Increasing profits and reducing risks in crop production using participatory systems simulation approaches

The development of cropping systems simulation capabilities world-wide combined with easy access to powerful computing has resulted in a plethora of agricultural models and consequently, model applications. Nonetheless, the scientific credibility of such applications and their relevance to farming practice is still being questioned. Our objective in this paper is to highlight some of the model applications from which benefits for farmers were or could be obtained via changed agricultural practice or policy. Changed on-farm practice due to the direct contribution of modelling, while keenly sought after, may in some cases be less achievable than a contribution via agricultural policies. This paper is intended to give some guidance for future model applications. It is not a comprehensive review of model applications, nor is it intended to discuss modelling in the context of social science or extension policy. Rather, we take snapshots around the globe to 'take stock' and to demonstrate that well-defined financial and environmental benefits can be obtained on-farm from the use of models. We highlight the importance of 'relevance' and hence the importance of true partnerships between all stakeholders (farmer, scientists, advisers) for the successful development and adoption of simulation approaches. Specifically, we address some key points that are essential for successful model applications such as: (1) issues to be addressed must be neither trivial nor obvious; (2) a modelling approach must reduce complexity rather than proliferate choices in order to aid the decision-making process (3) the cropping systems must be sufficiently flexible to allow management interventions based on insights gained from models. The pro and cons of normative approaches (e.g. decision support software that can reach a wide audience quickly but are often poorly contextualized for any individual client) versus model applications within the context of an individual client's situation will also be discussed. We suggest that a tandem approach is necessary whereby the latter is used in the early stages of model application for confidence building amongst client groups. This paper focuses on five specific regions that differ fundamentally in terms of environment and socio-economic structure and hence in their requirements for successful model applications. Specifically, we will give examples from Australia and South America (high climatic variability, large areas, low input, technologically advanced); Africa (high climatic variability, small areas, low input, subsistence agriculture); India (high climatic variability, small areas, medium level inputs, technologically progressing; and Europe (relatively low climatic variability, small areas, high input, technologically advanced). The contrast between Australia and Europe will further demonstrate how successful model applications are strongly influenced by the policy framework within which producers operate. We suggest that this might eventually lead to better adoption of fully integrated systems approaches and result in the development of resilient farming systems that are in tune with current climatic conditions and are adaptable to biophysical and socioeconomic variability and change. (C) 2001 Elsevier Science Ltd. All rights reserved.

Change in woolgrower profits from adopting staple strength-enhancing management strategies

Wool tenderness is a significant problem in Australia, especially in areas where sheep graze under highly seasonal conditions. In this study, a profit function model is specified, estimated and simulated to assess the economic impact of staple strength-enhancing research on the profits of Australian woolgrowers. The model is based on a number of fundamental characteristics of the Australian wool industry and the staple-strength enhancing technology being assessed. The model consists of a system of demand and supply equations that are specified in terms of effective, rather than actual, prices. The interrelationships between the inputs and outputs are allowed for in the model in a manner that is consistent with theoretical restrictions. The adoption of the new feed management strategy results in a 4.4% increase in the expected profits of Australian wool producers in the short-run, and a 2.2% increase in expected profits in the long-run.

Comparison of BR and QR Eigenvalue Algorithms for Power System Small Signal Stability Analysis

The BR algorithm is a novel and efficient method to find all eigenvalues of upper Hessenberg matrices and has never been applied to eigenanalysis for power system small signal stability. This paper analyzes differences between the BR and the QR algorithms with performance comparison in terms of CPU time based on stopping criteria and storage requirement. The BR algorithm utilizes accelerating strategies to improve its performance when computing eigenvalues of narrowly banded, nearly tridiagonal upper Hessenberg matrices. These strategies significantly reduce the computation time at a reasonable level of precision. Compared with the QR algorithm, the BR algorithm requires fewer iteration steps and less storage space without depriving of appropriate precision in solving eigenvalue problems of large-scale power systems. Numerical examples demonstrate the efficiency of the BR algorithm in pursuing eigenanalysis tasks of 39-, 68-, 115-, 300-, and 600-bus systems. Experiment results suggest that the BR algorithm is a more efficient algorithm for large-scale power system small signal stability eigenanalysis.

Development, prevention and treatment of iron deficiency in women

Iron deficiency is the most common nutritional deficiency in the world. Women of childbearing age are at particular risk of developing iron deficiency due to the iron losses associated with menstruation and childbirth. Women in less developed countries are often unable to obtain adequate dietary iron for their needs due to poor food supplies and inadequate bioavailable iron. In this situation, fortification and supplementation of the diet with extra iron is a reasonable approach to the prevention and treatment of iron deficiency. In Western countries however, food supply is unlikely to be an issue in the development of iron deficiency, yet studies have shown that many women in these countries receive inadequate dietary iron. Research has shown that the form of iron and the role of enhancers and inhibitors of iron absorption may be more important than total iron intake in determining iron status. Despite this, very little research attention has been paid to the role of diet in the prevention and treatment of iron deficiency. Dietary modification would appear to be a viable option for the prevention and treatment of iron deficiency in Western women, especially if the effects of enhancers/inhibitors of absorption are considered. While dietary modification has the potential to address at least part of the cause of iron deficiency in women of childbearing age, its efficacy is yet to be proven. (C) 1998 Elsevier Science Inc.

On uniquely determining cell-wall material properties with the compression experiment

A finite element model (FEM) of the cell-compression experiment has been developed in dimensionless form to extract the fundamental cell-wall-material properties (i.e. the constitutive equation and its parameters) from experiment force-displacement data. The FEM simulates the compression of a thin-walled, liquid-filled sphere between two flat surfaces. The cell-wall was taken to be permeable and the FEM therefore accounts for volume loss during compression. Previous models assume an impermeable wall and hence a conserved cell volume during compression. A parametric study was conducted for structural parameters representative of yeast. It was shown that the common approach of assuming reasonable values for unmeasured parameters (e.g. cell-wall thickness, initial radial stretch) can give rise to nonunique solutions for both the form and constants in the cell-wall constitutive relationship. Similarly, measurement errors can also lead to an incorrectly defined cell-wall constitutive relationship. Unique determination of the fundamental wall properties by cell compression requires accurate and precise measurement of a minimum set of parameters (initial cell radius, initial cell-wall thickness, and the volume loss during compression). In the absence of such measurements the derived constitutive relationship may be in considerable error, and should be evaluated against its ability to predict the outcome of other mechanical experiments. (C) 1998 Elsevier Science Ltd. All rights reserved.

Simulation and optimization of heated, inviscid flows in scramjet ducts

A space-marching code for the simulation and optimization of inviscid supersonic flow in three dimensions is described. The now in a scramjet module with a relatively complex three-dimensional geometry is examined and wall-pressure estimates are compared with experimental data. Given that viscous effects are not presently included, the comparison is reasonable. The thermodynamic compromise of adding heat in a diverging combustor is also examined. The code is then used to optimize the shape of a thrust surface for a simpler (box-section) scramjet module in the presence of uniform and nonuniform heat distributions. The optimum two-dimensional profiles for the thrust surface are obtained via a perturbation procedure that requires about 30-50 now solutions. It is found that the final shapes are fairly insensitive to the details of the heat distribution.

Patient matching in treatment for alcohol dependence: is the null hypothesis still alive and well?

In the light of Project MATCH, is it reasonable to accept the null hypothesis that there are no clinically signi® cant matching effects between patient characteristics and cognitive± behaviour therapy (CBT), motivational enhancement therapy (MET) and Twelve-Step facilitation therapy (TSF)? The Project MATCH investigators considered the null hypothesis but preferred the alternative hypothesis that further analysis may reveal combinations of patient and therapist characteristics that show more substantial matching effects than any of the variables that they have examined to date.1

Increased ovulation rate in Merino ewes immunized against small synthetic peptide fragments of the inhibin alpha subunit

Four experiments were carried out in Merino ewes during a period of 4 years to determine the long-term effects of immunization against different synthetic peptides mimicking the amine terminal of the or subunit of porcine inhibin. Peptides were conjugated to human serum albumin and 100-200 mu g emulsified in Freund's complete adjuvant for the primary immunization. Usually two booster injections were given at monthly intervals with 50-100 mu g conjugated peptide using either incomplete Freund's adjuvant or Montanide : Marcel. In some experiments a further immunization was carried in the next year. Blood samples were taken 10 days after each immunization, during the luteal phase, for estimation of gonadotrophin concentrations and determination of inhibin antibody titres. One day after blood sampling cloprostenol was used to induce luteolysis and laparoscopy was performed in the subsequent oestrous cycle. Immunization of ewes with synthetic peptides 1-32, 1-26, 7-26 and 8-30 resulted in large increases in the ovulation rate (OR). An approximately two-fold increase in OR was observed following the first booster immunization with these peptides and a three- to five-fold increase after the second booster immunization. Immunization with these large peptides resulted in a sustained increase in OR for a period of at least 1 year after the second booster immunization. Of the shorter peptides, peptides 10-26 and 13-26 gave a reasonable ovulatory response, although it was more difficult to obtain a response with peptides 1-16, 8-22, 13-25, 8-19 and 10-19; peptides 7-13 and 1-6 gave no response (but were examined for one breeding season only). The smaller peptides led to lower inhibin antibody titres that were not necessarily associated with increased follicle-stimulating hormone (FSH) or OR. More intensive blood sampling in one experiment showed that following primary immunization against peptide 1-32 there was a transient increase in plasma FSH which did not lead to an increased OR. Moreover, a prolonged period of raised FSH after the first booster was significantly correlated with increased OR. In these animals antibody titres were only slightly increased after primary immunization, but after the first booster immunization higher titres were observed that were significantly correlated with trough FSH values and the subsequent OR. These results are interpreted as showing that (1) to obtain an increase in OR peptides 1-32, 1-26 and 7-26 are suitable as immunogens; (2) smaller peptides are less reliable, often require multiple injections, and the response may be delayed; and (3) an extended period of raised plasma FSH is needed to give a large ovulatory response.