Statistical tests of load-unload response ratio signals by lattice solid model: Implication to tidal triggering and earthquake prediction

Statistical tests of Load-Unload Response Ratio (LURR) signals are carried in order to verify statistical robustness of the previous studies using the Lattice Solid Model (MORA et al., 2002b). In each case 24 groups of samples with the same macroscopic parameters (tidal perturbation amplitude A, period T and tectonic loading rate k) but different particle arrangements are employed. Results of uni-axial compression experiments show that before the normalized time of catastrophic failure, the ensemble average LURR value rises significantly, in agreement with the observations of high LURR prior to the large earthquakes. In shearing tests, two parameters are found to control the correlation between earthquake occurrence and tidal stress. One is, A/(kT) controlling the phase shift between the peak seismicity rate and the peak amplitude of the perturbation stress. With an increase of this parameter, the phase shift is found to decrease. Another parameter, AT/k, controls the height of the probability density function (Pdf) of modeled seismicity. As this parameter increases, the Pdf becomes sharper and narrower, indicating a strong triggering. Statistical studies of LURR signals in shearing tests also suggest that except in strong triggering cases, where LURR cannot be calculated due to poor data in unloading cycles, the larger events are more likely to occur in higher LURR periods than the smaller ones, supporting the LURR hypothesis.

Effectiveness of brown planthopper predators: Population suppression by two species of spider, Pardosa pseudoannulata (Araneae, Lycosidae) and Araneus inustus (Araneae, Araneidae)

The most abundant natural enemies found in Cambodian rice field are spiders, mostly Araneus inustus and Pardosa pseudoannulata. These two hunting and wolf spider, respectively, are believed to actively contribute to brown planthopper (BPH) population control. However, how much each species attacks prey in Cambodian field condition is unknown. We conducted field experiments in Cambodia during the wet season at two locations, a famner's fields at Takeo and at CARDI, using both field cages and natural conditions. Cages were sprayed with insecticide to remove all pre-existing insects in the cages and then washed after 10 days to reduce insecticide residue. Results confirmed BPH inside the cage were killed by the insecticide. A known BPH population was reared inside the cages starting with 3 pairs of adults. Temporary cages were removed after counting second instar BPH and permanent cages were left in place. Spiders were released into the cages for 15 days. In permanent cages either two individual A. inustus or P. pseudoannulata were allowed to feed on BPH prey. Both spider species have the same killing ability in dense prey populations, but predation is higher for Pardosa at low prey density. In uncaged field environments (where more than just BPH prey are available) with a spider/BPH ratio 1:3 to 1:11 BPH mortality was 78–91%. Within 15 days in permanent cages spiders caused 100% BPH mortality at an average predator/prey ratio of 1:5 to 1:14. At a ratio of 1:18 or higher there was some BPH survival in cages.

Why do eastern curlews Numenius madagascariensis feed on prey that lowers intake rate before migration?

Eastern curlews Numenius madagascariensis spending the nonbreeding season in eastern Australia foraged on three intertidal decapods: soldier crab Mictyris longicarpus, sentinel crab Macrophthalmus crassipes and ghost-shrimp Trypaea australiensis. Due to their ecology, these crustaceans were spatially segregated (=distributed in 'patches') and the curlews intermittently consumed more than one prey type. It was predicted that if the curlews behaved as intake rate maximizers, the time spent foraging on a particular prey (patch) would reflect relative availabilities of the prey types and thus prey-specific intake rates would be equal. During the mid-nonbreeding period (November-December), Mictyris and Macrophthalmus were primarily consumed and prey-specific intake rates were statistically indistinguishable (8.8 versus 10.1 kJ x min(-1)). Prior to migration (February), Mictyris and Trypaea were hunted and the respective intake rates were significantly different (8.9 versus 2.3 kJ x min(-1)). Time allocation to Trypaea-hunting was independent of the availability of Mictyris. Thus, consumption of Trypaea depressed the overall intake rate. Six hypotheses for consuming Trypaea before migration were examined. Five hypotheses: the possible error by the predator, prey specialization, observer overestimation of time spent hunting Trypaea, supplementary prey and the choice of higher quality prey due to a digestive bottleneck, were deemed unsatisfactory. The explanation for consumption of a low intake-rate but high quality prey (Trypaea) deemed plausible was diet optimisation by the Curlews in response to the pre-migratory modulation (decrease in size/processing capacity) of their digestive system. With a seasonal decrease in the average intake rate, the estimated intake per low tide increased from 1233 to 1508 kJ between the mid-nonbreeding and pre-migratory periods by increasing the overall time spent on the sandflats and the proportion of time spent foraging.

Predator-induced phenotypic plasticity in tadpoles: extension or innovation?

Phenotypic plasticity, the ability of a trait to change as a function of the environment, is central to many ideas in evolutionary biology. A special case of phenotypic plasticity observed in many organisms is mediated by their natural predators. Here, we used a predator-prey system of dragonfly larvae and tadpoles to determine if predator-mediated phenotypic plasticity provides a novel way of surviving in the presence of predators (an innovation) or if it represents a simple extension of the way noninduced tadpoles survive predation. Tadpoles of Limnodynastes peronii were raised in the presence and absence of predation, which then entered a survival experiment. Induced morphological traits, primarily tail height and tail muscle height, were found to be under selection, indicating that predator-mediated phenotypic plasticity may be adaptive. Although predator-induced animals survived better, the multivariate linear selection gradients were similar between the two tadpole groups, suggesting that predator-mediated phenotypic plasticity is an extension of existing survival strategies. In addition, nonlinear selection gradients indicated a cost of predator-induced plasticity that may limit the ability of phenotypic plasticity to enhance survival in the presence of predators.

Ecological factors associated with the breeding and migratory phenology of high-latitude breeding western sandpipers

Environmental conditions influence the breeding and migratory patterns of many avian species and may have particularly dramatic effects on long-distance migrants that breed at northern latitudes. Environment, however, is only one of the ecological variables affecting avian phenology, and recent work shows that migration tactics may be strongly affected by changes in predator populations. We used long-term data from 1978 to 2000 to examine the interactions between snowmelt in western Alaska in relation to the breeding or migration phenologies of small shorebirds and their raptor predators. Although the sandpipers' time of arrival at Alaskan breeding sites corresponded with mean snowmelt, late snowmelts did delay breeding. These delays, however, did not persist to southward migration through British Columbia, likely due to the birds' ability to compensate for variance in the length of the breeding season. Raptor phenology at an early stopover site in British Columbia was strongly related to snowmelt, so that in years of early snowmelt falcons appeared earlier during the sandpipers' southbound migration. These differential effects indicate that earlier snowmelt due to climate change may alter the ecological dynamics of the predator-prey system.

Intake rates and the functional response in shorebirds (Charadriiformes) eating macro-invertebrates

As field determinations take much effort, it would be useful to be able to predict easily the coefficients describing the functional response of free-living predators, the function relating food intake rate to the abundance of food organisms in the environment. As a means easily to parameterise an individual-based model of shorebird Charadriiformes populations, we attempted this for shorebirds eating macro-invertebrates. Intake rate is measured as the ash-free dry mass (AFDM) per second of active foraging; i.e. excluding time spent on digestive pauses and other activities, such as preening. The present and previous studies show that the general shape of the functional response in shorebirds eating approximately the same size of prey across the full range of prey density is a decelerating rise to a plateau, thus approximating the Holling type 11 ('disc equation') formulation. But field studies confirmed that the asymptote was not set by handling time, as assumed by the disc equation, because only about half the foraging time was spent in successfully or unsuccessfully attacking and handling prey, the rest being devoted to searching. A review of 30 functional responses showed that intake rate in free-living shorebirds varied independently of prey density over a wide range, with the asymptote being reached at very low prey densities (< 150/m(-2)). Accordingly, most of the many studies of shorebird intake rate have probably been conducted at or near the asymptote of the functional response, suggesting that equations that predict intake rate should also predict the asymptote. A multivariate analysis of 468 'spot' estimates of intake rates from 26 shorebirds identified ten variables, representing prey and shorebird characteristics, that accounted for 81 % of the variance in logarithm-transformed intake rate. But four-variables accounted for almost as much (77.3 %), these being bird size, prey size, whether the bird was an oystercatcher Haematopus ostralegus eating mussels Mytilus edulis, or breeding. The four variable equation under-predicted, on average, the observed 30 estimates of the asymptote by 11.6%, but this discrepancy was reduced to 0.2% when two suspect estimates from one early study in the 1960s were removed. The equation therefore predicted the observed asymptote very successfully in 93 % of cases. We conclude that the asymptote can be reliably predicted from just four easily measured variables. Indeed, if the birds are not breeding and are not oystercatchers eating mussels, reliable predictions can be obtained using just two variables, bird and prey sizes. A multivariate analysis of 23 estimates of the half-asymptote constant suggested they were smaller when prey were small but greater when the birds were large, especially in oystercatchers. The resulting equation could be used to predict the half-asymptote constant, but its predictive power has yet to be tested. As well as predicting the asymptote of the functional response, the equations will enable research workers engaged in many areas of shorebird ecology and behaviour to estimate intake rate without the need for conventional time-consuming field studies, including species for which it has not yet proved possible to measure intake rate in the field.

An evaluation of the evidence for linkages between mangroves and fisheries: A synthesis of the literature and identification of research directions

There is a widely held paradigm that mangroves are critical for sustaining production in coastal fisheries through their role as important nursery areas for fisheries species. This paradigm frequently forms the basis for important management decisions on habitat conservation and restoration of mangroves and other coastal wetlands. This paper reviews the current status of the paradigm and synthesises the information on the processes underlying these potential links. In the past, the paradigm has been supported by studies identifying correlations between the areal and linear extent of mangroves and fisheries catch. This paper goes beyond the correlative approach to develop a new framework on which future evaluations can be based. First, the review identifies what type of marine animals are using mangroves and at what life stages. These species can be categorised as estuarine residents, marine-estuarine species and marine stragglers. The marine-estuarine category includes many commercial species that use mangrove habitats as nurseries. The second stage is to determine why these species are using mangroves as nurseries. The three main proposals are that mangroves provide a refuge from predators, high levels of nutrients and shelter from physical disturbances. The recognition of the important attributes of mangrove nurseries then allows an evaluation of how changes in mangroves will affect the associated fauna. Surprisingly few studies have addressed this question. Consequently, it is difficult to predict how changes in any of these mangrove attributes would affect the faunal communities within them and, ultimately, influence the fisheries associated with them. From the information available, it seems likely that reductions in mangrove habitat complexity would reduce the biodiversity and abundance of the associated fauna, and these changes have the potential to cause cascading effects at higher trophic levels with possible consequences for fisheries. Finally, there is a discussion of the data that are currently available on mangrove distribution and fisheries catch, the limitations of these data and how best to use the data to understand mangrove-fisheries links and, ultimately, to optimise habitat and fisheries management. Examples are drawn from two relatively data-rich regions, Moreton Bay (Australia) and Western Peninsular Malaysia, to illustrate the data needs and research requirements for investigating the mangrove-fisheries paradigm. Having reliable and accurate data at appropriate spatial and temporal scales is crucial for mangrove-fisheries investigations. Recommendations are made for improvements to data collection methods that would meet these important criteria. This review provides a framework on which to base future investigations of mangrove-fisheries links, based on an understanding of the underlying processes and the need for rigorous data collection. Without this information, the understanding of the relationship between mangroves and fisheries will remain limited. Future investigations of mangrove-fisheries links must take this into account in order to have a good ecological basis and to provide better information and understanding to both fisheries and conservation managers.

Searching behaviour and diet of Oystercatcher Haematopus ostralegus pairs feeding in their territories

Search path, searching behaviour and diet of pairs of Oystercatchers feeding in mudflat territories were studied during spring. females ate Nereis, Mya, small unidentified prey, probably Corophium, and a few Macoma, whereas males primarily ate Macoma. Even when female and male foraged in the same site, they often caught different prey. The combination of 'The Search-rate/Detection Model' (Gendron & Staddon 1983) and 'The Harvestable Prey Model' (Zwarts & Wanink 1993) provide the theoretical framework in which to explain these differences in diet. Macoma are thought to be more cryptic than Nereis, Mya and Corophium. Therefore females, while searching at a faster rate than their respective mates, caught far fewer cryptic prey, but a greater number of more conspicuous prey than their mates. On the basis of distances moved before and after capturing prey, males exhibited area-restricted searching for Macoma and Corophium. In contrast, females did not exhibit any area-restricted searching. it is suggested that the distribution of Macoma and Corophium available to males searching slowly was more clumped than that of these two prey species available to females searching more quickly.

Sustained high levels of foliar herbivory of the mangrove Rhizophora stylosa by a moth larva Doratifera stenosa (Limacodidae) in north-eastern Australia

The moth larva, Doratifera stenosa (Lepidoptera: Limacodidae), was observed feeding voraciously in great numbers on mature leaves of Rhizophora stylosa in mangroves at Port Curtis in Central Queensland, NE Australia. This behaviour was considered unusual since mangroves, and the Rhizophora species in particular, reportedly harbour few herbivores and have relatively low levels of herbivory, less than 10%. During a two year period (1996-1998), larvae were observed consuming around 30-40% of leaves in the canopy each year, and the mangroves appeared able to sustain these high levels of herbivory. The impact on trees was assessed in conjunction with a study of the herbivore, its behaviour and life history, in an attempt to explain the occurrence. Larvae were 1-2 cm in length, bright green and gregarious, with numerous small, stinging hairs along their upper bodies. Feeding was in small cohort groups of 5-70 individuals that broke up immediately prior to each moult after which they regrouped in much larger numbers of mixed cohorts to form single-file processions across branches, stems and prop roots. In this way, they moved to neighbouring trees with less affected foliage. One of the outstanding characteristics of this herbivore was its ability to desist from killing host trees although it appeared quite capable of doing so had it remained on individual trees. By moving from tree to tree, the herbivore was able to heavily crop Rhizophora foliage in an apparently sustainable manner. These findings demonstrate the role and importance of foliar herbivory in severely affected forests and how such instances best not be ignored or treated as curiosities in future assessments of herbivory and forest turnover in mangrove ecosystems.

Development of a more efficient classifying cyclone

A more efficient classifying cyclone (CC) for fine particle classification has been developed in recent years at the JKMRC. The novel CC, known as the JKCC, has modified profiles of the cyclone body, vortex finder, and spigot when compared to conventional hydrocyclones. The novel design increases the centrifugal force inside the cyclone and mitigates the short circuiting flow that exists in all current cyclones. It also decreases the probability of particle contamination in the place near the cyclone spigot. Consequently the cyclone efficiency is improved while the unit maintains a simple structure. An international patent has been granted for this novel cyclone design. In the first development stage-a feasibility study-a 100 mm JKCC was tested and compared with two 100 min commercial units. Very encouraging results were achieved, indicating good potential for the novel design. In the second development stage-a scale-up stage-the JKCC was scaled up to 200 mm in diameter, and its geometry was optimized through numerous tests. The performance of the JKCC was compared with a 150 nun commercial unit and exhibited sharper separation, finer separation size, and lower flow ratios. The JKCC is now being scaled up into a fill-size (480 mm) hydrocyclone in the third development stage-an industrial study. The 480 mm diameter unit will be tested in an Australian coal preparation plant, and directly compared with a commercial CC operating under the same conditions. Classifying cyclone performance for fine coal could be further improved if the unit is installed in an inclined position. The study using the 200 mm JKCC has revealed that sharpness of separation improved and the flow ratio to underflow was decreased by 43% as the cyclone inclination was varied from the vertical position (0degrees) to the horizontal position (90degrees). The separation size was not affected, although the feed rate was slightly decreased. To ensure self-emptying upon shutdown, it is recommended that the JKCC be installed at an inclination of 75-80degrees. At this angle the cyclone performance is very similar to that at a horizontal position. Similar findings have been derived from the testing of a conventional hydrocyclone. This may be of benefit to operations that require improved performance from their classifying cyclones in terms of sharpness of separation and flow ratio, while tolerating slightly reduced feed rate.

Detecting finite bandwidth periodic signals in stationary noise using the signal coherence spectrum

All signals that appear to be periodic have some sort of variability from period to period regardless of how stable they appear to be in a data plot. A true sinusoidal time series is a deterministic function of time that never changes and thus has zero bandwidth around the sinusoid's frequency. A zero bandwidth is impossible in nature since all signals have some intrinsic variability over time. Deterministic sinusoids are used to model cycles as a mathematical convenience. Hinich [IEEE J. Oceanic Eng. 25 (2) (2000) 256-261] introduced a parametric statistical model, called the randomly modulated periodicity (RMP) that allows one to capture the intrinsic variability of a cycle. As with a deterministic periodic signal the RMP can have a number of harmonics. The likelihood ratio test for this model when the amplitudes and phases are known is given in [M.J. Hinich, Signal Processing 83 (2003) 1349-13521. A method for detecting a RMP whose amplitudes and phases are unknown random process plus a stationary noise process is addressed in this paper. The only assumption on the additive noise is that it has finite dependence and finite moments. Using simulations based on a simple RMP model we show a case where the new method can detect the signal when the signal is not detectable in a standard waterfall spectrograrn display. (c) 2005 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Endoparasite communities of five fish species (Labridae : Cheilininae) from Lizard Island: how important is the ecology and phylogeny of the hosts?

The parasite community of animals is generally influenced by host physiology, ecology, and phylogeny. Therefore, sympatric and phylogenetically related hosts with similar ecologies should have similar parasite communities. To test this hypothesis we surveyed the endoparasites of 5 closely related cheilinine fishes (Labridae) from the Great Barrier Reef. They were Cheilinus chlorounts, C. trilobatus, C. fasciatils, Epibulus insidiator and OxYcheilinus diagrainnia. VVe examined the relationship between parasitological variables (richness, abundance and diversity) and host characteristics (bodv weight, diet and phuylogeny). The 5 fishes had 31 parasite species with 9-18 parasite species per fish species. Cestode larvae (mostly Tetraphyllidea) were the most abundant and prevalent parasites followed by nematodes and digeneans. Parasites, body size and diet of hosts differed between fish species. In general, body weight, diet and host phylogeny each explained some of the variation in richness and composition of parasites among the fishes. The 2 most closely related species, Cheilinus chlorourus and C. trilobatus, had broadly similar parasites but the Other fish species differed significantly in all variables. However, there was no all -encompassing pattern. This may, be because different lineages of parasites may react differently to ecological variables. We also argue that adult parasites may respond principally to host diet. In contrast, larval parasite composition may respond both to host diet and predator-prey interactions because this is the path by which many, parasites complete their life-cycles. Finally, variation in parasite phylogeny and parasite life-cycles among hosts likely increase the complexity of the system making it difficult to find all-encompassing patterns between host characteristics and parasites, particularly when all the species in rich parasite communities are considered.

Do predators aggregate in response to pest density in agroecosystems? Assessing within-field spatial patterns

1. The spatial heterogeneity of predator populations is an important component of ecological theories pertaining to predator-prey dynamics. Most studies within agricultural fields show spatial correlation (positive or negative) between mean predator numbers and prey abundance across a whole field over time but generally ignore the within-field spatial dimension. We used explicit spatial mapping to determine if generalist predators aggregated within a soybean field, the size of these aggregations and if predator aggregation was associated with pest aggregation, plant damage and predation rate. 2. The study was conducted at Gatton in the Lockyer Valley, 90 km west of Brisbane, Australia. Intensive sampling grids were used to investigate within-field spatial patterns. The first row of each grid was located in a lucerne field (10 m from interface) and the remaining rows were in an adjacent soybean field. At each point on the grid the abundance of foliage-dwelling and ground-dwelling pests and predators was measured, predation rates [using sentinel Helicoverpa armigera (Hubner) egg cards] and plant damage were estimated. Eight grids were sampled across two summer cropping seasons (2000/01, 2001/02). 3. Predators exhibited strong spatial patterning with regions of high and low abundance and activity within what are considered to be uniform soybean fields. Ground-dwelling and foliage-dwelling predators were often aggregated in patches approximately 40 m across. 4. Lycosidae (wolf spiders) displayed aggregation and were consistently more abundant within the lucerne, with a decreasing trap catch with distance from the lucrene/soybean interface. This trend was consistent between subsequent grids in a single field and between fields. 5. The large amount of spatial variability in within-field arthropod abundance (pests and predators) and activity (egg predation and plant damage) indicates that whole field averages were misleading. This result has serious implications for sampling of arthropod abundance and pest management decision-making based on scouting data. 6. There was a great deal of temporal change in the significant spatial patterns observed within a field at each sampling time point during a single season. Predator and pest aggregations observed in these fields were generally not stable for the entire season. 7. Predator aggregation did not correlate consistently with pest aggregation, plant damage or predation rate. Spatial patterns in predator abundance were not associated consistently with any single parameter measured. The most consistent positive association was between foliage-dwelling predators and pests (significant in four of seven grids). Inferring associations between predators and prey based on an intensive one-off sampling grid is difficult, due to the temporal variability in the abundance of each group. 8. Synthesis and applications. This study demonstrated that generalist predator populations are rarely distributed randomly and field edges and adjacent crops can have an influence on within-field predator abundance. This must be considered when estimating arthropod (pest and predator) abundance from a set of samples taken at random locations within a field.