Estimating variable returns to scale production frontiers with alternative stochastic assumptions

Two stochastic production frontier models are formulated within the generalized production function framework popularized by Zellner and Revankar (Rev. Econ. Stud. 36 (1969) 241) and Zellner and Ryu (J. Appl. Econometrics 13 (1998) 101). This framework is convenient for parsimonious modeling of a production function with returns to scale specified as a function of output. Two alternatives for introducing the stochastic inefficiency term and the stochastic error are considered. In the first the errors are added to an equation of the form h(log y, theta) = log f (x, beta) where y denotes output, x is a vector of inputs and (theta, beta) are parameters. In the second the equation h(log y,theta) = log f(x, beta) is solved for log y to yield a solution of the form log y = g[theta, log f(x, beta)] and the errors are added to this equation. The latter alternative is novel, but it is needed to preserve the usual definition of firm efficiency. The two alternative stochastic assumptions are considered in conjunction with two returns to scale functions, making a total of four models that are considered. A Bayesian framework for estimating all four models is described. The techniques are applied to USDA state-level data on agricultural output and four inputs. Posterior distributions for all parameters, for firm efficiencies and for the efficiency rankings of firms are obtained. The sensitivity of the results to the returns to scale specification and to the stochastic specification is examined. (c) 2004 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Forecasting stock returns using model-selection criteria

This paper examines the economic significance of return predictability in Australian equities. In light of considerable model uncertainty, formal model-selection criteria are used to choose a specification for the predictive model. A portfolio-switching strategy is implemented according to model predictions. Relative to a buy-and-hold market investment, the returns to the portfolio-switching strategy are impressive under several model-selection criteria, even after accounting for transaction costs. However, as these findings are not robust across other model-selection criteria examined, it is difficult to conclude that the degree of return predictability is economically significant.

Inherent size constraints on prokaryote gene networks due to "accelerating" growth

Networks exhibiting accelerating growth have total link numbers growing faster than linearly with network size and either reach a limit or exhibit graduated transitions from nonstationary-to-stationary statistics and from random to scale-free to regular statistics as the network size grows. However, if for any reason the network cannot tolerate such gross structural changes then accelerating networks are constrained to have sizes below some critical value. This is of interest as the regulatory gene networks of single-celled prokaryotes are characterized by an accelerating quadratic growth and are size constrained to be less than about 10,000 genes encoded in DNA sequence of less than about 10 megabases. This paper presents a probabilistic accelerating network model for prokaryotic gene regulation which closely matches observed statistics by employing two classes of network nodes (regulatory and non-regulatory) and directed links whose inbound heads are exponentially distributed over all nodes and whose outbound tails are preferentially attached to regulatory nodes and described by a scale-free distribution. This model explains the observed quadratic growth in regulator number with gene number and predicts an upper prokaryote size limit closely approximating the observed value. (c) 2005 Elsevier GmbH. All rights reserved.

The return to schooling: Estimates from a sample of young Australian twins

This study uses a sample of young Australian twins to examine whether the findings reported in [Ashenfelter, Orley and Krueger, Alan, (1994). 'Estimates of the Economic Return to Schooling from a New Sample of Twins', American Economic Review, Vol. 84, No. 5, pp.1157-73] and [Miller, P.W., Mulvey, C and Martin, N., (1994). 'What Do Twins Studies Tell Us About the Economic Returns to Education?: A Comparison of Australian and US Findings', Western Australian Labour Market Research Centre Discussion Paper 94/4] are robust to choice of sample and dependent variable. The economic return to schooling in Australia is between 5 and 7 percent when account is taken of genetic and family effects using either fixed-effects models or the selection effects model of Ashenfelter and Krueger. Given the similarity of the findings in this and in related studies, it would appear that the models applied by [Ashenfelter, Orley and Krueger, Alan, (1994). 'Estimates of the Economic Return to Schooling from a New Sample of Twins', American Economic Review, Vol. 84, No. 5, pp. 1157-73] are robust. Moreover, viewing the OLS and IV estimators as lower and upper bounds in the manner of [Black, Dan A., Berger, Mark C., and Scott, Frank C., (2000). 'Bounding Parameter Estimates with Nonclassical Measurement Error', Journal of the American Statistical Association, Vol. 95, No.451, pp.739-748], it is shown that the bounds on the return to schooling in Australia are much tighter than in [Ashenfelter, Orley and Krueger, Alan, (1994). 'Estimates of the Economic Return to Schooling from a New Sample of Twins', American Economic Review, Vol. 84, No. 5, pp. 1157-73], and the return is bounded at a much lower level than in the US. (c) 2005 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Graduate overeducation and its effects among recently arrived immigrants to Australia: A longitudinal survey

There is increasing importance attached to skill-based immigration in many countries including Australia. This paper investigates the incidences, determinants, and returns to graduate overeducation among tertiary qualified immigrants during the early phase of their settlement in Australia. We place particular emphasis on visa categories and region of origin. As expected, those on visas with higher skill requirements perform better in the labour market. The bulk of these are immigrants from English Speaking Backgrounds (ESB). Non-English Speaking Background (NESB) immigrants, on the other hand, have higher and persistent rates of overeducation. The wage returns to required and surplus education match the stylized facts of overeducation for ESB and Other NESB immigrants while Asian NESB immigrants receive no return to surplus education. Thus, the results suggest that NESB graduate immigrants are a heterogeneous group, with Asian graduate immigrants facing greater assimilation hurdles in the Australian labour market.