System for foreign exchange trading using genetic algorithms and reinforcement learning

Foreign exchange trading has emerged recently as a significant activity in many countries. As with most forms of trading, the activity is influenced by many random parameters so that the creation of a system that effectively emulates the trading process will be very helpful. A major issue for traders in the deregulated Foreign Exchange Market is when to sell and when to buy a particular currency in order to maximize profit. This paper presents novel trading strategies based on the machine learning methods of genetic algorithms and reinforcement learning.

Bifurcation analysis of a dynamic power system with SVC devices

Bifurcation analysis is a very useful tool for power system stability assessment. In this paper, detailed investigation of power system bifurcation behaviour is presented. One and two parameter bifurcation analysis are conducted on a 3-bus power system. We also examined the impact of FACTS devices on power system stability through Hopf bifurcation analysis by taking static Var compensator (SVC) as an example. A simplified first-order model of the SVC device is included in the 3-bus sample system. Real and reactive powers are used as bifurcation parameter in the analysis to compare the system oscillatory properties with and without SVC. The simulation results indicate that the linearized system model with SVC enlarge the voltage stability boundary by moving Hopf bifurcation point to higher level of loading conditions. The installation of SVC increases the dynamic stability range of the system, however complicates the Hopf bifurcation behavior of the system

Geographic variation and positive selection on M7 lysin, an acrosomal sperm protein in mussels (Mytilus spp.)

Successful fertilization in free-spawning marine organisms depends on the interactions between genes expressed on the surfaces of eggs and sperm. Positive selection frequently characterizes the molecular evolution of such genes, raising the possibility that some common deterministic process drives the evolution of gamete recognition genes and may even be important for understanding the evolution of prezygotic isolation and speciation in the marine realm. One hypothesis is that gamete recognition genes are subject to selection for prezygotic isolation, namely reinforcement. In a previous study, positive selection on the gene coding for the acrosomal sperm protein M7 lysin was demonstrated among allopatric populations of mussels in the Mytilus edulis species group (M. edulis, M. galloprovincialis, and M. trossulus). Here, we expand sampling to include M7 lysin haplotypes from populations where mussel species are sympatric and hybridize to determine whether there is a pattern of reproductive character displacement, which would be consistent with reinforcement driving selection on this gene. We do not detect a strong pattern of reproductive character displacement; there are no unique haplotypes in sympatry nor is there consistently greater population structure in comparisons involving sympatric populations. One distinct group of haplotypes, however, is strongly affected by natural selection and this group of haplotypes is found within M. galloprovincialis populations throughout the Northern Hemisphere concurrent with haplotypes common to M. galloprovincialis and M. edulis. We suggest that balancing selection, perhaps resulting from sexual conflicts between sperm and eggs, maintains old allelic diversity within M. galloprovincialis.

Do organizational climate and competitive strategy moderate the relationship between human resource management and productivity?

This study examined whether the effectiveness of human resource management (HRM)practices is contingent on organizational climate and competitive strategy The concepts of internol and external fit suggest that the positive relationship between HRM and subsequent productivity will be stronger for firms with a positive organizational climate and for firms using differentiation strategies. Resource allocation theories of motivation, on the other hand, predict that the relationship between HRM and productivity will be stronger for firms with a poor climate because employees working in these firms should have the greatest amount of spare capacity. The results supported the resource allocation argument.

Microbial Fuel Cells: Methodology and Technology

Microbial fuel cell (MFC) research is a rapidly evolving field that lacks established terminology and methods for the analysis of system performance. This makes it difficult for researchers to compare devices on an equivalent basis. The construction and analysis of MFCs requires knowledge of different scientific and engineering fields, ranging from microbiology and electrochemistry to materials and environmental engineering. DescribingMFCsystems therefore involves an understanding of these different scientific and engineering principles. In this paper, we provide a review of the different materials and methods used to construct MFCs, techniques used to analyze system performance, and recommendations on what information to include in MFC studies and the most useful ways to present results.

Improving the economic decision making capability and viability of Chinese wool textile mills

The successful restructuring of Chinese industries is of immense importance not only for the continued development of China but also to the stability of the world economy. The transformation of the Chinese wool textile industry illustrates well the many problems and pressures currently facing most Chinese industries. The Chinese wool textile industry has undergone major upheaval and restructuring in its drive to modernize and take advantage of developments in world textile markets. Macro level ownership and administrative reforms are well advanced as is the uptake of new technology and equipment. However, the changing market and institutional environment also demands an increasing level of sophistication in mill management decisions including product selection, input procurement, product pricing, investment appraisal, cost analysis and proactive identification of new market and growth opportunities. This paper outlines a series of analyses that have been integrated into a decision-making model designed to assist mill managers with these decisions. Features of the model include a whole-of-mill approach, a design based on existing mill structures and information systems, and the capacity for the model to be tailored to individual mills. All of these features facilitate the adoption of the model by time and resource constrained managers seeking to maintain the viability of their enterprises in the face of extremely dynamic market conditions.

Falls prevention in rural general practice: what stands the test of time and where to from here?

Objective: General practitioner recall of the 1992-96 'Stay on Your Feet'(SOYF) program and its influence on practice were surveyed five years post-intervention to gauge sustainability of the SOYF General Practice (GP) component. Methods: A survey assessed which SOYF components were still in existence, current practice related to falls prevention, and interest in professional development. All general practitioners (GPs) situated within the boundaries of a rural Area Health Service were mailed a survey in late 2001. Results: Response rate was 66.5% (139/ 209). Of 117 GPs in practice at the time of SOYF, 80.2% reported having heard of SOYF and 74.4% of those felt it had influenced practice. Half (50.9%) still had a copy of the SOYF GP resource and of those, 58.6% used it at least 'occasionally'. Three-quarters of GPs surveyed (75.2%) checked medications 'most/almost all' of the time with patients over 60 years; 46.7% assessed falls risk factors; 41.3% gave advice; and 22.6% referred to allied health practitioners. GPs indicated a strong interest in falls prevention- related professional development. There was no significant association between use of the SOYF resource package and any of the current falls prevention practices (all chi(2)>0.05). Conclusions and implications: There was high recall of SOYF and a general belief that it influenced practice. There was little indication that use of the resource had any lasting influence on GPs' practices. In future, careful thought needs to go into designing a program that has potential to affect long-term change in GPs' falls prevention practice.

Regional investment strategies (RIS) and coastal catchment initiative (CCI) project alignmnet to Great Barrier Reef Water Quality Protection Plan

The Great Barrier Reef Water Quality Protection Plan (the Reef Plan) is a joint initiative of the Australian and Queensland Governments. The Reef Plan aims to progress an integrated approach to natural resource management planning by building on the existing partnerships between the different levels of government, industry groups, the community and research providers within the Reef catchments, principally through partnerships with the regional natural resource management (NRM) bodies.

Modeling the economic losses from pressure ulcers among hospitalized patients in Australia

The objective of this study was to predict the number of cases of pressure ulcer, the bed days lost, and the economic value of these losses at Australian public hospitals. All adults (>= 18 years of age) with a minimum stay of 1 night and discharged from selected clinical units from all Australian public hospitals in 2001-02 were included in the study. The main outcome measures were the number of cases of pressure ulcer, bed days lost to pressure ulcer, and economic value of these losses. We predict a median of 95,695 cases of pressure ulcer with a median of 398,432 bed days lost, incurring median opportunity costs of AU$285 M. The number of cases, and so costs, were greatest in New South Wales and lowest in Australian Capitol Territory. We conclude that pressure ulcers represent a serious clinical and economic problem for a resource-constrained public hospital system. The most cost-effective, risk-reducing interventions should be pursued up to a point where the marginal benefit of prevention is equalized with marginal cost. By preventing pressure ulcers, public hospitals can improve efficiency and the quality of the patient's experience and health outcome.

Validation of multicriteria analysis models

Validation procedures play an important role in establishing the credibility of models, improving their relevance and acceptability. This article reviews the testing of models relevant to environmental and natural resource management with particular emphasis on models used in multicriteria analysis (MCA). Validation efforts for a model used in a MCA catchment management study in North Queensland, Australia, are presented. Determination of face validity is found to be a useful approach in evaluating this model, and sensitivity analysis is useful in checking the stability of the model. (C) 2000 Elsevier Science Ltd. All rights reserved.

Sound source localisation through active audition

This paper presents a novel method for enabling a robot to determine the direction to a sound source through interacting with its environment. The method uses a new neural network, the Parameter-Less Self-Organizing Map algorithm, and reinforcement learning to achieve rapid and accurate response.

Adopting turtle excluder devices in Australia and the United States: What are the differences in technology transfer, promotion, and acceptance?

Turtle excluder devices (TEDs) are being trialed on a voluntary basis in many Australian prawn (shrimp) trawl fisheries to reduce sea turtle captures. Analysis of TED introductions into shrimp trawl fisheries of the United States provided major insights into why conflicts occurred between shrimpers, conservationists, and government agencies. A conflict over the introduction and subsequent regulation of TEDs occurred because the problem and the solution were perceived differently by the various stakeholders. Attempts to negotiate and mediate the conflict broke down, resulting in litigation against the U.S. government by conservationists and shrimpers. Litigation was not an efficient resolution to the sea turtle-TED-trawl conflict but it appears that litigation was the only remaining path of resolution once the issue became polarized. We review two major Australian trawl fisheries to identify any significant differences in circumstances that may affect TED acceptance. Australian trawl fisheries are structured differently and good communication occurs between industry and researchers. TEDs are being introduced as mature technology. Furthermore, bycatch issues are of increasing concern to all stakeholders. These factors, combined with insights derived from previous conflicts concerning TEDs in the United Stares, increase the possibilities that TEDs will be introduced to Australian fishers with better acceptance.

An Incremental EM-based Learning Approach for On-Line Prediction of Hospital Resource Utilization

Objective: Inpatient length of stay (LOS) is an important measure of hospital activity, health care resource consumption, and patient acuity. This research work aims at developing an incremental expectation maximization (EM) based learning approach on mixture of experts (ME) system for on-line prediction of LOS. The use of a batchmode learning process in most existing artificial neural networks to predict LOS is unrealistic, as the data become available over time and their pattern change dynamically. In contrast, an on-line process is capable of providing an output whenever a new datum becomes available. This on-the-spot information is therefore more useful and practical for making decisions, especially when one deals with a tremendous amount of data. Methods and material: The proposed approach is illustrated using a real example of gastroenteritis LOS data. The data set was extracted from a retrospective cohort study on all infants born in 1995-1997 and their subsequent admissions for gastroenteritis. The total number of admissions in this data set was n = 692. Linked hospitalization records of the cohort were retrieved retrospectively to derive the outcome measure, patient demographics, and associated co-morbidities information. A comparative study of the incremental learning and the batch-mode learning algorithms is considered. The performances of the learning algorithms are compared based on the mean absolute difference (MAD) between the predictions and the actual LOS, and the proportion of predictions with MAD < 1 day (Prop(MAD < 1)). The significance of the comparison is assessed through a regression analysis. Results: The incremental learning algorithm provides better on-line prediction of LOS when the system has gained sufficient training from more examples (MAD = 1.77 days and Prop(MAD < 1) = 54.3%), compared to that using the batch-mode learning. The regression analysis indicates a significant decrease of MAD (p-value = 0.063) and a significant (p-value = 0.044) increase of Prop(MAD