Am Coil Cardiol 2001;38:56-63) (C) 2001 by the American College of Cardiology.

Myocardial infarction and type II diabetes - preferential treatment for high risk patients?

Objectives: To compare variability of blood glucose concentration in patients with type II diabetes with (cases) and without (controls) myocardial infarction. A secondary objective was identification of predictive factors for higher blood glucose on discharge from hospital. Design: A retrospective matched case-control study. Participants: Medical notes of 101 type II diabetic patients admitted with a myocardial infarction (MI) and 101 type II diabetic patients (controls) matched on gender and age with no MI were reviewed. Blood glucose concentrations over two consecutive 48-h periods were collected. Demographic data and therapy on admission/discharge were also collected. Results: Patient characteristics were comparable on recruitment excluding family history of cardiovascular disease (P =0.003), dyslipidaemia (P =0.004) and previous history of MI (P =0.007). Variability of blood glucose in cases was greater over the first 48 h compared with the second 48 h (P =0.03), and greater when compared with controls over the first 48 h (P =0.01). Cases with blood glucose on discharge >8.2 mmol / L (n =45) were less likely to have a history of previous MI (P =0.04), ischaemic heart disease (P =0.03) or hypertension (P =0.02). Conclusions: Type II diabetics with an MI have higher and more variable blood glucose concentrations during the first 48 h of admission. Only cardiovascular 'high risk' patients had target blood glucose set on discharge. The desirability of all MI patients with diabetes, having standardized-glucose infusions to reduce variability of blood glucose, should be evaluated in a randomized controlled trial.

Risk factors for non-haemorrhagic stroke in patients with coronary heart disease and the effect of lipid-modifying therapy with pravastatin

Objective To determine the relative importance of recognised risk factors for non-haemorrhagic stroke, including serum cholesterol and the effect of cholesterol-lowering therapy, on the occurrence of non-haemorrhagic stroke in patients enrolled in the LIPID (Long-term Intervention with Pravastatin in Ischaemic Disease) study. Design The LIPID study was a placebo-controlled, double-blind trial of the efficacy on coronary heart disease mortality of pravastatin therapy over 6 years in 9014 patients with previous acute coronary syndromes and baseline total cholesterol of 4-7 mmol/l. Following identification of patients who had suffered non-haemorrhagic stroke, a pre-specified secondary end point, multivariate Cox regression was used to determine risk in the total population. Time-to-event analysis was used to determine the effect of pravastatin therapy on the rate of non-haemorrhagic stroke. Results There were 388 non-haemorrhagic strokes in 350 patients. Factors conferring risk of future non-haemorrhagic stroke were age, atrial fibrillation, prior stroke, diabetes, hypertension, systolic blood pressure, cigarette smoking, body mass index, male sex and creatinine clearance. Baseline lipids did not predict non-haemorrhagic stroke. Treatment with pravastatin reduced non-haemorrhagic stroke by 23% (P= 0.016) when considered alone, and 21% (P= 0.024) after adjustment for other risk factors. Conclusions The study confirmed the variety of risk factors for non-haemorrhagic stroke. From the risk predictors, a simple prognostic index was created for nonhaemorrhagic stroke to identify a group of patients at high risk. Treatment with pravastatin resulted in significant additional benefit after allowance for risk factors. (C) 2002 Lippincott Williams Wilkins.

Use of an accelerated chest pain assessment protocol in patients at intermediate risk of adverse cardiac events

Objective: To determine the feasibility, safety and effectiveness of a structured clinical pathway for stratification and management of patients presenting with chest pain and classified as having intermediate risk of adverse cardiac outcomes in the subsequent six months. Design: Prospective clinical audit. Participants and setting: 630 consecutive patients who presented to the emergency department of a metropolitan tertiary care hospital between January 2000 and June 2001 with chest pain and intermediate-risk features. Intervention: Use of the Accelerated Chest Pain Assessment Protocol (ACPAP), as advocated by the Management of unstable angina guidelines - 2000 from the National Heart Foundation and the Cardiac Society of Australia and New Zealand. Main outcome measure: Adverse cardiac events during six-month follow-up. Results: 409 patients (65%) were reclassified as low risk and discharged at a mean of 14 hours after assessment in the chest pain unit. None had missed myocardial infarctions, while three (1%) had cardiac events at six months (all elective revascularisation procedures, with no readmissions with acute coronary syndromes). Another 110 patients (17%) were reclassified as high risk, and 21 (19%) of these had cardiac events (mainly revascularisations) by six months. Patients who were unable to exercise or had non-diagnostic exercise stress test results (equivocal risk) had an intermediate cardiac event rate (8%). Conclusions: This study validates use of ACPAP. The protocol eliminated missed myocardial infarction; allowed early, safe discharge of low-risk patients; and led to early identification and management of high-risk patients.

Butyrylcholinesterase: Association with the metabolic syndrome and identification of 2 gene loci affecting activity

Background: Plasma cholinesterase activity is known to be correlated with plasma triglycerides, HDL- and LDL-cholesterol, and other features of the metabolic syndrome. A role in triglyceride metabolism has been proposed. Genetic variants that decrease activity have been studied extensively, but the factors contributing to overall variation in the population are poorly understood. We studied plasma cholinesterase activity in a sample of 2200 adult twins to assess covariation with cardiovascular risk factors and components of the metabolic syndrome, to determine the degree of genetic effects on enzyme activity, and to search for quantitative trait loci affecting activity. Methods and Results: Cholinesterase activity was lower in women than in men before the age of 50, but increased to activity values similar to those in males after that age. There were highly significant correlations with variables associated with the metabolic syndrome: plasma triglyceride, HDL- and LDL-cholesterol, apolipoprotein B and E, urate, and insulin concentrations; gamma-glutamyltransferase and aspartate and alanine aminotransferase activities; body mass index; and blood pressure. The heritability of plasma cholinesterase activity was 65%. Linkage analysis with data from the dizygotic twin pairs showed suggestive linkage on chromosome 3 at the location of the cholinesterase WHO gene and also on chromosome 5. Conclusions: Our results confirm and extend the connection between cholinesterase, cardiovascular risk factors, and metabolic syndrome. They establish a substantial heritability for plasma cholinesterase activity that might be attributable to variation near the structural gene and at an independent locus. (c) 2006 American Association for Clinical Chemistry.

The prediction of disease risk in genomic medicine

In recent years, the phrase 'genomic medicine' has increasingly been used to describe a new development in medicine that holds great promise for human health. This new approach to health care uses the knowledge of an individual's genetic make-up to identify those that are at a higher risk of developing certain diseases and to intervene at an earlier stage to prevent these diseases. Identifying genes that are involved in disease aetiology will provide researchers with tools to develop better treatments and cures. A major role within this field is attributed to 'predictive genomic medicine', which proposes screening healthy individuals to identify those who carry alleles that increase their susceptibility to common diseases, such as cancers and heart disease. Physicians could then intervene even before the disease manifests and advise individuals with a higher genetic risk to change their behaviour - for instance, to exercise or to eat a healthier diet - or offer drugs or other medical treatment to reduce their chances of developing these diseases. These promises have fallen on fertile ground among politicians, health-care providers and the general public, particularly in light of the increasing costs of health care in developed societies. Various countries have established databases on the DNA and health information of whole populations as a first step towards genomic medicine. Biomedical research has also identified a large number of genes that could be used to predict someone's risk of developing a certain disorder. But it would be premature to assume that genomic medicine will soon become reality, as many problems remain to be solved. Our knowledge about most disease genes and their roles is far from sufficient to make reliable predictions about a patient’s risk of actually developing a disease. In addition, genomic medicine will create new political, social, ethical and economic challenges that will have to be addressed in the near future.

Environmental Risk Factors for Parkinson's Disease

Parkinson’s disease (PD) is a progressive, degenerative, neurological disease. The progressive disability associated with PD results in substantial burdens for those with the condition, their families and society in terms of increased health resource use, earnings loss of affected individuals and family caregivers, poorer quality of life, caregiver burden, disrupted family relationships, decreased social and leisure activities, and deteriorating emotional well-being. Currently, no cure is available and the efficacy of available treatments, such as medication and surgical interventions, decreases with longer duration of the disease. Whilst the cause of PD is unknown, genetic and environmental factors are believed to contribute to its aetiology. Descriptive and analytical epidemiological studies have been conducted in a number of countries in an effort to elucidate the cause, or causes, of PD. Rural residency, farming, well water consumption, pesticide exposure, metals and solvents have been implicated as potential risk factors for PD in some previous epidemiological studies. However, there is substantial disagreement between the results of existing studies. Therefore, the role of environmental exposures in the aetiology of PD remains unclear. The main component of this thesis consists of a case-control study that assessed the contribution of environmental exposures to the risk of developing PD. An existing, previously unanalysed, dataset from a local case-control study was analysed to inform the design of the new case-control study. The analysis results suggested that regular exposure to pesticides and head injury were important risk factors for PD. However, due to the substantial limitations of this existing study, further confirmation of these results was desirable with a more robustly designed epidemiological study. A new exposure measurement instrument (a structured interviewer-delivered questionnaire) was developed for the new case-control study to obtain data on demographic, lifestyle, environmental and medical factors. Prior to its use in the case-control study, the questionnaire was assessed for test-retest repeatability in a series of 32 PD cases and 29 healthy sex-, age- and residential suburb-matched electoral roll controls. High repeatability was demonstrated for lifestyle exposures, such as smoking and coffee/tea consumption (kappas 0.70-1.00). The majority of environmental exposures, including use of pesticides, solvents and exposure to metal dusts and fumes, also showed high repeatability (kappas >0.78). A consecutive series of 163 PD case participants was recruited from a neurology clinic in Brisbane. One hundred and fifty-one (151) control participants were randomly selected from the Australian Commonwealth Electoral Roll and individually matched to the PD cases on age (± 2 years), sex and current residential suburb. Participants ranged in age from 40-89 years (mean age 67 years). Exposure data were collected in face-to-face interviews. Odds ratios and 95% confidence intervals were calculated using conditional logistic regression for matched sets in SAS version 9.1. Consistent with previous studies, ever having been a regular smoker or coffee drinker was inversely associated with PD with dose-response relationships evident for packyears smoked and number of cups of coffee drunk per day. Passive smoking from ever having lived with a smoker or worked in a smoky workplace was also inversely related to PD. Ever having been a regular tea drinker was associated with decreased odds of PD. Hobby gardening was inversely associated with PD. However, use of fungicides in the home garden or occupationally was associated with increased odds of PD. Exposure to welding fumes, cleaning solvents, or thinners occupationally was associated with increased odds of PD. Ever having resided in a rural or remote area was inversely associated with PD. Ever having resided on a farm was only associated with moderately increased odds of PD. Whilst the current study’s results suggest that environmental exposures on their own are only modest contributors to overall PD risk, the possibility that interaction with genetic factors may additively or synergistically increase risk should be considered. The results of this research support the theory that PD has a multifactorial aetiology and that environmental exposures are some of a number of factors to contribute to PD risk. There was also evidence of interaction between some factors (eg smoking and welding) to moderate PD risk.

A randomized and controlled trial of a participative ergonomics intervention to reduce injuries associated with manual tasks: physical risk and legislative

A participative ergonomics approach to reducing injuries associated with manual tasks is widely promoted; however only limited evidence from uncontrolled trials has been available to support the efficacy of such an approach. This paper reports on a randomized and controlled trial of PErforM, a participative ergonomics intervention designed to reduce the risks of injury associated with manual tasks. One hundred and seventeen small to medium sized food, construction, and health workplaces were audited by government inspectors using a manual tasks risk assessment tool (ManTRA). Forty-eight volunteer workplaces were then randomly assigned to Experimental and Control groups with the Experimental group receiving the PErforM program. Inspectors audited the workplaces again, 9 months following the intervention. The results showed a significant decrease in estimates of manual task risk and suggested better legal compliance in the Experimental group.