Adaptive stepsize based on control theory for stochastic differential equations

The numerical solution of stochastic differential equations (SDEs) has been focussed recently on the development of numerical methods with good stability and order properties. These numerical implementations have been made with fixed stepsize, but there are many situations when a fixed stepsize is not appropriate. In the numerical solution of ordinary differential equations, much work has been carried out on developing robust implementation techniques using variable stepsize. It has been necessary, in the deterministic case, to consider the best choice for an initial stepsize, as well as developing effective strategies for stepsize control-the same, of course, must be carried out in the stochastic case. In this paper, proportional integral (PI) control is applied to a variable stepsize implementation of an embedded pair of stochastic Runge-Kutta methods used to obtain numerical solutions of nonstiff SDEs. For stiff SDEs, the embedded pair of the balanced Milstein and balanced implicit method is implemented in variable stepsize mode using a predictive controller for the stepsize change. The extension of these stepsize controllers from a digital filter theory point of view via PI with derivative (PID) control will also be implemented. The implementations show the improvement in efficiency that can be attained when using these control theory approaches compared with the regular stepsize change strategy. (C) 2004 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Hospital-based case-control study of bronchiectasis in indigenous children in central Australia

Background: Childhood pneumonia has been reported to be associated with the development of bronchiectasis but there are no case-control studies that have examined this. This study examined the relationship between hospital admission for episode(s) of pneumonia and the risk of radiologically proven bronchiectasis. Methods: A medical record-based case-control study of bronchiectasis in Indigenous children was conducted in Central Australia. Controls (183), matched to cases (61) by gender, age and year of diagnosis, were Indigenous children hospitalized with other conditions. Results: There was a strong association between a history of hospitalized pneumonia and bronchiectasis [odds ratio (OR), 15.2; 95% confidence interval (95% CI) 4.4-52.7]. This was particularly evident in recurrent hospitalized pneumonia (P for trend < 0.01), severe pneumonia episodes with longer hospital stay (P for trend < 0.01), presence of atelectasis (OR 11.9; 95% CI 3.1-45.9) and requirement for oxygen (P for trend < 0.01). The overall number of pneumonia episodes, rather than its site, was associated with bronchiectasis. Although the total number of pneumonia episodes in the first year of life did not increase the risk of bronchiectasis, more severe episodes early in life did. Malnutrition, premature birth and being small for gestational age were more common findings among cases. Breast-feeding appeared to be a protective factor (OR 0.2; 95% CI 0.1-0.7). Conclusions: Although we cannot fully answer the question of why bronchiectasis is much more common in Indigenous children, we have provided strong evidence of an association between bronchiectasis and severe and recurrent pneumonia episodes in infancy and childhood.

Migraine and risk of subarachnoid haemorrhage: a population-based case-control study

Objective. Evidence exists for an association between migraine and ischaemic stroke, but there is uncertainty about whether migraine is a risk factor for subarachnoid haemorrhage (SAH). Methods. A multi-centre, population-based, case-control study using cases of first-ever SAH during 1995-98 and matched controls in four study centres in Australia and New Zealand. Self- or proxy-reported history, frequency and characteristics of headaches, classified according to 1988 International Headache Society diagnostic criteria. Results. 206 of 432 (48%) cases and 236 of 473 (50%) controls had a history of headaches. The frequency and characteristics of headaches were similar between the two groups. No association was found in logistic regression analyses for history or frequency of headaches, or migraine headaches. Conclusions. No evidence was found for an association between recurrent headaches and SAH. Such information is important for counselling patients and families about the significance of past and ongoing headaches in relation to this illness. (c) 2005 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Plant-based immunocontraceptive control of wildlife - "potentials, limitations, and possums"

Possums (Trichosurus vulpecula), originally introduced from Australia, are spread over 90% of New Zealand and cause major economic and environmental damage. Immunocontraception has been suggested as a humane means to control them. Marsupial-specific reproductive antigens expressed at high levels in edible transgenic plant tissue might provide a safe, effective, and cheap oral delivery bait for immuno-contraceptive control. As proof of concept, female possums vaccinated with immunocontraceptive antigens showed reduced fertility, and possums fed with potato-expressed heat labile toxin-B (LT-B) had mucosal and systemic immune responses to the antigen. This demonstrated that immunocontraception was effective in possums and that oral delivery in edible plant material might be possible. Nuclear transformation with reporter genes showed that transgenic carrot roots accumulate high levels of foreign protein in edible tissues, indicating their potential as a delivery vector. However, prior to attempts at large scale production, more effective immunocontraceptive antigen-adjuvant formulations are probably required before plant-based immunocontraception can become a major tool for immunocontraceptive control of overabundant vertebrate pests. (c) 2004 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Health-protective behaviours and risk of fall-related hip fractures: a population-based case-control study

Background: fall-related hip fractures are one of the most common causes of disability and mortality in older age. The study aimed to quantify the relationship between lifestyle behaviours and the risk of fall-related hip fracture in community-dwelling older people. The purpose was to contribute evidence for the promotion of healthy ageing as a population-based intervention for falls injury prevention. Methods: a case-control study was conducted with 387 participants, with a case-control ratio of 1:2. Incident cases of fall-related hip fracture in people aged 65 and over were recruited from six hospital sites in Brisbane, Australia, in 2003-04. Community-based controls, matched by age, sex and postcode, were recruited via electoral roll sampling. A questionnaire designed to assess lifestyle risk factors, identified as determinants of healthy ageing, was administered at face-to-face interviews. Results: behavioural factors which had a significant independent protective effect on the risk of hip fracture included never smoking [adjusted odds ratio (AOR): 0.33 (0.12-0.88)], moderate alcohol consumption in mid- and older age [AOR: 0.49 (0.25-0.95)], not losing weight between mid- and older age [AOR: 0.36 (0.20-0.65)], playing sport in older age [AOR: 0.49 (0.29-0.83)] and practising a greater number of preventive medical care [AOR: 0.54 (0.32-0.94)] and self-health behaviours [AOR: 0.56 (0.33-0.94)]. Conclusion: with universal exposures, clear associations and modifiable behavioural factors, this study has contributed evidence to reduce the major public health burden of fall-related hip fractures using readily implemented population-based healthy ageing strategies.

Prostaglandins are important in thermoregulation of a reptile (Pogona vitticeps)

The effectiveness of behavioural thermoregulation in reptiles is amplified by cardiovascular responses, particularly by differential rates of heart beat in response to heating and cooling (heart-rate hysteresis). Heart-rate hysteresis is ecologically important in most lineages of ectothermic reptile' and we demonstrate that heart-rate hysteresis in the lizard Pogona vitticeps is mediated by prostaglandins. In a control treatment (administration of saline), heart rates during heating were significantly faster than during cooling at any given body temperature. When cyclooxygenase 1 and 2 enzymes were inhibited, heart rates during heating were not significantly different from those during cooling. Administration of agonists showed that thromboxane B-2 did not have a significant effect on heart rate, but prostacyclin and prostaglandin F-2alpha caused a significant increase (3.5 and 13.6 beats min(-1), respectively) in heart rate compared with control treatments. We speculate that heart-rate hysteresis evolved as a thermoregulatory mechanism that may ultimately be controlled by neurally induced stimulation of nitric oxide production, or maybe via photolytically induced production of vitamin D.

A unique behavior of sub-critical hydrocarbon permeability in activated carbon at low pressures

In our study on sub-critical hydrocarbon permeation in activated carbon, a minimum in the total permeability (B-T) at low pressure has been observed for only long-chain hydrocarbons such as n-hexane and n-heptane. Such an observation suggests that the minimum appearance depends on the properties of permeating vapors as well as the porous medium. In this paper a permeation model is presented to explain the minimum behavior with the allowance of the collision-reflection factor in the Knudsen diffusivity to be a function of surface loading. Surface diffusion was found to be very significant compared to other transport mechanisms such as Knudsen diffusion and gaseous viscous flow at low pressures. Since the gaseous viscous flow contributes negligibly to the B, at low pressures, the minimum appearance in the B, is mainly attributed to the interplay between Knudsen diffusion and surface diffusion. Also, the molecular structure of adsorbates plays an important role in the minimum appearance.

Self-reported difficulty in conceiving as a measure of infertility

BACKGROUND: This study aimed to explore the meaning and potential use of women's self-reported difficulties in conceiving as a measure of infertility in epidemiological studies, and to compare women's stated reasons for infertility with information in their medical records. METHODS: Data were available from a population-based case-control study of ovarian cancer involving 1638 women. The sensitivity and specificity of women's self-reported infertility were calculated against their estimated fertility status based on detailed reproductive histories. Self-reported reasons for infertility were compared with diagnoses documented in women's medical records. RESULTS: The sensitivity of women's self-reported difficulty in conceiving was 66 and 69% respectively when compared with calendar-derived and self-reported times taken trying to conceive; its specificity was 95%. Forty-one (23%) of the 179 women for whom medical records were available had their self-reported fertility problem confirmed. Self-reported infertility causes could be compared with diagnoses in medical records for only 22 of these women. CONCLUSIONS: Self-reported difficulty conceiving is a useful measure of infertility for quantifying the burden of fertility problems experienced in the community. Validation of reasons for infertility is unlikely to be feasible through examination of medical records. Improved education of the public regarding the availability and success rates of infertility treatments is proposed.

Interactions among smoking, obesity, and symptoms of acid reflux in Barrett's esophagus

Background: Barrett's esophagus, a metaplastic precursor to esophageal adenocarcinoma, is becoming increasingly prevalent in many populations. Clinical studies suggest acid reflux causes Barrett's esophagus; however, no population-based estimates of risk have been reported, and the role of other health factors in modifying risk is unclear. Methods: We conducted a population-based case-control study in Brisbane, Australia. Cases were 167 patients with histologically confirmed Barrett's esophagus diagnosed between February and December 2003. Age-matched and sex-matched controls (n = 261) were randomly selected from a population register. Data on exposure to self-reported symptoms of acid reflux, smoking, obesity, and other factors were collected through self-completed questionnaires followed by telephone interview. Risks of Barrett's esophagus and Barrett's esophagus with dysplasia associated with these exposures were estimated by the odds ratio (OR) and 95% confidence interval (95% Cl), both crude and adjusted for other factors. Results: Self-reported weekly episodes of acid reflux were associated with greatly increased risks of Barrett's esophagus (adjusted OR, 29.7; 95% CI, 12.2-72.6) and Barrett's esophagus with dysplasia (OR, 59.7; 95% CI, 18.5-193). Smoking was also associated with risk of Barrett's esophagus. We found evidence of interactions between symptoms of acid reflux and smoking and obesity. Obese people with self-reported symptoms of acid reflux had markedly higher risks of Barrett's esophagus (OR, 34.4; 95% CI, 6.3-188) than people with reflux alone (OR, 9.3; 95% CI, 1.4-62.2) or obesity alone (OR, 0.7,95% CI, 0.2-2.4). Similarly, those reporting both acid reflux symptoms and smoking were at substantially higher risks of Barrett's esophagus (OR, 51.4; 95% CI, 14.1-188) than those reporting acid reflux or smoking alone. Conclusions: Although history of symptoms of acid reflux is the principle factor associated with Barrett's esophagus, risks are substantially increased by obesity and smoking.

Genetic assignment methods for the direct, real-time estimation of migration rate: a simulation-based exploration of accuracy and power

Genetic assignment methods use genotype likelihoods to draw inference about where individuals were or were not born, potentially allowing direct, real-time estimates of dispersal. We used simulated data sets to test the power and accuracy of Monte Carlo resampling methods in generating statistical thresholds for identifying F-0 immigrants in populations with ongoing gene flow, and hence for providing direct, real-time estimates of migration rates. The identification of accurate critical values required that resampling methods preserved the linkage disequilibrium deriving from recent generations of immigrants and reflected the sampling variance present in the data set being analysed. A novel Monte Carlo resampling method taking into account these aspects was proposed and its efficiency was evaluated. Power and error were relatively insensitive to the frequency assumed for missing alleles. Power to identify F-0 immigrants was improved by using large sample size (up to about 50 individuals) and by sampling all populations from which migrants may have originated. A combination of plotting genotype likelihoods and calculating mean genotype likelihood ratios (D-LR) appeared to be an effective way to predict whether F-0 immigrants could be identified for a particular pair of populations using a given set of markers.

Optimal control and operation of drum granulation processes

Process optimisation and optimal control of batch and continuous drum granulation processes are studied in this paper. The main focus of the current research has been: (i) construction of optimisation and control relevant, population balance models through the incorporation of moisture content, drum rotation rate and bed depth into the coalescence kernels; (ii) investigation of optimal operational conditions using constrained optimisation techniques; (iii) development of optimal control algorithms based on discretized population balance equations; and (iv) comprehensive simulation studies on optimal control of both batch and continuous granulation processes. The objective of steady state optimisation is to minimise the recycle rate with minimum cost for continuous processes. It has been identified that the drum rotation-rate, bed depth (material charge), and moisture content of solids are practical decision (design) parameters for system optimisation. The objective for the optimal control of batch granulation processes is to maximize the mass of product-sized particles with minimum time and binder consumption. The objective for the optimal control of the continuous process is to drive the process from one steady state to another in a minimum time with minimum binder consumption, which is also known as the state-driving problem. It has been known for some time that the binder spray-rate is the most effective control (manipulative) variable. Although other possible manipulative variables, such as feed flow-rate and additional powder flow-rate have been investigated in the complete research project, only the single input problem with the binder spray rate as the manipulative variable is addressed in the paper to demonstrate the methodology. It can be shown from simulation results that the proposed models are suitable for control and optimisation studies, and the optimisation algorithms connected with either steady state or dynamic models are successful for the determination of optimal operational conditions and dynamic trajectories with good convergence properties. (c) 2005 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.