Constructing internationally comparable real income aggregates by combining sparse benchmark data with annual national accounts data: A state-space approach

The importance of availability of comparable real income aggregates and their components to applied economic research is highlighted by the popularity of the Penn World Tables. Any methodology designed to achieve such a task requires the combination of data from several sources. The first is purchasing power parities (PPP) data available from the International Comparisons Project roughly every five years since the 1970s. The second is national level data on a range of variables that explain the behaviour of the ratio of PPP to market exchange rates. The final source of data is the national accounts publications of different countries which include estimates of gross domestic product and various price deflators. In this paper we present a method to construct a consistent panel of comparable real incomes by specifying the problem in state-space form. We present our completed work as well as briefly indicate our work in progress.

Inflation expectations, interest rates and arbitrary income transfers

Unexpected inflation, disinflation or deflation cause arbitrary income transfers between an economy's borrowers and lenders. This redistribution results from distorted real interest rates that are too high when price level changes are over-predicted and too low when they are under-predicted. This article shows that in Australia's case, inflation expectations were mostly biased upwards throughout the 1990s, according to the Melbourne Institute of Applied Economic and Social Research series and to a new derived series based on bond yields, implying that real interest rates were too high over this time. In turn, this caused substantial arbitrary income transfers from debtors to creditors, estimated to have averaged up to 3 per cent of gross domestic product over the period.

System for foreign exchange trading using genetic algorithms and reinforcement learning

Foreign exchange trading has emerged recently as a significant activity in many countries. As with most forms of trading, the activity is influenced by many random parameters so that the creation of a system that effectively emulates the trading process will be very helpful. A major issue for traders in the deregulated Foreign Exchange Market is when to sell and when to buy a particular currency in order to maximize profit. This paper presents novel trading strategies based on the machine learning methods of genetic algorithms and reinforcement learning.

A machine learning approach to intraday trading on foreign exchange markets

Foreign Exchange trading has emerged in recent times as a significant activity in many countries. As with most forms of trading, the activity is influenced by many random parameters so that the creation of a system that effectively emulates the trading process will be very helpful. In this paper we try to create such a system using Machine learning approach to emulate trader behaviour on the Foreign Exchange market and to find the most profitable trading strategy.

H-1-NMR structural studies of a cystine-linked peptide containing residues 71-93 of transthyretin and effects of a Ser84 substitution implicated in familial amyloidotic polyneuropathy

The Ile-->Ser84 substitution in the thyroid hormone transport protein transthyretin is one of over 50 variations found to be associated with familial amyloid polyneuropathy, a hereditary type of lethal amyloidosis. Using a peptide analogue of the loop containing residue 84 in transthyretin, we have examined the putative local structural effects of this substitution using H-1-NMR spectroscopy. The peptide, containing residues 71-93 of transthyretin with its termini linked via a disulfide bond, was found to possess the same helix-turn motif as in the corresponding region of the crystallographically derived structure of transthyretin in 20% trifluoroethanol (TFE) solution. It therefore, represents a useful model with which to examine the effects of amyloidogenic substitutions. In a peptide analogue containing the Ile84-->Ser substitution it was found that the substitution does not greatly disrupt the overall three-dimensional structure, but leads to minor local differences at the turn in which residue 84 is involved. Coupling constant and NOE measurements indicate that the helix-turn motif is still present, but differences in chemical shifts and amide-exchange rates reflect a small distortion. This is in keeping with observations that several other mutant forms of transthyretin display similar subunit interactions and those that have been structurally analysed possess a near native structure. We propose that the Ser84 mutation induces only subtle perturbations to the transthyretin structure which predisposes the protein to amyloid formation.

Marine protected areas for spatially structured exploited stocks

Many harvested marine and terrestrial populations have segments of their range protected in areas free from exploitation. Reasons for areas being protected from harvesting include conservation, tourism, research, protection of breeding grounds, stock recovery, harvest regulation, or habitat that is uneconomical to exploit. In this paper we consider the problem of optimally exploiting a single species local population that is connected by dispersing larvae to an unharvested local population. We define a spatially-explicit population dynamics model and apply dynamic optimization techniques to determine policies for harvesting the exploited patch. We then consider how reservation affects yield and spawning stock abundance when compared to policies that have not recognised the spatial structure of the metapopulation. Comparisons of harvest strategies between an exploited metapopulation with and without a harvest refuge are also made. Results show that in a 2 local population metapopulation with unidirectional larval transfer, the optimal exploitation of the harvested population should be conducted as if it were independent of the reserved population. Numerical examples suggest that relative source populations should be exploited if the objective is to maximise spawning stock abundance within a harvested metapopulation that includes a protected local population. However, this strategy can markedly reduce yield over a sink harvested reserve system and may require strict regulation for conservation goals to be realised. If exchange rates are high, results indicate that spawning stock abundance can be less in a reserve system than in a fully exploited metapopulation. In order to maximise economic gain in the reserve system, results indicate that relative sink populations should be harvested. Depending on transfer levels, loss in harvest through reservation can be minimal, and is likely to be compensated by the potential environmental and economic benefits of the reserve.

Residence time distributions of gas flowing through rotating drum bioreactors

Residence time distribution studies of gas through a rotating drum bioreactor for solid-state fermentation were performed using carbon monoxide as a tracer gas. The exit concentration as a function of time differed considerably from profiles expected for plug flow, plug flow with axial dispersion, and continuous stirred tank reactor (CSTR) models. The data were then fitted by least-squares analysis to mathematical models describing a central plug flow region surrounded by either one dead region (a three-parameter model) or two dead regions (a five-parameter model). Model parameters were the dispersion coefficient in the central plug flow region, the volumes of the dead regions, and the exchange rates between the different regions. The superficial velocity of the gas through the reactor has a large effect on parameter values. Increased superficial velocity tends to decrease dead region volumes, interregion transfer rates, and axial dispersion. The significant deviation from CSTR, plug flow, and plug flow with axial dispersion of the residence time distribution of gas within small-scale reactors can lead to underestimation of the calculation of mass and heat transfer coefficients and hence has implications for reactor design and scaleup. (C) 2001 John Wiley & Sons, Inc.

Stabilization of native protein fold by intein-mediated covalent cyclization

A mutant version of the N-terminal domain of Escherichia coli DnaB helicase was used as a model system to assess the stabilization against unfolding gained by covalent cyclization. Cyclization was achieved in vivo by formation of an amide bond between the N and C termini with the help of a split mini-intein. Linear and circular proteins were constructed to be identical in amino acid sequence. Mutagenesis of Phe102 to Glu rendered the protein monomeric even at high concentration. A difference in free energy of unfolding, DeltaDeltaG, between circular and linear protein of 2.3(+/-0.5) kcal mol(-1) was measured at 10degreesC by circular dichroism. A theoretical estimate of the difference in conformational entropy of linear and circular random chains in a three-dimensional cubic lattice model predicted DeltaDeltaG = 2.3 kcal mol(-1), suggesting that stabilization by protein cyclization is driven by the reduced conformational entropy of the unfolded state. Amide-proton exchange rates measured by NMR spectroscopy and mass spectrometry showed a uniform, approximately tenfold decrease of the exchange rates of the most slowly exchanging amide protons, demonstrating that cyclization globally decreases the unfolding rate of the protein. The amide proton exchange was found to follow EX1 kinetics at near-neutral pH, in agreement with an unusually slow refolding I measured by stopped-flow circular dichroism. rate of less than 4 min(-1) The linear and circular proteins differed more in their unfolding than in their folding rates. Global unfolding of the N-terminal domain of E. coli DnaB is thus promoted strongly by spatial separation of the N and C termini, whereas their proximity is much less important for folding. (C) 2005 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

The Role of Non-Market Valuation in Forest Management and Recreation Policy

Forests, and particularly those where native and mixed species are gown, provide a variety of non-wood values, important among which are recreation and environmental services. Substantial progress has been made in recent years in estimating economic values on these services. A considerable amount of research on forest values has been carried out recently in tropical and sub-tropical eastern Australia, some of which is reported in the following papers. The need for estimates of non-wood forest benefits is apparent, and it is clear that further development of techniques and a greater understanding of the way these values can be integrated into public-sector decision making is required.

The price elasticity of the Euro to movements in foreign reserves through European Central Bank intevention

The Euro has been used as the largest weighting element in a basket of currencies for forex arrangements adopted by several Central European countries outside the European Union (EU). The paper uses a new time-series approach to examine the relationship between the Euro exchange rate and the level of foreign reserves. It employs Zero-no-zero (ZNZ) patterned vector error-correction (VECM) modelling to investigate Granger causal relations among foreign reserves, the European Monetary Union money supply and the Euro exchange rate. The findings confirm that foreign reserves may influence movements in the Euro's exchange rate. Further, ZNZ patterned VECM modelling with exogenous variables is used to estimate the amount of foreign reserves currently required in order to again achieve a targetted Euro exchange rate

Time-resolved spectroscopy of the metal-to-metal charge transfer excited state in dinuclear cyano-bridged mixed-valence complexes

Visible pump-probe spectroscopy has been used to identify and characterize short-lived metal-to-metal charge transfer (MMCT) excited states in a group of cyano-bridged mixed-valence complexes of the formula [(LCoNCMII)-N-III(CN)(5)](-), where L is a pentadentate macrocyclic pentaamine (L-14) or triamine-dithiaether (L-14S) and M is Fe or Ru. Nanosecond pump-probe spectroscopy on frozen solutions of [(LCoNCFeII)-Co-14-N-III(CN)(5)](-) and [(LCoNCFeII)-Co-14S-N-III(CN)(5)](-) at 11 K enabled the construction of difference transient absorption spectra that featured a rise in absorbance in the region of 350-400 nm consistent with the generation of the ferricyanide chromophore of the photoexcited complex. The MMCT excited state of the Ru analogue [(LCoNCRuII)-Co-14-N-III(CN)(5)](-) was too short-lived to allow its detection. Femtosecond pump-probe spectroscopy on aqueous solutions of [(LCoNCFeII)-Co-14-N-III(CN)(5)](-) and [(LCoNCFeII)-Co-14S-N-III(CN)(5)](-) at room temperature enabled the lifetimes of their Co-II-Fe-III MMCT excited states to be determined as 0.8 and 1.3 ps, respectively.